Author Archives: bankelele

Embraer Woos Africa

Fresh from the Farnborough air show, Embraer embarked on an African tour to showcase their planes in what they see as an under-served air market on the African continent.

The company flew an Embraer E190 E2 jet with a unique shark-nose look (nick-named “profit-hunter”) to Algiers (home of Air Algerie)  and Casablanca (Royal Air Maroc), then on to Accra and NairobiKenya Airways (KQ), which is the largest Embraer E-jet operator in Africa and also hosts one of the few approved E190 services centres in Africa, staged an event that featured local aviation officials, KQ customers and the Brazilian Ambassador to Kenya that ended with demonstration flight that over Mt. Kilimanjaro, Africa’s highest point. 

Embraer were keen to showcase the quiet-ness and efficiency of the E190 which they bill as the best single-aisle aircraft. They view Africa as an under-served aviation market in which 95% of flights have less than 150 passengers and 61% of routes have less than one flight per day, with many potential new routes being 4-5 hour flights, that are beyond the operational reach of propeller planes and with their E-jets as just the right size for African airlines. 

Kenya Airways has been flying Embraer’s since 2006. They stared with the smaller E170 and upgraded to the E190’s which now form a third of their lean fleet; they have 15 of them – 10 are owned, 5 on lease  – and they seat 12 passengers in business class and 84 in economy. But it is unlikely that Kenya Airways that is emerging from a long restructuring process will be buying any more planes soon, but other things are happening and at Farnborough, Embraer and KQ announced a new spare parts supply deal.

After Nairobi, the E2 jet flew on to Mauritius where Air Mauritius is tipped to be a potential customer and they planned to continue on to South Africa where Embraer has a training centre and a regional office for Middle-East and Africa.

EABL: Beer, Taxes, Innovations, Tanzania.

EABL released their financial results for their 2018 year to June this week. It was a tale of two halves with flat growth in the first half of the year which coincided with Kenya ’s prolonged electioneering period and which affected sales of its products such as Senator lager, an affordable beer brand.  But the second half of the year (January to June 2018) saw a more business-friendly environment and more money in consumers pockets.

EABL ended the year with 5% revenue growth to Kshs 73.5 billion and the star of the show for the company in 2017 was Tanzania which saw 41% growth, mainly driven by Serengeti Lite beer. Also, special innovations that contributed 22% to the results is one of the best performances in the world. At EABL, Tanzania’ grew to account for 11% of revenue while Kenya’s was 73%, and Uganda was at 16%.  Capital expenditure was Kshs 13 billion, up from the 5 billion the year before and Kshs 7.8 billion was due to the Kisumu plant which is expected to be opened later in 2018. While overall profit before tax for EABL was Kshs 11.7 billion, a decline of 12% from the year, the company will pay out the same Kshs 7.50 per share dividend to shareholders.

The EABL managers spoke of innovating to reach the 1 million consumers who attain the legal drinking age (18) every year in Kenya – and investment in existing brands, and rolling out new brands to win over changing customers tastes. They also made some excise tax savings in Uganda by moving some  Tusker and Guinness production there while in Kenya, EABL’s profit was weighed down by a Kshs 2 billion one-off provision for taxes that significantly reduced their final result. They said a stable tax environment would enable the company to generate more taxes for governments without causing consumers to pay more.  

Also that by doing more local production of beer and spirits at Ruaraka in Nairobi, at Tanzania, Uganda and soon at the new line at Kisumu has allowed them to bring global brands into countries and produce and offer them at local prices. In the 2019 financial year, they will commercialise the Kisumu brewery which will also benefit 15,000 farmers and generate over 100,000 direct and indirect jobs in the production and distribution chain of Senator beer from Kisumu.

Urban Inflation Index July 2018

The running urban inflation Index compares prices of common goods In Nairobi to what they cost one year ago, five years and ten years ago when the index started.
The  July 2018 index comes at a time when there are sensational headlines about quality and counterfeits that was triggered by the drought of 2017 and subsequent importation of foods including sugar late last year.

It has also tricked into crackdowns, indictments, arrests, and parallel investigations by the Police, tax authorities,  parliamentary committees and food safety regulators that has seen queries about tons of goods including sugar, fertilizer, animal feed, building materials, alcoholic spirits, (refilled) LPG gas, auto spares, and sports shoes among other common items – with confiscations at the Mombasa Port, airports like Eldoret and bazaars and shops in Nairobi which have resulted in some demonstrations by business traders.

On to the index.

More expensive

Staple Food: A 2 Kg pack of Unga is Kshs 98 today. Last year, it was at a government-subsidized price of Kshs 90. In 2013 it was 104, and ten years ago, an Unga pack was Kshs 73.

Beer/Entertainment: A bottle of Tusker beer is Kshs 230 at the local pub. Five years ago a beer was 200, and ten years ago a beer was Kshs 130. Just a few months ago, during a tour of Kenya Breweries, the managers said that, based on the recommended retail price of Kshs 140 for a bottle of Tusker, Kshs 84 was tax, Kshs 23 goes to the distribution chain and just Kshs 33 was for them as a company to produce the beer at profit and to pay its shareholders.

Domestic electricity pricing over ten years of the inflation index.

Electricity: A chart of domestic prepaid electricity purchases shows that electricity was at its lowest in May 2015, and its highest in July 2015 and now in July 2018. One observation is that pre-paid power purchases no longer fluctuate. At the beginning of the month, one used to get 40 or even 50 units for Kshs 500 ($5), but now that amount only realizes 22 units and the pre-paid meters issue a (low-token )beep warning the whole month – and power tokens seems to exhaust a lot faster (because the units are less initially)

Other Food Item: Mumias, which used to be part of the index, was Kenya’s sugar industry bellwether – a diversified company that also produced ethanol and electricity and whose shares were once offered to the new investors at Kshs 49 per share. but which now trades at less than a shilling (Kshs 0.70) today. But Mumias now has no stocks on supermarket shelves as production was halted due to a lack of cane and long pending bills owed to farmers. A  2 kg pack of Mara, a competing sugar brand, is Kshs 298. A year ago, a bag of Chemelil sugar was 290, and five years ago Mumias sugar was 250, while ten years ago, a Mumias pack cost Kshs 145.

About the same

Fuel: Earlier this month, the ERC raised the price of petrol by 3 shillings – so in Nairobi a litre of petrol now costs Kshs 112.2 (approximately $5 per gallon). Last year a litre of petrol was Kshs 97.1, five years ago it was Kshs 109.52, and ten years ago it was Kshs 101.50 per litre. But from September 1 2018, Value Added Tax (VAT) which is 16% is expected to be added back to the cost of fuel.

Finance: Bank loans are 14.%, and have remained so ever since the introduction of interest capping in 2016. But the law is set to be adjusted this year by the government, in spite of opposition from parliamentarians who had passed the cap law. Also, average bank rates were 17% in July 2013.

Communication: Not much has changed in terms of phone rates over the last few years. At Safaricom which had (March) 2018 revenue of Kshs 224 billion, 40% of that was from voice, 28% from payments (such as M-Pesa), and 16% from data while SMS accounted for 8% of revenue. The cost of making mobile payments went up slightly in this year’s budget with a tweak in the excise tax on money transfers, and a charge on large bank transfers that has since been temporarily suspended by a Court.

Foreign Exchange: 1 US $ equals Kshs 100,75, while a year ago it was Kshs. 103.9. Five years ago it was 87.15 and ten years ago the dollar exchanged at Kshs 67.4. Also ten years ago the Euro was at 101, the Rand 8.9 and the Sterling Pound 125, while today the Euro is at Kshs 117, the Rand at Kshs 7.4 and the Pound at Kshs 133.

Other Energy Source: An LPG gas cylinder at Kenol is Kshs 2,250 this month. A year ago (in March) it was 2,030 and six years ago (2012) it was 3,000.

Less Expensive

Nothing really

Share this inflation index if you agree with the perceptions about what has become more or less expensive over the years.

If it were all left up to you, how would you improve the urban inflation index?

Paper Planes: Big Day for African Airlines on Paper

July 18 was a big day for various African airlines with news affecting travel in different parts of the continent, ahead of the Farnborough Airshow in the UK.

Nigeria announced plans to revive a national airline – Nigeria Air, a new private sector led-airline in which the government would own no more than 5% and would not manage. It is planned to start flights in December with a target of serving 81 destinations. The launch was officiated by the Nigerian Minister of State for Aviation at Farnborough and he said that they were in talks with Boeing and Airbus and also financiers such as Standard Chartered Bank. The new airline was shown in the livery of new Boeing 737 Max and Airbus A330 models. 

Just a few days after leaders of Ethiopia and Eritrea announced a cease-fire and made historic visits to each other’s countries, Ethiopian Airlines made it’s first flight since 1998  to Eritrea. On the flight were many families reuniting, and former Prime Minister former Hailemariam Desalegn. The flights will be seven days a week, between Addis and Asmara and Ethiopian,  which is expected to be part of some privatization program, was also reported to be planning to invest in a 20% stake in Eritrean Airlines.

Also there are reports that Ethiopian Cargo, Africa’s largest cargo operator, is to sign a joint venture with parcels and logistics giant DHL that would see DHL take up a 49% stake in the company.

A few days ago, Air Tanzania received its first Boeing 787 Dreamliner, which is expected to carve some routes in East Africa that are controlled by Kenya Airways and Rwanda Airlines.

Also at Farnborough, Uganda Airlines signed an MOU for two A330-800 Neo planes which they would fit in a three class-layout.

Earlier the same day, Uganda (National) Airlines announced an order with another manufacturer Bombardier for four CRJ900 planes.

Kenya Airways continues to market new routes Mauritius, Cape Town and the new direct non-stop flights to New York that will start in October 2018.

At Farnborough, Embraer and Kenya Airways announced a spare parts deal.

South Africa Airways celebrated Nelson Mandela’s 100th birthday with some new livery on some planes.

The revival comes all comes at a time when African Airlines now account for just 20% of the air traffic from the continent, down from 60% in a decade as Gulf carriers have made great strides in the continent. African airlines have also struggled with financial performance and management, with only Ethiopian posting consistent profits in the last decade. And, notably,  the deals announced at Farnborough lack detail on the financing aircraft, with Boeing 787’s and Airbus A330’s each having official prices of over $200 million.

Earlier, Skytrax published its list of the top 100 airlines in the world and it featured some African airlines including Ethiopian Airlines (at number 40), South African Airways (45), Air Mauritius (69), Air Seychelles (82), Kenya Airways (85) and was topped by Singapore, Qatar, All Nippon, Emirates and Eva Air. Other awards for African airlines were in categories of best airline staff service (South African Airways), best regional airline (Royal Air Maroc), best low-cost airline ( Mango) and best African airline (Ethiopian).

EDIT: More from Farnborough – via Leeham News & Comment.

  • Air Botswana signed a firm order for two ATR72-600s.
  • Mauritania Airlines placed a firm order for two E175s that will deliver next year.

Bankers Predict the World Cup – 2018 Edition

The 2018 World Cup is now in its semi-final stage. Let’s look at how some banks made their picks to win the tournament.

Who was Predicted to Win the 2018 World Cup?

  • Germany:  Was picked by UBS (Germany has a 24% chance of winning football’s ultimate prize, followed closely by Brazil and Spain, who respectively have a 19.8% and 16.1% chance).
  • Brazil: Picked by Goldman Sachs (Brazil to defeat Germany).
  • France/Spain: Picked by Nomura (France and Spain to meet in the final).
  • Spain: Picked by ING.

Here is a good write-up of the Goldman Sachs picks and a summary of some of the different bank forecasts.

The teams in the semi-final today are England, Croatia, France, and Belgium. With both of its initial finalist picks now out of the competition, Goldman Sachs has revised its model and …With Brazil now out of the world cup, Belgium is at the top of our probability table with a 32.6% chance of lifting the trophy, closely followed by France (29.8%). Similarly, our model’s modal projection is for Belgium to defeat France and England en route to winning the tournament….

Look back at the 2006 World Cup banker predictions.