Category Archives: Safaricom IPO

Safaricom @ NSE Day 5

Friday afternoon
Deals 4,415 with a turnover of Kshs. 1.87 billion [$29.7 million]
Avg price 7.47
Closing 7.45
High 7.65
Low 7.00
Last 7.65
Volume 250.9 million shares

Commentary: Bullish break out. Heavy Buy side demand. 8-10 range next week. Foreign Selling top 555,000,000/= [They must be near flat]
Courtesy of Rich.Co.Ke [NSE data vendor]

Refund drama
– The Central Bank directive that requires refund cheques to be banked in applicants bank accounts (not endorsed to brokers or third parties) will require many applicants to open bank accounts, just to receive their money.

It is a boost to banks, since the initial Safaricom prospectus document contained the option of applicants receiving refunds of less than 5,000 shillings ($80) to get their cash via M-pesa. However no one meets that amount as even the lowest application investor of Kshs. 10,000 is getting at least Kshs. 7,500, but which is still an amount Safaricom (instant value to mobile phone) is better able to handle and process than a bank cheque that clears after a week.

– Equity Bank applicants’ refunds are already in their accounts where they have been used to offset the IPO loans. Other banks should also state their policies on IPO loans where investors have only utilized 22% towards shares, while paying interest rates on the full 100% loan

Refunds to Bonds
Try your luck at Bonds if NSE Equities are too volatile: The second tranche of the 7 year Barclays Bank bond is available to investors up to July 9th, minimum application amount is 100,000 shillings ($1,585) at fixed or floating rates and can be traded at the NSE thereafter. (details at barclaysbond@barclays.com)

Safaricom @ NSE Day 4

Thursday 12/6 preliminary closing data
Total deals 5,233
Total turnover 967,039,104 [$15.3 million]
Avg price 7.37
High price 7.50
Low price 7.10
Last price 7.35
Shares volume 131.24 million
Commentary: Safaricom closes up 5%. 7.50 is the pivot.

Courtesy of Rich.Co.Ke [NSE data vendor]

Safaricom @ NSE Day 3

Wednesday 11/6

8,712 Safariom trades, with a turnover of Kshs. 1.27 billion ($20.4 million)
Price 7.00
High 7.10
Low 6.90
Last 7.00
Shares volume 180,879,400

Commentary: Very constructive session. Market is now underpinned at 7.00, support is 6.65. Demand side was robust today

Courtesy of Rich.Co.Ke [NSE data vendor]

Celtel Zambia:
From Bloomberg reports on day one of Celtel Zambia trading. Celtel Zambia, which sold 1.04 billion shares before listing for 640 kwacha ($0.20) apiece, climbed as much as 85 kwacha to 725 kwacha, according to Lusaka Stock Exchange data.

Safaricom @ NSE: Day 1 and Day 2

Day One
Shares Traded; 416.3 million
Value in Kenya shillings; 3.061b [Just under $50m]
Hi 13.70 [probably across the books]
Lo 6.95
[Market had 13m shares at 7 shillings on the offer at the close]
Average price 7.35.
Commentary: This is an entry rather than an exit level.

End of Day 2-Tuesday 10/06/08
Total deals 3375
Turnover 885.2 million shillings
Avg price 6.95 [closing]
High price 8.00
Low price 6.65
Last price 6.85
Shares traded 127.3 million

Rich.co.ke Commentary: It has based out at 6.65, I think. What I have noticed in Kenya is that everyone tries to get in at the bottom. So tails tend to be fatter. At these levels, this is a steal on a medium-term view. International Investors were heavy Sellers at around 500m shillings worth. Counterintuitively, that’s a positive because they will have to own the stock [because of its market capitalisation] and will also join other Buyers, at the turnaround.

Courtesy of Aly Khan Satchu

What to do with refund cheque?

Safaricom now at 7 shillings

– Keep buying until the Vodafone stand is known
– Keep buying unless you want a 20 shilling dividend cheques
– Keep buying because Zain/Celtel is struggling (the Zain reports they have 23% less customers than a year ago)
– KCB right maybe, Housing Finance not likely