Category Archives: Safaricom IPO

Shares Portfolio May 2010

A rising tide lifts all boats

Tracking changes from three months and a year ago

The Stable


Diamond Trust ↑
Kenya Airways ↑
KCB ↓
Scangroup ↑
Stanbic (Uganda) ↑
Uchumi ↔
Performance: Portfolio is down 2% in value from February after exit from Safaricom which was about 10% of Portfolio, while the NSE is up 18% since February 2010
In/Out: Exited Safaricom completely, after accumulating shares since the 2008 IPO. One of the most liquid stock at the NSE, with lot of foreigner interest, and one I will buy back later
Increase/decrease: None
Best performer Diamond Trust and Scangroup, each up 23%
Worst performer: KCB down 6%

Events
Unexpected Gains/Losses
– Uchumi lifting itself out of receivership and applying for re-listing at the Nairobi Stock Exchange
– The communication spat pitting Safaricom versus the three other mobile companies, and another Scangroup buyout deal, both featured in this post here.

Other events
– The Housing Finance merger dance with Equity Bank here
– Another share split announced by Kenol Kobil (2nd time in six years)

Looking forward to
– Dividend payments expected from Diamond Trust, KCB, Scangroup, Stanbic (Uganda)
– @coldtusker says to watch kapchorua Tea at 140, Kenol at 93.5, Kenya Airways 56, and KPLC 185 and compare 6 months from now while Riba Capital is watching tea stocks, KPLC and Housing Finance.

This time around: Kenya Stockbroker collapse, Report leaks, Credit Reference Live

Time for another this time around post which looks at stories that recur in the business environment

Mars Group Kenya: The an anti-corruption watchdog group is the wikileaks for Kenya, re-publishing hitherto top-secret government reports at their website.

Mars Group research and produce their own reports, but their archives contain a growing list of reports of corruption in Kenya that is worth checking out. This week they have reports done by PricewaterhouseCoopers for the government of Kenya on the collapse of Triton Oil Company and on the misuse of funds for Maize famine relief in 2008. Last month they also released the report on the sale of the Grand Regency hotel. The Triton report shows that:
– At Kenya pipeline company (KPC) the oil collateral agreement was poorly drafted and ambiguous. Also managers had great discretion, procedures were lax /there was inter-departmental conflict (oil was released without verification) and documentation was poor (since documents would get lost at KPC, financers would exchange documents then present them all to KPC at once)
– Triton was aggressive with financing and would arrange for shipment before they got financing. They were stuck at some point and KCB entered into a finance agreement for goods when the ship was already in Kenya
Bad banking Ecobank have no claim against KPC, while the Fortis claim against Triton is suspect. Also Glencore had stopped financing Triton in June 2008 as they were suspicious about KPC fuel stock claims
– KCB and other financiers did not cooperate with the PWC investigators
– The debt owed to KCB may be substantially lower than KCB claims and they have provided little information to assist in verification of the Triton debt.
– Kenya anti-corruption commission should investigate further staff named in the report

GoK Bond The Government of Kenya is going to raise Kshs 14.5 billion for infrastructure via a third infrastructure bond. How does that compare to a similar bond a year ago?
2009: Kshs 18 billion ($240 million), interest rate 12.5%, minimum bid Kshs 100,000 (~$1,250), maturity 8 years, principal repaid in 2015, 2017, 2021. Funds used for road, geothermal, water projects
2010: Kshs 14.5 billion ($188 million), interest rate 9.75% tax exempt, minimum Kshs 100,000, maturity 8 years, principal repaid in 2016, 2018. Funds used for water, sewer, irrigation, road, and geothermal projects

The 2009 bond was over-subscribed and the only notable difference in 2010 is the lower interest rate offered. The CBK has decided the high cost of loans offered by commercial banks and perhaps by offering the same banks a lower return on government bonds; they will offer more competitive borrowing rates to the public

Credit Reference: February has also seen the licensing of Kenya’s first credit reference bureau – CRB Africa by the bank regulator, the Central Bank of Kenya. Following this, commercial banks have apparently commenced sharing information with the agency. Some of the rules governing sharing of data were highlighted when the credit reference rules were gazetted almost two years ago. These include
– Bureaus may share info only with a customers’ permission (which happens when you sign for a loan)
– They may only share information for business decision making (evaluate credit prospects) and must keep track of all information they share
– Customers are entitled to one free report a year, and within 30 days of a negative referral.
– If a customer complains, and bureau not able to complete an investigation of disputed information within a month, information will be deleted as request by customer
So what information will they compile?
For individuals: Name Citizenship ID / PIN Postal/ Telephone Credit history (as reported) Court judgments (as reported) Referees
– For companies: Company registration details postal/physical/telephone Credit history (as reported), Court judgments (as reported), Guarantees
Shareholdings/directorships

Stockbroker collapse: This month saw the placing of another stockbroker under statutory management – this time its Ngenye Kariuki Stockbrokers [Last year in March it was Discount stockbrokers that was placed under statutory management]

Despite strong defense from the Kenya Association of Stockbrokers & Investments Banks – KASIB who say the brokers problems were manageable and did not warrant the intervention of the authorities the broker was in a weak financial position.
A summary by Faida Investment Bank, based on the published un-audited results of Ngenye Kariuki showed this
Half year June 2008 versus 2009
June 08 income 35m, expenses, 21 million, pre-tax profit of 10 million
June 09 income 3 million, expenses 10, pre-tax loss of 11 million

Share capital of 50 million, capital reserves of 251 million (which many brokers draw from the sale price in 2006 of Francis Thuo stockbrokers) [and the same amount appears as an intangible asset) at June 2009, the broker had an overdraft position of 63 million and receivable of 127 million which KASIB is laying at the feet of Citibank for withholding funds from the 2008 Safaricom IPO that are owed to several stockbrokers.

NSE Portfolio May 2009

hit bottom? Time to buy?

Last quarterly check of the Nairobi share portfolio was in February 2009 and a year ago

The Stable


Diamond Trust ↓
Kenya Airways
KCB ↑
Safaricom ↓
Scangroup ↓
Stanbic (Uganda) ↓

Review:
– Best performer: KCB up 2%
– Worst performer Stanbic down 30% (combination of share drop and weaker Uganda shilling), and Safaricom down 10%
– In: Kenya Airways
– Out: none
– Increase none
– Decerease none
– Unexpected gains/losses: none

Events & Outlook:
– Performance: Portfolio is up 1% in the last three months while the NSE Index is down 3.5%
– Bought KQ, tried to buy illiquid Kenol at 30

Looking forward to
– Dividend payments expected from Diamond Trust, KCB, Scangroup, Stanbic (UG)
– Privatization commission has lined up several companies that may be availed later in 2009

M-Pesa IPO?

Mobile transfer solution M-Pesa from Safaricom was on Monday inaugurated as loan repayment tool for microfinance.

SMEP using M-Pesa for loan repayment is now the latest M-Pesa partner joining satellite TV, medical cover, investment funds, spare part utility providers and insurance companies that now enable their customers to remit monthly or periodic solutions via M-Pesa.

This phenomenon is not unseen, it addresses gaps in the banking sector; and now M-Pesa solutions are coming from the customers, not Safaricom – which is the way it should be.

M-Pesa Flaws: M-Pesa with its 5 million customers is not perfect and it may have reached the zenith for now; it is pricey, it requires business owners to put up substantial credit (float) to access the system, its statements are crude etc. Electricity bills can now be paid by M-Pesa, but accounts take 48 hours to be credited, while with rival transfer product Zap (from Zain) they take 24 hours. The fault probably lies with Kenya Power, which has forged closer links with the less established Zap and Standard Chartered Bank.

Loan potential: M-Pesa, a Vodafone solution, now goes into the area, that no one can contain – credit growth. The SMEP (micro-finance loan) repayments are just a start. Banks and savings & credit societies (SACCO’s) can easily utilize M-Pesa for loan repayments under the current 35,000 shilling ($440) daily transfer limit. e.g. a 400,000 shilling ($5,000) SACCO loan at 12%, repaid over one year will have installments of 35,932 per month, or a car loan of 800,000 shillings ($10,000) repaid over 3 years at 21% interest would have repayments of 30,140 per month.

New markets: M-Pesa has been built on the back of Safaricom, operating informal relationships with subscribers who submit a bare minimum of information. That relationship requirement with customers requires a lot less than with a bank and international know your customer guidelines (KYC). Already, all the mobile companies have aspirations of moving on to international transfers and merchant banking which will also bring them more into collision with banks, western union and debit/credit card giants.

New regulations: M-Pesa’s already fractious relationships with banks is likely to get worse; and with (soon) three mobile companies offering money transfers, and all eating into bank ledger and interest income, there will be calls to rein them in. Soon it is likely that the government of Kenya will create an e-commerce regulatory body (another parastatal) since neither the Communications Commission or the Central Bank has absolute authority.

Second Safaricom IPO: Vodafone should spin-off M-Pesa into a separate company. M-Pesa is now able to stand on its own, and handle its own competition, regulatory, and licensing issues. Safaricom should let it go, focus on other voice and data services, while continuing to enjoy the revenue M-Pesa spin, by subscribing for shares in it. By freeing it from Safaricom, M-Pesa will move from being an ‘unregulated’ but licensed solution, owned and managed by Vodafone (UK), to a local-listed company, owned and operated in Kenya.

Bank waters

In the pool

Diving in: Another West African bank giant UBA follows Ecobank after apparently having secured a banking license to operate in Kenya.

Treading in the shallow end: Still finding their ground are the new Islamic BanksGulf African and First Community that started business last year. They are likely to be the only banks that will record losses of at least Kshs. 200 million each as their new branches and staff continue to reach out and educate customers on a new way to bank.

Had enough swimming?:
(i) Morgan Stanley who were supposed to introduce long term foreign investors to Kenya with a five year window or longer, but instead brought in short term investors at the expense of the Government and othrr investors who took out their profits in a week. Another lesson learnt a long way back from the IPO.
(ii) The Kenyan unit of Citi is on track to rake in profits of $50 million this year on the back of aggresive trading, but will it be enough, or will it be bled off by the parent unit? And who would buy it and its lucrative American interest-linked business portfolio?