Category Archives: NSE portfolio

Shares Portfolio: November 2014

Comparing shares to last year and last quarter, the portfolio is up 7% in three months (excluding new investments), while the NSE 20 share index is up is up 0.5% since August 2014.

The Stable

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Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↓
Centum  (ICDCI) ↑
Diamond Trust ↓
KCB ↓
Kenya Airways ↓
Kenya Oil ↑
Mumias Sugar
Nairobi Shares Exchange ↑
Safaricom ↑
Scangroup ↓
Stanbic (Uganda) ↑
Unga ↑
Changes
In: Mumias Sugar
Out: None
Increase: Kenya Airways, KCB, Scangroup
Decrease: None
Best performer: NSE Kenya (up 121% since IPO), Centum (16%), (Unga 14%)
Worst performer: Kenya Airways (down 22%) Bralirwa (down 19%)
Unexpected Events:
– Bralirwa share dip which has been linked to the bonus share
– KQ’s loss in the half year. Amid the arrival of a half-dozen new Boeing 787 Dreamliners and other aircraft and long serving CEO Titus Naikuni stepping down there was one more shock from the airline in the form of a half year loss of Kshs 10.45 billion ($116 million)
– Are Kenya bank stocks overvalued as a Citi report says?
– Listings by Kurwitu Ventures (at Kshs 1,500 per share, which was higher than British American Tobacco that’s at 904 now) and Flame Tree (FTG) in recent weeks in the GEMS category of the NSE.
– Both Equity and Housing Finance forming holding companies and transferring banking and mortgage business respectively to the new group parents.
– The vicious fallout between BritAm and Cytonn.
Looking forward to
– Unga’s acquisition of Ennsvalley, a bakery worth Kshs 500 million ($5.55 million)
– Uchumi’s rights issue to raise Kshs 895 million ($10 million) by offering shareholders 3 shares for every 8 held at Kshs 9 per share, with the funds to be used for expansion in East Africa and refurbishment of stores.
– Seeing how Mumias Sugar shares proceed..having gone from highs of Kshs 40 in years past, to 1.4 this month.

Shares Portfolio August 2014

The Stable

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Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↑

Diamond Trust Bank ↑

ICDCI (Centum) ↑

Kenya Airways ↓

Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB) ↑

Kenya Oil Company (Kenol) ↓

Safaricom ↓

Scangroup ↓

Stanbic (Uganda) ↓

Unga ↑

Review

  • Comparing the basket to one year ago, the portfolio, excluding new shares, is up 22% since May 2014 while the Nairobi Shares Exchange main index is up 5% over the same period.
  • Best Performer: Centum (up 36% in 3 months), KCB 23%
  • Worst Performer: Kenya Airways (down 15% in 3 months), Kenol -8%
  • In: NSE
  • Out: Barclays, Equity, Portland Cement
  • Increase: Diamond Trust, Centum, Kenya Airways
  • Decrease: None
  • Unexpected gains/losses:  Centum’s endless deal making.

Shares Portfolio May 2014

Compared to last quarter  and a year ago, since February, the portfolio is down 12% while the NSE 20 share index is up 2% this quarter. Compared to last May, the portfolio is up 17%. 


The Stable

Barclays ↑
Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↑
Centum  (ICDCI) ↑
Diamond Trust ↑
East African Portland Cement ↑
KCB ↑
Kenya Airways  ↑
Kenya Oil ↑
Safaricom ↑
Scangroup ↑
Stanbic (Uganda) ↓
Unga ↑


Changes
  • In: None
  • Out: Equity Bank
  • Increase: Kenya Airways
  • Decrease: None
  • Best performers: Unga (up 46% this quarter), Portland Cement, 32%, Safaricom 10%
  • Worst performer: Scangroup (down 0.4% this quarter)
Unexpected
  • Barclays cutting back globally and re-aligning around four pillars, one of which is Africa growth.
  • Bralirwa profit dip (due to economic downturn and new taxes in the DRC)
    • Safaricom Academy student performs at the results
  • Safaricom’s super profits despite another challenging year, but which they ended with $1.7 billion in revenue and and $270 million in profits. The company chairman said that have been Kenya’s largest taxpayer for six straight years (paying $3.6 billion in taxes and fees in ten years) and you can be sure the government will support them, no matter how much the (floundering) competition complains. 

Looking Forward To

  • Kenya Airways getting four more Dreamliners from Boeing this year.
  • More M&A deals that involve listed companies like Centum who are still battling for control of Rea Vipingo.

Shares Portfolio February 2014

Compared to last quarter, the portfolio is up 0.13% while the NSE 20 share index is down by 5.25% since  November 2013.
The Stable
Barclays ↓
Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↓
Centum  (ICDCI) ↑
Diamond Trust ↑
East African Portland Cement ↓
Equity Bank ↓
KCB ↓
Kenya Airways  ↓
Kenya Oil ↓
Safaricom ↑
Scangroup ↓
Stanbic (Uganda) ↑
Unga ↑
Changes
In: None
Out: None
Increase: Kenya Airways
Decrease: Diamond Trust
Best performer: Centum (up 22% this quarter), then Diamond Trust (14%), Safaricom 6% 
Worst performer: Scangroup (down 15% this quarter), then Kenya Airways  (-14%), KCB (-10%)
Looking Forward To 
– Bank profits & dividends, though it’s going to be a rough year 
– Diamond Trust rights issue.
– More M&A deals that involve listed companies like Centum.
– The downward trend echoes back to 5 years ago  when every share was down, and Diamond Trust was the best performer by only losing 8%. Since then, it is up 229%.