Safaricom @ NSE: Day 1 and Day 2

Day One
Shares Traded; 416.3 million
Value in Kenya shillings; 3.061b [Just under $50m]
Hi 13.70 [probably across the books]
Lo 6.95
[Market had 13m shares at 7 shillings on the offer at the close]
Average price 7.35.
Commentary: This is an entry rather than an exit level.

End of Day 2-Tuesday 10/06/08
Total deals 3375
Turnover 885.2 million shillings
Avg price 6.95 [closing]
High price 8.00
Low price 6.65
Last price 6.85
Shares traded 127.3 million

Rich.co.ke Commentary: It has based out at 6.65, I think. What I have noticed in Kenya is that everyone tries to get in at the bottom. So tails tend to be fatter. At these levels, this is a steal on a medium-term view. International Investors were heavy Sellers at around 500m shillings worth. Counterintuitively, that’s a positive because they will have to own the stock [because of its market capitalisation] and will also join other Buyers, at the turnaround.

Courtesy of Aly Khan Satchu

What to do with refund cheque?

Safaricom now at 7 shillings

– Keep buying until the Vodafone stand is known
– Keep buying unless you want a 20 shilling dividend cheques
– Keep buying because Zain/Celtel is struggling (the Zain reports they have 23% less customers than a year ago)
– KCB right maybe, Housing Finance not likely

Safaricom IPO Allocation Part II

From a discussion in the skunkworks group forums: Taking up on concerns about e-government in the IPO application process, the same site now offers investors tracking their applications a chance to check how many shares they will get. (I checked and for retail investors, like me, the 22% application appears to be in order)

However the skunkworks group users raised concerns that anyone (not just applicants) could tweak ID and CDS numbers and look up other people’s applications – and beyond that – box numbers, phone numbers, e-mail, amounts applied for, where their refunds will go, etc.

update 1 [SITE TAKEN DOWN NOW – 5PM NAIROBI TIME]

update 2 CHECK BALANCES VIA PHONE SMS
There was an advert in the Saturday (7/6) newspapers, advising investors to confirm their allocations via mobile phone SMS; send an SMS with CDS and ID numbers ( “CDS___*ID ____*”)to 2732 on Safaricom or Celtel [cost is Kshs. 10 per message] I tried but got an error message, i.e one of my numbers was wrong!

Update 3 CHECK BALANCES VIA PHONE SMS
There was an advert in the Sunday (8/6) newspapers, advising investors to confirm their allocations via mobile phone SMS; send an SMS with CDS and ID numbers ( “CDS___*ID ____*”)to 4009 on Safaricom or Celtel [cost is free/unknown] I tried and got an answer SIX HOURS later, same balance as the e-mail – 22%

Kutwa Tuesday – Post Madaraka Day

a day late, most from the daily papers

banking:
Refund dilemma: What should banks do with Safaricom refunds of 80%? Wisest would be to take the money and accept refunds from disappointed shareholders to pre-pay their loans. It would not be wise to refuse to accept money and insist that borrowers serve their loan durations– as idle money has many employers. The middle ground would be to facilitate investors to buy more safcom or other shares, but that’s a new risk area in investment banking. Ideally there should be loans for secondary market purchases or margin trading.
Next I-bank Equity Bank to set up an investment banking subsidiary (from Ocean Newsletter)
New note Kenya needs a new bank note – denomination 3,000 or 5,000 shillings soon.

NSE talking points:
Fuel hedging?: Despite the reduced flights, its’ amazing that Kenya Airways actually reduced its fuel bill in 2008 (albeit just 1.6%) – this is at a time when other airlines are going bankrupt because of high fuel costs. Can they do it again in ’09 without having to resort to radical fuel saving measures?
– Total Oil interested in Caltex and will compete against the government for the stations
– Government and NSSF to opt out of Housing Finance rights issue
– Fresh off a profit warning, the Sameer Africa boss out; is this the reason the reason ?
– Undugu? Nation reporters in Tz still not comfortable
– The City of Nairobi is now Safaricom broadband hotspot who are selling postpaid hotspot bundles.
Equipment is a broadband modem for 6,000 ($98) and a broadband router for 35,000 ($570) shillings. Service options offered include – up to 700MB for 2,000 ($33), up to 2GB for 4,000, 5GB for 7,000, 8GB for 10,000, and up to 30GB for 30,000 ($491) , but weak customer care remains an Achilles heel for new Safaricom products

Parastatals
– Refinery Coalition Libyan and India to share equaly/ (happily?) in the Kenya Oil Refinery in Mombasa
– The Agriculture Finance Corporation (AFC) asks farmers to continue paying their loans since most of them were not affected by post-election violence
– East African Portland cement to start paying all supplier invoices by electronic financial transactions (EFT)
– Kenya Railways selling land in makupa (7 acres), kibarani (9), embakasi (10) and a building in headquarters (D/L 27/6)
– Kenya Ports Authority to set up an inland container depot (dry port) at Eldoret (seeking bidder to lease operate by 20/6)
– Kenya Re say their will put up a transit hotel at JKIA (was in their 2006 prospectus)
– The City council of Nairobi seeks land to for a new cemetery
– Education: Makerere University (Ug) to offer courses in renewable energy

12 Free Things in Nairobi

Inspired by Majonzi and the increasing cost of living here’s some free stuff you can get in Nairobi.

some of these may be out-dated, and please feel free to add any others

1. ‘Free’ books: at the Book Villa. Become a member and read as many new, best sellers, finbooks, travel non-fiction books etc.
2. ‘Free’ breakfast: at Books First/ Nakumatt buy one get one free on Sunday morning
3. ‘Free burger’: at Steers buy one get one free every Wednesday
4. Free Internet: Hotposts can be found at Mobil/Oil Libya stations, as well as Tamasha and Alfajiri and some Java restaurants
5. ‘Free pizza’: buy one get one free on Tuesday at Pizza Inn and buy one get one free on Friday at Debonairs
6. ‘Free movie meal’ (hot dog, soda, popcorn) at Nu Metro on Monday with purchase of a movie ticket
7. Free magazines/newspapers: Read the latest issues at many offices, salons/barber shops and banks, but you have to rotate to get variety.
8. ‘Free bank loans’: use your credit card carefully and pay off the full amount at the end of the month
9. Free money transfer: Safaricom’s M-Pesa is great, but if concerned about cost, use the banking network to transfer money free. Just deposit money in the recipients account for them to withdraw at their local branch instantly
10. Free classified advertising: place a classified ad in the Nairobi Star newspaper; send a text message and it runs on the next day
11. ‘Free calls’: Safarciom is offering free night calls, from 9 pm till the end of June. But you have to top up your account daily, and hope that you can get through as the network can get congested
12. Free investment advice: online forums like Stockskenya, Nairobist.