Investing: Use Social Networks, don’t be used

All data indicates a new age of interest in retail investing. Across the world more people than ever are starting to trade for the first time, with reports of retail participation in the US stock market, for example, increasing from 10% in 2019 to 25% in 2020. Even during a public relations disaster, Robinhood- the U.S retail-focused trading app- onboarded 600k new clients in a single day. Our brokerage, Equiti Group/ FXPesa, saw volumes and client numbers increase by multiples across all our key markets and this will continue through this year.

The pandemic created an environment where people were looking for an income in the safety of their own home and, logically, that trading/ investing answered that need. Anything that brings a heightened awareness of financial literacy is a great thing, but it’s also something that we need to nurture. With millions entering the financial markets for the first time, unfortunately, scams, misinformation and false promises follow, and we must increase consciousness of this.

Social Networks: Most of the world has been following the journey of a supposed war between those on a Reddit forum called r/WallStreetBets and hedge funds betting on the demise of American electronic games supplier GameStop (going ‘short’). This battle was trending on all major social networks, such as Twitter, Facebook, Telegram and Instagram. These networks are powerful, Reddit has 160 million unique visits to its site each month.

People that had never invested before frantically set up trading accounts and placed trades with as much capital as they could put their hands on. Some naïve first-timers often had very little notion of risk or what they were doing, but instead paid full attention to the latest funny meme or influencer that told them that this stock was ‘going to the moon’. It did, and then it came back again leaving a lot of people losing a lot of money.

Ignoring Fundamentals: Social networks and online personalities have an increasing amount of influence over investors. Recently, Elon Musk the CEO of Tesla added 12% to the value of Bitcoin simply by changing his bio to the bitcoin Twitter hashtag. With the wave of memes, online ‘experts’ and celebrities pushing their agendas, the fundamentals of great companies are becoming secondary. We need to acknowledge this and attempt to educate differently.

A perfect example of this was the recent movement in the Silver price. Silver is widely regarded as an undervalued metal, mainly because of its increasing utility in ‘green technologies’, such as solar panels. Various reports declare solar panels and wind turbines will require three times more silver than what is used today. Silver is also used in electric car production and other tech of the future. When the silver price jumped 12% (its biggest intraday rise since 2008), it was not because of these fundamentals. The price jumped primarily because social media declared the same war with hedge funds and decided to try to do the GameStop ‘trick’ again, making the Twitter hashtags #shortsqueeze and #silvershortsqueeze trend across the world. The silver market is huge and not as easily manipulated as a relatively small stock such as GameStop, and so this attempt was doomed, with silver retracing back very quickly and lots of retail traders losing more money. 

All this focus away from fundamentals, meant that the market was quite late to understand the stellar Q4 earnings shown by some great companies, especially Big US Tech firms. Amazon posted $126 billion Q4 revenue and shows no sign of slowing. Google saw a 23% revenue growth in Q4. Unfortunately, the circa 4-6% share price increases these saw due to these results aren’t considered attractive enough to those only seeking the 16x returns GameStop gave some in just 2 weeks. There is so much real opportunity in the markets, especially now.

Scams: If you were to investigate your junk mail (don’t!), you would have probably been sent a scam email within the last 24hrs. It is most likely centred around cryptocurrencies, where it is promising huge returns from trading obscure crypto that you have never heard of. Some of the recent scams are from hackers sending out tweets from reputable, businessmen like Jeff Bezos and even former presidents such as Barack Obama’s certified accounts. They ask for the trusting public to send bitcoin to a wallet and then wait for 2x back.

Unfortunately, as unlikely as these scams may seem, the public is losing millions of dollars to them daily. In today’s ‘at once’ society, many aren’t thinking of growing knowledge and wealth over a long period. Instead, they want instant gratification and huge profits, as is the expectation in most walks of life now. Now, if you want something, you want it immediately- but my experience of wealth generation is the very opposite of this. It takes time to do it right.

Long-term side-effects: Social media has been an excellent source of information for new traders, keen to improve their financial futures. However, there is cause for concern if these young and new entrants blindly follow investment ideas that they do not understand, just because the herd are doing the same thing. We have a huge wave of first- time traders ignoring great companies that have incredible distribution channels and solid, multiple revenue streams, instead opting to follow a funny meme of Elon Musk and a Shiba Inu dog (DogeCoin).

A glaring issue is I don’t see how it can work out for these traders. If they make money in these pump-and-dump Reddit schemes, for example, they will invariably put more into the next one and continue until they lose everything. In this search for increasing returns, they are also susceptible to false promises and scams. On the flip side, if they lose their money in the first attempt, they are likely to shut their accounts and never think about their financial futures again. That is a tragedy.

It is far better to work with a brokerage to diversify your investments across global asset classes, regions and short and long-term plays, concentrating on sound fundamental and technical analysis…improving your knowledge day by day, year by year. Understanding this gives you a great chance at achieving real wealth. This has always been exciting enough for me, no meme needed. 

A guest post by Brian Myers (@bjmyersUK), the CEO at Equiti Capital UK.

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Absa Kenya One Year Anniversary

Absa Bank Kenya celebrated its one-year anniversary at its newly-redesigned Queensway Branch in downtown Nairobi today. It has been a strange first year for Absa which completed the transformation from the Barclays brand in February 2020, three weeks days before Kenya was enveloped by Covid-19 and underwent a shutdown that, while it has progressively reduced, still affected thousands of business, jobs, and customers, as well as the bank itself.

Speaking at the event, Absa Kenya Managing Director Jeremy Awori said the bank had a great strategy to grow and expand, then Covid-19 hit and the year turned to be one of the challenges for the bank, industry, local and global economy. Absa also began to see opportunities for impact and to demonstrate its humanity and innovations to enable the bank to serve customers as they worked to rebuild their livelihoods. They adjusted to have half their staff work from home and instituted a shift arrangement for front-line workers and these enabled 100% of branches to remain open, while the digital platforms had 99% uptime.

Absa offered financial relief to help customers navigate the pandemic after many lost jobs and businesses. They restructured Kshs 62 billion worth of loan repayments, extending relief to over 59,000 customers. They also continue to lend a sizeable amount to SME’s to stay afloat and provide employment, and also committed to paying small suppliers of the bank within seven days to boost their cash flow.

He added that the bank was cautiously optimistic that 2021 will be a better year, with news of vaccines giving confidence to business and governments to relax containment measures and turn to boost economies. Absa Kenya will invest Shs 1.6 billion in 60 technology projects to enhance customer experiences. One will be to automate loan top-ups, allowing people to get loans on top of existing loans, and another will be a new online business-banking platform.

Absa Kenya Chairman Charles Muchene said the bank contributed Shs 50 million to the Kenya Covid Fund, invested Shs 30 million in initiatives led by partners, and donated 210,000 masks for medical workers, with another 20,000 to boda-boda operators. The bank is now asking Kenyans to join and to help underprivileged. They launched a “Wall of possibilities” for people to write suggestions or ideas on the bank’s social media pages or at the Queensway branch on ways that the bank can assist communities to benefit. Absa may fund each idea with up to Shs 2.5 million.

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Stanbic Bank “It Can Be” launch

Stanbic Kenya has launched “It Can Be,” a new way of engaging with customers, particularly with women and small & medium enterprises. Stanbic is the second-oldest bank in Kenya, having started over 100 years ago and grew to later merge with CFC Bank in 2007. Today, it is a Tier-I bank with $3 billion assets in Kenya and serves over 200,000 customers with services in corporate & retail banking, wealth management, investments, and insurance.

“It Can Be” symbolises a new push to engage with customers, in the new decade, beyond Stanbic’s 26 branches in the country. The bank has transformed and adopted digital-based solutions to serve its customers who have also largely shifted to online and digital after business disruptions with the emergence of Covid-19. One new Stanbic tool is automating core functions in documentary trade finance using artificial intelligence (AI) and natural language processing (NLP) for real-time counter-party verification, giving customers quick feedback while reducing trade risks.

The “It Can Be” brand ambassador is Brigid Kosgei, the women’s marathon world-record holder.

Stanbic Kenya CEO Charles Mudiwa spoke at the “It Can Be” launch and mentioned how Covid-19 had shown the importance of relationships and standing with communities. He added that the bank’s customer focus had shifted to being relationship-based and Stanbic has embraced four policy initiatives of funding, markets, business competitiveness and influencing policy. In its third-quarter 2020 financial results, Stanbic Kenya announced that it had extended loan restructurings to 23% of its customers, at no cost, to cushion them from the effects of Covid-19. It also reduced the interest charged on existing loans and waived charges for using the bank’s digital platforms.

Stanbic is the largest bank group in Africa, with $151 billion in assets and a presence in twenty countries on the continent. Its largest shareholder is the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the world’s largest bank that owns 20.1%. Stanbic Kenya is listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) and shareholders receive a high dividend yield of 8%. Stanbic Africa is also increasing its shareholding of the Kenyan bank to 75% by buying shares from other shareholders.

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Reading the Kenya and United Kingdom Trade Agreements

Kenya and the United Kingdom had an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) signed in December 2020 by their trade ministers, Betty Maina and Ranil Jayawardena, which went into effect on January 1 2021. 

The UK has agreed to provide duty-free and quota-free access to goods from Kenya and in exchange, Kenya will gradually relieve tariffs, except on some sensitive goods. It is a consequence of Britain’s exit from the European Union and represents an opportunity for Kenya as it maintains market access for Kenya as the only non-least developed country LDC) in the East Africa Community (EAC). Kenya is now classified as a Lower-Middle Income Country by the World Bank and meanwhile, all other members of EAC will continue to benefit from duty-free quota-free access. 

Both countries have published some guidance on the agreements, with the UK interpretation and FAQ on what this means for British businesses, as well on the Kenyan side at the Industrialization Ministry.

Summary of the EPA guidance documents:

  • Kenya is the UK’s 73rd largest trading partner and total trade between the two was £1.4 billion in 2019. UK Revenue found that 2,502 VAT-registered British businesses exported goods to Kenya and around 433 imported goods from Kenya.
  • Top 5 UK goods exports to Kenya (in £ million): Vehicles other than railway or tramway stock(67) machinery and mechanical appliances (63), pharmaceutical products (27), electrical machinery and equipment (25), paper and paperboard (19).
  • Top 5 UK goods imports from Kenya (in £ million): Coffee, tea and spices – mostly black tea(121) edible vegetables – mostly green beans (79), live trees and plants – mostly cut flowers(54), machinery and mechanical appliances (21), preparations of veg, fruit or nuts (7). The UK also note that some Kenyan flowers sold to UK consumers may not be counted as they arrive via flower auctions in the Netherlands.
  • UK exports to Kenya will be reclassified from being EU-originating to UK-originating and UK goods transiting through the EU will lose this designation. UK companies also simply can’t label a product as being from the UK, it has to meet some composition criteria.
  • Goals: There will be more favourable trade treatment by the UK for Kenya exports over third countries. Kenya will promote UK private investments and already, the UK is the largest foreign investor in Kenya with over 220 British companies having an investment portfolio estimated at £2.7 billion (Shs 385 billion) and trade between the two countries at Shs 70-90 billion. The Ministry notes that Kenya has continuously enjoyed a favourable trade balance since 2016. The highest was Shs 8.6 billion in 2018 when the value of Kenya’s exports was Shs 40.2 billion, relative to imports valued at Shs 31.6 billion.
  • Expansion: The agreement can be reviewed every five years. If a country denounces the agreement, the effect will happen one year later. The agreement is open to all East Africa Community partner states and will be updated to reflect ascension when it is approved by other EAC countries. The UK includes Great Britain, Northern Island, Gibraltar, Channel Islands and the Isle of Man.
  • Wiggle Room: If a country has balance of payment difficulties, it may adopt some measures regarding the trade of goods in a non-discriminatory way and for a limited duration. Already the UK accepts that elimination of tariffs will be a challenge for Kenya.
  • Scope: The agreement does not cover taxes, security matters such as arms & wars, or other trade negotiations under the WTO.
  • Governance of the agreement will be by an EPA council (of Ministers), a committee of senior officials (of Permanent Secretaries), and a consultative committee (of the private sector & civil society).
  • Some sectors cited: Trade on fish (tuna, marine and inland), standards, sustainable agriculture, rural development. The UK will work to make Kenya goods more competitive including by training of staff. Also, a vessel monitoring system will be mandatory for sea-facing nations in the EAC.

The document is open for “public participation” and Kenya’s Parliament has now invited public views into the Economic Partnership Agreement between Kenya and the United Kingdom. Views are to be emailed to the Clerk at Parliament by February 11.

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Brigid Kosgei, Stanbic Bank Kenya Ambassador

Stanbic Bank Kenya has appointed Brigid Kosgei, the world record-holder in the women’s marathon, as the brand ambassador for “It can Be”, making her the face of the campaign in the country. The bank will work with her on her passions of education and community development while also advising her on wealth management and entrepreneurship.

The 27- year-old is the two-time winner of the London and Chicago marathons. She is the current holder of the women’s marathon world record, a time of 2 hours, 14 minutes, and 4 seconds which she set at the Chicago Marathon in 2019, smashing the previous record time of Britain’s Paula Radcliffe that had stood for sixteen years, by an astounding one minute and 24 seconds.

For all the acclamation and adulation that Kenyan track athletes receive, especially during the Olympic games, this is a rare event as Kosgei is one of the few female athletes in the country to land a major partnership deal and with a top brand – Stanbic is the largest bank group in Africa. Other smaller deals in the past went to Pamela Jelimo with Milo and Edna Kiplagat with Bank of Africa.

At the announcement event for the partnership, Kosgei, who hails from Kapsait in Elgeyo Marakwet county, spoke of the hardships she has overcome from being unable to finish her schooling, missing her first flight and other steps she has stumbled on in her life’s journey. Then, when she started in marathons, with encouragement and guidance from her coach, on how she improved her times racing Porto, Milan, then Lisbon and on to Chicago. She also spoke of her training for the Tokyo Olympics that was postponed from 2020 due to Covid-19, and which she plans to be ready for, once the event dates are confirmed.

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