Read an article from the Washington Post where the Chairman on the US Securities & Exchange Commission, Christopher Cox, is intrigued by the idea of using blogs to disseminate important corporate information.
“A 2000 rule known as fair disclosure ended a long-standing practice of companies providing significant information to stock analysts and other Wall Street insiders ahead of the public.”
Monday’s naked insider manipulation of Citi Trust shares should have been a wake up call for NSE on information and rules for prices and trades. Watch to see if there’s any recall or punishment stemming from the ill-fated trade.
This is very important because currently pension funds, Kenyans in the Diaspora, farmers and other new investors are all stepping into the market and things like the Citi Trust fiasco tend to undermine our confidence in shares. The share splits of EA Cables and ICDCI were self-fulfilling prophecies – share price shoots up about 6X in a few months, leading directors to announce splits to make them more affordable.
”when you attract foreign investors, you also attract criminals who specialise in economic crimes” – Tommy Prins of Deloitte
Related NSE needs EDGAR
New age for investors
The Nation’s Weekly Advertiser interviews the brains behind Eight.co.ke, Jijini Markets and Stock Detective who offer financial information on activities at the Nairobi Stock Exchange. Pick up this weeks’ free copy of the newspaper around town in Nairobi and hopefully the story will appear soon on their website. (ed: none are affiliated with the NSE)
Upcoming @ NSE
– Barclays Rumour: The Bank will announce a 5 for 1 share split and a 1 for 38 bonus. Note: I don’t own any Barclays shares
– Riba Capital tips on the next Mumias offer.
– Family Finance Building Society will offer 15 million new shares to account holders at 60 shillings each (minimum placement is 30,000 shillings). The ongoing offer runs to the end of the month and may overshadow the, rather low key, Eveready IPO (which starts next Monday) in the same way Equity Bank’s listing stole the limelight (and perhaps investor cash) from Uchumi’s re-capitalizations earlier this year.
Family Finance mimics Equity which also raised 500 million shillings in capital in August 2005. FFBS was expected to be a licensed as a commercial bank by June 2006 but that has likely been delayed by the Central Bank until they shore up more share capital.
Banks. who is behind Jijini markets? seems like its the NSE, just wondering what kind of startegy they have with such a website. Why not open up the data feed to independent software vendors? they might generate more revenue that way rather than competing with the likes of eight.co.ke. makes me wonder !!! Good info on familyfinance, i would definitely buy the shares but being in steto and all that does not give me good advantage. Sometimes i wish i was on the ground, might have minted more chums being a day trader back home. with winter and all it really sucks right now, only sunshine is that the GOP lost control of the house, and might be losing the senate too!!! But love them or hate them, we made good money in the real estate boom, lets see if the stock markets will pick up now. Good job Banks.
B,
Mr Raila claimed that drug money is finding its way into the NSE. Now, since some very senior ministers(Michuki,Kimunya, et al) reacted quickly and denied this, and given that Mr Raila hardly bluts non-sense(e.g. the Armenians case) there may be some fire. Are you bold/safe enough to say something to this end?
Hi Mashatall,
I am one of the individuals behind Jijini Markets and we appreciate your feedback.
The NSE is not behind the site and neither are we competing with other websites for revenue but rather offer the site free for investors to be better informed and equipped. Indeed we started the site as we are investors in NSE stocks and required tools to access and analyse NSE data.
Presently we are not focussed on generating revenue as we concentrate on adding and improving the site’s functionality. For the moment you could consider the site to be a form of NSE data blog…
Regards,
Jijini Markets
Not only does the NSE need EDGAR, but also a more comprehensive and user-friendly website like that of the JSE http://www.jse.co.za
On looking at the Jijini Markets site, the NSE profile and contact info on its homepage can lead one to think Jijini & NSE are closely affiliated. Only when one clicks the “About” tab, does Jijini’s background pop up. Can be a wee bit confusing….
SPREADING BENEFITS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH
Does economic growth ever signify improved fortunes for the citizens? This is the important debate that has been raging as two separate but somewhat related events took place in the last two weeks. On one hand the World Economic Forum held its annual meeting on Africa, under the theme ‘Going for Growth’. The meeting acknowledged that Africa’s average economic growth rate of 4.5% last year was inadequate to generate enough employment.
In Kenya the annual Economic Survey was released indicating that the economy grew by 5.8%, heralding much debate on the figures presented. Mine is not to digest economic theory but to ask ‘where do we go from here?’
A few issues have since crossed my mind. One I was reminded that in order for a nation to double its per capita income it must grow at an average 8% for a successive 10-year period. ( Before you dismiss me do your math and check out how long that 1,000 shillings will translate into 2,000 if it was earning an 8% interest per year.)
Secondly I was reminded that we have over 2 million unemployed Kenyans while close to 450,000 join the job market every year on completion of schooling at various levels of education, yet the government gets bashing over the issue of 500,000 jobs per year, instead of focussing on how we can increase the number of jobs created.
These realties therefore must form the basis of our national debate on the way forward on matters economics.
When President Kibaki took over the management of the country’s affairs he set out a target economic growth rate of 7% by 2007. In 2002 the economy grew by 1.8%, which means that in his fourth year in office the President has moved the growth rate 4 percentage points and could as well be on course to achieve the 7% growth by next year.
The President deserves more credit for his economic stewardship than he is currently getting. Politicians who had previously dismissed his leadership are thinking twice, and must make their contribution to focussed debate on issues that can help consolidate the economic gains.
In his June 1st speech President Kibaki outlined ways of ensuring that the country’s growth is shared and felt by more Kenyans who have had to suffer the pain of poverty. The President fully acknowledged that ‘ some sections of our country are yet to feel the full impact of our economic growth’, but clearly outlined what measures he is undertaking to correct this state of affairs.
Slow return on social investments
If truth be told the current government has engaged in one of the most ambitious social investment programs in the nations history. Social investments in areas like education and health are long term in nature and take time to pay dividends. South Korea for example achieved universal access to primary school education in 1960 and this was to pay-off in their industrialisation age with a steady flow of skilled and semi skilled labour in the nascent industries in textiles, electronics, vehicle manufacturing and assembly.
Challenges and Realities
We are also facing other stark realities in some of the growth sectors, where growth may not have translated in more jobs or increased wages. For example in tourism, after years of slow tourist arrivals we are now witnessing a steady flow. More people are now assured of their jobs for a longer period of time- those who only secured employment for the four months high season are now getting more months employment- so jobs may not have increased but they are more regular.
If you look at the tea and horticultural sub-sectors and E.P.Z.’s, the increased export earnings may not be translating in an increased wage bill, but what we should be debating is how employees in these areas can earn a fairer wage that will not out price Kenya in the global labour market.
In the public service the government has made effort to better pay the public service, leading to a higher wage bill. The government is however focussed on having a leaner, better paid and motivated public service that can guarantee efficient service delivery.
Productivity curve
Again here we must subject both the public service and our better paid members of parliament to the productivity curve. This curve basically indicates that the productivity of any employer rises with increased pay up to a certain level when productivity stagnates and thereafter any further pay increases actually lead to reducing productivity.
Economic model
Debate is also raging on what economic model we shall adopt as a country. Kenya now has a rich history of ups and downs. The government for example cannot completely withdraw from business. The China economic model is based on one big entrepreneur called the government that is able to control the whole production cycle – from cost of power, cost of money and transport to the value of the local currency vis-a vi the dollar. This has helped Chinese goods and services to be some of the most competitive around the world.
In Kenya, the government should be allowed to play some role especially in agriculture that is our mainstay. We cannot subject our farmers to extremes of external competition while remaining at the mercy of extremes of weather.
Kenya government can be a price stabiliser – e.g. the role of K.C.C., K.M.C an d N.C.P.B.
But while encouraging our farmers we should strike a balance between good producer prices for our farmers and urban consumers who must not be subjected to high food prices especially day to day consumables like maize flour, milk and sukuma wiki.
Way forward-sharing growth
So what are some of the suggestions and current interventions?
Value addition in agriculture is a must- if we are to deal with poverty- there must be as few middle men from the moment our farmer harvests his French beans to the time when the product lands in the supermarkets and kitchens of Europe.
The Land reforms that the government has begun should be supported and encouraged not politicised. Land still remains the biggest factor of production in an agricultural country like ours.
It is important to encourage new age industries in I.C.T. but we must remember that even countries like India that embraced I.C.T. over ten years ago, only 250,000 jobs can be directly attributed to the sector. The fact is that an agrarian revolution still remains our best bet at poverty alleviation.
Infrastructure development- need for innovative ways of raising funds locally. Initiatives towards introducing infrastructure bonds should be fast tracked, as suggested by the President in his Madaraka Day Speech.
We must unlock the funds for small enterprises- President has made several appeals to parliament to pass S.M.E. laws- big business should be encouraged and made to feel obliged to supporting local artisans and entrepreneurs.
C.D.F.’s must be taken to the next level- a people who were punished through harambees as their chicken were forcibly sold to raise funds must demand a say in the use of C.D.F money. These must not be used to satisfy the whims of the political class but there must be a deliberate effort at funding poverty alleviation projects.
Water access must be a priority – the benefits of saved time by our mothers who have to fetch water and the hygiene and health benefits of access to clean water cannot be overstated. Constituencies should have goals of reducing the distance families have to travel to fetch water- and this should be brought down every year, through CDF initiatives.
Planned urbanisation- what the President has consistently called making our urban centers better and more secure places to live and work in. The rallying call of turudi mashambani may have been a well- intentioned policy but now we must face the reality that as our people get more educated the attraction to urban centers is very real. This is the reality check that will see more investments in our upcountry urban centers and make them more attractive and ease the pressure on the city.
Form of protection for local industries- even if not on the scale of the import substitution scale for our industries. The protected young Asian industries producing sub-standard goods in the 60’s and 70’s are today the multi national corporations producing goods for the world that Europe and America can no longer produce competitively. In another few years the labours costs of Asia will no longer be competitive but the shift of the production bases will only be to countries that are well prepared. The debate on our competitiveness should be getting good coverage in our media.
Kenyans must get value for money- President has already asked that the timeline and cost of roads be published along roads under construction-bonds for infstraructure development.
Democratising our co-operative societies that remain the best avenue of mobilisng savings and cheaper credit
Constitution and coalition politics- need for future power sharing agreements to be based on a new or current constitution to avoid the kind of impasse Kenyans were treated to in the first 3 years of NARC rule and which is already exhibiting itself in current political re-alignments.
Improved security-need for all to support community policing
Dealing with AIDS, malaria and tuberclosis- as the First Lady Mrs Lucy KIbaki has said we must stop glorifying condom use among the youth. It has been proven that Voluntary Counselling and Testing Centers remain a great leap forward in the fight against HIV/AIDS
Finally I wish to emphasis the importance of the media in re-focussing debate and its important role in determining the national psyche.
The media deserve great credit for informing Kenyans on the opportunities of the just concluded KENGEN I.P.O. and should do more to educate Kenyans on some of the opportunities that exist in the economy. Getting our people to enjoy the full benefits of shared economic growth will benefit from sharing of information relevant to the challenges of our times.
@kenya77
This is a blog,not a publishing house, so brevity matters.
govt bloggers – damn
bankelele can you delete this attempt at NARK-KIKUYU propaganda by kenya 77 off our beloved, non partisan blog.this is the only avenue left for us sane kenyans to get away from the tribal-infested bullshit politics
@kudrinketh
aye Aye…wholly concur with you and hope Kenya77 can start his own political blog, where ha can spew his Narckenya propaganda. Am starting to hate this Kibaki govt., using innocent investors to raise campaign chums on the NSE is not the best way to pretend we have vibrant markets.(go on a fundraising tour like Raila, at least we know the sources) How do you explain ICDC share rise when they are not even making more money than Kengen? what fundamentals support the rise of sameerafrica?? Its one thing to slant gove. resources to your advantage, but when you ride on the backs of ignorant investors at the bourse? thats wrong!!! Kimunya should actually resign for doing a shoddy job with the capital markets, who cares about microfinance institutions who lend out peanuts? when the biggest rip off in the history of kenya is happening right under his watch at the NSE?? Time will only tell and i hope we have a Joe Donde who will become our saviour for the NSE corrption machinery.
Banks,
Please clarify on the FFBS share issue. What do you mean it is to ‘accountholders’?
kenya77 did you hide your address so that you blog on other people’s blog?
what i still dont get is how some pple are able to predict the price movements so precisely to the digit! you know am begining to fear that soon we have have a fatal crush
Banks: Public or Insider Info?
I think is a major driver of share prices currently. As much as we want to believe there is improved liquidity in our markets I think whats happening is that the number of UNINFORMED investors has increased and the INFORMED investors(read ‘insiders’) are making a killing at their expense.
All in all I think barlays could hit Kes: 1,500.00
Anonymous: U can check out my blog for more on Family Finance private placement.
Kenya77: Say hi to the president next time you meet.
Banks,
You really need to delete everything Kenya77 posted on this blog. Because we all have political opinions and we leave them out of this blog. Because this blog is not a political propaganda medium. It is pretty obvious that this ‘blogger’ with a temporary account is out to spread propaganda. He can post a few lines and give us a link to his blog if he is genuine. His posting is too long – I read through it thinking I will get to anything of substance, Lakini wapi! Kenya77 needs a reality check and he better get this somewhere else.
Mashatall: Answeres later in the comments about Jijini. FF shares look good, but i’d like to see how valuation was done, the rest of the share capital & owners etc. And there’s no prospectus.
toiyoi: don’t know if there’s that much drug money in the country. maybe money from unexplained sources (evasion, corruption). But again, Raila turned out to be right about the Armenians
Jijini Markets: keep it up
Mitzy: At least the NSE update the price list daily – which shows that with more interest, they might improve the site.
kenya77: Your comment is too long to digest. Seems to be a speech or class paper you presnted elsewhere. Please refer to the subject here.
Kudrinketh & keiffy: agreed
to all: There’s a reason I had stopped accepting anonymous comments. to answer only one, you can open an bank account with family finance (e.g. savings or current) – and that will make you eligible to take part in the shares placement.
Mashatall: The ATS and CDS are not working as envisioned, rather they seem to have facilitated this suspicious trading
Odegle: Hope not – it would undermine many years of hard, good, work.
Riba Capital: I hope we can do our part by shining a light where teh informed take advantage of the uninformed. BBK up 24% today. I wonder how many will be left hanging like those who took in ICDCI near 800/=
Nimechoka: I’ll leave it up till I understand it, and for others to learn from it.
I think Kenya77 has actually made some very good points. It’s obvious that many people on this board are anti-narc/anti-kibaki, but if you read his entry, he has articulated some important issues.
I’m always amazed at how people think that they can separate politics from business. Everything is inter-connected. The reason africa is so poor today is because of bad public policy/bad government! Businesss does not operate in a vacuum!
People here are already complaining about insider trading on the NSE..well, guess what folks? that’s a rule of law issue that will eventually have to be addressed by government.
Tried to look at the speech.
IMHO: The reason why politics is avoided in such blogs is because it is very difficult to look at political-economic issues objectively. Especially when peoples’ feelings on other determinants of politics like sectarianism run so deep (be they religious,regional or tribal)
By the way it been 4+ years now and we have not hit a would have been +10% growth … oops; that’s political!
dudej:
well…you’ve hit almost 6% (not great, but it’s a start)
I think younger kenyans are less tribal and as a result, can be far more objective.
For the NSE to thrive and work, the country is going to have to institute strong securities laws. the rule of law (which is a governance issue) is an essential element of capitalism.
Banks I wont deny that I support the government but I think a non partisan blog (such as yours).means that both the government and opposition supporters are free to air their views on any given issue concerning the economy.
I will however keep my comments in the future short, to the point and inline with the subject matter.
thank you kenya77.
In future keep the comments short.
@kEntrepreneur
We are not Anti Kibaki or narc kenya just because we hold a different opinion, even Bush was sidelined by his core conservative base since they felt he didnt do a good job in Iraq.thats why the Dems have taken control of the house and senate. What am i saying? that some of us have become just as bad as the Moi cronies during the Nyayo era !! see no evil, hear no evil.BTW am a kyuk but i have my own principles and poliical ideologies at the end of the day. what the govt. has done is commendable, but we cannot stop pointing out the mistakes made because in the long run they end up hurting everybody. ask the kaleos in rift valley who had already given up on farming during the Nyayo era!!
@ KE
We already have lots of avenues for airing political opinions so i think we have every right to be apolitical in this blog.
The reason most of us stay away from politics is because ours is a very tribal, non-issue driven politics, just go to mashada and see all sorts of tribal name calling that goes for politics,we just dont want that here.
Not to underestimate political influence on business, but what are we to do when majority of kenyans refuse to be objective in their political analysis, choosing to just use tribal tunnel vision.
Its obvious that politics and the economy are closely intertwined. The economy cannot grow if there is bad governance. Apart from Kenya77 post being rather long, he articulated some great points; that the economy and almost everything else has improved. Though we may be more ambitious, i feel the last 4 years have been a fair start
Banks, Jijini is a good start but still needs work to get to where First Global, Stocks kenya or Eight are in terms of nitch.
Apolitically speaking, must agree that Kenya77 went overboard. Though some of the points are legit, i.e. economic growth and way forward, still was too one sided to make for a good post. Only concern from all the comments is that it somehow draws out political stands.
KE: You can figure out who is young and who isn’t on the blogsphere from their political standpoint???
So Banks, are you legitimizing insider trading by sharing on the barclays thing on blogspot? What defines the fine line between insider info and stock tips/predictions?
kenyanentrepreneur: He has some good point about the economy. I’ll attibute some of the improvements to the President, some of his ministers and Ps’s – but what has Narc Kenya (the new party) done for the economy?
I agree that the NSE & CMA need to institute better laws.
dudej: There’s enough written about politics elsewhere and I like reponding to it elsewehere such as the voting booth
kenya77: Your views are welcome. I’d prefer if they’d enrich the disusssion at hand, not take it off on a new tangent. You raise some valid points which is why the post is still up
Mashatall: In 2007 I will look at the president’s performance as I will look at my MP’s. I have already written before that, based on the improved (rural) reconomy, Kibaki is a good bet to retain the presidency. But again, having a good economy did not save the republicans in the US this week
Kudrinketh; I agree, there are enough political blogs and forums where politics is better addressed
mushenzi: True you cannot separate politics from the economy. remember siasa mbaya, maisha mbaya?. But amid the good the government has done e.g. new issues of Kengen, Mumias, Kenya Re, tax breaks for IPO’s etc, they must also address the loopholes being used at the NSE to manipulate prices and fleece uninformed investors.
mwasjd: The more information sources (and that are free) we have, the better. I mentioned Barclays as a rumour because I heard, but I had not seen media reports, confirming the split & bonus. but of course brokers had known by then.
mwasjd:
I meant that there’s a generation of younger kenyans who are far less tribal than their parents (generally, the under 35’s)…& as the older people die out and retire, the country will become less tribal. These people can discuss politics without a tribal dimension. in 20 years, kenya will be a far less tribal country.
@KE: kwani this mungiki youths are over 35 and thsoe guys fighting in molo and kuresoi are they over 35 too? i dont think so ….oops no politics
@kenyanentrepreneur
What you imagine and hope is good, BUT it will take over 2000 years for it to materialize IFF you have the right education and somehow change people’s heart. So after 35 do they continue being atribal or what happens after 35?. Remember Yugos.. split becos of (Albanians/Serbs) hate. Its all about ethnicity. The evils that A sought to correct were carried out by B about 1000 years ago.
@Banks, on NSE and Madawa money: just saw this where FCO minister claims some staff about madawa money in KE. Maybe be related.
The main culprit in insider trading is CMA. See their objectives”The principle objectives of the Authority include: 1. The development of all aspects of the capital markets with particular emphasis on the removal of impediments to, and the creation of incentives for longer term investments in productive enterprises;2. To facilitate the existence of a nationwide system of stock market and brokerage services so as to enable wider participation of the general public in the stock market;3.The creation, maintenance and regulation, of a market in which securities can be issued and traded in an orderly, fair, and efficient manner, through the implementation of a system in which the market participants are self regulatory to the maximum practicable extent;4.The protection of investor interests;
5. The operation of a compensation fund to protect investors from financial loss arising from the failure of a licensed broker or dealer to meet his contractual obligations; and 6. The development of a framework to facilitate the use of electronic commerce for the development of capital markets in Kenya.
As for their rules:LEGAL NOTICE NO 125 of 19th July, 2002 – THE CAPITAL MARKETS (LICENSING REQUIREMENTS) (GENERAL) REGULATIONS, 2002 pra 24 states:
24. (1) No stockbroker or dealer shall:-a)create a false market in any listed security by way of
associations.any artificial device including but not limited to advising clients to buy or sell a particular security while selling or buying through its dealing or related party transactions, without disclosing that fact to the investors;(b) establish a corner or trade where a corner has developed in a listed security;
(c) negotiate on any issue relating to trading with any other person on the trading floor of the securities exchange;(d) be party to any trading and price manipulative scheme or device which may directly or indirectly influence or interfere with the market price formation and fair trading process with respect to any listed security;
For them to address the current burning issues new laws might be needed to address enforcement. The ball then goes back to our MPs.Considering it took around 10 yrs to legislate and actualise the CDS we might have to wait a while longer.Insiders who are the big players are merely taking advantage of our laws and lack of investor information.
Unfortunately almost everything in Kenya today is reactive due to lack of information. Remember the 60s motto of fighting “poverty disease and ignorance” !
Wow! i love this blog.
It’s true “Siasa Mbaya Maisha Mbaya”
On the issue of Insider Info, when the ICDC started going up, i was informed by a friend to buy the shares coz they were to sell very high. I ignored. Now i have been told Family Finance is headed on the same route. Am keeping my eyes well opened.
I have ‘Heard’ tht this is being done intentionally by the big tummies who almost own the NSE, and i too don’t like it at all.
The best way to gey Informed is as bankelele says, through Free Information.
I believe tht most of us all are in a good position to give proper advice and prediction on the movement of the NSE stocks. I hate when one loses just coz you had poor information not because of ignorance (which another case all together) but because of Limited access to Such info.
Kenya77: There are achievements yes, but things can get better. Sample this:
Sharing growth:
Despite the verbiage, it is obvious the Government bureaucracy doesn’t know how to trickle down the fruits of economic growth to the poor. Few examples surfice: (a) the City council of Nairobi only collects fee but does not bother about creating a conducive environment for business leave alone business promotion. (b) the Ministry of Trade which would have linked small businesses to microfinance has not done so. It has also not taken advantage of AGOA.
Tea Sector: the KTDA farmer takes home what he was taking 10 years ago. So much for replacing the A of KTDA (Authority with Agency).
Co-op Sector: Despite democratizing this sector, Saccos maybe, the Co-op sector structure is of the 60s when societies were poor. Layers need to be removed for the farmer to benefit.
Economic model: Govt. ownership is too labyrinthic for the ordinary investor to comprehend. Consider GOK-Telkom(loss)-Safaricom(profit) and Telkom to be NSEd first(why is Econet not operating? The law maybe), the KPLC, KenGen and ERB tariff saga and who has the final word.
CDF: Good but needs operational systems and procedures and linkages to the MACRO projects not to mention design standards.
Microfinance:This is the missing link to poverty eradication. New microfinance bill addresses prudential regulation. The poor however fit in non-prudential regulation. I hear in South Africa even shylocks are recognized by the law.
MPs: The law is stone age and they don’t know or are happy to snooze in the status quo. Examples: Company law: 1948, in the ICT age; Corruption: Auditor General, EMU, Inspectorate of Parastatals, PAC, PIC, KACC, Police Investigation, Prosecution, Courts(what is the procedure ? – Is it any wonder that the AG and “Between the hammer and the anvil” are passing the ball to each other to the glee of the media on their way to the bank and us spectators enjoying it thoroughly).
Media: Reactive, specialize in what sells(sensational) irrespective of whether it is true or not. Do they research ? Example:Why the investor information gap on NSE ?
roughalmasis dont shot from the hip. i never said everything is perfect but the acievenments made so far should be acknowlegded. There is adistinct difference between working to where we want to be and noisemaking just for the sake of it (read odm)
There’s a new player in town for monitoring price movement on NSE listed companies. Check http://www.stockspartner.com
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
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Now as such the final stages of the formal completion of nuclear deal has come,so we can expect some positive news effecting the
movement of the INDIAN STOCK MARKET which means stocks coming in power sector will take new direction
Companies which will benefited includes mainly
1.Larsen n Tourbo(LT)
2.Hindustan Construction Co. Ltd(HCC)
and the list had few more names..
Happy Trading
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