Category Archives: Safaricom

Urban Inflation Index: March 2009

Changes in the three months ago since my last review in December 2008 and also compared to February 2008, which was just over a year ago.

In 2009, oil prices and maize prices have become the national talk as scandals, shortages, and price hikes have plague these industries causing grave concern that the country could be destabilized.

With maize, a shortage of maize flour on supermarkets coupled with shady deals were highlighted in the media all leading to a motion of no confidence in Parliament against the Agriculture Minister in February 2009. it was shot down

In oil/petrol, the collapse of Triton petrol, a small politically-connected oil marketer had ripples across the industry. The firm appears to have made a big gamble and purchased and stored excessive stocks in the expectation that oil prices would remain high, but when they dropped, the firm imploded and the chief executive fled to India. It has become a monster scandal with staff losing their jobs, banks suing the government (through the oil storage and pipeline companies) and calls for another no confidence vote in Parliament, this time against the Energy Minister.

changes in the last three months

Gotten cheaper

Fuel: A Litre of petrol fuel (at local petrol station) is now Kshs. 75 (~$4.2 per gallon) which is about 20% cheaper than it was 92.7 in December 2008. Shell Petroleum led the price drop, forcing other oil marketers to follow suit and probably did in Triton with their price cut in December 2008. Petrol was Kshs. 88 a year ago

Unchanged

Staple Food: Maize flour which is used to make Ugali that is eaten by a majority of Kenyans daily. A 2 kg. Unga pack at Uchumi today costs Kshs. 96, compared to Kshs. 97 in December 2008. However it cost just Kshs. 52 a year ago

Communications: Despite the presence of two additional phone companies, the mobile price war has cooled and calls cost about Kshs. 8 (~$0.10) per minute. With Zain, the price applies across all networks, but for Safaricom it’s within their network only. New companies are offering gimmicks like Yu’s Kshs. 0.50 per minute (after making calls for two minuets at Kshs.7.50). However other prices, notably in data and equipment (handset prices) have dropped. Safaricom modem’s cost less than ½ their introduction price, and features like Picture messaging (SMS) now costs Kshs 3.50 ($0.04) (it was introduced at 20) a year ago Safaricom calls were also about 8 shillings per minute

More Expensive

Electricity: my bill last month is Kshs 1,800 – slightly less than the bill a year ago. However by looking at the components that make up the bill – fixed charge is Kshs. 240 (was 175 a year ago), fuel cost adjustment is 427c per kwh (was 199c a year ago), forex adjustment was 63c per kwh (was 31c per kwh) – all causing my bill to cost about 70% higher than my approximate consumption a year ago. This is also a sore point with Kenyan manufacturers and industries who have complained (PDF) about the high tariffs even as Kenya power & lighting company announced improved profits for 2008.

Foreign Exchange: 1 US$ equals Kshs. 80.07, it was 79.08 in December 2008. Remittances to Kenya which have dropped every month since October 2008, are partly to blame. US$1 was 70.7 shillings a year ago

Entertainment: A bottle of Tusker beer (at local pub) is Kshs. 130 ($1.60) up from Kshs. 120 in December 2008. East African Breweries, Kenya’s leading brewer, has complained about high input costs and new taxation, and for once their share price is almost as cheap as the recommended retail price of their main seller – a bottle of Tusker beer was 120 a year ago

Other food item: Sugar (2 kg. Mumias pack) is at 165, it was Kshs. 160 last December. 150 a year ago

EDIT: Also, more expensive is Housing – the rent was hiked 40% in January 2009; however that’s still about ½ what I’d be comfortable paying for a mortgage in the neighborhood.

Profit Warning Friday

KQ Profit warning for Who?
Kenya Airways issued a profit warning a few days after media reports had painted a rather rosy picture of operations at the airline with increased capacity and utilization. (That’s what happens when you release operating results without any shillings or dollar attached.

The fuel price, PEV, and reduced tourism has been well known within the investment community and this did not appear to impact the price until the actual ad and media corrections were carried in the newspaper, perhaps spooking retail investors and the stock is down 22% this week. The operational figures already show that the airline is in turnaround mode and is being hammered when it has already hit the bottom. I need to attend more investor briefings. Neither announcement appeared at the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) website where company quarterly announcements usually run

Profit warning at the NSE
On Thursday, the Capital Markets Authority (regulator) release a brief (copy here ) addressing issues perhaps that should have been said by the NSE. It noted that bear markets do happen (NSE declined 50% between 2000 and 2002), stockbrokers are in trouble (reduced activity, means low turnover and low commission), are restructuring (layoffs and branch closure s), and exposed (risks could arise from fraud. Nevertheless, shares are safe and better left to long-term investors!

We are not rogue this came a day after directors of Suntra Investment Bank, made a similarly candid admission of trouble ”business is so low at the moment that we are actually eating into our own funds” – one of the few times a financial institution has admitted being in difficulty, as they tried to contain damager (a single court case), but which left spooked customers flocking to transfer their shares

Executives on profit

  • Michael Joseph the CEO of Safaricom, Kenya’s most profitable company, launched an unusual rant against the government and business climate saying the first three things an investor needs in Kenya are (1) a generator (ii) a 4WD car (iii) a security firm – before they can even think about making any investment in Kenya. he said they spend 1.5 million euros on diesel and called the new universal service fund tax stupid as the mobile sector is already over-taxed
  • A man who sees no losses on the horizon is the CBK governor, who remains an eternal optimist after launching an infrastructure bond. Kenya plans to raise Kshs. 18.5 billion (~$245 million for roads, electricity generation & distribution) from investors who will pay a minimum investment of Kshs. 100,000 or ~$1,250). 12.5% interest will be paid semi-annually with principal repaid 2015, 2017, 2021. He had earlier commented that global meltdown should not have much impact because Kenya is primarily a rural agro-based economy

What else happening?

  • Kenyan knows Madoff: listed among the hundreds of fabulous fraudster Bernie Madoff’s clients is Sangare Ranch of P O Box 24 Mweiga Kenya Africa
  • Barclays Uganda counters rumours of a collapse/closure
  • Global credit rating of South Africa, previous rate triton high credit ratings of Kenyan companies with collapsed oil firm Triton downgraded to DD, Sasini’s ratings maintained at BBB+ (triple B plus) and A2 (single A two) for the long and short term respectively, and Eveready East Africa Limited downgraded to BBB+ (triple B plus) and A2 (single A two) for the long and short term respectively. Moody have downgraded Toyota today, so who’s safe
  • Fuel shortage was experienced in Nairobi – back and forth between Kenya pipeline company, ministry of energy, oil companies who all absolved themselves for any responsibility; Read more at Coldtusker
  • Who’s the Total Man at the NSE?
  • Mumias profit down 73% to 231 million at the half year on sales of 6.2 billion (down 8%)

Bank’s Need to Embrace MPesa

banks need to adapt to M-pesa, not fight it

A recent Nairobi Star story links banks to m-pesa probe in an underhand move to stifle the growth of mobile company Safaricom’s money transfer service – M-Pesa.

How much growth? As a recent article put it four million Kenyans can’t be wrong in reference to those who have signed up for the M-pesa and which the company recently stated to be clocking up to 10,000 new registrations per day!

Here’s why:

1. It makes sense and that’s all the law it needs Is it illegal and does it need more legislation? The answers are probably not and yes. Probably Not – because you can’t legislate everything, more so the simple payment of cash from person A to person B – whether a prostitute or a priest. And Yes, M-pesa agents need to beef up security, systems and training of staff as its popularity grows.

But the argument that M-pesa will be used for money laundering or other crimes is laughable – who launders less than $500? (Kshs. 35,000 is the maximum transaction amount on m-pesa) You are more apt to find a transfer of Kshs. 35 million at a bank – and banks were themselves used to prop up the numerous local pyramid schemes before they all imploded.

2. M-Pesa is affordable banking: Is it unfair? What’s to stop a bank from operating branch-less accounts? Several small banks have 1 – 3 branches and can comfortably and profitably serve their customers. Most Kenyan banks still don’t want to serve the unbanked and M-pesa has evolved because banking is still too expensive for the masses. There’s Mzansi in South Africa and in the absence of a similar program, Kenyan masses have created their own Mzansi in M-pesa. It is not Safaricom’s fault that they are so popular – take away m-pesa and people will go back to stuffing cash in tins, rolling them in blankets and mailing them in cartons on buses. They will not go back to open new banks accounts or queue at western union.

3. M-pesa is better than banks in some functions: Two scenarios
– Having a bank account is of no use sometimes, as one executive told me. She may be in Malindi looking to hook up Flavio Briatore or find Obama’s village (Nyangoma – not Kogelo) – her bank account is in Westlands (Nairobi) she has no way of reaching that money (avoid credit cards) – but her bank has no presence in many parts of the country, but from where she can access M-Pesa
– I received a small cheque payment of Kshs. 10,000 shillings ($130) that I deposited in my bank account on 19th December – today it’s 10 days later and the cheque has not cleared – reason is that four working days have not elapsed – (banks don’t count weekend or holidays – thought they work six days a week). What the banks does – transferring money from a creditor to a debtor (me) is no different than what M-pesa is doing. But with access to the same technology and similar resources, M-pesa takes 3 minutes, while the bank system takes 10 days.

4. M-Pesa is going to get more mainstream: More corporations are embracing the cost cutting and simplicity of M-Pesa. You can now pay for satellite TV (GTV), some insurance plans, and mutual funds (Old Mutual) by M-pesa. Next up will probably be two large companies that are in dire need of a cheaper alternative of money transfers
– Safaricom with its 800,000 new shareholders will probably have to pay a dividend next year. The use of text messages/e-mail and M-pesa will save the company millions of shillings that would be spent on printing, postage and cheque processing charges
– Kenya power & lighting company; as KPLC takes electricity to thousands of new customers in rural Kenya and inner cities, it has a dire need for cash collection points. It has used the banking system and the post office (paying an average Kshs. 30/= for each payment), but M-pesa would be a cheaper (for them) and more convenient option (for distant customers) who can also have been alerted by SMS on how much to pay.
– Also microfinance institutions (and shylocks) – who make small loans, for short periods of time. The sooner they can transfer funds, the clock is ticking, and their customer can access funds immediately and pay them back at the last minute without each having to wait for cheques to clear. M-pesa fits into the last minute thinking of many Kenyans – who tend to wait till the last minute to do many things including payment of electricity bills!

Banks need to change and embrace M-Pesa as it is able to do some things they can’t or won’t do. e.g. The lady in scenario one has a relationship officer at her bank, who can move her funds from one account to another – why not also enable her to M-pesa the next Ms. Briatorie her money? This can be an extra service from bank from which they can earn some income, instead of opening a branch in Malindi?

They should take a cue from other players such as

– Pesa point (ATM network) who may be losing some business to M-pesa but have now have embraced and partnered with them so that customers can withdraw cash from M-pesa 24 hours a day at any of their Pesa Point ATM
– Western union whose local money transfer system may have been eroded by M-pesa will now be the international arm for remittances through Safaricom’s M-Pesa
– Banks like Housing Finance and Family Bank already process M-pesa payments for their customers.

FYI
1. Are you a heavy M-Pesa user? Did you know you can get a statement of your M-Pesa transactions – a statement of the last three months costs Kshs. 500 from Safaricom, which is about what many banks charge for interim/instant statements
2. Want to become an M-Pesa agent?
3. Other interesting recent posts about M-Pesa.

Education Moment

Google hosted the latest skunkworks where the debate was how to design a better computer science curriculum. Present were a team from the Google EngEDU (Engineering Education) which works with campuses to mould student skills that will enable them to adapt to a work environment at Google, and through continuous learning within Google that feeds back into universities through training.

Present was a nice mix of professionals, programmers, coders, Google, who were ex-students of Nairobi, Kenyatta, JKUAT, Strathmore and other foreign universities.

So what ails the Kenyan computing curriculum?
– Universities are large factories, that focus on quantity (of students) not quality (of learning) to support their income streams
– Lecturers are lazy (don’t want to teach new concepts or learn new developments), instead they spend more time outside, on more lucrative consultancies
– Students are programmed to (cram) pass exams, obtain degrees and gain employment. Few are inspired to learn outside, or become developers. They accept poor learning, without challenge, and will riot over food but not poor lectures
– Engineering/ computer science curriculums are static, have not changed in years. It is difficult to change the curriculum as it involves all departments of university, and even consultation with the Government (for public universities)
– There is little research and publishing at universities
– There was an unresolved debate of why JKUAT is a ‘better’ institution for technology programs than Nairobi University which has more resources and ‘better’ lecturers

What can be done?
– Teach children more computer/programming skills (in high school) before university
– Universities should be encouraged to compete more with each other
– Corporations should establish mentorship programs
– More programming languages should be taught, even at schools e.g. python, .net, ruby, java, not just C++ and Visual Basic.
– Engineering students remain highly employable in other sectors like accounts and audit

What else is happening?
– Google now has a director for education for Africa (A sign of better things to come)
– South Africa has signed up to link with TEAMS (submarine cable), and Governments now recognize that skills shortage is the next critical area to address after bandwidth
– Google will be working with Strathmore, Nairobi, JKUAT and with other universities on design of better computer science curriculum.

elsewhere

Safaricom University: the latest Safaricom Options magazine talks about a corporate learning & development initiative the company has with Moi University that began in October 2006. Safaricom helps design the electrical engineering curriculum at the University to produce competent engineers with skills that are useable by Safaricom, with the top performing telecommunication bachelor of engineering students, currently in first and second year, eligible to be offered attachment places at Safaricom. The collaboration is next targeting a master’s telecommunications program (to be based in Nairobi). More on Moi and JKUAT collaborations.

Universities need Change: A very timely post this week from Gukira on the difficulty of doing research from a technological standpoint at Nairobi University. For one who is used to the research recourses available at a US university, Kenyan universities are rather close-minded about IT access to research students’ e.g.

– Internet resources are lamentably bad
– Printing costs are exorbitant.
– Could not get into the library could not even apply to get into the library
– Faculty members teach ridiculously high loads
Read more

Multimedia University: The Government has gazetted the establishment of the Multimedia University College of Kenya, formerly Kenya College of Communications Technology (KCCT)

Multimedia Cows: Over the weekend, I heard about Michigan State University research program with Maasai pastoralists – where they used GPS to track the movement of cattle and their grazing patterns to help pastoralists find pasture for their cattle easier, and by having to walk shorter distances.

University Blog: Diary of a Kenyan Campus Girl is a great read about university life by a female student studying computer science at JKUAT.

Pepsi to Kenya?

. Nairumour that after an absence of many years, Pepsi will re-enter the Kenyan market in the near future to resume battle with Coca Cola, possibly through their South African partners. If so, it will cap a great year for investment to the country, and that despite 2008 being a relatively tough year for investors and companies, with the post-election violence, business disruption, high fuel and energy prices, depressed consumer spending, P & P madness (pirates and politicians) collapsing stockbrokers, there was a steady flow of new investments and new products that happened this year.

Re-cap of some notable ones

Banking
– Takeovers concluded – Ecobank take over of EABS, and Stanbic merger with CFC (now CFCStanbic)
– UBA licensed (2009)
– Gulf African and First Community (Shariah banking kicks off)

Beverages
– Summit Lager a new beer from Keroche Industries
– East African Breweries launched Alvaro (malted soft drink)
– Coca Cola launched Novidia (another malted soft drink) and also started selling Minute maid
– KETEPA launched Safari Iced Tea

Communications
– WPP buys into Scangroup
– 2008 saw the launch of two new mobile operators – Orange (France Telkom) and Yu (Essar/Econet) to battle Safaricom and a re-energized Zain
– Altech buys into KDN
– A long-running fight over one(EASSY)submarine cable, gave birth to three different ones being laid to Mombasa
– Wananchi launched Zuku (TV, Broadband, Phone)

Transport, Energy & Manufacturing
– Tiger brands buying into Haco
– An investment in the Kenya Oil Refinery at Mombasa was still under battle between Libyan and Indian Investors
– Jinchuan (China) to bail out Tiomin?
– Mirambo and PD Toll to salvage the Rift Valley Railways
– Delta Airlines (USA – but postponed to 2009)
– Air Arabia started flights to Kenya

Tourism
– Libyans took over the Grand (Laico) Regency
– The Tribe opens.

Exits
– Chevron (Caltex) sold out – bought by Total
– Unilever (de-listing from the NSE)
– Roy Puffet from rift Valley Railways