Category Archives: NSE investments

Kenya Airways 2016 Results

Kenya Airways announced their results this morning at their Pride Centre in Nairobi. The CEO – Mbuvi Ngunze , Finance director and management all  referred to the airline being stable after a turbulent stall.

  • They flew 4.2 million passengers (up from 4.1M the year before) and  –  with about 11,500 passengers daily and 158 tons of cargo per day, they had a 68% cabin factor, which is decent for African routes.
  • With fewer aircraft – 36 (compared to 43 before) they operated more frequencies to the same 54 destinations.
  • Turnover went up 5% to Kshs 116 billion and management says they broke even on operations in 2016 compared to an 11 billion loss last year.
  • They reported a gross profit of Kshs 48 billion and operating loss as at March 2016 of Kshs 4.1 billion that’s 75% less than the Kshs 16.3 billion of the year before.

KQ wing JKIA

  • Fleet ownership costs were Kshs 29 billion –  up from the year before as the full cost of the arrival of the 787’s were felt. They also had to make provision for the aircraft that they are leasing out to other airlines.  
  • Net finance cost was Kshs – 7 billion, up from Kshs  from 4.5 billion. They had to pay more interest on their borrowing some of which were short-term, and in 98% of which are in dollars (taken when the US dollar was Kshs 75, but which now exchanges at Kshs 101).
  • Foreign exchange losses were Kshs 10.8 billion up from 1 billion, and Mbuvi said that, if the Kenya shilling did not depreciate, the loss would have been Kshs 10 billion smaller. They also had to book losses from countries like South Sudan which devalued its pound from  3 to 31 to the dollar.
  • Fuel hedges resulted in a loss of Kshs 5 billion.
  • Overall loss before tax of 26 billion, and the valance sheet went down from Kshs 141 to 128 billion. For shareholders, the reserves are now Kshs -51 billion.

Q&A

Ethiopia: What is Ethiopian doing right that KQ isn’t? KQ had some advantages, ET has some advantages. They operate a different network – we focus on Africa, they focus outside, and the frequencies into Addis and the frequency into Nairobi are different.

US flights: While the government is excited about category one upgrade of JKIA, Mbuvi said that their priority is code sharing with a US partner, more than doing direct flights themselves.

Currency reparation: Globally, airlines have $4 billion in non-repatriated currencies (with $400 million in Nigeria) and KQ faces challenges in Sudan, Nigeria, and Angola

Other: The last good year for tourism in Kenya was 2011, when there were 1.8 million tourist arrivals (it was 1.3 million last year) and 2017 will be an election year for Kenya. They are yet to assess Brexit impact but commodity slowdown and currency crunch has seen a slow down in the African routes they operate in.

They said the Government of Kenya and KLM, remain supportive of the company’s turnaround efforts which are embodied in Operation Pride, and this comes in a year in which they were voted the leading airline in Africa and leading airline for business class.

Kenya Airways 2016 Outlook

It’s time for Kenya Airways (KQ) to release their (March) 2016 results, later this week. They are coming off what was, arguably, the toughest year (2015) in their 39 year history, when they lost almost Kshs 25 billion. This was largely a result of their decade-old ambitious Project Mawingu that they the airline invested in coming up short.

inaugural Dreamliner

The plan was for a massive fleet and route expansion program to support the growth of passenger numbers in and through Nairobi and Africa. They bought new aircraft (mainly Boeing 787 ‘Dreamliners’), but the aircraft arrived a few years late, and when they did, the passenger numbers had not grown to match their expectations, and they were left with new and expensive equipment that operated below the expected capacity or remained idle. While the European routes are at 80% capacity, African routes are at about 60% and they get about 60% of their business flying around Africa, which has also become a very competitive region with  KLM, Ethiopian airlines and (now) 3 large Gulf-carriers competing for passengers out of Nairobi.

For the half-year, they reported a cabin factor of 68%, flew about 2.1 million passengers with revenue of Kshs 56 billion, but the half-year loss was Kshs 11 billion as the slowdown of commodity economies, terror alerts, route shut downs due to Ebola  and Nairobi (JKIA) runway repairs continued to affected the passenger numbers. The weakening Kenya shilling also contribute to their reported losses as they had to revalue their aircraft loans that are denominated in dollars.

In the year, the board also faced shareholders who wondered if they would be around in a year as they embarked on a  turnaround plan to stem the losses, secure funding for the future and fix the company  balance sheet.

Snooze and Lose Your Investments: Part II

Centum Investments, which recently announced a record profit, and the end of a seven-year deliberate dividend drought, has been running ads in the newspapers and online, asking shareholders to register their names & details via SMS to ensure that they get their payments on time.

At the same time, Centum has also published a list (PDF), on its website, of shareholders who have not claimed their dividends. The list has about 9,000 names, and that’s a shocking stat, considering that Centum  has about 37,000 shareholders.

No shareholder likes to lose out on a dividend or an investment. And regular shareholders who attend AGM’s have also been aware about resolutions at companies to comply with a legal requirement to  surrender unclaimed assets, including dividends, to the government.

Almost all large public companies, except those which listed recently, list & highlight their liability from unclaimed dividends (owed to shareholders) for many years in their annual reports. But if 25% of Centum shareholders, have not claimed their dividends, totaling Kshs 78 million after almost 8 years, it raises many questions about why this situation exists. But one reason could be that shareholders have been unable to receive their dividends because some companies and their registrars have made it very difficult for shareholders to prove, claim and receive their rightful dividends. lost shareholders

  • $1 = Kshs 100
  •  A  registrar is an institution,  responsible for keeping records of shareholders..and  when an issuer needs to make dividend payment to shareholders, the firm refers to the list of registered owners maintained by the registrar.
  • Centum ads say the registration is free, but normal SMS costs seem to apply.

M&A Moment: June 2016

Various deals in the last few weeks and months in East Africa

Banking:

  • Barclays sold 12% of Barclays Africa for $873 million, reducing its’ stake to 50.1%. In Kenya, the Central bank said their feel like `flower girls’ in the Barclays exit for which Barclays says it has attracted ‘over 100’ offers.
  • At Chase Bank suitors are lining up to buy the bank that’s now out of receivership. KCB and QNB of Qatar are tipped as leaders, but there are a few other mid-size banks said to be interested.
  • Cooperative Bank plans to do joint ventures to expand into Ethiopia and Rwanda following in the model that was successful in South Sudan. This will be in partnerships with co-operative societies in those countries.
  • Credit Bank is seeking an additional Kshs 5.4 billion from an investment group. The bank is wooing Fountain Enterprises Programme (FEP) to buy to 70% of the bank via a private offer priced at Kshs 180 apiece and limited to members of the chama (investment club) which has a large following in the UK and US. (via Biz Daily)
  • CBK has rejected takeover bids by 7 suitors of collapsed Dubai Bank, as the proposed investors have not provided bona fides.
  • Equity Bank is completing the acquisition of 79% of Congo (DRC), the 7th largest bank – ProCredit Bank for w Africa. It has 170,000 customers and only about 4% of their 85 million citizens  have bank accounts.
  • The Mwalimu SACCO/Equatorial Commercial Bank combination is going to be called Spire Bank (via Mwirigi)
  • Fidelity Bank is set to receive an investment from Duet Private Equity who will pay Kshs 1.9 billion to buy into the bank (no shareholders are exiting).
  • I&M is set to acquire 100% of Giro bank in a deal in which the owners of Giro will get 5% of I&M. Also, CDC is set to become the fourth-largest owner of I&M after it agreed to fully buy out DEG and Proparco, who hold an 11%  stake. The Competition Authority of Kenya has authorized the acquisition of 65% of Burbidge Capital by I&M.
  • Jamii Bora is looking to raise an additional Kshs 3.8 billion, comprising 800 million of debt and Kshs 3 billion from a strategic partner/investor.
  • Kenya Government: The National Bank of Kenya (NBK), Consolidated Bank and the Development Bank of Kenya will be consolidated into one or two institutions to make them stronger in coming months,  to make them stronger, Treasury secretary Henry Rotich has said.
  • The Kenya government also plans to create Biashara Bank form merging the Youth, Women’s & Uwezo enterprise funds) to cater for start-ups
  • Tanzania’s Bank M is set to acquire Kenya’s Oriental Commercial Bank, and be listed at the NSE. Bank M, a recent winner of best corporate bank in Tanzania has set up a holding company in Kenya (via Kenyanwalstreet)

Beauty & Pharma

  • The Competition Authority authorized the acquisition of 100% of Canon Chemicals by Godrej East Africa Holdings
  • Earlier the Competition Authority cleared the acquisition of the brands of Sigoria t/a Beuty Plus East Africa by Flame Tree Africa – this was part of the acquisition of the ‘Suzie Beauty’ brand and inventories for Kshs  45 million.

Food & Beverage

  • Centum made an offer to buy shares from some minority Almasi bottling shareholders.
  • The Competition Authority authorized the acquisition of Sab Miller by Anheuser-Busch Inbev.
  • Naked Pizza Kenya has been bought out by Pizza Hut (more here)
  • Coca-Cola Company  announced a new streamlined international structure. The company will form a Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) Group, consisting of the business units that currently make up the Europe and the Eurasia and Africa Groups. And, in Africa, two business units will be reconfigured to more closely align operations with bottling operations on the continent, with the formation of a new South and East Africa business unit and a West Africa business unit. (Edit)

Finance, Law, & Insurance

  • Helios did a deal for Crown Agents key units marking the first time an African-managed fund acquired a UK financial institution.
  • Ringier Africa Deals group (ex-Rupu) acquired Nigerian online shopping platform DealDey
  • The Competition Authority authorized the acquisition of an additional 16% of AON Kenya Insurance Brokers Limited by AON UK Holdings  giving it a controlling interest of 56%.
  • The Competition Authority authorized the acquisition of 63% of First Assurance Company by First Assurance Holdings  on condition that the merged entity shall retain all 120 employees of First Assurance Company
  • Resolution Insurance was set to raise Kshs 2.5 billion in a series of transactions that will see new investors join private equity firm Leapfrog Investments in the list of the company’s shareholders (via Biz. Daily)
  • Two of the oldest Kenyan law firms, Daly & Figgis (1899) and Inamdar & Inamdar (1926) will now practice as Daly & Inamdar.
  • Plum LLP plans to buy a 23% of insurer British-American Investments(Britam) that had been seized by the government of Mauritius from a disgraced businessman in 2015. (Edit)

Logistics, Engineering, & Agri-Biz

  • Google agreed to buy a 12.5% stake in Africa’s largest wind project, Kenya’s Lake Turkana, from Danish wind turbine manufacturer Vestas Wind Systems A/S. The 310-megawatt Lake Turkana wind park, controlled by Lake Turkana Wind Power, is set to produce about 15% of Kenya’s electricity needs (via Marketwatch).
  • The Competition Authority authorized the acquisition  of 100% of  Schreurs Naivasha by Kongoni River Farm.
  • The  Competition Authority authorized the acquisition of 49% of, and or 100% preference shares in, Seruji Limited by QG African Infrastructure 1L.P.
  • The Competition Authority  authorized the acquisition of assets of Lima by Panafrican Equipment – (Biwott)
  • The Competition Authority authorized the acquisition of 51% Transmara Sugar by Sucriere Des Mascareignes
  • The Competition Authority  authorized the acquisition of the assets of Afro Plastics Kenya  by Ashut Engineers.
  • Finlays Horticulture Kenya  was granted approval by the Competition Authority to buy Skytrain Limited, which provides the essential service to cargo airlines at JKIA (via Biz. Daily)
  • Swiss logistics giant Panalpina completed the buyout of a majority stake in Nairobi-based air freight forwarder Airflo for an undisclosed amount. (via Biz. Daily)
  • Craft Silicon will launch the Little Drivers service starting with 2,000 drivers — formerly of Easy Taxi, which exited the Kenyan and African markets last month after a decision by one of its investors, American firm Goldman Sachs, to direct all its investments towards Uber. (via Biz. Daily)
  • A British engineering firm that designed the iconic Burj Al Arab hotel in Dubai has acquired a Kenyan company, making Nairobi its African headquarters for property, energy and infrastructure deals. Atkins will build on the strong regional market presence of Howard Humphreys East Africa to grow its consultancy business lines including design, engineering and project management. (via Biz. Daily)
  • TransCentury Group reached a settlement with its majority convertible bondholders, reducing the debt from $80M to $40M as the company has secured an equity injection of $20M from Kuramo Capital, bringing the outstanding bond debt to USD 20M. (Edit)

Real Estate & Supermarkets 

  • The Competition Authority  authorized the acquisition of 100% of Vipingo Estate  by Centum Investments.
  • The Competition Authority  authorized the  acquisition of a further 40% of Two Rivers Lifestyle Centre  by OMP Africa Investment Company (Old Mutual.) Also at Two Rivers,  Carrefour has signed a 7-year lease that  guarantees some exclusivity.
  • The  Competition Authority authorized the acquisition of  Yako Supermarket by  Nakumatt Holdings, on condition that the merged entity shall retain all 283 employees of Yako Supermarkets.
  • Suppliers adopted Uchumi’s revival plan that included convert half of the debt owed to them into equity but Uchumi’s largest shareholder,  Jamii Bora Bank, said they were duped in investing in the chain two years ago.
  • Botswana supermarket chain Choppies finally succeeded in its quest to enter Kenya’s retail space through the acquisition of Ukwala

Telecommunications, Media & Publishing

  • The Competition Authority authorized the acquisition of 70% of Telkom Kenya  by Jamhuri Holdings (Helios)
  • Times Media Group paid a lot for half of the Radio Africa Group, but it mostly went to settle their debt that was $11 million (via #JKL #thismanpike)
  • Centum increased its stake in Longhorn to 60% in a recent rights issue (it was 31% before).
  • Bamba TV and Standard Group signed a Kshs 300 million partnership that will see KTN acquire a 50%  stake in Lancia Digital Broadcasting, the trademark owner of Bamba TV. (via The Star) (Edit)
  • Trace TV acquires African VOD Service Buni.Tv which is one of the 3 largest VOD services in Africa alongside Iroko TV and Naspers Showmax (Edit)
  • Longhorn Publishers is set to acquire 74% Law Africa Publishing for an undisclosed price. (Edit)

Other

  • The Competition Authority authorized the acquisition of 30% of KEG Holdings by Africa Bovine.
  •  The Competition Authority  authorized the acquisition of 51% of Universal Corporation  by Strides Pharma (Cyprus)
  • The Competition Authority of Kenya authorized the acquisition of shares in Stellar Investment Holdings by Catalyst OCL Investment LLC , pursuant to the provisions of a convertible debt instrument.
  • Marriott International have rebranded Protea Hotels to capitalize on the travel aspirations of Africa’s growing middle class and the increased presence of international hotel brands in Africa. The brand is now officially Protea Hotels by Marriott (Edit)
  • GardaWorld acquires KK Security: The international protective service firm had added KK Security to its global network which now includes 18 African countries, up from 11 before. (Edit)

Rumours

  • Tigo to buy out of Airtel Kenya?
  • Gossip blog Ghafla Kenya gets acquired by Ringier (via Techweez)

Industry Stuff

  • An investment banker’s worst nightmare .. buyers in $ billion deals didn’t use financial advisers 26% of the time.
  • African private-equity deals shrink to lowest level in three years as funds reach record closes?!
  • Africa private equity exits reach a nine-year high?!
  • UK business aviation feels that a Britain split from the European Union would be a very bad thing.
  • The African Development Bank is putting up a fund with $5 billion, specifically to incubate ideas from young Africans.

$1 = Kshs 100

Shares Portfolio: November 2015

Comparing performance to last quarter and a year ago, the portfolio is down 10% in the last three months, while the while the NSE 20 share index is down 4% since August 2015, but down 23% since last November.

The Stable

snoop

Atlas ↓
Barclays
Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↓
Centum (ICDCI) ↓
CIC Insurance ↓
Diamond Trust ↓
Equity ↑
KCB ↓
Kenya Airways ↓
Kenya Oil ↓
NIC ↓
NSE ↑
Stanbic (Uganda) ↓
TPSEA ↓
Unga ↓
Summary
  • For the second quarter, in a row, everything is down, except the NSE share price itself, followed by Equity Bank which is marginally!
  • In: Barclays, Stanlib Fahari (I-Reit)
  • Out: Safaricom, Scangroup, Mumias
  • Increase: Equity Bank, NIC
  • Decrease: None
  • Best performer: NSE (up 20%)
  • Worst performer: Atlas (down 73%) ,Bralirwa, Kenya Airways.
  • Unexpected Events: (1) Atlas bankruptcy, though the warning signs were there with the slowdown of exploration activities. It is mainly owed money by Tullow Oil and the Geothermal Development Company (GDC) (2) The collapse of Imperial Bank, which has had a knock on effect on other bank shares. (3) Kenya Airways half year results.