Category Archives: Mumias Sugar

Sugar Privatization in Kenya

Kenya has floated an international expression of interest for the privatization of five sugar companies.

The Government through the giant Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA), manages the sugar sector. The five are Chemelil Sugar Company, South Nyanza Sugar Company (SONY), Nzoia Sugar Company, Miwani Sugar Company (under receivership) and Muhoroni Sugar Company (under receivership).

The Government is seeking investors who will redevelop the factories into sugar complexes and manage them on lease for 25 years, turning them to profitability through modernization and efficient management. Investors, as individual or consortiums, will have to demonstrate familiarity with the sugar industry, submit regulatory documents (PIN, incorporation certificates, factory operation licenses), and prove their experiencing managing sugar plantations for at least 5 years, and their available financing.

The Government’s Privatization Commission has long had plans to privatize the sugar companies as part of a COMESA arrangement and to modernize Chemelil, rehabilitate SONY, expand Nzoia, and address the debts of Miwani and Muhoroni. It’s shareholding is 96% at Chemelil, 99% at Sony, and 98% at Nzoia. It also owns 49% of Miwani and 17% of Muhoroni through the Agricultural Development Corporation. Other government agencies with shareholding include the Development Bank of Kenya with 1.4% of Chemelil and 0.3% of Muhoroni respectively, IDB with 0.3% and 0.9% of SONY and Nzoia respectively, and ICDC with 0.7% of SONY.

To prepare the companies for this exercise, the government had undertaken balance sheet restructuring, writing off debts that the five owed to it, the Kenya Sugar Board, and to growers, as at December 31, 2019. They have also written off with taxes and penalties through 30 June 2019 and accrued up to date.

Recently, two governors, Wycliffe Oparanya of Kakamega and Anyang’ Nyong’o of Kisumu, writing on behalf of the Lake Region Economic Bloc, welcomed the Government’s decision to waive Kshs 62 billion (~$580 million) of debts owed by the firms. They also asked that a bill in Kenya’s Parliament direct that millers make payments to sugar farmers within 7 days of delivering crop and with these payments based on the sucrose content, rather than the weight of cane.

They also asked for a reintroduction of the Sugar Development Levy to ensure that farmers, counties, and the factories will have steady financial flows. Chemelil, Muhoroni and Miwani are located in Kisumu County, Nzoia is Bungoma, while SONY is in Migori county.

The deadline for the expressions of interest, that are to be submitted by sealed envelopes to AFA, is August 3. The bid documents will be disinfected (it’s Covid-19 season), and opened, with the results announced on August 4, 2020, at the AFA offices.

Urban Inflation Index July 2018

The running urban inflation Index compares prices of common goods In Nairobi to what they cost one year ago, five years and ten years ago when the index started.
The  July 2018 index comes at a time when there are sensational headlines about quality and counterfeits that was triggered by the drought of 2017 and subsequent importation of foods including sugar late last year.

It has also tricked into crackdowns, indictments, arrests, and parallel investigations by the Police, tax authorities,  parliamentary committees and food safety regulators that has seen queries about tons of goods including sugar, fertilizer, animal feed, building materials, alcoholic spirits, (refilled) LPG gas, auto spares, and sports shoes among other common items – with confiscations at the Mombasa Port, airports like Eldoret and bazaars and shops in Nairobi which have resulted in some demonstrations by business traders.

On to the index.

More expensive

Staple Food: A 2 Kg pack of Unga is Kshs 98 today. Last year, it was at a government-subsidized price of Kshs 90. In 2013 it was 104, and ten years ago, an Unga pack was Kshs 73.

Beer/Entertainment: A bottle of Tusker beer is Kshs 230 at the local pub. Five years ago a beer was 200, and ten years ago a beer was Kshs 130. Just a few months ago, during a tour of Kenya Breweries, the managers said that, based on the recommended retail price of Kshs 140 for a bottle of Tusker, Kshs 84 was tax, Kshs 23 goes to the distribution chain and just Kshs 33 was for them as a company to produce the beer at profit and to pay its shareholders.

Domestic electricity pricing over ten years of the inflation index.

Electricity: A chart of domestic prepaid electricity purchases shows that electricity was at its lowest in May 2015, and its highest in July 2015 and now in July 2018. One observation is that pre-paid power purchases no longer fluctuate. At the beginning of the month, one used to get 40 or even 50 units for Kshs 500 ($5), but now that amount only realizes 22 units and the pre-paid meters issue a (low-token )beep warning the whole month – and power tokens seems to exhaust a lot faster (because the units are less initially)

Other Food Item: Mumias, which used to be part of the index, was Kenya’s sugar industry bellwether – a diversified company that also produced ethanol and electricity and whose shares were once offered to the new investors at Kshs 49 per share. but which now trades at less than a shilling (Kshs 0.70) today. But Mumias now has no stocks on supermarket shelves as production was halted due to a lack of cane and long pending bills owed to farmers. A  2 kg pack of Mara, a competing sugar brand, is Kshs 298. A year ago, a bag of Chemelil sugar was 290, and five years ago Mumias sugar was 250, while ten years ago, a Mumias pack cost Kshs 145.

About the same

Fuel: Earlier this month, the ERC raised the price of petrol by 3 shillings – so in Nairobi a litre of petrol now costs Kshs 112.2 (approximately $5 per gallon). Last year a litre of petrol was Kshs 97.1, five years ago it was Kshs 109.52, and ten years ago it was Kshs 101.50 per litre. But from September 1 2018, Value Added Tax (VAT) which is 16% is expected to be added back to the cost of fuel.

Finance: Bank loans are 14.%, and have remained so ever since the introduction of interest capping in 2016. But the law is set to be adjusted this year by the government, in spite of opposition from parliamentarians who had passed the cap law. Also, average bank rates were 17% in July 2013.

Communication: Not much has changed in terms of phone rates over the last few years. At Safaricom which had (March) 2018 revenue of Kshs 224 billion, 40% of that was from voice, 28% from payments (such as M-Pesa), and 16% from data while SMS accounted for 8% of revenue. The cost of making mobile payments went up slightly in this year’s budget with a tweak in the excise tax on money transfers, and a charge on large bank transfers that has since been temporarily suspended by a Court.

Foreign Exchange: 1 US $ equals Kshs 100,75, while a year ago it was Kshs. 103.9. Five years ago it was 87.15 and ten years ago the dollar exchanged at Kshs 67.4. Also ten years ago the Euro was at 101, the Rand 8.9 and the Sterling Pound 125, while today the Euro is at Kshs 117, the Rand at Kshs 7.4 and the Pound at Kshs 133.

Other Energy Source: An LPG gas cylinder at Kenol is Kshs 2,250 this month. A year ago (in March) it was 2,030 and six years ago (2012) it was 3,000.

Less Expensive

Nothing really

Share this inflation index if you agree with the perceptions about what has become more or less expensive over the years.

If it were all left up to you, how would you improve the urban inflation index?

Urban Inflation Index September 2015

Tracking changes compared to five years ago

Gotten Cheaper

Utilities: An electricity in June 2015 showed that consumers incurred costs of 251(US) cents per kilowatt hour, and forex adjustment ones of 40 cents per kwh. Five years ago it was 340 cents per kwh while forex was 57 cents per kwh.

Communications: Call rates are between Kshs 2 – 4 per minute, compared to Kshs 8 five years ago, and SMS are now Kshs 1. There has also been a massive drop in the cost of mobile data. That said there’s a bit of turmoil in the industry. Safari com is diversifying into new segments like health and television, as Airtel is threatening to pull out. Meanwhile Orange is apparently for sale, and Essar folded their Yu brand just a few months ago.

About the Same

Beer/Entertainment:  A bottle of Tusker beer is Kshs 200 at the local pub compared to Kshs 170 five years ago. The competition from the introduction of several new beer and alcohol brands  (like Carlsberg) does not seem to have made prices lower.

Carlsberg Nairobi

Other food item

A 2 kg pack of (rare) Mumias sugar is now Kshs 240. Its rare because both Ucumi and Mumias are going through some transitions with financing, suppliers, and even new CEO’s  Meanwhile, there’s also the debate about whether and at what cost Kenya produces sugar compared to other countries like Zambia, Sudan and even Uganda. The same Mumias pack was Kshs 200 five years ago. Mumias troubles has resulted in other brands like Butali Chemelil Nzoia and other store and generic brands now getting space at supermarkets like Ucumi.

More Expensive

Foreign Exchange:  1 US$ equals Kshs 103 compared to 80 fiver years ago (actually today it’s 106) a steep rise that does not seem to have reached its bottom. This may be due to the strength of the dollar but other currencies have also strengthen due to the trade deficit

Staple Food:  Maize flour is used to make Ugali that is eaten by a majority of Kenyans daily. A 2 kg. Unga pack at Uchumi today costs Kshs 113 compared to Kshs 65 five years ago.

Fuel:  A litre of petrol is Kshs 102.6 petrol compared to 94.5 five years ago (but with the weaker shilling, in dollar terms it’s about $4.5 per gallon (down from $5.25 five years ago)

Shares Portfolio February 2015 

Compared to last quarter, the portfolio is up 26% while the NSE 20 share index is up 3% since November 2014.
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The Stable
Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↑
Centum (ICDCI) —
Diamond Trust —
KCB ↑
Kenya Airways ↑
Kenya Oil ↑
Mumias ↑
NSE ↓
Safaricom ↑
Scangroup ↑
Stanbic (Uganda) ↓
Unga ↑
Changes
In: None
Out: None
Increase: None
Decrease: None
Best performer: Mumias Sugar  (up 58% this quarter), then Kenya Airways  (38%)
Worst performer: Stanbic – Uganda (down -5%) , NSE (-4%)
Looking Forward To
– Bank profits & dividends from banks (KCB, Diamond)
– More M&A deals from Centum

Shares Portfolio: November 2014

Comparing shares to last year and last quarter, the portfolio is up 7% in three months (excluding new investments), while the NSE 20 share index is up is up 0.5% since August 2014.

The Stable

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Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↓
Centum  (ICDCI) ↑
Diamond Trust ↓
KCB ↓
Kenya Airways ↓
Kenya Oil ↑
Mumias Sugar
Nairobi Shares Exchange ↑
Safaricom ↑
Scangroup ↓
Stanbic (Uganda) ↑
Unga ↑
Changes
In: Mumias Sugar
Out: None
Increase: Kenya Airways, KCB, Scangroup
Decrease: None
Best performer: NSE Kenya (up 121% since IPO), Centum (16%), (Unga 14%)
Worst performer: Kenya Airways (down 22%) Bralirwa (down 19%)
Unexpected Events:
– Bralirwa share dip which has been linked to the bonus share
– KQ’s loss in the half year. Amid the arrival of a half-dozen new Boeing 787 Dreamliners and other aircraft and long serving CEO Titus Naikuni stepping down there was one more shock from the airline in the form of a half year loss of Kshs 10.45 billion ($116 million)
– Are Kenya bank stocks overvalued as a Citi report says?
– Listings by Kurwitu Ventures (at Kshs 1,500 per share, which was higher than British American Tobacco that’s at 904 now) and Flame Tree (FTG) in recent weeks in the GEMS category of the NSE.
– Both Equity and Housing Finance forming holding companies and transferring banking and mortgage business respectively to the new group parents.
– The vicious fallout between BritAm and Cytonn.
Looking forward to
– Unga’s acquisition of Ennsvalley, a bakery worth Kshs 500 million ($5.55 million)
– Uchumi’s rights issue to raise Kshs 895 million ($10 million) by offering shareholders 3 shares for every 8 held at Kshs 9 per share, with the funds to be used for expansion in East Africa and refurbishment of stores.
– Seeing how Mumias Sugar shares proceed..having gone from highs of Kshs 40 in years past, to 1.4 this month.