Category Archives: Kenya taxation

Moody’s places Kenya’s B1 rating on review for downgrade

Moody’s Investors Service has placed the B1 long-term issuer rating of the government of Kenya on review for downgrade.

 

Excerpts

The decision to place the rating on review for downgrade was prompted by the following key drivers:

  •  Persistent, large, primary deficits and high borrowing costs continue to drive government indebtedness higher
  • Government liquidity pressures risk rising in the face of increasingly large financing needs
  • Uncertainties weigh over the future direction of economic and fiscal policy, in part due to evolving political dynamics

Moody’s expects that Kenya’s government debt burden, which has risen to 56.4% of GDP in June 2017, up from 40.5% five years ago, will continue to rise due to persistently high primary deficits and borrowing costs. Pressures on the government primary balance, which posted a deficit of 5.3% of GDP in the latest fiscal year ending June 2017, come from elevated development spending and weak revenue performance. Unless a decisive policy response is introduced, the upward trajectory in government debt will see debt-to-GDP surpass the 60% mark by June 2018.

Due to the erosion in government revenue intake in the last five years and increased recourse to debt from private sources on commercial terms, government debt affordability has deteriorated. In the latest fiscal year, the government spent 19.0% of its revenues on interest payments, up from 10.7% five years ago.

A key focus of the review will be to assess the capacity and willingness of the government to address these budgetary challenges in a comprehensive, effective and timely manner.

What Next?

Moody’s would downgrade the rating if the review were to conclude that Kenya’s government debt and financing needs, and hence its fiscal strength and liquidity position, have eroded to levels no longer consistent with B1 rated peers. In particular, the rating agency would downgrade the rating in the absence of an effective policy response to these challenges.

Or

Moody’s would confirm the rating at B1 if the review were to conclude that the policy response offers the prospect for tempering the currently-anticipated upward trend in government debt and that liquidity risks are being effectively managed.
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Reading the Tea leaves at Centum, Kenya Airways, Safaricom – Part III

Following up from last year, three companies that had their year-end in March 2017 – Centum, Kenya Airways, and Safaricom have just published their annual reports. Later this month, they will all have shareholders annual general meetings – Safaricom’s will be on September 15, Kenya Airways, who already had an EGM will have their AGM on 22 September, while Centum’s will be on September 25th at Two Rivers, Nairobi.

Notes from the annual reports.

Centum:

  • Has a massive 234-page annual report (up from 192 pages), and the company has 37,163 (last year 37,325) shareholders. 44 shareholders have more than 1 million shares.
  • Board changes at the AGM: New chairman Donald Kaberuka will meet shareholders, and this year Henry Njoroge Imtiaz Khan and Dr. James McFie all step down from the board.
  • Shareholders will also be asked to approve the incorporation of ten Ramani Arch companies as Vipingo subsidiaries, Rehati Holdings, Zahanati Holdings Greenblade Growers, and a Greenblade EPZ.
  • Centum will pay shareholders Kshs 1.2 per share dividend (up from 1.0 last year)
  • Had 86 billion assets. Profit was Kshs 1.5 billion for the year then added with other gains from value changes, this reached Kshs 6.1 billion.
  • Their auditors, PWC, flagged issues like loan impairment at Sidian, loans at Chase Bank, the value of unquoted assets, the value of goodwill, and the value of investment properties.

    Centum shareholders to meet at Two Rivers.

  • Centum has 35 billion worth of subsidiaries including Two Rivers Development (50% of lifestyle centre and 100% of water, ICT, apartments, and phase 2) , GenAfrica Asset Managers (73%), Almasi Beverages (52% of Investment holding company for Mount Kenya Bottlers, Kisii Bottlers and Rift Valley Bottlers), Bakki Holdco (Sidian Bank) and Vipingo Estates
    Associates: Centum sold off their entire 26.4% of KWAL (for Kshs 1.1 billion) while at Longhorn they raised their stake to 60%.
  • Unquoted investments include General Motors East Africa (GMEA – estimated Kshs 3 billion worth), Nas Servair (estimated Kshs 765 million) and Nabo. NAS, where they own 15% opened three Burger King restaurant franchise outlets in Kenya. Centum still owns 17.8% of GMEA after Isuzu bought a majority 57% stake from GM. They also own 25% of Platinum Credit that provides loans to civil servants and has 80,000 customers.
  • Their Lulu Field acquired 14,000 acres in Masindi Uganda for agriculture.
  • They own  27.6% of Nairobi Bottlers which accounts for 47% of the Coca Cola sold in Kenya.
  • In energy, they own 37% of Akira geothermal and 51% of Amu Power.
  • Managers earn more from performance bonuses than salaries.
  • They have borrowed Kshs 1.4 billion from Coca Cola Exports (for Almasi to buy crates and bottles), 3.1 billion from First Rand, Kshs 982 million from Cooperative Bank (for working capital), Kshs 573 million from Chase Bank (for infrastructure at Two Rivers and vehicles for Longhorn), and Kshs 440 million from KCB (for machinery at Mt. Kenya Bottlers)
  • They are owed Kshs 12 billion by related parties including 1.1 billion by Two Rivers Development, 3.1 billion by Centum Exotics, 3.3 billion from Centum development, 1.3 billion by Mvuke (Akira geothermal), 672 million at Vipingo Development and 533 million from Investpool Holdings.

Kenya Airways 

  • The report is 172 pages (up from 149 pages) and KQ has 79,753 shareholders (up from 78,577).
  • Going Concern: While their auditors KPMG have a material matter about KQ’s uncertainty as a going concern, the Directors have prepared the consolidated and company financial statements on a going concern basis since they are confident that the plans described above provide a reasonable expectation that the Group and Company will be able to meet their liabilities as and when they fall due and will have adequate resources to continue in operational existence for the foreseeable future. The Directors believe the plans above will improve the Group and Company’s profitability, cash flows and liquidity position. 
  • Sebastian Mikosz takes over as Group Managing Director & CEO, replacing Mbuvi Ngunze.
  • Tax treatment: the accumulated tax loss of Kshs 71 billion of Kenya Airways and Kshs 782 million of JamboJet will be carried forward for ten years and used to offset future taxable profits.
  • The fleet in 2017 had 39 aircraft down from 47. The board approved the sale of 6 aircraft, and 5 have since bene sold. Also, two Embraer 170’s were returned early to the lease owners while three Boeing 777-300 were leased for four years by KQ to Turkish Airlines with another two Boeing 787-800 leased to Oman Air for three years.
  • Borrowings Barclays Bank PLC – Aircraft loans 325 million at 4.87%, Citi/JP Morgan – Aircraft loans Kshs 71,649 million at 1.89%, African Export – Import Bank (Afrexim) – Aircraft Loans Kshs  21,050 million at 4.82%, and short-term facilities of 24,776 million at 8.58%, and Government of Kenya  24,540 million at 8.58%. The short term facilities were drawn down from Equity Bank, Jamii Bora Bank, Kenya Commercial Bank, Commercial Bank of Africa, I & M Bank, Chase bank, National Bank of Kenya, Diamond Trust Bank, Co-operative Bank, NIC bank and Ecobank for the financing of pre-delivery payments for ordered aircraft.
  • On Time Performance (“OTP”):  The top delays contributors were:1) Aircraft serviceability and availability;2) ATC restrictions and weather;3) Passenger and ramp handling;4) Crew shortage; and5) Connectivity due to new schedules with more efficient use of aircraft.
  • 13 incidents related to disruptive passengers/inappropriate behaviour were reported in 2016/17 financial year compared to 21 incidents reported in the prior year.
  • A total of 70 bird strikes were reported during the period under review compared to 63 cases in the prior year. Most of the reported bird strikes caused minimal damage to our aircraft, but several resulted in costly maintenance, parts replacement, and operational delays. These include two reported air turn back incidents and two rejected take-offs due to bird strikes.

Safaricom

  • The report is 144 pages (down from 172) and the company has 582,775 shareholders (down 600,000 shareholders last year and 660,000 the year before that).
  • At the AGM, shareholders will approve payment of a dividend of Kshs 0.97 per share (out of EPS of 1.21) – for a total dividend payout of almost Kshs 39 billion. Last year they paid Kshs 57 billion in dividends (35% of which went to the government to whom they also paid Kshs 84.3 billion in taxes and other fees).
  • Shareholders will approve a name change to Safaricom PLC. Also, they will vote on special board change resolutions following the Vodacom Vodafone deal; these  will mandate that the Chairman and all independent directors of Safaricom be Kenyan citizens, and also to require that a super-majority of the board (75% of directors) vote to approve changes to the business plans, appointments of the managing director and chief financial officer, and branding of the company – which previously Vodafone had a direct veto over.
  • Balance sheet of Kshs 108 billion down from 117 billion.
  • Bonga points (a loyalty scheme) now total  Kshs 3.3 billion (up from 3.2 billion) are a liability to be converted to revenue as customers utilize their points.
  • Safaricom also has deferred revenue of Kshs 3.4 billion from unused airtime and bundles (up from 2.7 billion) which include Kshs 243 million of managed services under the police contract.
  • For, the National Police Service communication project an amount of KShs7.5 billion was received during the year and the outstanding balance at the year-end was KShs4.47 billion.
  • The Group has short-term borrowing facilities with Commercial Bank of Africa, Standard Chartered Bank and Barclays Bank of Africa.
  • Safaricom has an active ESOP: 13.7 million shares historically valued at KShs193.2 million (2016: 30.4 million shares valued at KShs375.12 million) vested and were exercised by eligible staff.
  • Risks: their auditors, PWC, flagged  issues such as accuracy of revenue recognition, while
    Safaricom itself considers business risks including terror and cyber attacks, competition  (from companies like WhatsApp), the regulatory environment and weakened economic growth.
  • They have an Insider trading policy. Directors and staff are made aware that they ought not to trade in the company’s shares while in possession of any material insider information that is not available to the public or during a closed period.
  • Subsidiaries are One Communications, Instaconnect, Packet Stream Data Networks, Safaricom Money Transfer Services, East Africa Tower Company, IGO Wireless, Flexible Bandwidth Services, Comtec Training and Management Services, and Comtec Integration Systems – all 100& owned, while The East African Marines Systems Limited (TEAMS) is an associate company where they own 32.5%.
  • New products and innovations include Blaze, Flex and M-Pesa Kadogo under which they waived all charges for m-pesa transactions smaller than Kshs 100 ($1). 
  • Besides partnerships such as M-TIBA, Eneza and M-KOPA, they had others with women in technology, Little Cabs, athletics and music. Also, the Safaricom Spark Fund invested in six companies – Sendy, mSurvey, Eneza, Lynk, FarmDrive, and iProcure.
  • The company donated Kshs 381 million to the Safaricom foundation.
  • Twaweza – when we come together, great things happen– is the next phase of the Safaricom brand.

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Depositary Receipts for Afreximbank Investors

Afreximbank, an African multilateral financial institution, is raising equity of up to $300 million and expanding its shareholder base by selling depositary receipts backed by Class D shares which will be listed and traded on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius.

The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) depositary receipts private placement which opened on July 25, and today in Nairobi, representatives of the bank, State Bank of Mauritius (SBM Holdings), and CBA Group (Kenya) met institutional investors as Kenyan pension and fund managers are a key target for the offer. The depositary receipts have also been marketed to Nigerian investors.

Mauritius has long been a financial gateway to India, with over 1,000 funds there overseeing investments in India. But SBM Holdings Chairman Kee Chong Li, was proud to  say that the depositary receipts arrangement was a historic first for shares of  a pan-African bank, arranged by African advisers, to be listed on an African stock exchange.

Afreximbank, headquartered in Cairo, aims to narrow the trade financing gap in Africa, estimated at $120 billion annually by offering intra-Africa trade finance products including local content finance (Nigeria and Angola oil) , special risks finance, a countercyclical trade liquidity Facility (COTRALF – which has provided $8 billion to African central banks and commercial banks in 2016) guarantees, construction & tourism finance, and one for medical tourism.

Afreximbank has 135 shareholders in four different classes: Class “A”- comprising African governments, central banks (include Central Banks of Egypt (9.83%) and Nigeria (7.33%), Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (6.74%), banks of Uganda and Ghana, governments of Nigeria (6.17%), Cote d’Ivoire and Kenya –  in total, 43 Class A shareholders  own 63% of the bank), Class “B” – African financial institutions (including SBM Holdings, Nigeria, Egyptian banks – National (6.62%), Misr and du Caire – who combined own 26%), Class “C” made up of non-African financial institutions (13 shareholders own 10% including China Eximbank (5.48%), Standard Chartered) and a new Class “D” open to individuals that was created in 2012.

Afreximbank has a $12 billion balance sheet which includes $10 billion of loans. For 2016, net interest income was$273 million, and net earning were $113 million – of which they paid $37 million dividends. In terms of their exposure, 68% of lending were to financial institutions, then 16% to the energy sector, while geographical, lending is 43% to West Africa and 42% to North Africa, then 7% to Southern Africa and 4% in East Africa.

About the depositary receipts:

  • New class D shares and the depositary receipts are aimed at sophisticated long-term investors such as pension funds and wealthy individuals.
  • The depositary receipts will be listed on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius.
  • The 6,977 Afreximbank Class D shares are the form of 69.77 million depositary receipts (every 10,000 depositary receipt supports 1 class D share).
  • This is a private placement, and the minimum investment is $30,000. It runs from 25 July to 22 September.
  • The listing will be on 4 October at Mauritius. Currently, Afreximbank shares are not listed anywhere, but, after Mauritius, they may consider listing the depositary receipts in Nairobi and Lagos.
  • Holders of depositary receipts will be entitled to receive dividends as class D shareholders
  • The shares are dollar-denominated which is a stable currency. The placement in Mauritius where there are no capital gains or dividend taxes, and, in addition, the SBM Chairman said that Mauritius will grant residency to (large) investors who buy $500,000 worth of depositary receipts.
  • The target for the Class D depositary receipts was $100 million from African investors, but they got very positive response from beyond Africa that’s more than double.
  • The deal is being handled by SBM Mauritius Asset Managers as the lead arranger, and co-transaction advisors are CBA Capital and Lion’s Head Global Partners.

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Urban Inflation Index: July 2017

Comparing prices and inflation in Nairobi to four and five years ago. 

Price and inflation comparisons are made a bit difficult by the unprecedented (in recent years) shortage of certain food commodities. Back in 2008 as post-election violence rocked the country, supermarkets opening shop, receiving supplies, stocking shelves and selling fresh foodstuffs and household items were seen as one of the barometers that life was getting back to normal. But going into the August 8 elections, several supermarkets have had empty shelves, notably at Kenya’s largest chain, Nakumatt that is limping under debt, and empty shelves, with lawsuits from landlords and key suppliers and a delayed shareholder deal. Unlike Uchumi who faced a similar situation just over a year ago, Nakumatt has not shown humility in asking for a bailout from the government or relief from suppliers and partners.

On to the index

Gotten Cheaper (in four years)

Finance: Bank loans are 14.0% due to the interest capping law of 2016. Average bank rates were 17% in July 2013

Fuel: A litre of petrol is Kshs 97.1 (~$4.25/gallon) today in Nairobi. It was 109.52 per litre in July 2013 (and 117.6 five years ago).

About the Same

Staple Food: With just under two weeks to the elections, maize has been hard to find, even at the government subsidized prices of Kshs 90 per pack. In July 2013 the pack cost Kshs 104 (and it was 118 five years ago) But just how long it will stay at 90 is not clear as the 2017/18 budget drafted at a time of high maize prices and low supplies, zero-rated the importation of white maize for a period of four months. Will it go back up after this window closes?

Communications: Phone call rates flattened in 2013 even though at the time Airtel and Yu were bringing the prices down, while now Safaricom battles distant Telkom Kenya (rebranded from Orange) and Airtel, as well as Equitel from Equity Bank, with competition more on data pricing, and mobile money transfers – where M-Pesa still dominates.

Beer/Entertainment: A 200 bottle of Tusker beer is Kshs 200 at the local pub. This is the same price it was in July 2013. (And it was 180 five years ago)

Utilities: Pre-paid electricity is about Kshs 2,500 per month, which is unchanged from the last review. The calculation of pre-paid tokens remains a complicated exercise.

More Expensive

Other food item: Sugar is hard to find, more so for traditional brands like Mumias. A 2kg bag of Chemelil sugar is Kshs 290  compared to 250 in July 2013 and five years ago it was 237. Prices of other food commodities like milk and butter have also gone up.

Foreign Exchange: 1 US$ equals Kshs. 103.9 compared to 87.15 in July 2013 and 84.25 five years ago.

There has been quite some outward flow of currency ahead of the election.
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Sports Betting – Part IV: Gambling Companies Protest Kenya tax

Today brought some shocking news that, following the passage into law of the 2017 Kenya Finance Bill, in which the President had amended an increase in the tax on gambling to 35% tax, in place of an earlier 50% one proposed at Parliament, Sportpesa, the apparent industry leader of sports betting and gambling would be ending all its local sponsorships.

Sportpesa has a sizeable local sports sponsorship portfolio, supporting several local sports ventures; In rugby (the Kenya Rugby Union, Kenya Harlequins), and in soccer (Kenya’s premier league, a Super 8 tournament, Football Kenya company, as well as individual teams of Gor Mahia, AFC Leopards, Football Kenya, Nakuru All Stars).

Sportpesa started operating in Tanzania just two months ago, but recently hosted a soccer tournament in Tanzania featuring top Kenyan and Tanzania teams, which was won by Gor Mahia, earning them a pre-season match with Everton, the English premier league team, on July 13 in Dar-es-Salaam.

The strong-arm tactics of Sportpesa look similar to ones tried by Kenyan banks before the President went ahead and signed an interest capping bill into law that the banks had strongly opposed. The effects they warned about now seem to becoming true with reduced lending to businesses, and liquidity in the economy.

The sports betting and gambling companies push back also comes at a time when Kenyan sports face myriad issues like doping allegations, an ineffectual sports minister and fatigue and funding cutbacks by other large sports sponsors including Multichoice (DStv), EABL, KCB and Safaricom over management issues with different sports associations and teams. While gambling companies like Sportpesa had stepped up, the sports’ funding sources now appear in limbo.
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