Category Archives: Citibank Kenya

Bankers’ post-election assessments

Citigroup (CITI)

  • Limited impact on economy if the political crisis is resolved. It Matters little to the economy who won the election as private sector will continue to drive growth
  • Share sell off at NSE could be a good buying opportunity as economic fundamentals unchanged.
  • President will use police and military to clamp down on protests which themselves will not last more than a few weeks
  • Parliament loyalties will be split by president as MP’s vote with their stomach
  • There’s little the international community can do besides pushing for reforms.
  • Also in the pre-election period, the opposition may have been falsely buoyed by opinion polls which are not sound (& could the same thing have happened to Obama in New Hampshire ?)

Renaissance Capital (RENCAP)

  • Crime wave has emerged under the guise of political riots
  • Government may take all 12 nominated seats in parliament
  • Reemergence of the civil society and NGO’s as source of political pressure and search for solutions.
  • Main threat is if two parties don’t agree so may revise down the 6 – 7% GDP projections.
  • Also prices have not factored in the chaos, so investors should hold off on buying.

Thanks to Silaha for the 2 reports – and who has also blogged some post-election predictions for Kenya

Treasury Officals:– from Business Daily

  • Damage on the economy could cut the projected growth by as much as a half, if not worse as agricultural, financial services and tourism sectors are likely to under perform
  • Treasury could be forced to craft a stimulus economic package to help reconstruct the affected regions and
  • Lower the interest rates in the economy.

Central Bank Governorfrom Reuters

  • Kenya can still achieve 8% growth in 2008
  • Disruptions were temporary and will have a major impact on GDP growth
  • Shilling’s depreciation was due to holiday period
  • Safaricom IPO in the first quarter of 2008
  • Interest rates will not change

World Bank
(Hat tip Kumekucha) There’s a controversy brewing of the World Bank’s assessment of the election and resultant crisis

Excerpts;

  • The considered view of the UN is that the ECK announcement of a Kibaki win is correct. More irregularities of consequence on the Odinga side than on the Kibaki side.
  • The process of arriving at the result created a crisis of confidence due to missteps by (a) the ECK chair (who joked about possible rigging during a news conference), (b) the vocal EU observer who was not thorough and precise in analyzing information provided to him (c) the lack of preparation by Kibaki’s party in dealing with a highly media-savvy opposition.
  • Moving forward. One option being explored is getting them to agree to a recount which, by law, has to be done through a petition to Kenya’s High Court. Eminent persons from abroad would monitor this recount. Meanwhile, Kibaki would proceed to form a Cabinet, possibly with some participation by Odinga supporters. It is unclear what would happen if the exercise arrived at a different result from the ECK decision. The gamble is that this would not happen and that even if it did, both sides would have a face-saving way to accept a change in course via-a-vis their supporters

This is not the first time the first time that the land-lord-tenancy arrangement between the President and the World Bank has been put to question – see here and here

Finally, not sure if she’s a banker, but Kenyanentreprenur argues that what Africa needs are development minded dictators since we are not ready for democracy – and I hope we won’t be having this debate in 2012!

My own take is that the people at the Coast, Nyanza, Rift Valley and Western provinces need to start rebuilding their lives and their industries – otherwise they will be left behind. Rioting in your own community is dumb as you destroy businesses that deliver services and create jobs within the community. So pass that message along with any peace & sympathy messages you convey. Also watch NTV’s great Voices of Reason program on Youtube that looks at pre- and post-election issues (more on that later).

Bank Review ’07: Part III

Middle of the pack

20. (20) Fina Bank: Estimated assets of 7.6 billion ($108 million) and profits of 90 million shillings ($1.3 million), with growth of about 20% from a year ago. Opened upcountry branches in Kenya (Nakuru, Mombasa, and Eldoret) and will start branches in Uganda next year, bridging the Fina to their existing Rwanda operations.

19. (22) Family Bank: Estimated assets of 9 billion and profits of 220 million in 2007. Known as Equity Blue, it has enjoyed similarly rapid growth (though slightly less this year) since converting from a building society to a bank. It has followed Equity’s footsteps, applying for the same exemptions granted to Equity – such early as admission to the clearing house and permission to issue chequebooks. It has also opened branches at a fast rate and its paperless banking model and women-entrepreneur loan models are a hit with rural Kenyans. But, in the year in which they converted to a Bank, they also lost their long serving CEO over board dispute and got sued by a Central Bank official who their Chairman had accused of being corrupt.

18. (18) EABS: Estimated assets of 9 billion and profits of 15 million. Teething pains continue at the former building society which converted to a bank three years ago, and had growth of about 5% in 2007.

17. (17) Housing Finance : Estimated assets of 10.5 billion and profit of 120 million, with loans 15% up from a year ago but assets only 2%. The bank tried to merge with Development Bank of Kenya, and later raise cash in a rights issue, but both plans were scuttled by regulators; later the board signed to sell a 25% stake to Equity Bank. HFCK and S&L (owned by KCB) are still major players in the mortgages sector which is becoming a crowded field with newer entrants Stanbic and Standard Chartered. HF also lost a class action lawsuit filed by customers over illegal bank charges.

16. (19) Bank of India: Estimated assets of 11 billion and profit of 500 million for quiet bank that grew at about 25%. Does a lot of India related business and Kenya government securities.

15. (16) Imperial Bank: Estimated assets of 11.5 billion and profits of 600 million. In 2007, the bank grew about 40% as it launched shariah banking, asset finance, children’s accounts and opened new branches at the coast.

14. (14) Bank of Baroda: Estimated assets of 14.9 billion and profit of 600 million for quiet bank that grew at about 25% and does a lot of Kenya government securities investing. It has been in Kenya for 52 years

13. (15) Prime Bank : Estimated assets of 15 billion and profits of 350 million. The fast growing bank will consolidate with affiliate Prime capital company by year end leading to a much larger bank in 2008.

12. (11) Investment & Mortgages: Estimated assets of 30 billion and profits of 1.3 billion. Fast growing bank also diversified into shariah banking, custodial services and also acquired two new euro bank shareholders.

11. (12) Diamond Trust : Estimated assets of 31 billion and profits of 950 million. In 2007 the bank grew about 45% as it opened several new branches, had a second rights issue in less than a year and also acquired a majority stake in Diamond Trust Tanzania.

10. (8) NIC: Estimated assets of 34 billion and profit of 1.1 billion. The bank grew at about 30% in 2007. It had a rights issue, rewarded shareholders with a bonus, went into custodial and investment banking (acquiring a stockbrokerage firm). But the market leader in asset finance also faced increased competition from other banks in this field and was dropped from NSE share index in favour of ICDCI.

9. (5) Citibank Kenya: Estimated assets of 38 billion and profit of 1.9 billion shillings. Otherwise a flat year for the bank whose parent faced her own troubles in the US banking meltdown. Growth was about 5% as the bank got into the local IPO advisory races.

8. (6) Commercial Bank of Africa: Estimated assets of 40 billion and profit of 1.4 billion. Growth of 9% from a year ago got into unit trusts, home loans, insurance, and funding of women projects. Similar to CFC and would be prime candidate for a merger.

7. (7) National Bank of Kenya: Estimated assets of 45 billion ($645 million) and profit of 1.4 billion shillings ($20 million) for 2007. NBK finally had its most of its non- performing portfolio debt albatross sorted out with a government bailout in the form of bonds maturing over the next 10 years. Now that its cleaned up, it could once again be a target of Stanbic again who two years ago offered to buy out NSSF’s 48% after their CFC merger is done in 2008 (Equity Bank is a also long shot). During the year, NBK partnered with Standard investment bank offer stockbroking services through NBK branches and also tried to have businessman Ketan Somaia jailed over an unpaid debt to the bank

Jobs

Chase Bank; Head of ICT, senior manager operations, head of trade finance. apply by snail mail to the Head of HR 28987-00200 by 29/2
– Cabin crew at Emirates airlines
Fina Bank Uganda: The bank is starting operation in Uganda in January 2008, and those interested in working there should send detailed CVs to hr@finabank.com.
tough job – Head of marketing & corporate communications at Kenya Airways apply online by 15/1

Hedge Funds to Africa

Excerpts from a China news report: Some hedge funds are turning to resource-rich sub-Saharan Africa for investment, a fact reflecting an upward trend in some of the region’s economies and the growth of hedge funds and their search for new frontiers, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.

Citigroup is now trading securities from countries such as Kenya, Botswana, Tanzania, Uganda and Ghana for its clients. Within a few years, it has gone from trading in only two countries in sub-Saharan Africa to 12.

Banks wanted

Standard Bank (aka Stanbic) is seeking mid-size retail banks in Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana and Angola, in addition to investing heavily in its own operations in Kenya to grow them at 25 percent a year,

Stanbic is Kenya’s 12th largest bank and its assets grew by 36% in the half-year.

Great image from airliners.net