Monthly Archives: March 2009

Kutwa Tuesday: Toxic Brokers

Toxic Brokers The US has toxic banks, Kenya has toxic stockbrokers

Discount stockbrokers was yesterday placed under statutory management. It has been technically insolvent since new managers were appointed six months ago, and given the cost and extent of their operations it’s unlikely to ever turn round.

Bob Mathews was also re-admitted at a stockbroker after injecting in new capital, but once labeled at a toxic broker no amount of rescue cash is enough to salvage an institution. Nyaga stockbrokers got a lifeline infusion of Kshs. 100 million rescue loan, which was largely paid to other brokers, but it was not enough and the firm went under too. smart investors should read the signs of a collapsing company

Capital Gains market turnaround

The Nairobi stock exchange had its best week in a long time, with a mini run led by Equity Bank up 31%, CMC up 25%, Kengen 22%, EA Cables 20%, National Bank 16%, EA Breweries 15% and Diamond Trust 12%. With no significant financial results, or economic & political news out last week, the rise remains a mystery; Was it in reaction to US markets having their best week, or realization that there was a new finance minister in charge or investors realizing that they had missed on the infrastructure bond (and the next one was not as lucrative), or was it stockbrokers making a last stand?

Insurance Losses

Pan Africa Life a relatively large company with assets of Kshs. 6 billion ($75 million) returned a pre-tax loss for 2008 of Kshs. 175 million down from a profit of 51 million in 2007, which they attribute to the unrealized loses in capital markets. If a large insurance company is in this state, what about the smaller other Kenyan insurance companies? Already standard assurance has gone under and it was not the main company in public transport sector (matatu’s) whos’ claims are being blamed for its collapse.

Opportunities & Events

TED Global applications have opened for the 2009 TED Global 2009 conference. Deadline is April 3 for fellowship applications

Tujuane Mixer will be held on March 20. More details at Tujuane site and here’s a re-cap of the last mixer I attended. The event will be facilitated by Nyokabi Njuguna, Founder – Entrepreneurship and Leadership Foundation, and with a special appearance by R&B vocalist and Guitarist Harry Kimani.

Nairobi Wine Festival Get stylish and drunk is how Rafiki Kenya describes the event on Friday and Saturday (20/21 March)

Zain in Kenya

Vuka Verdict:

Zain introduced the Vuka revolutionary flat rate call package of 8 shilling per ($0.10) minute to call all other networks in October 2008. After an initial surge in customers. What do the numbers bear out?

Rough dialing

– Zain gained a million customers 3.08 million (up from 2.1 million)
– Zain lost revenue $162 million (~13 billion) down from $194 million
– Zain lost big money: Net loss was $90 million in 2008 compared to a loss of $21 million in 2006. the ~Kshs. 7.2 billion is perhaps the largest corporate loss in Kenya for a single year

Zain outlook

– The 2009 numbers should be much better as marketing costs of Zain’s Vuka were quite heavy for the last quarter of 2008 and by which time customer numbers were still growing. But with just 5% of the entire Zain group customers, Kenya may be an expensive group to manage in what they consider to be a competitive market with low revenues [Average revenue per user/ARPU was $6 (down from $7)]. Zain claims 18% market share to Safaricom’s 77% and 5% for Orange
– Zain owned 80% of the Kenyan operation, up from 70% in 2007
– If Zain can state the population of Kenya is 38.5 million (up from 37.5 in 2007), is there need for an expensive Government census which will take place later this year?

Kutwa Tuesday: From Stanchart to LPG

stories found this week

Stanchart Bank:

Smaller profit – Standard Chartered is being much maligned for being the first bank to report a profit drop in 2008 of 4% to 4.7 billion shillings. ($59 million) (Increased 29% in 07). The bank which adopted a conservative approach compared to Barclays, KCB and Equity. Stanchart had asset growth of 9% to 99 billion (13% in 07), deposits up 4% to 77 billion and loans up 10% to 43 billion in 2008. Still their shareholders will get the highest dividend of any listed bank in 2008.

Here are some other performance comparisons of the main banks that have so far reported their 2008 results.

Goes for smaller customers – In a slight about turn, Stanchart has also launched a new low cost transactional account called Hifadhi, costs 2,000 to open, no ledger fees, or ‘cash handling fees’ with e-statements you only pay for transactions you incur, though its’ not as affordable as other ‘cheap’ bank accounts for small earners. Going for smaller customer has been a recurrent theme in 2008 with banks, insurance and investment companies lowering the minimum subscription amount. Examples are pepea from Barclays, Toboa from Old Mutual and even the Government of Kenya which lowered the minimum investment for GoK treasury bonds to just Kshs. 50,000 (~$625)

Bank briefs
– Stanchart get back to what they are good at – big corporate deals this one for Kengen
– Gulf African launches a shariah compliant mortgage scheme
– New bank branches: First Community bank now in Malindi, Ecobank in Kisii, while Family Bank re-opened in Githurai
– Another SMS sends Equity customers into bank panic withdrawals this time in Machakos.

From the blogs

Siasa mbaya, maisha mbaya: Global economic slump aside, Nairobi’s Stock Exchange will not see a bull run until the country’s political problems are sorted out according to MainaT

The Sunday Nation broke a story of the old Embakasi airport been handed over to an unlicensed new airline, but airport analysis comes from one Coldtusker

Following in the success of the infrastructure bond (over-subscribed by 45%), the Kenya Government is offering another bond to supplement its budget deficit; this one is for 8.5 billion ($106 million). More details from Conceptadvisoryservices and the minimum investment is just 50,000 ($625).

Kenya Rugby Effects: Kenya had a wonderful run at the IRB World Cup in Dubai, and knocked out defending champions Fiji in the quarter finals. Here’s some rugby loss reactionfrom Fiji.

Elsewhere

Employees lose & lose – it’s been a bad week for employees as the Employment Act was set aside and the government shifted more of the pension burden to civil servants to contribute towards their own retirement funds.

Madaraka finalized – Madaraka Estate houses were finally sold, apparently ending a long long running saga between homeowners, the City Council and the National Housing Corporation who should really update their website.

Laptop maniaso many offers for laptops these days, new this week were
Safaricom selling Macbook with broadband modem for 100,000 ($1,250)
– Acer A110 laptop on sale with open office for $230 – great for Kenyans new to mini laptop market
– Even my bank/broker (CFC) hawks Acer Aspire 4710 and has loans that work out to 5,500 ($70) per month

Is Grad School a Con? – Half the Sunday Nation advertisements were for colleges aiming at the recent high school graduates whose results were announced last week. Also growing are the numbers of universities and master programs, but this article argues against going to grad school to avoid the recession with the author pointing out that;

– Grad school pointlessly delays adulthood.
– PhD programs are pyramid schemes
– Business school is not going to help 90% of the people who go.
– Most jobs are better than they seem: You can learn from any job.
– Graduate school forces you to overinvest: It’s too high risk.
(found at chris blattman)

LPG Shocker – when to buy cooking gas last night. Found the cylinder, however it appears that there is now a valve that will be mandatory on all cylinders from April 2009 – it is a universal valve, that will enable consumers to buy LPG /cooking gas from any supplier e.g. Kenol., Total, NOCK – replacing cylinders from any of them, since they will now have a common head/valve. The move is supposed to break the monopoly of established companies e.g. if you had a Kenol gas cylinder, you could only replace it at Kenol when buying new gas, whereas if you wanted to switch to Shell gas, you’d have to buy a brand new cylinder.


new gas cap

The problem was that many Total stations did not have the valve. (I checked at three stations) and they all sent me to the place that has everything in Kenya – Nakumatt. Nakumatt also say they stock valves for all companies, but only had the generic caps to sell. It’s scary to use a generic caps, since there are many fires in Kenya caused by exploding/leaking cooking gas cylinders. Hope this turns out ok when April comes around and more consumers realize they have to buy caps which cost anywhere from 500 ($6.25) to 900 shillings each, another cost to the burdened urban consumer. It would also be nice if oil companies and/or the Government conducted some consumer awareness about this matter, not leaving it to Nakumatt and untrained Petrol attendants.

Kenya Bank Charges

Late in February 2009, the Central Bank of Kenya released their bank charges survey (PDF). The earlier comments after the last survey still apply mainly:

1 It’s a good read
2 Customer satisfaction/service should be measured (it’s not just about costs)
3 Savings accounts do attract charges (and pay very little interest)

Banking will probably get cheaper as banks adapt to competition from mobile companies –i.e. Safaricom M-Pesa and Zap from Zain which are becoming become mini e-wallets.

Also found was a recent article on avoidable bank charges – which were:

1 overdraft fees
2 ATM fees (that means avoid pesa point and Visa charges)
3 Minimum balance fees

E-Government Moment

E-demand Kenya High school exams results were announced this week, and the top keyword searches at the site for one day were as follows showing the demand for information online

1. 12.79% www.examscouncil.or.ke
2 6.73% bankelele
3 4.38% kcse results 2008
4 2.69% related:www.examscouncil.or.ke/searchkcseresults2007.php
5 2.36% Kenya examination council
6 1.68% examscouncil.or.ke
1.68% 2008 kcse results
1.68% http://www.examscouncil.or.ke
1.01% Kenya examinations council
1.01% examscouncil Kenya
1.01% www.examscouncil
1.01% www.examcouncil.or.ke
1.01% kcse examination results 2008
1.01% related:www.examscouncil.or.ke/
1.01% Kenya national examination council kcse results

E-possibilities: Also at the Kenya revenue authority site is this land rent checker which should enable potential buyers to investigate land claims before they buy

E-legislation the media kenya communications 2008 bill which contained several laws regulating and facilitating e-commerce is back in the news with media owners asking for certain sections to be amended. Read How was the bill passed over their protest

E-infrastructure The first of three undersea fibre cables has reached Kenya’s shores. Much is expected with promises that communications costs could be lowered by up to 90%. And other transformations through new possibilities for e-government, bandwidth, service providers, broadvand, film & video, content etc. We will see how this plays out, as all these plans and talks will now be put up to the harsh light of reality.

Also – Found at @dkobia – an E-government website I hope will come to Africa one day.