Category Archives: Stanbic IPO

NSE Portfolio May 2009

hit bottom? Time to buy?

Last quarterly check of the Nairobi share portfolio was in February 2009 and a year ago

The Stable


Diamond Trust ↓
Kenya Airways
KCB ↑
Safaricom ↓
Scangroup ↓
Stanbic (Uganda) ↓

Review:
– Best performer: KCB up 2%
– Worst performer Stanbic down 30% (combination of share drop and weaker Uganda shilling), and Safaricom down 10%
– In: Kenya Airways
– Out: none
– Increase none
– Decerease none
– Unexpected gains/losses: none

Events & Outlook:
– Performance: Portfolio is up 1% in the last three months while the NSE Index is down 3.5%
– Bought KQ, tried to buy illiquid Kenol at 30

Looking forward to
– Dividend payments expected from Diamond Trust, KCB, Scangroup, Stanbic (UG)
– Privatization commission has lined up several companies that may be availed later in 2009

Ugandan Envy

this is NOT about Migingo Island


Google Earth image courtesy of afromusing

A year ago wrote this on the information availed to Ugandan investors by their companies; this year the envy is even more, it makes me sad; that by being the leading country in the region, we may not notice we are being passed in some aspects of investor awareness & rights.

Use of E-Mail: The Stanbic Uganda invitation/AGM notice again arrived by e-mail; now many Kenyan companies have passed by-laws allowing them to send out e-mail notices and annual reports to shareholders, but none has done so far. Maybe, with the eventual passage of the much maligned/controversial communications bill the legal framework is now there to back enable this – but we’ll see; While not every shareholder will have an e-mail account, if 1/4 of 1/3 of some company’s shareholders (Kengen, Co-Op, Safaricom) do, then these companies could potentially saves millions of shillings in postage costs.

Investor Disclosures:
(i) For Stanbic UG, rules of voting are clearly stated – shareholders are to endorse new directors and that 1/3 of directors will retire at each meeting.
(ii) for directors who are up for election, their mini-CV’s are printed out for all to peruse i.e. their ages, year of appointment, educational qualifications, directorships in other companies, and committee seats they. In Kenya, Company Chairmen just mumble through, if at all, fully expecting elections to be a foregone conclusion. Refreshingly here, the directors up for election at Stanbic Uganda (Hannington Karuhanga, Kitili Mbathi, and Samuel Sejjakka) are all younger than 50 years. In Kenya, opportunities for younger leaders & directors are the exception rather than the rule. But at Stanbic Uganda – the Chairman and Deputy Chairman have their tenure is capped at two terms of 5 years only.
(iii) Remuneration of directors is declared. Again in Kenya money amounts paid to directors are rarely mentioned, but in Uganda they are spelt out for shareholders to approve – here the Company (non executive) Chairman gets an annual retainer of US$7,500 while a director gets US$5,500

Language used; several companies (most recently) KCB have amended their company article to allow for electronic communication with clients; but they merely replace one of gibberish with another one, without bothering to explain what the jargon means. Here; Stanbic explain allows video-conferencing or tele-conferencing to be used at board meetings

Proxy detail proxy forms contain a lot more details including the items to be voted for with shareholder able to vote for or abstain on votes. They also call for shareholders to provide contact details (name, e-mail – what an easy way for a company registrar to build up a working database to manage is subsequent years)

Shareholders or their proxies (who can be more than one)are entitles to attend, speak, and vote, and the endorsement /presence of a proxy does not disqualify a shareholder from attending; this enables a shareholder to bring his wife/wives or children for them to learn about the process!

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Investor guides: There are many things to learn from other countries in the region on investor rights and information despite Kenya being the leader. We are innovative, Uganda is about to unveil a CDSC system that Kenyan investors have had for three years, but which rogue stockbroker have besmirched. It would not be surprising if the Ugandan version may be sorted out ahead of time, closing loopholes that will be used to protect shareholders, and by educating them on how the system works.

All the regional exchanges – Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and soon Rwanda (where KCB, Kenya’s largest bank in Kenya will be the first company to have its shares to be (cross) listed & trading) all have the same information; but my NSE seems stale, like all the regulations were put up years ago and forgotten. Usualy we just check for the latest share trades, bond trades and quarterly financial announcements.

e.g. Faced with a budget deficit, Kenya has lowered the minimum amounts to invest in bonds to Kshs. 50,000 ($625). The Central Bank of Kenya which issues these bonds has put up some investor information basics, but nothing from the NSE who trade in these bonds. In Uganda, there is an advisory page for investor guides for bonds and shares, for any new investor to read, download for free.

Also in Kenya , tribe is the unacknowledged elephant in the room; one we pretend to not be influenced by, but which governs many aspects of our lives. Kenyans are required to communicate official in English (almost all government documents), and to a lesser extent in Kiswahili. But there are rural folk who may not understand the national or official language, but may wish to learn about shares and bond Uganda has investor awareness booklets in vernacular languages – including a Luo investor guide (PDF)(for the Northern Region) available from the Uganda Securities Exchange. And that, properly disseminated, may be worth much more than a small island.

IPO Guilt

I am

Guilty of having to get into an IPO queue after signaling a wavering of my IPO strategy (its political season)

Guilty of waiting till the last minute; procrastination is a Kenyan habit, and the queues of Safaricom are very long in the last 24 hours, despite the IPO having run for almost a month. What were we waiting for? (and does Obama carry this gene?)

Party guilty of not fully embracing technology: it’s actually possible to buy the shares without having to join a stockbroker queue if (i) you apply online at the official IPO site (which I did) but I did not (ii) attempt to pay via ATM for the same shares. IPO’s tend to run on a different cycle and I didn’t want to be time barred for a delay in funds

More on the official IPO site; it calls for a leap of faith like buying an air ticket online with boarding pass and successfully completing the flight. But the site does not seem to allow for any amendments (buy more or less shares or even cancel an order after you have applied.

And then I received this ominous e-mail from whoever runs the official site

Safaricom IPO”
To: ___________________
Subject: SAFARICOM IPO APPLICATION: PENDING PAYMENT
Date: Thu, 17 Apr 2008

Dear Sir or Madam,

Thank you for your online application for Safaricom IPO shares dated 4/__/2008 reference _______, in the name of ______.

Please note that the next stage of the application process is to make payment for your application at the receiving bank or broker that you selected, by the close of the IPO offer period on Wednesday April 23rd 2008.

If you have already made payment for your application, kindly disregard this email.

In the event of any queries, contact us via email at safaricomipo@swiftkenya.com or call us on +254 20 2754300.

Warm regards
Customer Service Team
Safaricom IPO at Citi

So let’s see how it goes in the last day of the IPO as I pay for the shares.

across the border: Stanbic Uganda, another over-subscribed IPO from 2007 performed even better than expected with a nice dividend of Ug. Shillings 6.64 shillings per share. Maybe I should try the Zambia Celtel IPO too

IPO Train: full on board

It’s now the fourth official day of the Safaricom IPO, with some banks and brokers working over 7 days processing applications. And, over the weekend, many of the negatives of the IPO turned into positives;

Politics align: The IPO was launched last Friday by President Mwai Kibaki, who placed a personal application for 1 million shares, worth 5 million shillings ((0.01% of the shares on offer) . Since then the ODM side have also changed tune of the IPO matter, as they realized that as leaders they have to guide their people – and one of the ways to do so is to enlighten them on opportunities of wealth building and methods of advancement beyond agricultural and real estate productivity. Why tell people not to buy shares, when other communities buy the shares? What do you want your people to do? In any case the public holds minority stakes in most NSE companies with over half the shareholding hidden behind other companies whose shareholders are not well known.

Competitive sisters: Kengen was a watershed IPO but that was 2 years ago. The last massive regional IPO was Stanbic Uganda – how do they compare?

Company; Stanbic : Safaricom
Target; (Ushs 70 billion) USS$ 38 million: (Kshs. 50 billion) US$ 770 million
Beneficiaries; Standard Bank (SA) & Government of Uganda ; Government of Kenya only
Shares on offer; 1 billion shares : 10 billion shares
Share price; (Kshs. 3) $0.04 : (Kshs. 5) $0.08
Oversubscription 3 X : (2X is a conservative estimate)
Applications: 37,000 ; (1 million expected)

Animal Metaphors: We now have CNBC Africa which has been live for about a month and it’s a great channel to watch especially late at night, when they are covering Asia or American markets. Last week, they were discussing the US banking crisis and one analyst used the Sherlock Holmes tale of the dog that did not bark in the night to reflect on the silence of Japanese banks that were heavy investors in US mortgage securities but have not declared any losses.

The animal metaphor with Safaricom – is the elephant in the room which everyone is ignoring and that is Vodafone (UK): Did they want the IPO? I doubt it – they are not making money from the IPO, and will go from having a cozy boardroom, to having a million shareholders (estimate) demanding phones and umbrella’s at AGM’s.

– They are reluctant partners in this who for the last three years (and long before Mobitelea became a Matatu name) they had tried to buy 9% or 11% of Safaricom from the Government of Kenya, for a figure far less than the Government will raise from the public. Vodafone will remain the largest shareholder with 40% (or 35%) to GoK’s 35% , and retain veto power over business plans, budget, and CEO & FC appointments. But most companies listed on the NSE have parent companies who find it prudent to retain at least 50% of the company’s ownership to control the strategic and management direction of a company – and could they be buying any floating shares out there after listing? They can own up to 60% of Safaricom.
– It has exposed the embarrassing practices that gave rise to Mobitelea

Will stockbrokers’ change?: The only smudge so far has been the past performance of stockbrokers. It is sad that the lines outside Nation Center (of Nyaga Stockbroker clients) is as long as that any broker/banker I have seen this week. Stockbrokers have put out their best clothes, advertised and got new staff to woo investors for the 1 billion plus shillings ($15 million) commissions from the IPO – but what happens after? Will they revert to their dark old ways of insider trading, and secret share dealing? An ominous story from the Nation goes that one of the most interesting but unconfirmed anecdotes at the bourse is that Nyaga Securities managing director Patrick Gakiavi actually attended (as a director) the NSE meeting that decided to pump Kshs. 100 million into his operation. – and that joins the NSE urban legend archive like the one of the CEO who was able to cash out his significant stake on the last day of Uchumi share trading

Modernization to eliminate rogue brokers: The central deposit settlement corporation (CDSC) is seeking an SMS solution (mobile phone messaging) to alert investors on their account share trades (theirs/by rogue brokers) and also respond to client requests. (Deadline is April 9) The laws have already been amended to allow them to collect 30 shillings from each Safaricom applicant for postage and this will probably continue for any statements thereafter – as investors will be eased into the cheaper option of SMS (maybe at 5 or 10 shillings per message)

Beyond Safaricom: Hisanet Africa recommend that investors look at some other shares of interest amidst the IPO: these include NIC Bank, Kengen, Barclays (who are now expanding into Rwanda), Access Kenya, and East African Cables.

Financial Friday

Earlier results showed that tax collection is not profitable, but neither is dealing with the strong shilling.

The Central Bank of Kenya year ended June 2007 shows the bank recorded a 386 million shillings loss down from a 4.5 billion profit in 2006. This was largely due to a forex loss of lost 9.8 billion shillings as the shilling remained strong against the US dollar, Euro and Sterling pound.

How much currency is circulating in Kenya? 90 billion shillings ($1.34 billion), in currency up from 76 billion in June 2006.

Bank in law
You don’t start a marriage by locking out the in-laws, but that’s what’s happening with CFC Stanbic as CFC stockbrokers have suspended trades in Stanbic Uganda shares to clear up a backlog of orders.

Shares vs. Holiday vs. Election expenses
The much anticipated Safaricom IPO edges into danger zone as the IPO could be pushed back to start on December 10th, not the 3rd.

Hedge funds to Africa
There was the Equity – Helios deal announced this week.

Another prime opportunity would be for a hedge fund to invest in Transcentury

PSD blog puts the new investment interest in Africa in a historical perspective with China and other Asian countries recognizing an opportunity to stake out the long term

Hedge Funds a year ago