Category Archives: NSE portfolio

State of Kenya’s NSSF

Kenya’s National Social Security Fund (NSSF) published their financial accounts in the newspapers last week after they were earlier gazetted.

The Kshs 174 billion statutory fund, had income in the year to June 2016 of  Kshs 10.7 billion which was down from 19.3 billion the year before. The was after the fund received 12.8 billion of contributions from members (up from 11.7 billion) and paid out 3.1 billion. They had investment income of Kshs 12.8 billion, and paid administrative expenses of Kshs 5.5 billion leaving a surplus for the year of  Kshs 5.2 billion, and which was down from 13.2 billion in 2015.

In terms of assets, they have quoted shares of Kshs 49 billion (down from 57 billion in 2015), treasury/infrastructure bonds of 52 billion, 8.9 billion of corporate bonds, undeveloped land of 9 billion and buildings/ land of Kshs 19.9 billion.

Top shares in the NSSF Kshs 49 billion quoted investments portfolio include 25 million EABL shares (worth 6.9 billion shillings), 320 million Safaricom shares worth 5.6B, 116 million Britam worth 5.6B, 185 million KCB shares worth 6.2 billion, 88 million Equity Bank worth 3.4 billion, 3.2 million BAT worth 2.6 billion and 56 million Bamburi Cement shares worth 9.6 billion. NSSF also owns 24 million EAPCC shares worth Kshs 868 million and 148 million National Bank (NBK) shares worth 1.4 billion.

In the 1990’s the fund was sold illiquid plots at inflated prices and in the 2000’s, it deposited some funds in shaky banks that collapsed soon after. They still have a few issues with land, and the undeveloped land assets of the NSSF include 3.2 billion worth of plots at Mavoko and a Kshs 3.5 billion plot on Kenyatta Avenue in Nairobi.

The NSSF accounts were audited, by the Office of the Auditor General of Kenya (OAG) who qualified the accounts of the fund owing to some issue including

  • Unremitted contributions; A sample of 20 employers found that they had not remitted Kshs 755 million of deductions to the NSSF.
  • Another 764 million of contributions were held in suspense accounts.
  • Hazina Plaza/Polana Hotel Mombasa had rent owed to the NSSF of 239 million.
  • Milimani Plots at Kisumu where a Kshs 178 million estate that brings no income.

Other issues flagged included:

  • The stalled Hazina Trade Centre in Nairobi, which remains 38% complete with construction having been halted after Nakumatt Supermarkets who have a branch in the building had refused to give the contractor (China Jiangxi) access to the basement where they were to provide reinforcement to pillars of the building. The OAG recommended that the NSSF take legal action against Nakumatt in order to complete the Kshs 6.7 billion construction.
  • NSSF new rates

    NSSF budgeted income for the year was  Kshs 44 billion, but only 10.8 billion was raised; This was partly due to poor performance of the portfolio of shares listed at the NSE, but also due to non-implementation of changes to the NSSF act which would have seen increased contributions from members into the scheme.

  • Illegal transfer of a plot of land from the NSSF to Kenya’s Judiciary, and works at Nyayo estate at Embakasi.

$1 = ~Kshs 100

NSE Shares Portfolio August 2017

Compared to six months ago

Comparing performance since February, this portfolio is down 3% mainly due to shares sales, while the while the NSE 20 share index is up 41% from February 2017.

The Stable

 

 

 

 

Atlas —

Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↓

Centum ↑

CIC Insurance ↑

Diamond Trust ↑

KCB ↑

Kenya Airways ↓

NIC ↑

NSE ↑

Stanbic (Uganda) ↑

Unga ↑

Summary:

  • In: None
  • Out: TPS EA (Serena), Fahari I-Reit (Stanlib)
  • Increase: None
  • Decrease: None
  • Best performer: CIC Insurance (up 95% since February) , NSE 84%, Diamond Trust up 77%.
  • Worst performer(s): Bralirwa down -3%, KQ -1%
  • There’s been a surprising resurgence in shares that’s been very quiet, amid the expected decline and investor exists with the August 8 election.
  • Kenya Airways restructuring deal has not yet hit the share price but will dilute shareholders by 95%
  • The surprising Safaricom sale with Vodacom buying out Vodafone
  • Banks are struggling, despite their rising share prices.
  • Disappointment with East Africa: The Vodacom Tanzania IPO stalled until it was opened to foreigners, and it crossed the finish line at with a full subscription after PIC of South Africa made a huge investment to bridge the gap. The Vodacom IPO was not marketed to Kenyans or through local stockbrokers. That said, it has been a struggle holding shares in different East African countries after the welcoming IPO period has passed, with difficulties collecting dividends or selling shares to get money back.

Other portfolio updates from three years and five years ago.

NSE Shares Portfolio February 2017

Comparing performance to a year ago, this portfolio is down 50% mainly due to shares sales, while the while the NSE 20 share index is down 28% from February 2016.

The Stable

Atlas ↓
Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↓
Centum ↓
CIC Insurance ↓
Diamond Trust ↓
KCB ↓
Fahari  REIT↓
Kenya Airways ↑
NIC ↓
NSE ↓
Stanbic (Uganda) ↓
TPSEA ↓
Unga ↓

  • In: None
  • Out: Barclays, Equity, Kenol.
  • Increase: None
  • Decrease: Diamond Trust.
  • Best performer: Kenya Airways (up 12% from a year ago)
  • Worst performer(s): NIC, CIC, Diamond Trust, NSE (all down ~45% from a year ago)

Summary:

  • Another quarter when everything in the portfolio is down. Sold lots of shares after the banking law change.
  • Unexpected Events: (1) The Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) was assessed as the  worst- performing stock market so far in in 2017 so far according to Bloomberg – down 7% since January 1. While many believe it is due to the upcoming Kenya election, Bloomberg analysts trace the NSE portfolio decline to the devaluation of Egypt’s currency by 48% In November 2016,  which resulted in some frontier market investors blocks switching over from Nairobi to Cairo.
  • Still unable to sell portfolio shares in Rwanda (Bralirwa) and Uganda (Stanbic)  – those markets are easy to enter, but harder to exit.
  • Looking Forward to: (1) Bank results in February 2017 (2)  launch of the long-promised and always-postponed M-Akiba bond – a mobile money treasury bond.

Reading the Tea leaves at Centum, Kenya Airways, Safaricom – Part II

 Follow up from two years ago

Three companies that had their year-end in March 2016 have just published their annual reports which are now found on their individual websites. On Thursday both Centum and Kenya Airways boards will face their shareholders at the annual general meetings (AGM’s). Centum is ending a 9 year dividend drought, and Kenya Airways which had another a record-breaking loss, now believes the worst os now behind them. Meanwhile Safaricom will create 6 ‘mini-Safaricoms’ that operate in six Kenya regions and create more segment products like Blaze.

Centum:

  • Has a (massive 192) page annual report (up from 160 pages), and the company has 37,325 shareholders.
  • Will pay Kshs 665 million in dividend (1/= per share) ending a long dividend drought (since 2009)
  • Significant joint ventures are Amu Power (51%) and Two Rivers Lifestyle Center (50% – following a partial disposal). Old Mutual advanced Kshs 5.7 billion to Two Rivers with the debt convertible to 40% in the equity of Two Rivers, with shareholders loans previously held by AVIC and ICDC offset against the consideration. Further developments at Two Rivers  include luxury apartments, a five-star hotel and residences, a healthcare facility and additional structured parking. Property owners who have purchased plots at Two Rivers include  South Africa’s City Lodge Hotel group who are establishing a three star hotel; and Victoria Bank, who are constructing an office block.
  • The completion of the transaction on disposal of interest in Two Rivers and the acquisition of additional interest in Kilele, Sidian Bank and Almasi resulted in a net gain on disposal recorded in equity of Kshs 2.5 billion.
  • The half-year report will be available online to shareholders who register.
  • NAS, where they own 15% will continue diversifying its income streams by launching two Burger King restaurant franchise outlets in Kenya.
  • Will enter the healthcare business with a significant investment this year
  • Centrum plans to build 20 schools across Africa in the next three to five years, as part of a tripartite consortium with SABIS and Investbridge Capital. The consortium has acquired a suitable site along Kiambu Road that will host the first SABIS school in Sub-Saharan Africa, offering both 8-4-4 and K-12 education curricula with a capacity of up to 1,700 students.
  • In agri-business, Centum incorporated Greenblade Growers and acquired a 120 acre farm in Ol Kalou  that will be used for value addition and will have a capacity to process 10 tonnes of fresh produce per day, to key export markets of Netherlands and later the  UK.
  • Energy: to date, the company has invested Kshs 3.1 billion in the development of two landmark projects – Amu Power and Akiira One Geothermal.
  • At the AGM, Centum Chairman James Muguiyi, retires after 13 years and also the Principal Secretary – Ministry of Industry, Trade and Cooperatives, (representing the Kenya government) will retire from the board and not seek re-election.
  • Shareholders will be asked to approve the incorporation of Zohari Leasing, Rea Power Company,  Le Marina  (Uganda) and Two Rivers Development Phase Two. Also that the acquisition of 100% shares of Vipingo Estates and an additional 29% of Longhorn Publishers be ratified (they paid Kshs 393 million for the new shares).
  • Shareholders will also approve a name change from Centum Investment Ltd. to Centum Investment PLC.
  • Shareholders will approve an indemnity of the company directors .. against all relevant loss including any liability incurred by him (her) in defending any civil or criminal proceedings.. the directors may decide to purchase and maintain insurance, at the expense of the company.

Kenya Airways (KQ) kq-ticket-sleeve-old-style

  • The report is 149 pages (up from 130 pages) and KQ has 78,577 shareholders (a slight increase as  their share price has dipped)
  • The Group operates domestic flights and flies to 53 destinations in Africa, Middle East, Asia and Europe.
  • After their 31 March 2016 year-end, they received Kshs 10 billion from the Government of Kenya, (being the second and final tranche of the KShs 20 billion (US$ 200 million) bridge financing that has been on-lend from African Export–Import Bank (Afreximbank), and they sub-leased two Boeing 787 & three Boeing 777-300 aircraft as part of the turnaround initiatives in order to improve its liquidity position.
  •  JamboJet tax losses stood at Kshs 856 million, and Kenyan income tax laws allow for carry forward of tax losses for a maximum period of 10 years.
  • Short term facilities were drawn down from Equity Bank, Jamii Bora Bank, Kenya Commercial Bank, Commercial Bank of Africa, I & M Bank, Chase bank, National Bank of Kenya, Diamond Trust Bank, Co-operative Bank, NIC bank and Eco bank. During the year, the airline negotiated for extended repayment periods for all short-term loans ranging from 4 – 7 years except for Kenya Commercial bank. The Government of Kenya Loan is at 10.20% far much more than previous financing that was at 4-7%. Citi JP Morgan Kshs 78 billion is at 1.5% , Afrexim Bank 23 billion is at 4%, while other short-term Kshs 22 billion is at 9%
  • In addition to the Kenya government, KLM, and IFC, top 10 shareholders now include Mike Maina Kamau, Vijay Kumar Ratilal Shah, Gulamali Ismail and Galot International.
  • They implemented a business class upgrade system in January 2016, under which economy class passengers can bid & buy upgrades to fly on  business class.
  • A total of 63 bird strikes were reported in the year (down from 77 last year).

 Safaricom

  • The report is 172 pages (up from 136 pages) and the company has 600,000 shareholders (down from 660,000).
  • At the AGM a few weeks ago, shareholders approved payment of a dividend for Kshs 0.76 per share for 2016 and also a special bonus dividend of Kshs 0.68 per share.
  • According to a True Value report (they commissioned it, and it was done by KPMG), the total value the company contributed to Kenyan society in FY15 was Kshs 315 billion and they  sustained over 682,000 jobs.
  • Bonga points totaling Kshs 3.2 billion are a liability to be converted to revenue as customers utilize their points
  • Lent Kshs 500 million to Safaricom money transfer services, a subsidiary that derives revenue from international money transfer services.
  • The license  fee for M-pesa dropped from 10% to 5% from August 2015.
  • Donated Kshs 414 million to the Safaricom foundation
  • Spent Kshs 9.3 billion on the National Police Service communication project that’s now 92% complete.
  • They now require all new business partners to sign up to the “code of ethics for businesses in Kenya” during the on boarding process, and 269 companies have signed this.
  • They were fined Kshs 157 million by the Communications Authority of Kenya for not complying with its quality of service thresholds.

Shares Portfolio May 2016

Compared to last quarter  and a year ago. Since February, the portfolio is down 1% while the NSE 20 share index is up 2% this quarter. Both measures are down 19% compared to a year ago.

The Stable

snoop

  • Atlas ↓ (down)
  • Barclays ↓
  • Bralirwa (Rwanda) – (no change)
  • Centum (ICDCI) ↓
  • CIC Insurance ↓
  • Diamond Trust ↑ (up)
  • Equity –
  • KCB –
  • Fahari ↓
  • Kenya Airways ↓
  • Kenya Oil ↑
  • NIC ↓
  • NSE ↑
  • Stanbic (Uganda) ↓
  • TPSEA ↓
  • Unga ↑

Summary: Another quarter when most shares are down,  while a few shares were  unchanged.

  • In: None
  • Out: None
  • Increase: None
  • Decrease: None
  • Best performer: NSE (up 22%), Kenol (up 10%)
  • Worst performer: Stanbic (UG) (down 22%(, Barclays (down 19%)

Unexpected Events:

  • Decided to sell out of Bralirwa Rwanda and Stanbic Uganda, but its’ more difficult getting out thatn it was getting in (during their respective IPO’s). For Uganda, you have to open a CDS account there, just to sell your shares.

Looking Forward to: