Category Archives: Kenya economic growth

Why the Future is Kenya

Friday saw the launch of the Future is Kenya a film designed to lead the promotion of Kenya as a leading trade and investment hub. It is led by the Brand Kenya Chairman, Dr. Chris Kirubi, and draws on corporations and other private sector and government officials.

Through a campaign dubbed ‘WHY THE FUTURE IS KENYA’, business leaders drawn from the financial, technology, service and hospitality sectors celebrated Kenya’s status as an investment hub with the premiere of a specially-commissioned short film and campaign launch at Nairobi’s Coca-Cola Auditorium.

Milk Pricing in Kenya

Most supermarkets in Nairobi now have ATM’s/’bars’ which are machines where customers can bring their own containers and buy their own quantities of unbranded milk. Today at one ATM, milk was Kshs 80 compared to about Kshs 110-120 per litre (sold in half litre packs for 55/= or 60/=) for branded milk packs.

Branded milk sachets

But how does milk pricing work? M-Farm tracked a milk trader called Wangondu,  who sells 1 litre of milk at 70/- at his milk bar.

  • Farmers usually use donkeys to transport milk. The wholesaler is introduced into the supply chain at the point which motorbikes transport milk to a center. When there was Mid March scarcity – majority of the milk was sourced from Kinangop at 35 to 37/= per litre.
  • Boda boda people who bring 100 litres to the main road are paid 250/- meaning, the milk bar trader has to add 2.50 per litre bringing the total cost to 40/- per litre. The road is bad; lot’s of push and pull which adds another cost to the milk.
  • Milk is very sensitive and has to be moved quickly. If one is collecting 1,000 litres, it means there will be 20 motorbikes from different sourcing points and have a vehicle using a particular route to collect aggregated milk. At end of day of the day, milk per litre costs a trader about 40/- to 50/- given the circumstances.
  • Pasteurization costs 6/- per litre bringing the total cost thus far to 56/- per litre.
  • Each vehicle collecting aggregated milk has to have 3 people; a driver and 2 loaders. At this point, transport cost of the milk is charged at 6/- per litre. A wholesaler trader calculates his/her profit margin at 3/-.
  • If milk is being sold to a retailer at 65/- they add 5/- margin to retail the milk to 70/- litre. When there’s surplus milk, a trader reduces 5/- per litre by demanding that the farmer delivers the milk to the aggregation center and bears the cost.   Were it not for the rains, the wholesalers had an agreement that on the Saturday before the start of April rains, milk pricing would have retailed from 80/- per litre.
  • When the rains come, they hire an escort to help with the pushing of vehicles who are paid 2/-. “We as traders, take advantage, don’t see the reason why we should sell the milk at 80/- and we see the way farmer and consumers suffer and we have to be neutral. When we have mercy on both the farmer and consumer, the consumer ends up claiming that my milk is cheap because it has been tampered with and therefore, of poor quality.”
  • Bars have lower milk pricing at some supermarkets

    But all the same, the little margins I make are able to pay licenses and pay my handymen in my milk bars. Even after all deductions, I am able to make 1/- or 2/- per litre as profit.

  • When there’s scarcity of milk, we source from Kikuyu and Limuru dairies. Harvesting, transportation to the milk buyer in town, management of milk at the milk bar – this is my business solely. I have to buy from the joint business source,  make sure there are no additives, and we have to be there to make sure the quality you get from the shamba is what we give the customer.

Milk is also being sourced from other countries in East Africa as and there is a butter shortage (affecting bakers like Sugarpie). 500 grams of butter is retailing at Kshs 1,000/- and this is just ridiculous.

$1 = Kshs 103.

Simplifying M-Pesa Payments with 1Tap

As they announced their 2017 financial results today, Safaricom also unveiled 1Tap – the next step of innovation to drive increased financial inclusion in Keyna.

M-Pesa is ten years old and CEO Bob Collymore said that Safaricom was launching “Mpesa 1 tap”  which would reduce the number of steps to complete an M-Pesa transaction, currently about 8 steps on SMS and USSD, to just 1 step.

At the result announcement, the Safaricom CFO Sateesh Kamath said that while 75% of M-Pesa revenue was from traditional person to person transfers, 25% was new from new business like “Lipa na Mpesa” (pay with M-pesa) payments.

Buy Goods is free for customers, except at petrol stations which levy an additional charge, and just over a month ago, Safaricom announced a 50% tariff reduction for all Lipa Na M-PESA Buy Goods merchant fees – to 0.5% of the transaction amount. These were also was capped to Kshs 200 for any payments over Kshs 40,000 (~$400) while payments to merchants below Kshs 200 were made free. Lipa Na M-pesa is used by over 50,000 merchants and Safaricom plans to enable more kiosks, boda-bodas, newspaper vendors and other merchants who are in the informal sector where 80% of Kenyan work to receive such vital business payments at no cost.

Merchants can also get instant payments into their bank accounts at any of 23 partner banks (of the 40 banks in Kenya) from a Lipa Na M-pesa menu in their phones in just a few seconds – and this is useful as many of the merchants don’t have time to go to the bank to deposit cash.

With 1 Tap, all a customer needs to do is tap their cards on the mobile POS machines and then enter their secret M-Pesa PIN to confirm the transaction. Pilot testing for Mpesa 1 Tap has been ongoing in Nakuru where the service now has 13,000 customers and 900 merchants. Kenyans briefly got to see what NFC could work with the Beba Pay service a few years ago, with payments in public service vehicles.

World Bank Reduces Kenya Economic Forecast

A new report from the  World Bank slightly revised down the forecast for Kenya economic growth from the 5.9% achieved last year to 5.5% in 2017. This is attributed to ongoing drought, depressed private sector growth, and rising oil prices while 2016 had low oil prices, tourism recovery, and favourable weather conditions.

At the launch, Central Bank Governor, Patrick Njoroge said the focus should not be on the rate change, but on the medium term in which Kenya’s economy had distinguished itself by its resilience. This comes from Kenya having a highly diversified economy  – a mix of largest export is tea but his tea, and that goes to Egypt (not the UK), the economy has a strong regional focus (25% of exports are to EAC, and 40% to sub-Saharan Africa), a dynamic private sector (that’s becoming more transparency, with good governance & better business models), a well-educated labour force and investments in infrastructure (he said more should be written about the SGR vs. the old lunatic express railway) which will improve the country’s competitiveness. He said that foreign exchange reserves were at an all-time high (5.3 months) and while rains had failed in 2017 and there was a slowdown in bank lending, the risk of Brexit to Kenya was more on foreign direct investment (FDI) side and less on exports.

At the launch, the World Bank also did a report on housing in Kenya titled unavailable and unaffordable that highlighted that there were fewer than 50,000 new houses being built each year compared to an annual demand for 200,000 homes. Also, there’s low financial participation with fewer than 25,000 mortgages in the country, yet mortgages are one of the most secure loans, as people do not default on their homes easily.

The World Bank proposes having a Kenya mortgage refinance company (KMRC) that adapts from other successful models in Malaysia, Morocco (guarantees for 70% of loans) and Nigeria (fully subscribed bond scheme) to see if the number of mortgages in Kenya can go up to 60,000. They also have private-public partnership at Naivasha in Nakuru County to build 1,000 low-cost homes, most of which will be below Kshs 2 million (~$20,000)

Also see a report of an IMF staff visit to Kenya.

Urban Inflation Index: March 2017

Comparing prices and inflation in Nairobi to four and five years ago.

It’s exactly four years since the last election and we are back into campaign mode for an election on August 8. How has life changed since the Jubilee government came to power? There are many reports about economic growth and food inflation, and the budget speech that was read last week had a planned expenditure of Kshs 2.6 trillion (~$25.2 billion) compared to the government’s first budget  that was Kshs 1.6 trillion for 2013/14.

On to the index comparing prices of basic urban commodities.

Gotten Cheaper

Finance: Bank loans are 14.0% due to the interest capping law of 2016. The Central Bank of Kenya’s bank supervision annual report for 2014 notes that the average lending rate was  16.99%  in December 2013 and 15.98% in December 2014.

Fuel: A liter of petrol is Kshs 101 (~$4.41/gallon) today in Nairobi. It was  Kshs. 111.6 per litre in March 2012 and Kshs 117.6 in March 2013.

Cooking Gas: A cylinder of LPG (cooking gas) is Kshs  2,030 today. It was about Kshs. 3,000 ($37) in 2012 for the 13kg cylinder.

Communications: Safaricom dominates. Prices are coming down and both Safaricom and Airtel have combined packages called Flex and Unliminet respectively . With Unliminet, Airtel customers get free WhatsApp, Facebook & Twitter of up to 100MB per day and at Safaricom, every reload of M-PESA  gets someone 3 free FLEX units. On the money transfer side,  Equitel and Pesalink are driving down the cost of mobile money usage.

About the Same

Beer/Entertainment: A bottle of Tusker beer is Kshs 200 at the local pub. This is the same price it was in March 2013.

Utilities: Pre-paid electricity is about Kshs 2,500 per month which is unchanged from the last review. The calculation of pre-paid tokens remains a complicated exercise.

More Expensive

Staple Food: A 2kg pack of (Unga) Maize flour which is used to make Ugali that is eaten by a majority of Kenyans daily, costs Kshs. 147 up from Kshs 97 in March 2012 and Kshs 105 in March 2013. But in his budget speech last week, the Minister proposed to zero-rate bread and maize flour to remove VAT. “ Manufacturers, Wholesalers, and Retailers who sell such goods will be expected to reduce the prices of these basic commodities, failure to which, I will reverse the policy. In addition to further lower the cost to Wananchi, the importation of maize during the next four months will be duty free. I expect, therefore to see a reduction of prices for these basic commodities which enjoyed by majority of our people.”

Other food item: Sugar: A 2 kg. Mumias Sugar pack is now Kshs 292; it was Kshs 245 in March 2012 and Kshs 250 in March 2013. It has hard to find Mumias sugar which is going through some issues, so this is the price of Chemelil sugar at the supermarket.

Foreign Exchange: 1 US$ equals Kshs. about Ksh 103 today compared to Kshs 83 in March 2012 and Kshs 85 in March 2013.

Utility: Water in Nairobi is more expensive.