Monthly Archives: November 2007

Anniversary Redux

Thanks for all the great comments on the 3rd anniversary post.

I’d also like to salute Kenyan Pundit, an inspiration to taking blogging mainstream, on her 4th anniversary (also the first blogger I met).

I’d also like to salute site sponsor Mama Mikes on their
new blog – hopefully that will spur more local companies to take up corporate blogging.

I’d also like to thank other financial bloggers who help share the burden of disseminating and discussing financial information as it occurs here – and these include Cold tusker, Fintrade Capital, Kenya Capital Investment Group, Nairobist, Odegle Nyang (who’s able to mix in political angles), Pesa Tu, Riba Capital, Aly Khan, Ka-Investor and Tanzania Common Cents to name a few.

Thank you for all the people who ay that they have been inspired to start blogging

You said, you said
– More AGM’s: absolutely! In fact, anyone who goes to an AGM is welcome to submit a report here
– Monetization; absolutely, always on the lookout for more sponsors. But this site will remain free. Even the WSJ and New York Times have realized that free content is the way to go
– Background: white/ black does not matter. But I’ m shocked that there are people having trouble reading the white screen.
– Job postings: will continue. They have been useful to some, but not to others
– M I hear you on your points.
– More writing on economics and inflation local development, other African countries, entrepreneurship – Yes
– Politics? No, I’d rather not, there’s enough elsewhere
– Partnerships with other bloggers? Women perspectives? I’d appreciate AGM reports, and any other posts of note for republishing. It’s amazing who know more about economics than you do and where you can learn more from unexpected sources. E.g. talking to Binyavanga Wainaina in Arusha I was amazed by his views on the work ethic and entrepreneurial potential of the Chinese companies and Eritrean nationals. He should write more on economic issues along with literature!

Any other suggestions, e-mail is on the about page

External relations & Diaspora issues

Safaricom IPO
It appears 35% of the shares on offer may be reserved for foreigners, but they may have to pay more per share than local investors or other East African nationals.

IPO please: The necessity of a Safaricom IPO – IMF says Kenya is not paying developemtn debts

No vote
Kenyans abroad always demand the right to vote from any government in power, but without much success. The logistics are not that difficult to manage as other countries are showing;
– About two months ago, a notice appeared in the nation inviting citizens of Botswana wishing to vote in the national elections to come and register at their Nairobi high commission (Gigiri) over a three week period.
– And now the Russia federation has invited its citizens who wish to vote in the state duma elections to come and cast their vote at the Nairobi Russian embassy (Kilimani) all day on December 2 (Sunday) – and all they need are their passports!
– So maybe one day the Electoral Commission of Kenya will be able to assist the Diaspora vote

Diplomatic pass
And just this week the Kenya government has waived entry fees for spouses and children of diplomats working with the US Embassy in Kenya. Hope this is reciprocated by the US.

Strong Shilling
The dollar is the dollar and it has sunk across the board and will continue for the foreseeable future. But the Kenya shilling which is up 12.8% against the dollar is up against almost all major currencies. Using the handy CBK exchange rate tool shows the shilling up 6.6% against the pound 1.2% against the Euro, 12.8 against the (Dubai) Dirham and 6.7% up against the Yen. The shilling is also 5% up against China currency (this year) which was not even tracked by CBK a year ago. In Africa, it is up 10.9% against the SA Rand, and 8.1% & 4.3% against the Ug and Tz shillings respectively.

The impact of a strong shilling can be debated, but is there anything that can be done about it, short of cracking down on the Diaspora, (going back to currency controls) or slowing the economy?

The Central Bank has already taken a beating for the shilling.

Opportunities
most from the daily papers this week

– Africa development bank: portfolio officer, private sector development, chief communication specialist (external relations &comms), ombudsperson, senior investment officer (investments & trading room – treasury), principal (infrastructure, regional integration & trade), principal trade regulation officer (infrastructure, regional integration & trade). Apply to recruit@afdb.org, by 30/11
– Africa online: group head of HR, group head of marketing. Apply to jobs@biz-deas.biz by 7/12
– Consumers insight: associate research director, senior research manager senior research executive, HR manager, front office coordinator jobs@ciafrica.com by 30/11
– Gro FIN – SME finance: business development managers in Kenya Uganda Tanzania. Apply to hr@grofin.com by 3/12
– Hashi empex: supply & planning manager, transport & logistic mgr, sales & marketing mgr, operations mgr. apply to hr@hashiempex.com by 7/12
– Housing finance: service delivery manager, credit risk officer. Apply to esd@deloitte.co.ke
– K-Rep bank: finance manager, regional manger (coast, nyanza, western, eastern, Nairobi provinces), monitoring & evaluation officer, microfinance officer intern. Apply by 7/12 though snail mail
– KTN on-screen talent search. Email screen1@eastandard.net
– Kenya film corporation : Internal auditor, communications officer, legal officer. Apply to info@filmingkenya.com by 30/11
– Business development manager at nation media group apply to bdm@nation.co.ke by 30/11
– NOCK: fuel business cared coordinator, alternative business executive. Apply to hr@nockenya.co.ke by 13/12
– Financial advisors at Winton investment services. Apply to jobs@wintoninvestments.com

tenders
– Resellers at Africa online resellers
– Malta Guinness business distributors for east Africa breweries d/l is 20/12- International tender from Kenya Pipeline Company and Kenya petroleum refineries ltd for an LPG import, handling, import, storage bottling facility. d/l is 21/1
– International tender for modernization of number plates by the Kenya Government (Office of the Vice president and Ministry of Home Affairs) d/l is 21/12

Mea culpa: more stockbrokers

I have always been an advocate for more stockbrokers in the country especially to serve in the rural areas.

But, as narrated in real lean times, there is a serious shortage of investors, not brokers.

This is because most Kenyan shareholders are buy and hold investors not active traders or speculators. This is seen where companies with huge numbers of shareholders have relatively small numbers of CDS accounts (many of which are ghost companies created to increase IPO allocations).

So for those stockbrokers such as Discount Securities and CFC who have built nationwide branches, the volumes of investors and trades at these offices are relatively low – as a trip to the Mombasa and Nairobi offices of these brokers showed quick services, sparse halls and low activity. Such places only become strained before and after IPO’s but otherwise return to a slow pace.

So who should bridge the gap – productively and profitably? Stock agents, and stockbrokers through partnerships (such as CFC through Postal Corporation), Suntra (through Postbank) and Ngenye Kariuki (through K-Rep bank) to handle the everyday activities, but not by stockbrokers opening up nationwide branches.

Next time you see crowds around the block will be the Safaricom IPO in December.

Other Thursday briefs’

NSE:

  • Speaking of Safaricom, there was a story in the Wall Street Journal focusing on if the $500 million IPO will be accessible to foreign investors. A co-listing in London is possible using GDR’s
  • Best wishes to NSE Chairman Jimnah Mbaru who will be contesting the Starehe parliamentary seat and stockbroker Ngenye Kariuki in Kiharu.

Banking:

  • The government will sell 2/3 of the 90% shareholding in the Development Bank of Kenya.
  • K-rep to raise 500 million through a bond
  • Islamic banking spreads as both K-Rep (Halat) and National Bank (Al Mumin) add Shariah-compliant banking products

Real estate:

  • Is the property boom over? Apartments are going vacant while office spaces are full, and what impact will that have on banks holding mortgages and real estate investment portfolios? Hat tip Kamau
  • Tororo cement of Uganda will construct a cement factory in Kitengela
  • The Ministry of housing to construct 526 houses for civil servants in Ngara phase II

Awards & events:

  • East Africa’s most respected company crowned this weekend in Tanzania
  • Bank awards by Thinkbusiness.co.ke to be awarded on 5th December
  • Strathmore University hosts a microfinance seminar starting November 23
  • An ICT outsourcing expo is being held at the safari park hotel from November 27.

Opportunities:

  • Equity Bank: business growth & development managers, credit managers, archives & record managers. Details online. D/L is 30/11
  • Ernst & young: managing director E&Y advisory services ltd (EYAS) details online. D/L is 7/12
  • ICPAK: business & professional development officer. Apply to icpak@icpak.com by 30/11
  • KTN TV onscreen positions, full & part-time. Apply to screen@eastandard.net by 23/11
  • KTDA; General manager trading, head of strategy & planning, Network administrator, treasury & trade finance officer, marketing executive. Apply to recruitment@ktdateas.com by 26/11

Thanksgiving Portfolio

Earlier: Thanksgiving 2006 portfolio

The Stable
Diamond Trust
Express
ICDCI
KCB
Scangroup
Sameer
Stanbic (UG)
Total
* Uchumi (suspended)

What’s changed?
In: ICDCI
Out: None
Increase: Diamond Trust (rights), Scangroup
Lightened: KCB
Dividends expected: no interims
Unexpected gains/losses:
New listings not taken on: Kenya Re
Best performer: Stanbic (Ug)
Worst Performer: Total (though the dividend is assured)

Looking forward to: none really. I sat out of the Kenya Re IPO, and then didn’t really want it after the shares listed – maybe next year. Same with the Safaricom IPO which is getting dangerously close to the election, but which I expect to sit out again and instead give the money I have to some candidates (2 parliamentary, 1 civic) toward election expenses.

Lessons learnt: (i) you should not try and time trades e.g. company books for dividend close on Thursday, so you try and buy shares on Tuesday – just won’t work; think and trade long term (ii) attempts to buy low and sell high by setting a price based on yesterday’s high/low also won’t work; so think long term and don’t worry about intra-day prices

Performance Summary: The Motley Fool advises that investors should beat the share index to consider their returns a success. The NSE 20 share index is up 1% in the last six months while my portfolio is down 0.7% from May 2007. The actual share holdings are up about 13% but with the cash taken out from when KCB shares sold, the net position is down.

3rd Anniversary: Idea Exchange

It’s almost the third anniversary of this blog (started in November 2004) and it’s time to reflect on the 800 or so posts that appear here. It’s been great channeling everyday stories and knowledge and new, finding obscure pieces in the Kenya Gazette or the classifieds and building something worthwhile to write about. Also, some posts have been obscure, trivial, and forgotten a day after.

Now there’s a support group of other financial bloggers (see the blog roll to the right) to spread the financial word as well as the Business Daily which has been a great resource for me over the last year – and I truly enjoy it though I question its long term viability.

Dear readers: Idea exchange
This is also a chance to improve going forwards and readers are invited to offer their suggestions;

– Why do you read this? What do you hate?
– What topics would you liked to see covered more? Or less? As long as there are shillings involved, it’s worth blogging about.
– Do you like the design? Go back to black?
– More posts or less?
– What features, enhancements, tools, can be added to enhance the information and participation at this blog? Digg etc?
– What blogs would you like to introduce here? Preferably financial, social, or economic with an African or development focus
– Would you like to advertise or collaborate on an idea? Remember this has been an one man shop with full time social, family, and work activities
– Any other ideas? Comment her or drop a line via the contact page