Kenya Eurobond 2018

Kenya’s National Treasury has just announced a new $2 billion Eurobond which was seven times oversubscribed amid concerns about the country’s debt levels and intrigues about the availability of an IMF financing line.

The official Kenya Government statement reads: The fact that we got $14billion in investor appetite reflected the continued support the country receives. We now have a dollar yield curve stretching out to 30 years, making Kenya one of only a handful of government’s in Africa to achieve this. 

The funds are earmarked for development initiatives, liquidity management, and ambitious infrastructure programs. It goes further to add that the Eurobond issue will be listed on the London Stock Exchange and that the joint Mandated arrangers were Citi, J.P. Morgan, Standard Bank, and Standard Chartered Bank.

There was little awareness about the bond, no prospectus was publicly released, and there was no indication on which investors the Eurobond was being pitched to, but it appears that the successful issue will be dated February 28, 2018. 

The Eurobond breakdown is for a mix of two equal halves of 10 year and 30 year bonds, priced at 7.25% and 8.25% respectively.

The announcement comes after some potentially embarrassing news reports that the International Monetary Fund had cut off a line of funding, a statement which was later retracted, and others that Moody’s had downgraded Kenya’s ratings, a claim which the government also disputed.

But the ratings cut, and the mysterious IMF news (and retraction) did not appear to have an impact on the pitch to investors.

This is the second Eurobond after another set of bond issues in 2014.
$1 = Kshs 101.4

Fintech Companies to Watch and Influencers in 2018

Companies: Last November, KPMG and H2 Ventures released a report listing their fourth annual fintech innovators (‘Fintech100’)  comprising 50 established companies and 50 emerging companies to watch in Fintech.  The companies are innovation across sector like banking, payments, remittances, spending, artificial intelligence, data management, and insurance.
They noted that China continues to dominate the fintech landscape, with 5 of the top 10 companies on the list. Digital or new banks in the list include Solaris Bank, Nu Bank, and Atom Bank.
Some notable companies on the list;
  • ZhongAn (online property insurance)
  • Stripe (frictionless financial transactions)
  • OurCrowd provides an equity crowdfunding platform for accredited investors to access and invest in Israeli companies)
  • Circle (free international remittance via email)
  • Xapo allows users to utilize their bitcoins while Xapo safely stores them)
  • Future Finance (gives students loans of 2,000 to 40,000 pound,  within 24 hours that can be paid over 5 years)
  • Coinbase (enables digital currency transactions)
  • AfterPay Touch (from Australia gives online shopping users an option to spread purchases across four equal installments)
  • Robinhood (free stock trading of US stock and ETF’s)
  • Alan (Europe’s  first digital health insurance company)
  • Bud (enables users to combine bank accounts and get personalised insights from a single source)
  • Capital Float (from India provides collateral-free working capital loans to small businesses within 3 days)
  • Cuvva (provides short-term,  flexible car insurance to consumer groups, including taxi- drivers that range from 1 hour to 28 days)
  • Flutterwave (from Nigeria, is in over 36 African countries, enables individuals and businesses to accept online and offline payments)
  • GrassRoots Bima (from Kenya matches customers with micro-insurance products – known as WazInsure)
  • KredX (from India matches SMEs seeking working capital with investors looking for above-average yield on short-term investments)
  • Leveris (banking platform for digital retail banks)
  • Riby (Nigeria cooperatives enabler)
  • Sensibill (allows bank customers to get their receipts in a few different ways)
  • SoCash (addresses cash logistics issues for banks)
  • Token (an API banking platform)
  • Valiant Finance (an online broking platform for SME’s) 
Influencers: Also, Jay Palter has a list of 195 fintech influencers for the year 2018; have only heard of a few – Brett King (who visited and spoke in Nairobi in January 2017), Yann Ranchere, Elon Musk and Vinod Khosla, but will check out the rest.
EDIT
 
Also,  the new CB Insights report on fintech observations and trends to watch in 2018 cites:
  • No billion-dollar fintech M&A in 2017
  • Chinese firms drove fintech IPOs in 2017
  • Europe saw record for fintech investing in 2017, as Asia and the US saw fintech funding recede
  • Amazon gets more aggressive in fintech — outside of the US, but Amazon’s US efforts are a far cry from Tencent and Ant Financial’s global fintech forays in China
  • The largest deals in 2017 went to companies providing insurance…
  • Startups are allowing Chinese investors to access overseas securities and In 2017, Ant Financial’s Yu’e Bao became the largest money market fund in the world
  • Banks forgo partnering in favor of fighting fintech with fintech 

Reading the Nairobi Hospital tea leaves

What does a read of The Nairobi Hospital, which is probably the top hospital in East Africa, tell us about the state of medical investments here? The Nairobi Hospital (NH) was founded in 1954, and it, alongside Aga Khan Hospital,  is where top leaders, politicians from Kenya and the East Africa region are treated. It is also where middle-class Kenyans, tourists, and anyone with private medical insurance is treated or operated on.

Nairobi Hospital room

But treatment at Nairobi Hospital is not cheap; , a few days stay without surgery will cost about Kshs 300,000 (about $3,000) and a night in the intensive care unit (ICU ) is about Kshs 500,000!
Kenyans who have medical conditions have discovered that traveling to India for surgery, medicine, and other complex treatment procedures is a better option, even after one factors in the cost of travel for patient and relatives who oversee the patient.
Anyway, how does the Nairobi Hospital (officially registered as the Kenya Hospital Association) in 2016 compare to a few years earlier with the hospital’s 2009 report?
  • Turnover was Kshs 8.79 billion (~$88 million), up from 8.0 billion in 2015.
  • They had a surplus of Kshs 1.3 billion  ($13 million) up from Kshs 1.06 billion, but below the Kshs 1.4 billion in 2014.
  • Some income items: Pharmacy income was 2.5 billion (a 13% growth on the previous year) and the pharmacy had 60% growth in chemotherapy sales thanks to NHIF package (partnership with NHIF has opened doors to our brothers and sisters who would otherwise have not received world class health services. This has seen a rise in number of patients accessing their preferred health care in our Cancer Center, Renal Unit and Catheterization Laboratory. Laboratory income was Kshs 1.4 billion (they have also implemented o shore reporting from India for CT scan, MRI and mammography). Physiotherapy revenue was Kshs 246 million, and accident and emergency revenue was Kshs 374 million (53% of visits were done in 75 minutes and they plan to reduce the waiting time).
  • Some expense items: The Nairobi Hospital paid salaries of Kshs 2.5 billion (compared to Kshs 2.1 billion in 2015) and they added 276 staff in the year (including 128 nurses), a CEO, Company Secretary, and a Security Manager. Key management compensation dropped from Kshs 130 million to Kshs 93 million (in 2015) – and does that difference correspond to the salary of the outgoing CEO who left to become Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Health? They also bought medicine worth Kshs 1.7 billion, paid cleaning costs of Kshs 71M, Oxygen with 41M and paid Kshs 21 million to credit card companies
  • The Nairobi Hospital invested Kshs 2.1 billion in projects such as pharmacy, water storage, parking, nurses accommodation, roads, fencing, and kitchen improvements. They also hired a marketing agency to improve the image and awareness about services at the hospital and participated in news interviews, features, and social media.  
  • Some operational numbers for the hospital: They had 154,760 visits to accident & emergency centre, carried out 685,802 lab tests, handed out 354,296 prescriptions, and did 98,198 radiology procedures. They had 18,386 admissions, had 2,730 births (a 17% decline from the year before), and did 7,990 major operations and 1,975 minor ones. They also an occupancy level of 79%, which was down from 81% on their 299  beds, and they retained their customer satisfaction measure of 89%.  The relocation of their ICU / HDU units temporarily reduced capacity from 356 to 299 beds. 
  • On the finance side, they had cash and equivalents of Kshs 2.7 billion (down from 3.5 billion) but still a very healthy liquidity position. They also had Kshs 399 million at Imperial Bank and had Kshs 280 million of doubtful debts (up from 240 million), and Kshs 24 million in foreign exchange losses from currency fluctuations.  
  • The new Nairobi Hospital CEO wrote that his strategy would revolve around talent, technology, turnaround and territory (new location to enhance service). On the health industry, which contributes 6% to GDP, he wrote that income at the Kenya government’s National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF) had more than doubled to Kshs 28.5 billion in 2016 thanks to new rates levied on Kenyan workers and that there were 172,706 health personnel in Kenya in 2016.
 
Website of the Nairobi Hospital.  

Kengen the Geothermal Powerhouse

Kenya is the only African country that has successfully tapped the green energy potential of geothermal power and is ranked number eight in the world. Kenya’s 676MW geothermal output trails that of the USA (3,567MW) Philippines, Indonesia, New Zealand, Italy, Mexico, Turkey, and ahead of Iceland, and Japan.

The bulk of this geothermal power comes from the Kenya Electricity Generating Company (Kengen) which supplies 1.6GW (80%) of the country’s 2.3GW electricity output. Of that 533MW is from geothermal energy, primarily from the Olkaria area near Naivasha, where the first wells were dug in 1950 and their deployment and production accelerated after 2007.

Kengen has 294 drilled walls with an 80% success rate, and part of that leap has been due to a Kengen-pioneered “wellhead technology”, which was done in partnership with Green Energy, an Icelandic company. Wellhead technology allows Kengen to tap steam energy within a year or two of sinking a well and recoup their investments faster (it usually costs $6 million to dig a well). In all, Kengen generates 75MW from 7 wellhead stations at Olkaria and one at Eburu.

Kengen’s Olkaria IV geothermal power plant.

In terms of electricity generation, Kengen plans to have supply stay ahead of demand especially considering the long setup time for energy plants (about seven years). With funds raised from shareholders and investors in 2016, they plan to add 1,000 MW to reach 1,745MW by the year 2025.

Kenya has an estimated 10,000 MW of geothermal power potential, and geothermal steam allows high energy demand manufacturing such as steel, cement and glass processing take place. These are currently hampered by the high costs of electricity, but the separation processes of geothermal gases means that such companies can tap steam to use at their factories nearby and this is the strategy behind a planned Kengen industrial park at Olkaria, Naivasha. Already Oserian Flowers buys steam and pipes it to heat their greenhouses in the nearby area.

As at  June 2017, Kengen had a diversified mix of installed energy sources comprising Hydro 818 MW (including Masinga 40 MW , Kamburu 94.2MW, Gitaru 225MW, Kindaruma 72MW, Kiambere 168MW, Turkwel 106MW,  Sondu 60MW,  Sangoro 21.2MW, Tana 20MW), Geothermal 534 MW (Olkaria I 45 MW, Olkaria II 105MW, Olkaria IV 149.8MW, Olkaria I AU 150.5MW), Thermal 253.5 MW (Kipevu I 73.5MW, Kipevu III 120MW, gas turbines 60MW) and wind power 25.5MW (three phases at Ngong Hills).

Kenya has a liberated energy production market, and other private sector players in the geothermal sector who are seeking support under a private-public partnership program include Sosian Power, Quantum Power, and Akiira, as wells as Africa Geothermal and Orpower who are close by Kengen’s fields at Olkaria.

NSE Shares Portfolio February 2018

Comparing performance to six months ago a year ago, this portfolio is down 4% mainly due to shares sales, while the while the NSE 20 share index is down 7% from August 2017.

The Stable

Atlas —
Centum ↑
CIC Insurance ↓
Diamond Trust ↑
KCB ↑
Fahari  REIT↓
Kenya Airways ↑*
NIC ↑
NSE ↓
Stanbic (Uganda) ↑
TPSEA ↑
Unga ↓

In: None
Out: Bralirwa, at a 55% gain since buying in the Bralirwa IPO in 2011.edit TPSEA (Serena)
Increase: None
Decrease: None
Best performer: Kenya Airways*  (shares were diluted four times, price is up 235% from six months ago), Serena (up 36%), Diamond Trust 8%
Worst performer(s): Unga down 12%, CIC down 10% from six months ago)
Unexpected Events: (1) The offer by Seaboard to buy and de-list Unga (2) Kenya Airways restructuring impact on retail shareholders(3) Kenya bank shares resilience in their share prices even with concerns about their earnings growth in the era of interest rate caps.

Looking Forward to: (1) Banks expect interest rate caps to be re-assessed in 2018 (results in February 2018 (2) More infrastructure bonds from the government like M-Akiba (3) CIC developing a mixed-use project (Residential, commercial, educational, and recreational units) on 200 acres near Tatu City, Kiambu.