Bankers predict Euro 2021

The covid-delayed Euro 2020 soccer tournament kicks off tomorrow, on June 11, a year behind schedule.

Ahead of soccer tournaments in past years, several banks including Goldman Sachs, ING, Nomura, UBS and ABN Amro have all made predictions of who will win. There’s more attention and interest with global tournaments, such as the World Cup as the larger pool of diverse teams, including from Africa, make such banking predictions more exciting.

So far, only Goldman Sachs has had a statistical team and computers analyze and come up with match predictions. Their model and report shows:

  • Denmark, England, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal and Spain will top their groups. The nations will win all their group matches, except for Portugal.
  • The current European champions, Portugal, are in the tournament’s “group of death” that also features Hungary and perennial soccer heavyweights of Germany and France.
  • The tournament has matches in eleven countries because of covid-19, and playing at home will give an advantage to the home nations. All the group winners host games, along with cities in Russia, Scotland, Hungary, Romania and Azerbaijan.
  • Aside from being in the toughest group, France, winners of the 2018 World Cup, do not have home matches and enter the tournament with poor recent momentum. 
Will Giroud propel France forward?.
  • Belgium is the favourite of the Goldman Sachs model, as well as of many betting oddsmakers.
  • The final and semi-final are at Wembley in England, who will not feature, as they will have been knocked out by Spain in the quarter-finals, after defeating Germany.
  • The semi-final will see Belgium eliminate Portugal as Italy edge past Spain.
  • In the final, Belgium will defeat Italy, in extra time, and win their first Euro trophy.  

AfDB 2021 annual meetings

The African Development Bank Group (AfDB) has announced its series of annual meetings for 2021.

The theme of the annual meetings which will take place from June 23-25 is “building resilient economies in post-covid Africa” and will include the 56th annual meeting of the governors of the African Development Bank and the 47th one of the African Development Fund. The 81 governors of the bank will review the annual report and operations of the group and adopt key resolutions with a focus on inclusive growth, debt and governance.

Just like in 2020, the meetings will be held virtually due to the ongoing Covid-19 situation in which the prescribed mitigation measures are restricted gatherings and travels.

Most dialogue sessions will be restricted to only the governors and bank officials, but there will be some” knowledge events” that are open to the public such as on climate change and building Africa’s health defences.

EDIT: Also during the annual meetings will be the 2021 African Banker Awards with the two main ones being the African Bank of the Year Award (contested by Afreximbank, Attijariwafa, Banque Centrale Populaire, Commercial International Bank, Equity Group Holdings, Standard Bank Group, Trade and Development Bank and Zenith Bank) and the African Banker of the Year between Ade Ayeyemi of Ecobank Transnational Admassu Tadesse (TDB), Brehima Amadou Haidara (Banque de Développement du Mali), Herbert Wigwe (Access Bank), James Mwangi of Equity Group, João Figueiredo – (MozaBanco), and Kennedy Uzoka of United Bank for Africa.

Also Innovation in Financial Services Award, Financial Inclusion Award, Sustainable Bank, SME Bank, Investment Bank (with nominees Absa EFG Hermes, FBNQuest, Misr Capital, and  Standard Bank of South Africa. There is also the Energy Deal of the Year Award, Debt Deal of the Year (which includes Dangote Cement PLC $208 million bond by FBNQuest), and Agriculture Deal of the Year which has nominees from Banque Misr, Standard Bank Group, Nedbank, Stanbic IBTC Capital and, Afreximbank.

Some of the other nominees of include the Equity Deal of the Year Award, which has the Acorn Holdings student accommodation bond/REIT by Renaissance Capital, Infrastructure Deal of the Year in which TDB is nominated for both Kigali’s King Faisal Hospital and Tanzania’s Standard Gauge Railway.

Family Bank to raise Notes

A few weeks after retiring a bond issue e early, Family Bank has launched a new medium-term notes (MTN) program.

Family Bank has got approval from the Capital Markets Authority to borrow up to Kshs 8 billion over the next five years to go towards growing its capital base, launch new products, and support lending mainly to MSME’s (micro, small, medium enterprises) . The first tranche will be Kshs 4 billion. 

This announcement is a welcome sign for the Nairobi corporate bond scene that has been shrinking for the last few years. Last week East African Breweries (EABL) announced it was retiring its bond program, and earlier, in April 2021, Family Bank had paid back Kshs 2 billion to its noteholders – concluding a Kshs 10 billion borrowing multi-currency program of fixed and floating rate bonds that it had launched in 2015.   

CEO Rebecca Mbithi said she was confident of the bank’s upward trajectory as Family is the fourth largest bank in the country by branch network, with 92 branches. The bank has recorded net compounded growth of profit-after-tax of 21% in the last five years, with assets growing annually by 7% and deposits by 14%. In the first quarter of 2021, it had a 71% increase compared to its earnings last year. 

Transaction advisors for the MTN program are NCBA Investment Bank and Genghis Capital. Other partners are PricewaterhouseCoopers (reporting accountants), MTC (note trustees), Mboya Wangong’u & Waiyaki (legal)  and Tim-Sky Media (PR). 

EDIT June 8: Family Bank Bond details are out.

  • The first tranche aims to raise Kshs 3 billion (about $27.8 million) in Kenya shillings or other currencies, with a 1 billion green-shoe option.
  • Maturity is 5.5 years.
  • The rate is fixed at 13% p.a. or floating (at the T-bill ±2.5%).
  • Funds may be used to expand branches, for on-lending, ICT investments, capital strengthening or regional markets entry.
  • Bond opens on 8 June, closes on 22 June,
  • The minimum investment amount is Kshs 100,000 (about $927)
  • Interest payments will be twice a year.
  • Bonds will be listed at the NSE from June 2021 to December 2026.

Stanbic Uganda 2021 AGM

Stanbic, the largest bank in Uganda held its shareholders’ annual general meeting this morning. Beamed online, the 15th AGM of the bank was held virtually and shareholders were invited to register, watch the stream online and vote on the resolutions.

Excerpts

  • The bank is listed on the Uganda securities exchange and has 22, 000 shareholders
  • Much was made about Flyhub, their new financial services and innovation subsidiary created to compete with fintechs.
  • Shareholders could get their meeting packs on their phones, with the notice and annual report. Also, they could ask questions, and over 90 were received ahead of or during the AGM.
  • There is some board restructuring in Uganda as they separate banks from holding companies. As such, no directors retired at the AGM this year
  • Shareholders voted to adopt the meeting notice, new directors, audited report, and non-executive director fees
  • They voted to approve a dividend (Ushs 2.15 per share) for 2019 that was paid in April 2021. They also voted on a dividend for 2020 (Ushs 1.86 per share) that is in abeyance. The board has applied to the Bank of Uganda to pay the 2020 dividend but that has been refused as the regulator wants banks to withhold discretionary payouts and preserve capital during Covid-19. As such the board did not recommend this item.
  • Shareholders could vote the whole morning, and, just before the end of the meeting, the results were displayed instantly.

Another good thing is Stanbic recently solved a pain point for cross border investors, and allowed them to register and receive dividends by mobile money – such as Safaricom M-Pesa, instead of cheques.

It was the closest thing to attending the AGM of a foreign bank held in Nairobi.

Guide to Monaco

A guest post of a trip to the Principality of Monaco, the city-state on the French Riviera, where the Monaco Grand Prix is taking place tomorrow. It’s a normal, but pricey, place for the rest of the year when Formula One is not having a race weekend.  

Getting There: Fly into Paris or a nearby major European city. You will need to get a connecting flight into Nice. 

Nice Airport is fairly easy to navigate especially coming from Paris. There may be additional customs regulations coming from other European countries though. 

Once you exit baggage claim, you can take a train, bus, taxi or helicopter to Monaco. To truly enjoy the wind-down to the Principality, take the bus or a taxi. A taxi will be +$100 so opt for the buses which leave every hour or so. The train is less than $10 but you miss much of the view. 

Getting Around: You can get along speaking English but please, please learn some French if only to read the signs and communicate politely with vendors. The majority of people here speak English, probably better than you but it would behove you to learn their language. 

Staying in Touch:  Safaricom Welcomes You to France! If you are there for a while longer, you should get a SIM in Paris though. 

Where to Stay: Save money and stay in France. The city of Fontvieille in France surrounds the principality and has several hotels. It’s an easy walk to the harbour and there are parts where you can take an escalator or lift down to the port. Go any time after the summer to get hotel deals that are ‘normal’. There are also several AirBnB options but depending on when you go, prices will be higher than you expect. Some try and stay in Nice and commute in which is fine but if you can, stay in the city. 

Visa, MasterCard are well accepted. In November, you can get a decent hotel rate of about $170 a night. Breakfast and lunch may set you back about $120 but you can budget and meal plan for your mealtimes. If your hotel offers a breakfast deal, take it. 

Eating Out:  Food, France, Immigration. Italy is a short train ride away. For the sake of doing it, get on the metro to the city of Ventimiglia, Italy which is accessible from Monaco. You will pass Menton, France where a good chunk of the people who work in Monaco live and after that, a whole new country.

Lunch is a great way to explore the cuisine. Often enough, you’ll be too full to contemplate dinner. There is one supermarket in Monaco – a Spur that is so hidden, good luck finding it. You can always go to the big Carrefour in Fontvieille, France for a big shop. It’s near the Stade Louis II. 

Odd Points: Tipping. A service charge may already be added to your restaurant meal so if you tip, it will be a tip on top of a tip. Keep an eye out on your bill for service compris

Shopping & Sight-Seeing: Monaco is super safe. It’s hard not to look like a tourist but make sure to map out a plan before you leave your hotel in the morning. It’s a small country so you can’t really get lost but make sure not to look like a complete boob when walking around. Ladies – unless you are stepping out of a car into a restaurant, you do not want to wear heels exploring Monaco. Be sensible yet stylish. See yachts parked for the winter, some on sale, and pricey apartments, with advertisements in Russian.

La Condamine where the locals shop but you will find every single luxury item in the world in this tiny country. Save your money, park yourself at a restaurant outside and gawp at the fabulous beautiful people. Take home gift – a souvenir at a gift shop in Monaco. Include the receipt. 

Seriously, set yourself up for a lazy weekend brunch or a late evening drink and watch the beautiful people in their natural habitat. We spotted Flavio Briatore!

Sights to See: The streets. Do the F1 grid walk! Also, the Oceanography Museum in Monaco is well-curated and a must-visit for its’ exhibits and breathtaking views outside of the principality. Seriously an underrated and affordable highlight! Depending on when you go, see if there are other events ongoing such as a food and wine festival in November. 

Biggest surprise in the country? At the tourist offices, you can get an entry stamp in your passport!