Safaricom @ NSE Day 10

Deals 5,216
Turnover 480.5 million shillings [$7.62 million],
Average 7.84, Closing 7.80, High 7.90, Low 7.70, Last 7.85
Shares volume 61.2 million shares

Commentary: Still beneath 8.00, the key pivot. On classic chart theory, the recent price is creating a triangle pattern, which normally indicates an upcoming break [either side actually]. It’s well supported at 7.80; volumes are slowing so I expect a break to the upside. [Data courtesy of Rich.Co.Ke – NSE data vendor]

That’s the final piece from Rich.Co.Ke, after a great two weeks of the new share on the Nairobi Stock Exchange, on to other things from next week. How have NSE shares fared since Safaricom was listed?

Price change since June 9

56% Safaricom
6% Athi Rive Mining
2% NMG, Access Kenya
1% Housing Finance, Equity, D-Trust, BAT, Kenol, Olympia
= Kenya Airways, Jubilee, City Trust
-1% Barclays, Kakuzi, CFC, Standard Chartered, Express
-2% KCB
– 3% CMC
-4% NIC, Kenya Re, Standard, TPSEA, Sasini
-5% Unga, NBK
-6% EA Cables, Total, Mumias, ICDCI, Scangroup, Rea Vipingo
– 7% KPLC, Crown
– 8% EABL
-9 % Kengen
-14% Sameer
– 16% Eveready

Safaricom @ NSE Day 9

Deals 5,344
Turnover Kshs. 462.6 million ($7.34 million)
Average 7.86
Closing 7.85
High 7.90
Low 7.80
Last 7.85
Volume 58.9 million shares

Commentary: Very tight range. 8.00 remains the pivot. We are still distributing shares just below that level. Crossing 8.00 will be a bullish development. 7.50 – 7.70 is strong support. Data courtesy of Rich.Co.Ke [NSE data vendor]

Kutwa Tuesday – June 18

yes it’s Wednesday, but these relate to recent events

2008 Budget
– While the ICT sector was celebrating, a 25% tax on imported used computers was added on
– Wireless providers also pay a 10% tax, same as mobile companies (putting Telkom wireless on par with Safaricom and Celtel)
– Whistle blower on tax evasion may be entitled to 3% or 5% tax recovered by KRA. (but too late for David Munyakei)
– And from Tanzania; a brilliant idea that sounded dumb initially – at tax on loss making companies; It’s an alternative minimum tax for companies that report tax losses for three consecutive years – and will now amount to of 0.3% of their turnover. This is targeted at companies with high turnover that engage in tax avoidance could KRA adopt that later?

CFC Stanbic: In the CFC-Stanbic merger/takeover, shareholders voiced concerns that some CFC shareholders were getting paid and walking away from the company with cash. Now three of them – Gambit, Trogon, and Jani are voluntarily winding up

IPO refunds: The Central Bank is concerned about the slow pace of Safaricom refunds (statement (PDF))
– Yet there was there option in the initial prospectus for applicants to be refunded by M-pesa; which would have been ideal for thousands of minimum applicants [who are getting refunds of about 7,900 shillings or $127]
– The CBK statement mentions that you can send a message to confirm the status of your refund e.g. “CDS#ID#R” to 4009. (my message told me my cheque which I collected last week, was ready at the broker). What it doesn’t tell you is that the message costs 15 shillings or ~ 2 Safaricom shares at the going rate

Safaricom @ NSE Day 8

Deals: 5,620
Turnover: Kshs 883.5 million [$14 million]
Average price 7.84
Closing 7.80 (no change)
High 7.90
Low 7.70
Last 7.90
Volume 112.6 million shares

Commentary: We are still below the 8 pivot, which is key. The pull back was very shallow and confirms underlying muscularity. Foreign buying and selling is now in balance. Courtesy of Rich.Co.Ke [NSE data vendor]

All Safaricom, all the time?
Meanwhile AKS [Rich.co.ke] has a Nairobi Star column and in February this year, started a running NSE portfolio 2008 with Equity, Access Kenya, Athi River Mining, and Sasini. This week, he retired the portfolio – cashed in a 50% gain to throw everything into Safaricom!

Mainstream blogging
stuff I used to post about and need to get back after IPO rush

Meet the bloggers: The Nairobi barcamp is now set for June 21 and is shaping up to be one of the biggest ever with a packed day planned

Meet the money: Two opportunities for bloggers to meet the e-government, BPO, and Kenya ICT Board officials on 19th and 21st of June. first come, first served

Safaricom @ NSE Day 7

Deals 10,506
Turnover Kshs. 950.9 million [$14.86 million]
Average price 7.83
Closing 7.80 (-1.27%)
High 8.05
Low 7.70
Last 7.80
Volume 122 million shares

Commentary:
Slightly more defensive session ahead of 8.00 which is now the pivot. We will cross 8.00, its a question of time. Sellers will be exhausted given the turnover
– This morning: Excluding today, total share volume has been 1.2 billion shares which is 12% of the total shares sold. Shares are moving quickly from loose hands into those of medium term Investors. 8 and around is currently the clearing price for the flippers. Crossing 8 will be bullish
– Courtesy of Rich.Co.Ke [NSE data vendor]