Mark Mobius on Emerging Markets

Dr. Mark Mobius, the executive Chairman of Franklin Templeton Investments,is in Nairobi this week. He gave a talk this morning on his investment perspectives. It is especially timely considering the bear market being experience the world over and at the Nairobi Stock Exchange this year.

Some notes
– They are bargain hunters, they love cheap stocks and thus love bear markets
– Emerging markets look good for long term investors for several reasons: they are growing faster than developed countries, they have less debt, they have more reserves, inflation is coming down, they are taking up a lager share of world trade and also trading more with each other
– Bull markets are followed by bear markets which are followed by bull markets then bear……
– Bull markets last longer than bear markets, and values appreciate more during bear markets than they depreciate during bear markets. he said by their measures over the last 20 years bull markets last on average 22 months and values appreciate by 113% while bear markets on average last 6 months and values depreciate 32%
– Various FT funds are concentrated in mainly energy stocks, then banks, raw materials, communications etc.

My take: This is a time to buy Nairobi Stock Exchange Shares (NSE) , if you have the money and a long term investment perspective

EABL 2008 AGM

The 86th annual general meeting (AGM) of East African Breweries was held on 30/10/08 at Safari Park Hotel. The actual meeting business (passing of accounts, election of directors, and approval of auditors) all took about 10 minutes. There was only one question on the accounts and the rest of the meeting was left to a myriad of shareholder questions.

Why Financial Markets Crashed: The meeting began with a talk from the former chairman of the Nairobi Stock exchange Kibuga Kariithi (Director Afrika Investment Bank). He traced a path of American economic exuberance, greedy investment bankers, sub-prime-mortgages, careless insurers which all led to a liquidity crunch and loss of confidence in the markets – eventually reached Kenya

He exhorted EABL shareholders that their company was strong, with growing sales, profits, products and almost 7 billion shillings in the bank. He said the market would remain so for a few more months, maybe with a few more bank crashes, but the fundamentals of EABL and other companies were strong and this was a time for shareholders not to panic or sell, but to consider buying more shares.

Mini-controversies:

  • Crap Calendar: One of the goodies handed out was a (single-sheet) wall calendar. Which was not well received by several shareholders. It was called, cheap, not in keeping with the image of the company, not as good as the one which was given to distributors, and eventually, even the chairman had to admit that it was a poor quality item.
  • End for Chami?: Mr. Chami is a (small) shareholder in almost every listed company and a feature at almost all NSE-listed company AGM’s held. He unusually is the first to ask any questions and almost all directors know him. He usually asks but occasionally hits the mark. Today he got off to a bad start giving a 5 minutes speech that led to a round of boos by shareholders. When he finally got to asking questions, he was challenged by the Chairman on the accuracy and validity of his questions – and told not to waste the time of the other 700 shareholders present if he had no questions. Hope it does not spread to other meetings

Mr. Chami

Trivia some questions asked by shareholders

  • Start with prayers
  • More environmental plans; will consider energy savings from steam and have participated in forestry activities in Ndakaini and may look at (the) Mau when government sorts out the matter
  • Unclaimed dividend: a bill has been prepared on unclaimed assets that will soon be in parliament after which companies will get guidelines on compliance
  • Is Alvaro alcoholic? No it is not
  • Can dividend be cashed at banks?
  • Give more bonus shares please?
  • Give more dividend to long term shareholders – asked by an old lady who has been a shareholder for 35 years)
  • Can we have cheaper AGM’s? e.g have the meetings at a venue like Kasarani Stadium and serve African foods, not expensive hotel foods that give high blood pressure!

Goodies: T-shirt, Calendar (see above), Safari Park Lunch box [with meat (big chicken slice, cake, beef & cheese sandwich) fruit (banana, apple), drinks (yoghurt, alvaro, water, orange juice)]

Lunch on the controversial calendar

Safaricom 2s

Three weeks after Safaricom’s share price dipped into the 3 shilling range, the share is on the verge of tumbling into the 2/’s [$0.025] – down from the IPO of 5/= and brief high of 8/=.

What are others saying?

Coldtusker points to some deals that can be cut cheaply with NSE shares.

KCIG states that a bear market should be no big deal for serious investors.

Analysts are still producing reports on NSE shares to buy (Access Kenya). What about when to sell?

Everyone’s doing it, so throw more stones at D&B – Dyer & Bair who structured the Safaricom IPO.

Shut down the NSE?: Closing the shares market to salvage what’s left was proposed in Nigeria and now a stockskenya thread has taken it up here as well.

Could be worse: Liquid Trader gives insights on the SA economy that are not easy to decipher by watching CNBC.

Another IPO you say? Co-Op Bank opens tomorrow. No prospectus out yet, but here’s another PDF from the Bank MD.

Looking for work? here’s a great new local Kenya job blog.

Bank Tales II

Maina T kind of started this thread with a review of the P/E correction of Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) shares.

NSE: ½ full or ½ empty? – to take it further, how are NSE shares today compared to last October? If you considered them fairly priced then, you are frowning today, but if you considered them over-valued, are you smiling today?
estimates
– Shares that have appreciated since October 2007: 4% – BAT Scangroup, 3% – Access 3%, 1% – Unga
– Shares that have depreciated since October 2007: (83%) – Mumias (74%) NIC (59%) Nation Media Group, CFC (55%) – Housing Finance, (53%) – Sasini (51%) – Kenya Airways (47%) – Sameer (45%) – Kengen, Centum (44%) – Eveready (43%) – Williamson (42%) – Express, Jubilee (41%) – KPLC, Kenol
– Banking sector: Best (4%) – NBK, worst (-74%) – NIC, sector average is -32%

Interesting that despite the world financial meltdown of late 2008, the Kenyan financial sector is faring no worse than other sectors (agricultural, industrial) which are all down approximately 1/3,and remains the sector most likely to produce super-profits again this year. Best performing sector is commercial services (excluding Safaricom only listed in June 2008) which is down 20% from a year ago

Cheap M&A The depressed NSE prices bring out good and bad banking opportunities.
– Good for anyone speculating on buying into a Kenyan bank. The Helios stake in Equity is priced as almost what it was when the deal was signed, while the CFC/Stanbic merger is worth ½ as much as it was a year ago.
– Bad for the Government who are hoping to raise funds from further sale of NBK and Development Bank of Kenya share. It also raises a question of how Co-op Bank IPO shares will be received i.e. if you enter a train going down hill and you want to go up hill, where will you end up?

Family Bank a recent stockskenya discussion could indicate that a listing of shares could happen soon.

EADB: sad tales on the East African Development Bank.

Bank Tales

(4) The Nairobi Star newspaper reports today that the ravenous Libyans are going to buy Equatorial Commercial Bank from Naushad Merali and other shareholders.

(3) T24 Rules: over a week ago KCB converted to the Temenos T24 banking system with some customers experiencing hitches – and next weekend it will be the turn of CBA to do the same.

(2) (Nairumor II) Minister(s) are itching to get licenses to open their own banks (hopefully not a return to the days of political banks)

(1) ( Nairumor I) that the Co-Operative Bank IPO will not be sold by all stockbrokers. Co-Op bank will do investor registration and most of the processing at their own (52) bank branches, with assistance from only a few brokers. That could be bad & painful news for stockbrokers as the low volumes traded and the depressed NSE this year have meant less than projected commissions & income.