Missing the TED Party

The ongoing TED Conference in California makes me think back to remember TED Global that was held in Arusha, Tanzania in 2007. From the opening talk by Euvin Naidoo President to the last talk President Jakaya Kiwkete this TED conference was a unique event; it was a magical event full of euphoric, optimistic and inspiring moments. Links, networks and friendship were formed and the path was set out to open a new chapter for Africa, through business & investment, with diseases & poverty largely eradicated. Sadly, in 2009, not much has changed in the continent and even some of the shining economic models then like Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, have had politics overshadow and handicap their economic ambitions.

Housekeeping

New tools
– Heard about Twitter in Arusha, but only signed up last month. It’s a bigger world than blogging, and fills in a lot of the gaps e.g. found something unique, but too small to post, or you just want to share in a second via mobile phone? Twitter’s the answer!
– Never has much interest in photography as a blog tool, but got a camera now, so fellow shutterbugs – Hash, Mental, Afromusing, Mweshi – your influence has rubbed off, and I’ll be throwing in random photos of travel and daily work events here are a few

forest near Kericho

I found the Ark

would you steal these hotel sandals?Getting some love
– Bankelele is listed as one of the 100 best blogs to learn about Africa – not sure how the selection was made, but there are some interesting reads on that list 87 Bankelele. Banking and business are at the forefront of this blog written by a Nairobi banker.
– The best way to learn about blogs in other parts of Africa or the non-Western (US, Europe) world is through Global Voices. They have a post that mentions the top-ranked blogs in Africa with Bankelele (ranks 18) from Kenya who writes about baking banking, finance and investment in Kenya and Bongo Celebrity (ranks 20)
– The Business Daily ( a Kenyan financial newspaper) had a feature on blogging with topics like Blog post revolution hits corporate Kenya, Blogs command attention of corporate world, Blogs emerge as avenues for making money, Companies use online platform to monitor views from the public, Fibre optic cable to pave way for corporate blogging, Mounting lawsuits could sound death knell for social sites and What is likely to compete with the mainstream media which noted Some are born out of events like bankelele.com Bankelele, started in 2004 after the blogger attended a “very riotous AGM.” And he describes his blog as “ It’s my diary of financial events —and as a banker and investor. I use it to keep track of pertinent events.

Anyway, I hope to link up with some friends from TED and collaborate on projects in the future and that the Business Daily leads to more corporate blogging opportunities and ideas in this part of Africa.

Profit Warning Friday

KQ Profit warning for Who?
Kenya Airways issued a profit warning a few days after media reports had painted a rather rosy picture of operations at the airline with increased capacity and utilization. (That’s what happens when you release operating results without any shillings or dollar attached.

The fuel price, PEV, and reduced tourism has been well known within the investment community and this did not appear to impact the price until the actual ad and media corrections were carried in the newspaper, perhaps spooking retail investors and the stock is down 22% this week. The operational figures already show that the airline is in turnaround mode and is being hammered when it has already hit the bottom. I need to attend more investor briefings. Neither announcement appeared at the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) website where company quarterly announcements usually run

Profit warning at the NSE
On Thursday, the Capital Markets Authority (regulator) release a brief (copy here ) addressing issues perhaps that should have been said by the NSE. It noted that bear markets do happen (NSE declined 50% between 2000 and 2002), stockbrokers are in trouble (reduced activity, means low turnover and low commission), are restructuring (layoffs and branch closure s), and exposed (risks could arise from fraud. Nevertheless, shares are safe and better left to long-term investors!

We are not rogue this came a day after directors of Suntra Investment Bank, made a similarly candid admission of trouble ”business is so low at the moment that we are actually eating into our own funds” – one of the few times a financial institution has admitted being in difficulty, as they tried to contain damager (a single court case), but which left spooked customers flocking to transfer their shares

Executives on profit

Michael Joseph the CEO of Safaricom, Kenya’s most profitable company, launched an unusual rant against the government and business climate saying the first three things an investor needs in Kenya are (1) a generator (ii) a 4WD car (iii) a security firm – before they can even think about making any investment in Kenya. he said they spend 1.5 million euros on diesel and called the new universal service fund tax stupid as the mobile sector is already over-taxed
A man who sees no losses on the horizon is the CBK governor, who remains an eternal optimist after launching an infrastructure bond. Kenya plans to raise Kshs. 18.5 billion (~$245 million for roads, electricity generation & distribution) from investors who will pay a minimum investment of Kshs. 100,000 or ~$1,250). 12.5% interest will be paid semi-annually with principal repaid 2015, 2017, 2021. He had earlier commented that global meltdown should not have much impact because Kenya is primarily a rural agro-based economy

What else happening?

Kenyan knows Madoff: listed among the hundreds of fabulous fraudster Bernie Madoff’s clients is Sangare Ranch of P O Box 24 Mweiga Kenya Africa
Barclays Uganda counters rumours of a collapse/closure
Global credit rating of South Africa, previous rate triton high credit ratings of Kenyan companies with collapsed oil firm Triton downgraded to DD, Sasini’s ratings maintained at BBB+ (triple B plus) and A2 (single A two) for the long and short term respectively, and Eveready East Africa Limited downgraded to BBB+ (triple B plus) and A2 (single A two) for the long and short term respectively. Moody have downgraded Toyota today, so who’s safe
Fuel shortage was experienced in Nairobi – back and forth between Kenya pipeline company, ministry of energy, oil companies who all absolved themselves for any responsibility; Read more at Coldtusker
Who’s the Total Man at the NSE?
Mumias profit down 73% to 231 million at the half year on sales of 6.2 billion (down 8%)

Insuring the masses

In a quiet month for banks Equity Bank is making some quiet strategic moves for the long term, that may shake up the insurance sector in Kenya.

They have started selling insurance cover to their customers through their wholly owned subsidiary Equity Insurance Agency. Like with the health care package they started selling last year, it is quietly marketed to customers within the banking halls only – no public adverts so far and little mention elsewhere. Customers can sign up for motor vehicle insurance, domestic over, personal accident & travel, medical, and fire & burglary for businesses.

Equity continues a trend of rolling out products that are useful but have low penetration in Kenya like medical insurance and mortgages (they own a ¼ of Housing Finance)

Also they were earlier reported to have acquired an investment banking license from Juanco Investments – a little known company who’s also one of their shareholder.

Sporting Moment: GTV Out

GTV folds
It has been a bleak weekend for Kenyan sports – Gor Mahia lost 0 – 5 to a visiting team from Rwanda, Zimbabwe has now defeated Kenya four matches in a row in Cricket at Mombasa & Nairobi, but most shocking was the sudden shutdown/collapse of GTV – who for the last two years were the main broadcasters of the English soccer premier league in several African countries.

Their statement attributes the collapse to the ongoing global credit crunch, but their demise seems similar to that of Kirch Media who spent big in the late 90’s to acquire the rights to broadcast two World Cup events and also 100 years of formula one races among other media properties – but who folded shop a few years later in one of Germany’s biggest corporate collapses.

What next? I expect Multi-choice DSTV to step in and pay the liquidators of GTV about 30% and take over their broadcast rights in Africa (and perhaps hike their prices too), while in Kenya, a successful bid for GTV’s soccer rights could also be an opportunity for Wananchi’s Zuku to make a nationwide impact.

Business impact in sports
The local impact of the economic crisis is likely to be replicated in sports.

– The local soccer league did well last year (2008) with private interests participating and sponsoring the teams & competitions – there was huge fan interest, media interest (for once local radio stations actively previewed, reviewed and encouraged attendance of local soccer matches) and a private security firm (G4S) was in charge of the ticketing and match revenue collection.

But will the economic crisis affect things? Will sugar teams like Sony and Chemelil continue to support sports when even the only profitable company in the sector (Mumias) has profits down 80% this year? And what about Sher (Flower) and other small company-sponsored teams?

– The local motoring scene was mainly supported by KCB last year and fortunately, despite the bank’s ongoing problems – particularly with a fellow sponsor (Triton), they have agreed to also sponsor the 2009 rally season. However, the loss of Paris Dakar to South America shows the global nature of sports and that events (like the Safari Rally) can be translocated elsewhere if countries don’t pay attention to details of sports management. in 2009, pressure shifts to South Africa to progressively move nearer the completion of stadiums for the 2010 world cup.

– Rugby continues to be well-organized, attract top-notch sponsors, and the annual Safari Sevens is the premier sports event(party) – with Kenya’s Sevens Team off to participate in the IRB Sevens World Series next weekend.

Bad management
Another problem in Kenya is bad management – and while every sport has behind the scenes ramblings and wrangles, Kenya is no exception with motor sports, cricket and soccer feuds that have long been a distraction for the sports.

Also, all sports go through generational changes – and in the off-season, Athletics Kenya management went through elections that were well contested. However, in Kenya we need to have longevity of athletes, not management officials; it is rare to have someone (except for Catherine Ndereba) participate successfully at more than one Olympic event. Other countries stars like Haile Gebreselassie, Hicham El Guerrouj and Kenenisa Bekele have successfully represented their countries at consecutive Olympics – while in Kenya it is sad that it is mainly the officials who show such endurance – and that people who were ‘in charge’ of sports like soccer in the 1980’s and 90’s are still in charge today (Sammy Obingo, Sam Nyamweya) – and continue to bicker and blame each other for the problems in the sport.

Having recently read Foul, FIFA comes across as a corrupt institution that does not care about individual countries attempts to improve management of their sports affairs – FIFA wants to dictate who will be the local managers of soccer, and no matter how bad or corrupt they are, they are FIFA’s people who should not be interfered with unless a country wants to be suspended from regional or international soccer competitions.

EDIT: Feb 4 2009 – South Africa based DSTV SuperSport channel reclaimed the rights to broadcast live all English premier league matches, including those from collapsed GTV in 22 African countries over the next two seasons

Analyzing Kenya Pipeline

Pre-IPO Peek at KPC

Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) is expected to be the next big privatization project to help plug the current Government of Kenya budget deficit. The IPO transaction adviser selection process is already underway for KPC and other state corporations

How much can one glean from audited accounts of the giant company? I got hold of a 2007 annual reports of the company – a rare big glossy booklet that mentions every project e.g. SAP, ISO, fibre optics, refurbishments in Western Kenya, Mombasa, Athi River, with lots of graphs.

KPC still mostly compares itself to other state corporations in terms of goals such as to raise capacity from 440,000 to 880,000 lire per hour by August 2008 – a massive project that later turned controversial and may have cost the last MD (Okungu) his job in January 2009.

Financials
– 2007 revenue of 8.8 billion shillings (~$117 million) (2007 was 8.45 billion and 2003 was 6.5 billion). 2007 Revenue comes from export services (4.3b), local services (3.7b), and 748 million from Kipevu storage fees
– Pre-tax profit of Kshs. 4.3 billion in 2007 (~$53 million)
– Earnings per share was 163 shillings [153 in 2006, 2003 was 29 shillings) – company’s shareholding is made up of 18 million ordinary shares of 20/= par each.
– Dividend paid out of 8.25 per share each year 2007 and 2006
– Cash of 4.5 billion (1.1 billion in 2003) of which 2.5 billion is in Treasury securities (which they only started investing in from 2005)
– Paid 2.2 billion in direct and indirect taxes and was recognized by the Kenya Revenue Authority as a distinguished taxpayer
– Total assets of 20.2 billion shillings (18.7 billion in 2006) – however fuel stocks of 13 billion shillings (384,509 cubic metres) that is owned by marketers is not included in their accounts. [2006 was 36 billion comprising 856,958 cubic metres]
2008 decline: summarized KPC financial accounts show revenue declined by 7% to Kshs. 8.2 billion and pre-tax profit 54% down to Kshs. 2.6 billion in 2008

Auditors: Accounts audited by controller and auditor general, who hired Deloitte & Touche; who said the accounts were ok except to note that 1.2 billion receivables (current assets) include 348 million owed from an unnamed oil company that is the subject for a court case and for which no provisions have been made

Scandals: has been a cash cow for politicians for years with a high turnover of managing directors, manager and directors. Different parts of the report mention Kshs. 967 million pending in lawsuits, 404 million leasehold land unable to develop since it is gazetted forest land, 347 million from Oil Company, 314 million of obsolete spares, and Kshs. 221 million for a finance deal with Triple A that cost the previous MD (Ochuodho) his job. The company also provided Kshs. 382 million of services to National Oil Corp of Kenya (related company as they are both owned by the Government– do they pay all oil marketing fees?

Banking
Bank with NBK, CBA, Stanchart, Co-op. In 2007, they paid off all bank loans (EIB, Stanchart, and CBA) amounting to Kshs. 500 million in 2007, but are still stuck with the 221 million Triple A loan.
– KPC recently signed a syndicated loan of Kshs 8.2 billion with CFC-Stanbic, Barclays, CBA, Citibank, and KCB.

Exports:
– Exports 58% to Uganda, 155 Rwanda, DRC 14% Tanzania 6% Sudan 4% Burundi 3%
– strong shillings bad for export sales
-pricing structure – more expensive at Eldoret and Kisumu means that the company loses revenue if other countries e.g. Rwanda, Uganda remove their oil at Nakuru or Nairobi depots
– 50% of their revenue comes from fuel exports, and With oil being found in Uganda, Sudan, and possibly Congo, is the pipeline capable and adequate to transfer oil from central Africa to the coast at Mombasa?

Others & Non-core activities
– Will Construct an LPG plant with private sector investors (including Kenya pipeline refineries limited, and now-collapsed Triton) in Mombasa at a cost $50 million and one in Athi River at a cost of $13.5 million by Bharat of India
– Other income includes Kshs. 8 million in helicopter income, and also disposed of 120 million worth of helicopters in the year 2007
– 50 million donated to the Ministry of Youth Affairs
– 6 acres worth of land worth 30 million in Nairobi was donated for a street children rehabilitation center
– Spent 114 million in advertising (by a monopoly) and 35 million shillings in legal expenses
– Has shares in the Petroleum Institute of East Africa and Consolidated Bank
– Successfully changed their pension from a defined benefit to a defined contribution scheme

Outlook:
– Slight financial dip in 2008 will probably be attributed to the post-election disruptions
– Capital spending could be significant as they are extending the pipeline to Uganda (Eldoret to Kampala). Also, the company already spends quite a bit in pipeline rehabilitation costs, but won’t a completely new pipeline (though more expensive) be a better solution?
– Needs a stronger management team led by a strong MD – like Kengen’s Eddy Njoroge (someone with a legacy to protect who will shun the wheeler dealers) and a stronger board (not just the Energy ministers’ cronies)
– Could be a good IPO buy i.e. a cash cow pre-tax profit margins of almost 50%

Other Opportunities
– Bank of Africa: branch managers, assistant branch managers, operations assistants’ recruitment@boakenya.com by 5/2
– Consolidated bank credit manager, administration manager, apply to the Head of HR 51133-00200 by 31/1
– Housing Finance senior relationship manager (mortgage finance), portfolio manager, legal officer, human.recources@housing.co.ke
Dyer & Blair sales agents, and for several hundred other weekly jobs visit Kenyan jobs blog.