Kenya Elections 2017 Wrap – Electionske2017

Yesterday, the final results of the August 8, 2017, Kenya elections (electionske2017) were announced by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

This came with the announcement of the presidential results that were delayed by challenges and agreement on the tallying and transmission of the results that were a spillover of lengthy discussions and court cases (the IEBC chairman said they had 200 court cases) on independent candidates, political party petitions, procurement, electronic gadgets, ballot papers, as well as the brutal murder of the IEBC technology manager just a week before the election.

These were the fourth national elections in ten years (2007,2013, 2017 and a constitutional referendum in 2010) and they were closely contested in many places. Besides choosing a new president, 15 million Kenyans also voted on their choice for governor, senator, councillor (MCA), member of parliament (MP), and a county women’s representative from among 14,500 candidates.

But even after the results, there are expectations that dozens of petitions will be filed at the courts on Monday for determination.

Electionske2017 Predictions: 

  • Opinion polls were reported in Kenya. They have been widely derided for not accurately predicting the outcome of races and for contradicting each other. This could be due to misunderstandings by Kenyans about what polls mean, and sampling methods used, especially in rural Kenya.
  • Elsewhere, Charles Hornsby,  author of the classic must-read Kenya: A History Since Independence -did a series of election prediction posts in June and early in August that were based on his September 2016 prediction of a 55-45 victory for Kenyatta over the (yet to be chosen at that time) opposition candidate remains plausible. He later revised this; I still predict a Jubilee victory by 52% for Kenyatta and Ruto to 48% for Odinga and Musyoka, with all others less than 1% combined.
  • Another was a research report by Citibank (Citi) published in early August:  On Thursday we hosted a call with Richard Kiplagat, COO of AfricaPractice, to talk through political scenarios. Mr. Kiplagat takes the view that 1) the polls are very close but give a slight edge to the President; 2) the victor is likely to win outright in the first round, given limited support for third party candidates; 3) while the outcome may be disputed initially, the Supreme Court is likely to certify the outcome by September 10th, a judgment that could well be accepted by the loser; 4) widespread or prolonged violence is unlikely this time around, due in part to devolution of the 2010 constitution and in part to the ethnic balance of the incumbent presidential/vice presidential ticket.

What happens next?

For President: The date of the swearing-in of the president constitutionally depends on if there are any petitions

  • Petitions are filed within 7 days after the declaration of results
  • If a petition is filed, the Supreme Court hears and gives a determination within 14 days
  • The President-elect is sworn in the first Tuesday following the 14th day if no petition has been filed or the 7th day following the date on which the court renders a decision

For Governors’ transition rules

For Members of Parliament: The 12th parliament i.e the national assembly and the senate are to have their first sitting, not more than thirty days after the elections (tentatively not later than September 8, 2017).

Also, see other electionske2017 posts about: