Category Archives: Safaricom IPO

Safaricom IPO Allocation Part II

From a discussion in the skunkworks group forums: Taking up on concerns about e-government in the IPO application process, the same site now offers investors tracking their applications a chance to check how many shares they will get. (I checked and for retail investors, like me, the 22% application appears to be in order)

However the skunkworks group users raised concerns that anyone (not just applicants) could tweak ID and CDS numbers and look up other people’s applications – and beyond that – box numbers, phone numbers, e-mail, amounts applied for, where their refunds will go, etc.

update 1 [SITE TAKEN DOWN NOW – 5PM NAIROBI TIME]

update 2 CHECK BALANCES VIA PHONE SMS
There was an advert in the Saturday (7/6) newspapers, advising investors to confirm their allocations via mobile phone SMS; send an SMS with CDS and ID numbers ( “CDS___*ID ____*”)to 2732 on Safaricom or Celtel [cost is Kshs. 10 per message] I tried but got an error message, i.e one of my numbers was wrong!

Update 3 CHECK BALANCES VIA PHONE SMS
There was an advert in the Sunday (8/6) newspapers, advising investors to confirm their allocations via mobile phone SMS; send an SMS with CDS and ID numbers ( “CDS___*ID ____*”)to 4009 on Safaricom or Celtel [cost is free/unknown] I tried and got an answer SIX HOURS later, same balance as the e-mail – 22%

Kutwa Tuesday – Post Madaraka Day

a day late, most from the daily papers

banking:
Refund dilemma: What should banks do with Safaricom refunds of 80%? Wisest would be to take the money and accept refunds from disappointed shareholders to pre-pay their loans. It would not be wise to refuse to accept money and insist that borrowers serve their loan durations– as idle money has many employers. The middle ground would be to facilitate investors to buy more safcom or other shares, but that’s a new risk area in investment banking. Ideally there should be loans for secondary market purchases or margin trading.
Next I-bank Equity Bank to set up an investment banking subsidiary (from Ocean Newsletter)
New note Kenya needs a new bank note – denomination 3,000 or 5,000 shillings soon.

NSE talking points:
Fuel hedging?: Despite the reduced flights, its’ amazing that Kenya Airways actually reduced its fuel bill in 2008 (albeit just 1.6%) – this is at a time when other airlines are going bankrupt because of high fuel costs. Can they do it again in ’09 without having to resort to radical fuel saving measures?
– Total Oil interested in Caltex and will compete against the government for the stations
– Government and NSSF to opt out of Housing Finance rights issue
– Fresh off a profit warning, the Sameer Africa boss out; is this the reason the reason ?
– Undugu? Nation reporters in Tz still not comfortable
– The City of Nairobi is now Safaricom broadband hotspot who are selling postpaid hotspot bundles.
Equipment is a broadband modem for 6,000 ($98) and a broadband router for 35,000 ($570) shillings. Service options offered include – up to 700MB for 2,000 ($33), up to 2GB for 4,000, 5GB for 7,000, 8GB for 10,000, and up to 30GB for 30,000 ($491) , but weak customer care remains an Achilles heel for new Safaricom products

Parastatals
Refinery Coalition Libyan and India to share equaly/ (happily?) in the Kenya Oil Refinery in Mombasa
– The Agriculture Finance Corporation (AFC) asks farmers to continue paying their loans since most of them were not affected by post-election violence
– East African Portland cement to start paying all supplier invoices by electronic financial transactions (EFT)
– Kenya Railways selling land in makupa (7 acres), kibarani (9), embakasi (10) and a building in headquarters (D/L 27/6)
– Kenya Ports Authority to set up an inland container depot (dry port) at Eldoret (seeking bidder to lease operate by 20/6)
– Kenya Re say their will put up a transit hotel at JKIA (was in their 2006 prospectus)
– The City council of Nairobi seeks land to for a new cemetery
Education: Makerere University (Ug) to offer courses in renewable energy

Safaricom IPO allocation

20% retail

30% corporate

temporary post

IPO daylight

IPO hangover: Went to visit stockbroker today in an unsuccessful search for the elusive Housing Finance prospectus – and instead found several notices on the wall:

no mas they have suspended opening new CDS or receiving transfers from other stockbrokers for a month to 30/6( until they sort out their applications post-Safaricom IPO applications)
investor awareness they advise how investors can watch rogue trades in their accounts and how to report them including getting correct address in the system. They also assure customers they are with a solid stockbroking firm that has over 40 billion shillings in assets
cost increases – nominee accounts will now attract quarterly fee and transaction fees over and above commissions costs
1/2 way to DRIP: they will no longer en-cash dividend cheques, but they can be endorsed towards new purchases of shares.

Oil and manufacturing: Looking at the price warning from Sameer Africa, makes one wonder about the impact that the escalating price of oil will have on manufacturing based company shares (e.g. cement is up about 40%) – and whether it is wiser to invest in ‘service’ companies like Safaricom whose impact from oil prices will less direct (share of wallet)

Full year results
– Safaricom revenue to 61.4 billion [$990 million] (up 29%)
– Safaricom pre tax profit 19.9 billion [$321 million] (up 16%)

Petro Politics & Policy: Reading Thomas Freidman’s columns can scare any one cares about the future of America, foreign policy relations and other manufacturing industries.

Writing recently, he notes:

– The failure of Mr. Bush to fully mobilize the most powerful innovation engine in the world — the U.S. economy — to produce a scalable alternative to oil has helped to fuel the rise of a collection of petro-authoritarian states — from Russia to Venezuela to Iran — that are reshaping global politics in their own image.
– If this huge transfer of wealth to the petro-authoritarians continues, power will follow. According to Congressional testimony Wednesday by the energy expert Gal Luft, with oil at $200 a barrel, OPEC could “potentially buy Bank of America in one month worth of production, Apple computers in a week and General Motors in just three days.”
– America has taken its many natural assets — its research universities, free markets and diversity of human talent — and assumed that they will always compensate for our low savings rate or absence of a health care system or any strategic plan to improve our competitiveness.
– “Call it the triple deficit,” said Mr. Rothkopf. “A fiscal deficit that will soon have us choosing between rationed health care, sufficient education, adequate infrastructure and traditional levels of defense spending, a trade deficit that has us borrowing from our rivals to the point of real vulnerability, and a geopolitical deficit that is a legacy of Iraq, which may result in hesitancy to take strong stands where we must.”

Share Portfolio: May 2008

treading water, pre-Safaricom

The Stable

Diamond Trust
Express
KCB
Scangroup
Sameer
Stanbic (UG)
Safaricom (?)
Total

What’s changed?
In: Safaricom
Out: ICDCI (Centum)
Increase: none
Lightened: KCB
Dividends expected: Diamond trust, KCB, Express, Total, Scangroup, Stanbic
Unexpected gains/losses: none
Best Performer: Stanbic (Ug), then Scangroup
Worst Performer: Express

Looking forward to: Increasing Safaricom holdings after the expected ⅓ IPO allocation, then Kenya Pipeline, Co-Op Bank (though their service is poor) and whatever other IPO comes along.

Performance Summary: The Motley Fool advises that investors should beat the share index to consider their returns a success. The NSE 20 share index is where it was six months ago: 5,153 (-0.08%), while I’m down 0.44% even after taking some cash out (chucking Centum) to meet unexpected January/February 08 payments and am still waiting for all the afore-mentioned 2007 dividends half way into the year.

Earlier portfolio summaries: – ½ a year ago November 2007 and a year ago.