Category Archives: pension schemes

Reading the Barclays Tea Leaves

Barclays Kenya just published their 2008 annual report; what does some interesting points about the banking sector.


Barclays Peek
– Is the second largest bank in Kenya behind KCB, but still tops in profit – with Kshs 8 billion ($100 million) before tax. Has 126 billion ($1.58 billion) in deposits, loans of 108 billion ($1.35 billion) and total assets of 168.5 billion shillings. It would probably reclaim the number one status from KCB, but KCB shareholders will next month absorb the assets of S&L, their mortgage subsidiary
Shariah Banking Barclays launched La Riba in 2008 – and in 2008 they managed to mobilize over 2 billion in new la riba deposits to stand at 3.3 billion ($41 million) at end of year, but gave out just 19 million in loans
Customers They have a popular Business club – with over 10,000 members some of whom were flown to Dubai, China and Holland. Barclays had 930,000 customers in 2008 (2007 was 580,000) – compared to Equity Bank’s 3.3 million customers, and 60,917 shareholder 60, 917 (up from 58,945 in 07)
Staff cutback? Employees in 2008 reduced by 16% – as group had 5,571 at December 08 compared to 6,900 in December 07. In 06 they had 2,197 (but it appears in 2008, they shed the part time staff whose numbers reduced from 4115 to 1698)
No thanks Agriculture. Agriculture is referred to as the backbone of Kenya’s economy7, but Barclays estimate their exposure to the sector to be just 1% of loans. Private industries account for 44%, with 10% each to manufacturing and to transport & communications sectors.
Asset finance reduced?? Assets under financial lease decreased slightly – still at 6.1 billion
Gloabl crisis / External Impact? a 1% or decrease in interest rates would impact profit about 5%, but there’s no impact from strength/weakness of Kenya shilling (bank only does business in Kenya)
– Directors: the three directors who were appointed at previous times are up for re-election on May 15; Brown Ondengo (2003), Jane karuku (2003), and Paul Phemngorem (1998). Barclays (UK) parent, with 68.5% of the vote, will pretty much determine who will remain or leave the board. No other shareholder has more than 1%, with the next largest being Kenya’s national social security fund (NSSF) with 2%
Cheaper to borrow overseas than the NSE: The bank received subordinated debt in the form of a tranche of NSE listed bonds of 2 billion shillings (3,078b) repayable over 5 years – at 10.36%. They also borrowed 1.25 billion from their Barclays parent; BBK in the form of a 10 year loan at just 2.39%
Pension Funds gloomy outlook The Barclays staff pension scheme with 44% equity investments was down 13% in value (to Kshs 7 billion), compared to a gain of 6% in 07

Kutwa Tuesday: From Stanchart to LPG

stories found this week

Stanchart Bank:

Smaller profit – Standard Chartered is being much maligned for being the first bank to report a profit drop in 2008 of 4% to 4.7 billion shillings. ($59 million) (Increased 29% in 07). The bank which adopted a conservative approach compared to Barclays, KCB and Equity. Stanchart had asset growth of 9% to 99 billion (13% in 07), deposits up 4% to 77 billion and loans up 10% to 43 billion in 2008. Still their shareholders will get the highest dividend of any listed bank in 2008.

Here are some other performance comparisons of the main banks that have so far reported their 2008 results.

Goes for smaller customers – In a slight about turn, Stanchart has also launched a new low cost transactional account called Hifadhi, costs 2,000 to open, no ledger fees, or ‘cash handling fees’ with e-statements you only pay for transactions you incur, though its’ not as affordable as other ‘cheap’ bank accounts for small earners. Going for smaller customer has been a recurrent theme in 2008 with banks, insurance and investment companies lowering the minimum subscription amount. Examples are pepea from Barclays, Toboa from Old Mutual and even the Government of Kenya which lowered the minimum investment for GoK treasury bonds to just Kshs. 50,000 (~$625)

Bank briefs
– Stanchart get back to what they are good at – big corporate deals this one for Kengen
– Gulf African launches a shariah compliant mortgage scheme
– New bank branches: First Community bank now in Malindi, Ecobank in Kisii, while Family Bank re-opened in Githurai
– Another SMS sends Equity customers into bank panic withdrawals this time in Machakos.

From the blogs

Siasa mbaya, maisha mbaya: Global economic slump aside, Nairobi’s Stock Exchange will not see a bull run until the country’s political problems are sorted out according to MainaT

The Sunday Nation broke a story of the old Embakasi airport been handed over to an unlicensed new airline, but airport analysis comes from one Coldtusker

Following in the success of the infrastructure bond (over-subscribed by 45%), the Kenya Government is offering another bond to supplement its budget deficit; this one is for 8.5 billion ($106 million). More details from Conceptadvisoryservices and the minimum investment is just 50,000 ($625).

Kenya Rugby Effects: Kenya had a wonderful run at the IRB World Cup in Dubai, and knocked out defending champions Fiji in the quarter finals. Here’s some rugby loss reactionfrom Fiji.

Elsewhere

Employees lose & lose – it’s been a bad week for employees as the Employment Act was set aside and the government shifted more of the pension burden to civil servants to contribute towards their own retirement funds.

Madaraka finalized – Madaraka Estate houses were finally sold, apparently ending a long long running saga between homeowners, the City Council and the National Housing Corporation who should really update their website.

Laptop maniaso many offers for laptops these days, new this week were
Safaricom selling Macbook with broadband modem for 100,000 ($1,250)
– Acer A110 laptop on sale with open office for $230 – great for Kenyans new to mini laptop market
– Even my bank/broker (CFC) hawks Acer Aspire 4710 and has loans that work out to 5,500 ($70) per month

Is Grad School a Con? – Half the Sunday Nation advertisements were for colleges aiming at the recent high school graduates whose results were announced last week. Also growing are the numbers of universities and master programs, but this article argues against going to grad school to avoid the recession with the author pointing out that;

– Grad school pointlessly delays adulthood.
– PhD programs are pyramid schemes
– Business school is not going to help 90% of the people who go.
– Most jobs are better than they seem: You can learn from any job.
– Graduate school forces you to overinvest: It’s too high risk.
(found at chris blattman)

LPG Shocker – when to buy cooking gas last night. Found the cylinder, however it appears that there is now a valve that will be mandatory on all cylinders from April 2009 – it is a universal valve, that will enable consumers to buy LPG /cooking gas from any supplier e.g. Kenol., Total, NOCK – replacing cylinders from any of them, since they will now have a common head/valve. The move is supposed to break the monopoly of established companies e.g. if you had a Kenol gas cylinder, you could only replace it at Kenol when buying new gas, whereas if you wanted to switch to Shell gas, you’d have to buy a brand new cylinder.


new gas cap

The problem was that many Total stations did not have the valve. (I checked at three stations) and they all sent me to the place that has everything in Kenya – Nakumatt. Nakumatt also say they stock valves for all companies, but only had the generic caps to sell. It’s scary to use a generic caps, since there are many fires in Kenya caused by exploding/leaking cooking gas cylinders. Hope this turns out ok when April comes around and more consumers realize they have to buy caps which cost anywhere from 500 ($6.25) to 900 shillings each, another cost to the burdened urban consumer. It would also be nice if oil companies and/or the Government conducted some consumer awareness about this matter, not leaving it to Nakumatt and untrained Petrol attendants.

NSSF: Apples & Oranges

Kenya’s National Social Security Fund finally released their year-end results in the newspapers today after many years of pressure from governance experts and regulators. The scheme hopes to convert into a pension fund and states that it plans to hold an AGM soon

While the statements show improved performance over the last four years (NSSF-K was abused in the 1990’s and forced into bad property investments and lost billions in collapsed banks), how does it compare with NSSF Uganda who released their results last week?

an approximate conversion to US$

Buildings/property/land
NSSFK $434 million (35%)
NSSFU $76 million (13%)

Government Securities
NSSFK $115 million (9%)
NSSFU $289 million (51%)

Equities
NSSF Uganda lists their holdings – as Uganda Clays, Baroda, Nsimbe, DFCU, Stanbic, Serena, HFCU, Victoria properties. The Kenyan one does not list but the portfolio would include Unilever Tea, Nation media group, HFCK (11%) KCB (8%) British American Tobacco (20%) East African Breweries (8%), EAP cement (27%), and National Bank (48%)
NSSFK $618 million
NSSFU $54 million

Current assets
NSSFK $50 million
NSSFU $350 million

Current Liabilities
NSSFK $20 million
NSSFU $11 million

Members Funds
NSSFK $1,240 million
NSSFU $548 million

Totals assets
NSSFK $1,240 million
NSSFU $564 million

Income:
NSSFK $61 million
NSSFU $38 million
However, the Kenyan one include changes in the market value of shares in last year, adding another $80m to bring total income to $141m

Costs
NSSFK $41 million
NSSFU $7 million

Net Gain/Profit
NSSFK $147 million
NSSFU $31 million

Earlier:

  • Under its current format, the ultimate payout will be low from NSSF(K) and the benefits at retirement will not be enough to sustain a majority of retirees.
  • Comparison between Stanbic Kenya and Stanbic Uganda.

Easter weekend

No trades
I realized that I had not been to my stockbroker’s office to trade this year. It would be good to visit to find out the fate of my Stanbic shares. I’m not sure if I got a full allocation or a refund since I have not got any report from the broker. This week would be a good time to visit before the lines begin for the Access Kenya IPO which starts next week.

Access Kenya IPO
Access Kenya announced that their IPO will begin on April 19th. The company hopes to sell 80 million shares at 10 shillings ($0.14) each to raise 800 million shillings ($11.4m). I look forward to the prospectus to be released within the next few days to give a proper picture of the communications market. And we are also awaiting an IPO from Wananchi, Kenya’s largest ISP who unfortunately lost a bid for Africa Online to Telkom of South Africa.

The ISP industry has shown tremendous growth, but the sector faces additional challenges for investors.

  • First like the Scangroup IPO, intangible measures take on greater significance in comparing the company against its peers and its future prospects.
  • Second, an additional regulator comes into play i.e. the Communications Commission of Kenya. The sector has seen some turbulent investments that have not reached fruition including the third mobile operator (Econet in court for three years) and the second national operator (license has been awarded and canceled twice). Also CCK will in future move towards giving unified licenses, which means that companies won’t have to go back to re-apply each time they want to introduce a new service.
  • Third in a unified license world, and once a restructured Telkom has been sorted out, Safaricom and Celtel may be the ISP companies of the future with their EDGE / GPRS offerings. (ISP’s are already complaining about mobile companies not playing fair with interconnection, leading back to the regulator again).

Corporate divorce
Alexander Forbes of SA has withdrawn its name from Alexander Forbes insurance brokers of Kenya citing a lack of majority equity or management control. The Kenyan operation (formerly Hyman Robertson) who already have a new name ready to launch, feel that they have been good custodians of the brand, turning it around from loss-making one to being one of the largest in East Africa.

Fading libraries?
Read in the Sunday Standard that the British Council was closing their library in Mombasa owing to declining memberships.

No more Golden handshakes

Chris Rock used to joke that Black people should get their pensions at age 30 because they have a lower life expectancy than Whites and never live to retire at age 55.

The new Retirement Benefits Act was the talk of the town last week as it had some stunning revelations. It was revealed that retirees would not get most of their pension until they turn 55 – they can only access what they contributed, which is in many cases only a fraction of the employer’s contribution.

It was shocking that this decision was made as there are about to be a number of retrenchment packages e.g. at Kenya Railways, Telkom and Kenya Ports Authority. Previously retrenched employees walked away with some nice payments packages – golden handshakes – and invested in restaurants, buildings, matatus or other businesses (and of course, others drank/wasted the money away)