Category Archives: oil industry

Total 2009 AGM

The 55th annual general meeting of Total Kenya was held on May 19 2009 at KICC and was presided over by company Chairman Herve Allibert
Easy registration took a minute. Total have introduced an electronic check-in, shareholders or their proxies show up with a bar code, which is scanned and they as they sign in

Q&A

Erroneous publication: company secretary apologized for some omitting list of top shareholders and wrong agenda contained in the annual report; saying the printer gave out wrong copy.

Buyout of Chevron assets: in 2007 Chevron decided has divested from petrol stations in west and east Africa and Total is buying their stations in Kenya and Uganda. The chairman clarified that parent Total Group (pronounced Tota hutra -meh) is buying the assets and deal will be finalized in June 2009. Thereafter Total Kenya (78% owned by Total Group) will buy the assets from the Total Group. Total Kenya has obtained regulatory approvals in Kenya, is arranging financing for that deal, and the directors will call for a shareholders meeting in a few months to approve that deal.
In answering another shareholder, Chairman added that Total Group is not divesting from Africa; they know how to do business in Africa, work well here and will continue to invest here

Performance drop in fourth quarter: board member answered shareholder that it was true that Q4 performance was worse. He said it was a s a result of negative stock effect (oil bought at $140+ that was sold at lower prices), and company had to make provision of Kshs 171 million for a supplier (Triton?) who was paid, but failed to deliver products to the company. He added that Q1 of 09 was much improved as the company had received a payment of 150 million in refunds from the Kenya revenue authority (KRA), a feat, which the Chairman added, was very difficult to attain.

Increase in borrowing costs: this had gone up because of the price of fuel was up, while they also had to pay upfront for all taxes

Bio energy: the group does research and investment for that and deploys products such as bio-diesel now sold in Ethiopia

No women directors Chairman said company was aware of this mis-match. They were continuously seeking some women to join the board and also plan to have more women in all management levels of the company

Hot point I – Total’s Q&A format; instead of having shareholders stand and ask questions, Total have (for some years now) had shareholders write their questions down on notes which are then handed to the board table and the company secretary selects a few which to read. The directors were today accused of ignoring some questions, not answering other key questions properly (about the flat share price and lack of bonus shares), while altogether leaving shareholders and some directors in the dark . The Chairman said they would review the practice before next meeting. Another aspect of the meeting (the French Chairman called it a “general assembly” ) that was challenged was the time of the meeting 3 PM

Hot Point II – Goodies:
– Total still doesn’t get it; they always have buffet of meat bitings , today by San Valencia that is messy to serve with shareholders jostling to get some food before it’s finished. They should just serve lunch boxes.

– each shareholder got a tote bag, t-shirt and an umbrella. Some shareholders complained that they had not got their gift items (but somehow other shareholder had 3 or 4 umbrellas) – and the company secretary was asked to record their names and see if the company could have them delivered after the meeting
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situs gacor

Kutwa Tuesday: From Stanchart to LPG

stories found this week

Stanchart Bank:

Smaller profit – Standard Chartered is being much maligned for being the first bank to report a profit drop in 2008 of 4% to 4.7 billion shillings. ($59 million) (Increased 29% in 07). The bank which adopted a conservative approach compared to Barclays, KCB and Equity. Stanchart had asset growth of 9% to 99 billion (13% in 07), deposits up 4% to 77 billion and loans up 10% to 43 billion in 2008. Still their shareholders will get the highest dividend of any listed bank in 2008.

Here are some other performance comparisons of the main banks that have so far reported their 2008 results.

Goes for smaller customers – In a slight about turn, Stanchart has also launched a new low cost transactional account called Hifadhi, costs 2,000 to open, no ledger fees, or ‘cash handling fees’ with e-statements you only pay for transactions you incur, though its’ not as affordable as other ‘cheap’ bank accounts for small earners. Going for smaller customer has been a recurrent theme in 2008 with banks, insurance and investment companies lowering the minimum subscription amount. Examples are pepea from Barclays, Toboa from Old Mutual and even the Government of Kenya which lowered the minimum investment for GoK treasury bonds to just Kshs. 50,000 (~$625)

Bank briefs
– Stanchart get back to what they are good at – big corporate deals this one for Kengen
– Gulf African launches a shariah compliant mortgage scheme
– New bank branches: First Community bank now in Malindi, Ecobank in Kisii, while Family Bank re-opened in Githurai
– Another SMS sends Equity customers into bank panic withdrawals this time in Machakos.

From the blogs

Siasa mbaya, maisha mbaya: Global economic slump aside, Nairobi’s Stock Exchange will not see a bull run until the country’s political problems are sorted out according to MainaT

The Sunday Nation broke a story of the old Embakasi airport been handed over to an unlicensed new airline, but airport analysis comes from one Coldtusker

Following in the success of the infrastructure bond (over-subscribed by 45%), the Kenya Government is offering another bond to supplement its budget deficit; this one is for 8.5 billion ($106 million). More details from Conceptadvisoryservices and the minimum investment is just 50,000 ($625).

Kenya Rugby Effects: Kenya had a wonderful run at the IRB World Cup in Dubai, and knocked out defending champions Fiji in the quarter finals. Here’s some rugby loss reactionfrom Fiji.

Elsewhere

Employees lose & lose – it’s been a bad week for employees as the Employment Act was set aside and the government shifted more of the pension burden to civil servants to contribute towards their own retirement funds.

Madaraka finalized – Madaraka Estate houses were finally sold, apparently ending a long long running saga between homeowners, the City Council and the National Housing Corporation who should really update their website.

Laptop mania – so many offers for laptops these days, new this week were
– Safaricom selling Macbook with broadband modem for 100,000 ($1,250)
– Acer A110 laptop on sale with open office for $230 – great for Kenyans new to mini laptop market
– Even my bank/broker (CFC) hawks Acer Aspire 4710 and has loans that work out to 5,500 ($70) per month

Is Grad School a Con? – Half the Sunday Nation advertisements were for colleges aiming at the recent high school graduates whose results were announced last week. Also growing are the numbers of universities and master programs, but this article argues against going to grad school to avoid the recession with the author pointing out that;

– Grad school pointlessly delays adulthood.
– PhD programs are pyramid schemes
– Business school is not going to help 90% of the people who go.
– Most jobs are better than they seem: You can learn from any job.
– Graduate school forces you to overinvest: It’s too high risk.
(found at chris blattman)

LPG Shocker – when to buy cooking gas last night. Found the cylinder, however it appears that there is now a valve that will be mandatory on all cylinders from April 2009 – it is a universal valve, that will enable consumers to buy LPG /cooking gas from any supplier e.g. Kenol., Total, NOCK – replacing cylinders from any of them, since they will now have a common head/valve. The move is supposed to break the monopoly of established companies e.g. if you had a Kenol gas cylinder, you could only replace it at Kenol when buying new gas, whereas if you wanted to switch to Shell gas, you’d have to buy a brand new cylinder.


new gas cap

The problem was that many Total stations did not have the valve. (I checked at three stations) and they all sent me to the place that has everything in Kenya – Nakumatt. Nakumatt also say they stock valves for all companies, but only had the generic caps to sell. It’s scary to use a generic caps, since there are many fires in Kenya caused by exploding/leaking cooking gas cylinders. Hope this turns out ok when April comes around and more consumers realize they have to buy caps which cost anywhere from 500 ($6.25) to 900 shillings each, another cost to the burdened urban consumer. It would also be nice if oil companies and/or the Government conducted some consumer awareness about this matter, not leaving it to Nakumatt and untrained Petrol attendants.

Profit Warning Friday

KQ Profit warning for Who?
Kenya Airways issued a profit warning a few days after media reports had painted a rather rosy picture of operations at the airline with increased capacity and utilization. (That’s what happens when you release operating results without any shillings or dollar attached.

The fuel price, PEV, and reduced tourism has been well known within the investment community and this did not appear to impact the price until the actual ad and media corrections were carried in the newspaper, perhaps spooking retail investors and the stock is down 22% this week. The operational figures already show that the airline is in turnaround mode and is being hammered when it has already hit the bottom. I need to attend more investor briefings. Neither announcement appeared at the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) website where company quarterly announcements usually run

Profit warning at the NSE
On Thursday, the Capital Markets Authority (regulator) release a brief (copy here ) addressing issues perhaps that should have been said by the NSE. It noted that bear markets do happen (NSE declined 50% between 2000 and 2002), stockbrokers are in trouble (reduced activity, means low turnover and low commission), are restructuring (layoffs and branch closure s), and exposed (risks could arise from fraud. Nevertheless, shares are safe and better left to long-term investors!

We are not rogue this came a day after directors of Suntra Investment Bank, made a similarly candid admission of trouble ”business is so low at the moment that we are actually eating into our own funds” – one of the few times a financial institution has admitted being in difficulty, as they tried to contain damager (a single court case), but which left spooked customers flocking to transfer their shares

Executives on profit

  • Michael Joseph the CEO of Safaricom, Kenya’s most profitable company, launched an unusual rant against the government and business climate saying the first three things an investor needs in Kenya are (1) a generator (ii) a 4WD car (iii) a security firm – before they can even think about making any investment in Kenya. he said they spend 1.5 million euros on diesel and called the new universal service fund tax stupid as the mobile sector is already over-taxed
  • A man who sees no losses on the horizon is the CBK governor, who remains an eternal optimist after launching an infrastructure bond. Kenya plans to raise Kshs. 18.5 billion (~$245 million for roads, electricity generation & distribution) from investors who will pay a minimum investment of Kshs. 100,000 or ~$1,250). 12.5% interest will be paid semi-annually with principal repaid 2015, 2017, 2021. He had earlier commented that global meltdown should not have much impact because Kenya is primarily a rural agro-based economy

What else happening?

  • Kenyan knows Madoff: listed among the hundreds of fabulous fraudster Bernie Madoff’s clients is Sangare Ranch of P O Box 24 Mweiga Kenya Africa
  • Barclays Uganda counters rumours of a collapse/closure
  • Global credit rating of South Africa, previous rate triton high credit ratings of Kenyan companies with collapsed oil firm Triton downgraded to DD, Sasini’s ratings maintained at BBB+ (triple B plus) and A2 (single A two) for the long and short term respectively, and Eveready East Africa Limited downgraded to BBB+ (triple B plus) and A2 (single A two) for the long and short term respectively. Moody have downgraded Toyota today, so who’s safe
  • Fuel shortage was experienced in Nairobi – back and forth between Kenya pipeline company, ministry of energy, oil companies who all absolved themselves for any responsibility; Read more at Coldtusker
  • Who’s the Total Man at the NSE?
  • Mumias profit down 73% to 231 million at the half year on sales of 6.2 billion (down 8%)

Analyzing Kenya Pipeline

Pre-IPO Peek at KPC

Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) is expected to be the next big privatization project to help plug the current Government of Kenya budget deficit. The IPO transaction adviser selection process is already underway for KPC and other state corporations

How much can one glean from audited accounts of the giant company? I got hold of a 2007 annual reports of the company – a rare big glossy booklet that mentions every project e.g. SAP, ISO, fibre optics, refurbishments in Western Kenya, Mombasa, Athi River, with lots of graphs.

KPC still mostly compares itself to other state corporations in terms of goals such as to raise capacity from 440,000 to 880,000 lire per hour by August 2008 – a massive project that later turned controversial and may have cost the last MD (Okungu) his job in January 2009.

Financials
– 2007 revenue of 8.8 billion shillings (~$117 million) (2007 was 8.45 billion and 2003 was 6.5 billion). 2007 Revenue comes from export services (4.3b), local services (3.7b), and 748 million from Kipevu storage fees
– Pre-tax profit of Kshs. 4.3 billion in 2007 (~$53 million)
– Earnings per share was 163 shillings [153 in 2006, 2003 was 29 shillings) – company’s shareholding is made up of 18 million ordinary shares of 20/= par each.
– Dividend paid out of 8.25 per share each year 2007 and 2006
– Cash of 4.5 billion (1.1 billion in 2003) of which 2.5 billion is in Treasury securities (which they only started investing in from 2005)
– Paid 2.2 billion in direct and indirect taxes and was recognized by the Kenya Revenue Authority as a distinguished taxpayer
– Total assets of 20.2 billion shillings (18.7 billion in 2006) – however fuel stocks of 13 billion shillings (384,509 cubic metres) that is owned by marketers is not included in their accounts. [2006 was 36 billion comprising 856,958 cubic metres]
2008 decline: summarized KPC financial accounts show revenue declined by 7% to Kshs. 8.2 billion and pre-tax profit 54% down to Kshs. 2.6 billion in 2008

Auditors: Accounts audited by controller and auditor general, who hired Deloitte & Touche; who said the accounts were ok except to note that 1.2 billion receivables (current assets) include 348 million owed from an unnamed oil company that is the subject for a court case and for which no provisions have been made

Scandals: has been a cash cow for politicians for years with a high turnover of managing directors, manager and directors. Different parts of the report mention Kshs. 967 million pending in lawsuits, 404 million leasehold land unable to develop since it is gazetted forest land, 347 million from Oil Company, 314 million of obsolete spares, and Kshs. 221 million for a finance deal with Triple A that cost the previous MD (Ochuodho) his job. The company also provided Kshs. 382 million of services to National Oil Corp of Kenya (related company as they are both owned by the Government– do they pay all oil marketing fees?

Banking
Bank with NBK, CBA, Stanchart, Co-op. In 2007, they paid off all bank loans (EIB, Stanchart, and CBA) amounting to Kshs. 500 million in 2007, but are still stuck with the 221 million Triple A loan.
– KPC recently signed a syndicated loan of Kshs 8.2 billion with CFC-Stanbic, Barclays, CBA, Citibank, and KCB.

Exports:
– Exports 58% to Uganda, 155 Rwanda, DRC 14% Tanzania 6% Sudan 4% Burundi 3%
– strong shillings bad for export sales
-pricing structure – more expensive at Eldoret and Kisumu means that the company loses revenue if other countries e.g. Rwanda, Uganda remove their oil at Nakuru or Nairobi depots
– 50% of their revenue comes from fuel exports, and With oil being found in Uganda, Sudan, and possibly Congo, is the pipeline capable and adequate to transfer oil from central Africa to the coast at Mombasa?

Others & Non-core activities
– Will Construct an LPG plant with private sector investors (including Kenya pipeline refineries limited, and now-collapsed Triton) in Mombasa at a cost $50 million and one in Athi River at a cost of $13.5 million by Bharat of India
– Other income includes Kshs. 8 million in helicopter income, and also disposed of 120 million worth of helicopters in the year 2007
– 50 million donated to the Ministry of Youth Affairs
– 6 acres worth of land worth 30 million in Nairobi was donated for a street children rehabilitation center
– Spent 114 million in advertising (by a monopoly) and 35 million shillings in legal expenses
– Has shares in the Petroleum Institute of East Africa and Consolidated Bank
– Successfully changed their pension from a defined benefit to a defined contribution scheme

Outlook:
– Slight financial dip in 2008 will probably be attributed to the post-election disruptions
– Capital spending could be significant as they are extending the pipeline to Uganda (Eldoret to Kampala). Also, the company already spends quite a bit in pipeline rehabilitation costs, but won’t a completely new pipeline (though more expensive) be a better solution?
– Needs a stronger management team led by a strong MD – like Kengen’s Eddy Njoroge (someone with a legacy to protect who will shun the wheeler dealers) and a stronger board (not just the Energy ministers’ cronies)
– Could be a good IPO buy i.e. a cash cow pre-tax profit margins of almost 50%

Other Opportunities
– Bank of Africa: branch managers, assistant branch managers, operations assistants’ recruitment@boakenya.com by 5/2
– Consolidated bank credit manager, administration manager, apply to the Head of HR 51133-00200 by 31/1
– Housing Finance senior relationship manager (mortgage finance), portfolio manager, legal officer, human.recources@housing.co.ke
Dyer & Blair sales agents, and for several hundred other weekly jobs visit Kenyan jobs blog.

Kutwa Tuesday – Post Madaraka Day

a day late, most from the daily papers

banking:
Refund dilemma: What should banks do with Safaricom refunds of 80%? Wisest would be to take the money and accept refunds from disappointed shareholders to pre-pay their loans. It would not be wise to refuse to accept money and insist that borrowers serve their loan durations– as idle money has many employers. The middle ground would be to facilitate investors to buy more safcom or other shares, but that’s a new risk area in investment banking. Ideally there should be loans for secondary market purchases or margin trading.
Next I-bank Equity Bank to set up an investment banking subsidiary (from Ocean Newsletter)
New note Kenya needs a new bank note – denomination 3,000 or 5,000 shillings soon.

NSE talking points:
Fuel hedging?: Despite the reduced flights, its’ amazing that Kenya Airways actually reduced its fuel bill in 2008 (albeit just 1.6%) – this is at a time when other airlines are going bankrupt because of high fuel costs. Can they do it again in ’09 without having to resort to radical fuel saving measures?
– Total Oil interested in Caltex and will compete against the government for the stations
– Government and NSSF to opt out of Housing Finance rights issue
– Fresh off a profit warning, the Sameer Africa boss out; is this the reason the reason ?
– Undugu? Nation reporters in Tz still not comfortable
– The City of Nairobi is now Safaricom broadband hotspot who are selling postpaid hotspot bundles.
Equipment is a broadband modem for 6,000 ($98) and a broadband router for 35,000 ($570) shillings. Service options offered include – up to 700MB for 2,000 ($33), up to 2GB for 4,000, 5GB for 7,000, 8GB for 10,000, and up to 30GB for 30,000 ($491) , but weak customer care remains an Achilles heel for new Safaricom products

Parastatals
– Refinery Coalition Libyan and India to share equaly/ (happily?) in the Kenya Oil Refinery in Mombasa
– The Agriculture Finance Corporation (AFC) asks farmers to continue paying their loans since most of them were not affected by post-election violence
– East African Portland cement to start paying all supplier invoices by electronic financial transactions (EFT)
– Kenya Railways selling land in makupa (7 acres), kibarani (9), embakasi (10) and a building in headquarters (D/L 27/6)
– Kenya Ports Authority to set up an inland container depot (dry port) at Eldoret (seeking bidder to lease operate by 20/6)
– Kenya Re say their will put up a transit hotel at JKIA (was in their 2006 prospectus)
– The City council of Nairobi seeks land to for a new cemetery
– Education: Makerere University (Ug) to offer courses in renewable energy