Category Archives: Nairobi Stock Exchange

Thanksgiving Portfolio

Earlier: Thanksgiving 2006 portfolio

The Stable
Diamond Trust
Express
ICDCI
KCB
Scangroup
Sameer
Stanbic (UG)
Total
* Uchumi (suspended)

What’s changed?
In: ICDCI
Out: None
Increase: Diamond Trust (rights), Scangroup
Lightened: KCB
Dividends expected: no interims
Unexpected gains/losses:
New listings not taken on: Kenya Re
Best performer: Stanbic (Ug)
Worst Performer: Total (though the dividend is assured)

Looking forward to: none really. I sat out of the Kenya Re IPO, and then didn’t really want it after the shares listed – maybe next year. Same with the Safaricom IPO which is getting dangerously close to the election, but which I expect to sit out again and instead give the money I have to some candidates (2 parliamentary, 1 civic) toward election expenses.

Lessons learnt: (i) you should not try and time trades e.g. company books for dividend close on Thursday, so you try and buy shares on Tuesday – just won’t work; think and trade long term (ii) attempts to buy low and sell high by setting a price based on yesterday’s high/low also won’t work; so think long term and don’t worry about intra-day prices

Performance Summary: The Motley Fool advises that investors should beat the share index to consider their returns a success. The NSE 20 share index is up 1% in the last six months while my portfolio is down 0.7% from May 2007. The actual share holdings are up about 13% but with the cash taken out from when KCB shares sold, the net position is down.

The real Safaricom EDGE

(Premium) Story in the Nation about the Cabinet being presented with a paper to approve the sale of 25% of Safaricom to the public.

This is a winning card this election year that will be foremost in the minds of investors and voters. A well managed Safaricom IPO before December could deliver more votes than needless voter expenditure or rhetoric from any leader.

Power shift: Meanwhile Bloomberg reports that – for the first time since WWII more money will be raised from European IPO’s than US ones. Stringent regulations, high costs (6.7% of IPO versus 3.3% for Europe) and the weak US$ to blame as 14 or the 15 biggest recent IPO’s were listed outside the US.

Nairobi Shares Portfolio – May 2007

Be a vulture

The Portfolio review is being done a week earlier than expected as I usually try and update six months from last review.

However, in keeping in sync with other blogger portfolios recently released by Odegle Nyang and Riba Capital, here it is:

Current portfolio
Diamond Trust
Express Kenya
Kenya Commercial Bank
Sameer Africa
Scangroup
Stanbic Uganda
Total Oil
* Uchumi (suspended)

What’s changed?
There are fewer shares and portfolio has less value than before as I sold more shares than I bought back.

In: Stanbic (Uganda), Total
Out: Crown Berger, Kenya Airways, Kengen
Increased: Diamond Trust (Rights)
Reduced: –
Dividends expected: D-Trust, Express, KCB, Scangroup, Total
Unexpected gains/losses: Express bonus share, KCB share split
New listings not taken on: Access Kenya, Mumias (Rights)
Best performer: Stanbic (Ug)
Worst Performer: Sameer Africa
Looking forward to: Kenya Airways, Safaricom IPO

Performance Summary: The Motley Fool advises that investors should beat the share index to consider their returns a success. The NSE 20 share index is down 10% in the last six months while my portfolio is down 13% from November 2006.

I sold Kenya Airways shares at around 120/= and for the first time my portfolio does not have KQ shares. If the price continues to drop, I expect to buy some shares in this great company in the coming days, before they announce their year end results – which should have been finalized, but may be delayed by post-Cameroon events.

Thanksgiving Portfolio

Shares I own
Crown Berger
Diamond Trust
Express Kenya
Kenya Airways
Kenya Commercial Bank
Kenya Electricity Generation Company
Sameer Africa
Scangroup
* Uchumi (suspended)

Verdict: Surprisingly little change from six months ago

Performance: The Motley Fool advises that investors should beat the share index to consider their returns a success. The NSE 20 share index is up 30% in six months while my portfolio is up about 35% from May. *(The NSE index still lists Uchumi and if I zero it from my calculations my portfolio is up only about 30% in six months)

What’s changed?
In: Scangroup
Out: Housing Finance
Reduced: KCB, Kengen
In-n-Out: Sold Sameer Africa high bought it back low
Dividends: Payments from Kenya Airways KCB, D-Trust, Crown and Kengen (not factored into my performance return)
Bonus share: Express
Best performers: Scangroup, HFCK, D-Trust
Worst: Uchumi
Risk vs. Return: Some Nyramids give 30% a month returns, but I can’t afford to take those risks
Looking forward to: Kenya Re, Diamond Trust (rights), and Safaricom

No drugs at NSE

The Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) through a paid statement by its chairman, Mr. Jimnah Mbaru, has responded to recent allegations that the growth of funds invested at the NSE had come from drugs or other illegal sources.

He says it’s mainly from a basic shift among institutions and individuals who previouly used to invest in land and real estate but have now moved to more liquid invstements such as to equities and government securities

The increased funds come from, among others sources:
– many Kenyan parents don’t have to pay primary school fees anymore since the advent of free primary education
– better management & compliance of pension funds who before had too much real estate investments including the NSSF
– increased insurance premium collections and increased corporate retained earnings
– substantial remittances by Kenyans in the Diaspora – estimated at $750 million to $1 billion annually
– international investors
– & first time investors in stock market including over 200,000 who bought into the Kengen IPO