Category Archives: KPLC

Urban Inflation Index: December 2008

Four months ago last review (should be a quarterly exercise going forward) . 2008 has been a year with high prices and cost of living factors in the news. From the post-election violence in January to the (then) world oil prices, the pinch has been felt in Kenya.

The Government has come under pressure, but without addressing of its own excesses (procurement, new offices & limousines, parliemantarians, councilors and judges who refuse to pay income tax), has likewise tried to run the screw on the corporate sector – resulting in efforts to reduce the price of petrol and now maize flour (staple food)

Gotten more expensive

Staple food: Maize flour which is used to make Ugali, that is eaten by a majority of Kenyans daily. A 2 kg. Unga pack at Uchumi today costs Kshs. 97 which is 1/3 more than the Kshs. 73 four months ago. Farming woes continue, the crop this year is bad and Unga who said that they ran out of flour, among other revelations at their AGM, also stated that the maize harvest in 2009 will be worse and high prices will continue. There have been allegations of dodgy imports and the Government is today trying to arm-twist the price of Unga down to Kshs. 55 (EDIT – the Government announced today that maize will cost Kshs. 72 in urban areas and Kshs. 52 in rural areas)
Other food item: Sugar (2 kg. Mumias pack) is at Kshs. 160, up from Kshs. 145 three months ago. For Mumias customers and shareholders, the price is even lower for other unbranded sugar(s) on shelves.

Foreign Exchange: 1 US$ equals Kshs. 79.08, (18% weaker) than the Kshs. 67.4 four months go. This is partly the strengthening of the dollar, partly outflows from Kenya (at the NSE) – and comes after the shilling (while strong) had cushioned some impact of high oil prices.

Gotten cheaper

Fuel: Litre of petrol fuel (at local petrol station) is now Kshs. 92.7 (~$5.40 gallon) which is about 10% cheaper than the Kshs. 101.50 seen last time. While that is still higher than it was at the beginning of the year, and oil prices are down over 60% from the record highs of mid-2008, it is remarkable that for once fuel prices have reduced. In the past they have merely stagnated and oil companies, not passed on savings to consumers, but the threat of the government to regulate the prices, and a sustained media campaign (web/radio) has resulted in a slight reduction in petrol prices. (EDIT – A leading oil marketer – Shell announced today that prices will drop by Kshs. 15)

Entertainment: Bottle of Tusker beer (at local pub) is Kshs. 120 down from Kshs. 130 (cheaper by 8% from four months ago). Don’t know if this is one pub decision or the competition from new Summit beet launched by Keroche in October 2008 – the first true local competitor since (South African) Castle folded shop about six years ago. How will EABL fight back, and do they have to? Keroche got off to a good start but there has been little post launch marketing.

Communications: Continues to get cheaper as two mobile phone companies have become operational in the last quarter of the year – Orange (France Telkom) and Yu (Essar/Econet). The tone was set by Zain’s successful Vuka tariff, priced at Kshs. 8 per minute to call any network. Market leader Safaricom responded with Jibambie (up to a 63% discount) which enabled their subscribers to make calls at prices ranging from Kshs. 8 down to Kshs. 3 per minute if they bought a bigger denomination airtime voucher. The battle for subscribers is shifting now from voice calls which have reached unprecedented lows to data and money transfer where Safaricom is effectively Kenya’s largest ISP and money wallet.

No change: Electricity: My November KPLC bill is still Kshs. 1,900, same as it was in August, with a fuel surcharge reduction yet to be effected. High electricity prices have been a major cause for concern among Kenyan companies leading to President Kibaki to call for a reduction in the taxes levied on petrol prices and electricity.

But: Related: Is the quality of official statistics inflation data in question?
EDIT – Challenged by inflation, but with a view to improving liquidity, the Central Bank of Kenya today lowered the CBR rate (implied base rate) from 9 to 8.5% and also lowered the bank minimum cash ratio from 6 % to 5%

Bad News Bears

Correction Window: At the beginning of the month it was Crown Berger shares that did a swan dance on some pedestrian financial results and last week it was the turn for Portland cement (EAPC) shares to take a drastic dip in value with the announcement of reduced profits.

This has generally been a tough year for manufacturing stocks and the next few days should see year end results of both Kengen and KPLC who have been battling over tariffs and leaving consumers suffering and manufacturing companies & industries threatening to shut down or decamp owing to high electrical costs.

There are some shares on the NSE that are perceived to be under-valued and some that are over-valued (don’t pay dividends, appreciate on speculation, limited trading activity) – and the announcement of financial results (with the waiver of the 10% daily share price rule) gives the market the chance to correct/adjust share prices. But will these share drop? Do they have any reason to? Their P/E ratios are already so low.

Already Safaricom CEO Michael Joseph has said that the price dip of Safaricom shares have no impact on the company’s performance (their quarterly results will also be tricking in soon)

Electric Shock

Last month’s electricity bill from KPLC was an all-time high, and who would have thought it could still go up? This month it’s Kshs. 2,590 ($39) – up from Kshs. 1,860 last month. Consumption was ‘161 units’ costing Kshs. 1,000, but that was exceeded by their fuel costs [billed at 769c per kWh – whatever that is ] that added another Kshs. 1,240 to the bill, followed by all the various other government tax and regulatory percentages tacked on to everyones’ bill.

Again ‘fuel costs’ are to blame – Who does KPLC buy fuel from? Retail outlets? If I bought my own fuel, and sold it to KPLC I’d probably make a profit. KPLC spent 14 billion on fuel last year – about the same as Kenya Airways [Kshs. 15.6 billion, but who were able to reduce their fuel bill this year by 5% through hedging contracts] and that’s three time as much as electricity generator Kengen who spend about Kshs. 5 billion on fuel [they have a competitive bidding process – to reduce fuel costs, and Total has the contract now] – but I hope KPLC who only distribute electricity address their fuel procurement process in future before passing all costs on to costs to their over-burdened consumers and taxpayers.

So how much are you electric bills this month?

April 18: Mostly Equity Links

KCB goes payday: with a salary advance product, that mimics one popular, silent, product of Equity Bank – the salary advance loan. KCB’s is up to 100,000 shillings ($1,600) or 50% of salary with no hidden charges – read more on pay day loans

Equity niches: Equity has cut a niche for discovering new products – basically they see a gap and Kenyans with needs and they step forward and finance that need. Where there was no one there, now one can do pretty much anything. e.g Farmers crying about fertilizer costs, next thing, there are equity fertilizer loans for them!

Equity goes regional with the acquisition of Uganda Microfinance Limited: good luck creating a cross-border seamless bank that will enable account holders to transact regardless of countries. Even multi-nationals have hiccups with that.

KPLC extends credit : The KPLC (Kenya Power & Lighting Company) is looking for a bank/MFI to advance 400 million shillings (4 million euros) Electricity Connection Revolving Fund to allow their potential subscribers to pay electricity connection (setup costs) over several months. What are the odds that Equity will win the contract that requires that specifies that the award will go to a MFI/bank that is 10 years old with more than 30,000 active customers, a turnover of 100 million shillings, with 90% repayments and that has been rated by a recognized rating agency in the field of micro-financing/banking?

Wanted

Savings A/C
I wanna be with “_____ Bank” but KCB need not apply
I want a savings account- that has no ledger fees, no monthly fees, or EFT fees, that has a reasonable minimum balance and sends statements out frequently. I want a savings account that emphasizes savings, not fees. Short-listed banks include ABC, Barclays, Consolidated, Equity, Stanbic, and Standard Chartered. Any other suggestions or referrals?

Kenol shareholder
I’d like a Kenol shareholder to volunteer and write up an account of the company’s AGM this coming Friday. Full credit will be given.

E-bill
Ever since their MD looked like he was about to leave, Kenya Power & Lighting Company’s revolutionary system of billing (by SMS or e-mail) have stopped. I have yet to see my bill and fear a power cut soon as this company is quick to cut of subscribers who default. I’ll pre-pay an estimated amount tomorrow just in case – to avoid the cut & expensive time-consuming reconnection hassle.

Explanations
Why this and Why that? – Or is it business as usual?