Category Archives: Kenyaelection07

Rebuilding Kenya: mini steps

Talks are ongoing, marches have been postponed and parliament possibly opens next week – January 15 , paving the way for the country to focus on re-building – but these initiatives can’t begin until a proper government is in place that is seen as legitimate internationally:

Finance: We have companies who have not done business in two weeks, or received their just-in-time supplies – yet they are expected to pay full installments to banks at the at the end of the month. There’s even a mega tourist hotel opened over Christmas in Mombasa! The financial sector will have to chip in terms of waivers and new financing for businesses destroyed. These include;

(i) Debt forgiveness: at a minimum a waiver of installments for three months. Loans can be refinanced and the Kenya bankers association (KBA) to agree on modalities.
(ii) Rebuilding Fund: Last year we had women’s fund, youth fund and another funds is needed, with the support of the international community. Business people should be allowed to re-build in new areas if they are not comfortable re-investing where their businesses were destroyed
(iii) Insurance fund: Since it appears that those whose cars or businesses were looted and burnt will not be compensated by the insurance companies.
(iv) Some form of specific assistance to farmers e.g. livestock, crop replacement, (see a past initiative)

Banks : may be reluctant to chip in, arguing that their portfolios in half the country have been negatively impacted – but since they are about to announce record profits for 2007 their arguments will not be viewed with sympathy.

Employment : Impact will not be seen until about mid-year when companies announce their March 2008 results (they are still competing their 2007 accounts, which were normal up to the end of December, apart form the extended public holidays). The Kiss FM breakfast crew have been vocal about cutbacks if they don’t earn income this month, and this week Barclays has asked casual stuff (who hawk personal loans) to stay home until further notice.

International relations: Mr. John Kufuor is the president of Ghana; he is also the head of the African union. He is no doubt a very busy man, yet his name has been bandied about in a cat-and-mouse, back-and-forth, should he-or not mediate the Kenyan political crisis. Either he is needed or we should not waste his time!

International media: Al Jazeera has become the channel of choice of since local media has instituted some-self censorship of the violence and politicians. But the international media has been found wanting; they have been called biased by BeckyIT while the Police Commissioner has called them gratuitous in desire for displaying morbid images – which they don’t show in covering their own country stories e.g. 9/11 or London bombing coverage. He asks that they adopt the same standards.

Different investor perspective: While local investors fret about falling stock prices, foreign investors may view the market turmoil positively since shares on the Nairobi Stock Exchange are viewed as being ‘over-valued’ compared to their regional peers

Also

Micro finance in Africa: According to list from Forbes of the top 50 microfinance institutions in the world – only two are from sub-Saharan Africa (both Ethiopian).

Finally; parallels in the Cricket world as two giants – India and Australia are also not talking to each other.

Alternative solution for Kenya election stalemate

The police are tired, protesters are tired, and many displaced people are stuck and starving as they contemplate rebuilding their lives. The citizens are ready to get started, but the government is not ready to get back. Citizens are out today wishing their banks would open to enable them to start school shopping for next week’s re-opening, but the government is the government is still on halt. The presidency is in doubt, and there is no cabinet in place.

Kenyans want to get back to ‘normal’ life and citizens in Nairobi are pretty much trying to do that. Solutions are being worked out, diplomat are talking to politicians, there are peace campaigns in the media – and some of us are fiddling and thinking at home while the fires cool outside.

what are some solutions? Some are not constitutionality possible

government of national unity – this seems to be thee consensus among bloggers and the diplomatic community – But no! We have had that since 2004 and it was about the business of government, not about national unity. Forcing two sides who don’t agree, and can’t stand each other to sit for an interim period is not going to work

interim government followed by new elections in a few months. These however cannot be overseen by the electoral commission of Kenya. In fact, after the 1982 coup attempt, the air force that instigated the coup were disbanded, and replaced by an 82 Air Force which ran for the next dozen years. Same thing should happen with the ECK. Also what will happen in those few months? Who will coordinate the government? Kenya’ can’t afford to remain in limbo for six months.

my thoughts: In primary school we learnt that there’s the executive (president & cabinet) judiciary, and legislature (parliament). Other bodies are the citizens (who voted about 4 million votes each for either Kibaki or Raila) and remain polarized, as are the media and religious leaders. The judiciary is universally seen as not being partial in this debate.

One institution we have intact and legitimate is parliament – whose members were gazetted this week. Parliament to be reconstituted – and they can then vote for the president.

The MP’s are our elected leaders and all (but 3) of the countries 210 constituencies have duly elected their representatives for the next five years. There elections are not in doubt for the most part and they are a legitimate group of people, many of them new to parliament for the first time. The vote can be in public or by secret ballot. And surely it will be easier to tally 210 votes than 10 million votes. This can be done in a week at most and will result in a legitimate president for the country.

With about ½ of parliament this would appear to favour the Orange side, but the race is open to all MP’s gazetted –not just Kibaki and Raila only. Any MP would be eligible, provided they meet other requirements so potential successors such as Mudavadi, Kalonzo, Saitoti, Uhuru, Karua, and Bifwoli could all run. The election would take a day, be under the full glare of media, and not require the electoral commission of Kenya.

The president elected by parliament – will then form the next government and appoint a cabinet of his liking. His first task of business will be national healing which will include resettlement of displaced persons, rebuilding small businesses affected by riots, relief efforts, rebuilding infrastructure, peacekeeping operations, mending international relations, etc.

The idea stems from novel I read recently, (can’t remember the title). Anyway, I’d dearly like to get back to posts on banking and stories like these, but until the politic is sorted out, they are not very useful to write about;

– Diamond Trust Bank: Taking regional banking to Uganda at no extra cost for cross-border transaction

– NIC desperate to go into stockbroking even with an imperfect deal – paid a lot, but don’t have full control over stockbroker

-Safaricom extended their cheap calls offer which expired on New Year’s Day to January 15. Many people are still on holiday, some unintended and will benefit from the extended period of ‘cheaper’ calls.

Elections derail Kenya’s Vision

some rambling thoughts to start the new year

It’s been a week since the election was held last Thursday and we are in a different world at the beginning of 2008.

Up till December 2007, the focus of Kenya was investing towards Vision 2030 – now we may have to find a new target to aim for – a Vision 2009, which is to perhaps to get the economy back to where it was in 2007.

The coverage by bloggers, Kenyan Pundit, Thinker’s Room and others has shown how we have receded from a generational vote (half the cabinet and sitting MP’s voted out – some after spending decades in parliament) to the equivalent of a – hate the term banana republic

Kenya has been there before, but was it necessary to go back? To be on CNN and Al Jazeera alongside Pakistan and Zimbabwe? If Ms. Bhutto had not been assassinated, Kenya would probably have been the top world story. This has now happened as Pakistan has reverted to status quo (with an election next month)- while the situation in Kenya has gotten worse each day.

The election was a spark; When one is car-jacked carjacked or caught in a Nairoberry situation, the smart advice, is to co-operate with the thugs – as a car or money is not worth your life. The election created such a feeling of being robbed in many parts of the country, but people fought back. They could not hit at the alleged (and likely) carjackers at the KICC, so they revenged against the agents of their perceived enemy (Kibaki, Raila, Moi, and Kivuitu) on the ground – their own neighbors.

Beyond Politics
From stories about the violence around the country, this has gone beyond any PNU vs. ODM, or Raila vs. Kibaki. It has pitted neighbors against each other, the have-nots against the haves, communities being targeted, revenge targeting, rapes, looting, highway extortion or murder gangs, and others acts verging on ethnic cleansing.

There have been simmering issues in the country – unemployment, poverty, landlessness, jealousy & envy, police crackdown on cartels in slums and the matatu sector, the government crackdown on pyramid schemes that had developed extensive networks of ‘investors and savers’ in many urban & rural areas, – all followed by opportunistic thieves (looters).

The bloodshed in Kenya is a result of simmering tensions in the country. It has been totally unnecessary, could have been avoided, but the spark/pressure cooker was triggered by the ECK decisions over the weekend.

consumers & the economy
My personal hardships pale in comparison to most Kenyans – but include; no petrol for car, January funds being used to stock up/buy essential dry foods, no fresh foods, no cash as ATM’s were empty/unplugged, lack of Safaricom airtime and Internet access (except by cell phone)

We as Kenyan citizens are not used to this – we have a culture of positive self development – that we have to improve our lives by investing, acquiring assets, educate our kids, – which probably informs a widespread government expectation that we will soon have to get back to work, and forget the politics.

But, on a national level, certain industries have taken a hit from which they are unlikely to recover this year (2008) – insurance, transportation, tourism, real estate & mortgages, banking sector, banking, real estate, the agricultural sector, infrastructure, insurance, and thousands of small businesses (SME’),

We can forget about 8% or 10% economic growth for 2008 and maybe the next two years as well. As banks, we tried to persuade companies (local and foreign) to commit to business decisions from October onwards – without much success; now their wait-and-see caution appears to have been the right thing, and they will probably take another six months to recommit. Also, the demand for credit to rebuild, both from the whichever ‘government’ and the private sector is likely to dominate the budget of June 2008.

There’s been a dead cat bounce, with some companies making a little money against the odds – Uchumi supermarkets, Safaricom, Taxi’s, private security companies, hotels (until they run out of supplies), and soon building & repair companies, but they will be the minority.

we need solutions

But don’t look for answers here:

– Police: They are tired and overworked. They have been on high alert since November tackling electioneering and extra security. They have done their best given the circumstances.
– Violence: does not solve anything
– international and diplomats – they seem to think political leaders have all the answers.
– Politicians: Everyone is calling on political leaders (Raila, PNU, ODM but especially Kibaki) to have dialog as a way to peace. While, as far as I know, no national leader has orchestrated any violence around the country, they are old hands (three years of constitutional war – remember ‘consensus building’) at sitting at the negotiating table and not resolving issues. They can wear out Nobel Prize winners and the international community with their bickering.
– The USA: As the WSJ story on the violence in Kenya shows, they have a history of siding with sitting regimes after unpopular elections e.g. Ethiopia, Nigeria
– The Kenyan court system

The answer is citizens themselves

Every day this week, I have heard & seen touching stories like these;
– Neighbors talking to one another about maintaining their many years of peace
– Neighbors setting up watch out groups and liaising with the local police
– Neighbors taking in and sheltering friends, relative and strangers
– Police officers talking down residents this morning who had hoped to march to Uhuru Park.
– Local leaders and MP’s talking to their constituents – preaching non violence.
– Neighbors standing together and ignoring the sparks from outsiders

I’d like to see the media highlight more of these, but such peaceful efforts may only put such proponents at risk. However today, all th media houses appear to have come out with a joint peace campaign message.

And whatever the outcome from the peace parley’s over the next month; I’ll make money with a Kibaki win, but I feel that the country needs Raila to lead and tackle some of the serious imbalances in this country. If Kenyans were rated among the most optimistic people in the world in 2003, how do we feel in 2008?

other losers & gains

Losers
– Kenyans; It was sad to watch the pre-elections stories on Al Jazeera and CNN breaking the election number down by ‘big’, ‘populous’ tribes of leaders, but the vote outcome showed that we still vote against tribal lines
– Kenya: The image of the country is shot. There are the huge land cruisers racing around Nairobi displaying their MEDIA and RED CROSS stickers and flags that grant immunity and safe passage in trouble spots. And will the Diaspora continue to invest in the country?
– President Kibaki whose 50 year political legacy is at stake
– Former president Moi; his sons lost and what were those ODM Win violence threats about?
– Majimbo proponents.
– The ECK and especially its Chairman whose popularity stemmed from the fact that Kenyans expected him as a righteous, religious man to do the right thing.
– Free secondary education promised by all the parties will likely be shelved, as will many other promises made in November/December.
– Nyerians who are the butt of jokes by their regional neighbors for their incompetence at ‘vote tallying’ (this could either be funny or not – I apologize if you’re offended)

Winners
– Kenya voters who turned out in record numbers, despite overwhelming difficulties, many voting for the first time. Unfortunately many of them have been stranded in the rural areas where they went to vote & enjoy Christmas.
– Safaricom and Celtel until their distribution networks dried up: – I thought Safaricom would be shut down, but it is so essential for communications (police use cell phones more than their call radios) and has kept families in touch. People have used M-Pesa and Mama Mikes to send money to stranded relatives even from abroad.
– NGO’s and civil society. They had become largely irrelevant under the NARC administration, but have become energized by the post-election outcome.
– Former president Moi: the sad events of the past week could have happened in 2003, but he took the mud and the humiliating defeat, and walked away (until recently) – allowing the pent-up emotion in the country to become euphoria and optimism.

Who’s your next MP?

I have met a few MP’s, watched several live debates in the last parliament, and lot’s of TV over the last five years. What is shocking to me is how different an MP that you know is – almost a two-faced person who’s a serious level-headed professional debater in private who schmoozes the private sector and donors in person, and yet gets on TV at a rally and talks like a Neanderthal, insulting opponents from far flung places around the country.

The MP’s in the outing parliament who impressed me (yet I don’t know any of them personally ) – are people who were always in parliament, debating and active in legislative matters – these include Maoka Maore, Justin Muturi, Martha Karua, Njoki Ndungu, Wafula Wamunyinyi to name a few.

Yet many of them will not be back next March. For every professional i.e banker, farmer, stockbroker, accountant, IT specialist or other professional like Jonathan Mueke who take a first time plunge to make a difference, there are other perennial candidates that they have to run against – and however Jonathan turns out, he’s likely to be better than several other candidates who include folk like;

Current MP’s: best illustrated with quotes from Joseph Kamotho and Norman Nyagah who after losing party nominations and defecting to new parties – said I must be on the ballot and my constituents love me and I must reciprocate that by continuing to serve them.

ex-MP who feel the cold of being out of parliament. But like a gambler the morning after a big-loss night out, they think they know what they did wrong, set about scraping resources to make another lucky run the next night at the casino of parliament. In real life, they still call themselves ‘honorable,’ watch their dwindling money, as they maintain political and social networks ready for a comeback. And if asked, they are always ready to deny that they are interested in returning to parliament, but the lure is too easy and they are a sure bit to be in the ‘right party’ come election time.

Grey MP’s: not Grey in age, but these are people who have some blemished reputations – running from dubious financial escapades at Kenya Posts & telecommunications, health care sector, Goldenberg, road construction, public service, collapsed banks, etc. – who go to parliament where they will work to influence the the Public Investments (PIC) or public accounts (PAC) committees (from within) who investigate 5 year old scandals. They are well funded, know how to play (dirty) tricks, and buy their way into cash hungry political parties – since going into politics after a scandal ridden period provides a re-birth of sorts that legitimizes someone who perhaps should be a defendant, not a ‘honorable MP’

And once a professional gets to parliament does it matter how they perform as legislators? Maore, Muturi, and Muriuki Karue (who introduced the game changing constituency development fund scheme in 2003) have been voted out of parliament by their constituents this year. The CDF was a good measure of how MP’s handled public money as a measure of how an outgoing MP has performed, but I’m sure there are hardworking development minded MP’s (e.g. Tuju) who will be voted out for reasons other than addressing and improving the welfare of their constituents.

So by what measure, should we judge our parliamentarians? Many are judged by the handouts they give or how many constituents they can stuff into the bloated government workforce over the five years they are in office. It is wrong, but until the expectations of constituents change, we will remain stuck with the same old folks. Or, as the 2002 – 2007 period showed, you may vote in new cheetah’s but they will be old hippos that the same constituents will happily vote out & cheer away five years later.

Random post election questions
– does a president who loses an election remain eligible for the handsome 2002 presidential retirement package if he remains in active politics?
– how many bank loans are likely to be recalled or go bad, given the high number of MP’s (likely to be 50%) thrown out by constituents this week?

IPO’s, Election Day, and Christmas shopping

It’s been a very tiring day, after spending seven hours waiting to vote. Still, if I’m willing to buy shares in a crummy IPO, I should be equally tolerant of a election day that occurs every five years.

The week also included Christmas shopping and could also have included the Safaricom IPO before it was wisely put aside till mid 2008.

mini comparison

personal touch: While IPO’s have arrangements for high-net worth and corporate investor that shield them from the crowds (place orders over the phone, and wire money after the IPO), Christmas shopping and elections are a duty that most people have to perform in person.

For elections, you must present your identification documents in person, and for Christmas shopping, a gift is as unique as the buyer perceives the recipient will appreciate what they have chosen. So in the voting queue or at Nakumatt on the 24th or 25th on December you’re likely to meet many freinds & colleagues, or interact with a well known personality or two such as the head of the Nairobi stock exchange and a presidential candidate. It was also very touching to encounter the president daughter shopping in Nakumatt – picking out gifts, pushing a basket and queuing alone, so different from the high security entourages and preferential treatment that surrounds her folks.

Logistics: Shopping wins, IPO’s second, while voting is a distant third. The electoral commission reliance on manual registers to search for voters was time consuming (see my 7 hours). This was after as a previous voter, who had verified using their online system, should have been straight forward. There was a lot more confusion with the electoral commission of Kenya station than the last time round – and even worse in parts of Langata where a leading presidential candidates name was missing from the register (others will see it as sabotage).

Early bird: It’s good to be early with Christmas shopping as you can make careful decisions, shop for bargains, and a have a variety of goods to choose from that are often sold out by the time us late shoppers arrive. But with IPO’s and elections, often the right decision is to wait until the middle (end of first week for IPO, or noon of election day) after the anxious early-bird crowds have been sevred and disappeared. E.g. While i spent 7 hours voting, some people queued for 20 min tops in the afternoon

Some other elections observations:
– Party observers, who were only keen to help their party members. They increased the workload of ECK official who should instead be tending to voter individual queries and problems
– ECK officials arguing in public with each other. It’s understandable given the stress they are under to cope today, but bad for the image.
– The Langata snafu
– Self policing in the lines, in the absence of police or NYS officers who were absent from the poll station
– met my candidate almost alone in the queue, and later saw his big party rival who had a dozen strong media and security entourage
– EU observers walking around, but not talking /interacting/understanding voters in the queue unless there was the possibility of some violence

Summary: all in all, a tough week, with a lot of time and effort required. The Safricom IPO was taken out of the picture which was a big relief to the other two events.