Category Archives: Kenya economic growth

Corruption is Always a Good Story

Look at these quotes about corruption.

  • Material corruption of the highest magnitude seems to be flourishing in African public life (1)
  • The speed which with 
people in authority amass personal wealth can only point to the assumption that they use their public positions to get rich as soon as possible (2)
  • Although several governments have advisory commissions to suppress corruption and have anti-corruption officers, these measures are ineffective. (3)
  • The president has decreed that all ministers declare their wealth but has exempted himself  (4)
  • The prime minister has in 2 years since taking office, been able to purchase property ten times his net worth, and completed 4 houses. He also owns proportion Washington that he rents out t o the Embassy (5)
  • What worries me is that those in power are not really affected by what we are writing (6)

Obote coverThese are now new, but are from an article called Corruption in African Public Life, that was published in the East Africa Journal (does it still exist?) in November, 1967. That issue had Uganda President Milton Obote on the cover and cost Sh 2.25.

While it warned, in 1965, that corruption was the greatest single cause of the fall of governments in Ghana, Nigeria,  and Sierra Leone, it also noted, in a philosophical perspective, that corruption was not East African creation, and that Plato,  in his “Republic” had posed that leaders should not own any possessions except their power, they should live in communes and not marry. Also that, in East Africa, only Tanzania has taken concrete steps to fight corruption, through the Arusha declaration which banned capitalism &  feudalism, the holding of directorships in private companies, receiving more than one salary, and owning houses to be rented to the government.

 Re: the quotes above:

  • (4) was Kwame Nkrumah in Ghana.
  • (5) was Sir Albert, in 1967 Sierra Leone.
  • (6) was Kenya’s Sunday Nation quoting Chinua Achebe.

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Africa’s New TFTA Economic Bloc

So what’s the TFTA (download an English language PDF here)? Why is it so important?  And what’s good about it for Kenya? A lot of that is in this nice article by the Oxford Business Group titled Kenya to benefit from newly agreed TFTA. 

Extracts

  • The Tripartite Free Trade Agreement (TFTA) is an economic integration initiative pursued by the East African Community (EAC), the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which will create a 26-country integrated economic bloc.
  • Members of the TFTA aim to progressively eliminate tariffs to trade in goods, liberalise trade in services, cooperate on customs matters, among other areas.
  • Kenya is expected to be 1 of only 5 countries in the bloc to see exports increase by more than $100m following full implementation of the TFTA.
  • The TFTA gives Kenyan exporters preferential access to 6 new markets not already covered by the EAC or COMESA, namely Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia and South Africa.
  • “Sensitive” agricultural goods like sugar, maize, wheat and rice will be subject to duty and quota restrictions, as will other products such as cement, plastics, electronics and paper till at least 2017 to give these industries in some countries time to adjust to increased competition.Highland tea export journey
  • Members of the TFTA aim to progressively eliminate tariffs to trade in goods, liberalise trade in services, cooperate on customs matters, among other areas.

Ahead of the World Trade Organizations (WTO) 10th Ministerial Conference (MC10) to be held later this month in Nairobi, Kenya’s parliament (national assembly) hurriedly ratified the TFTA . This was in a debate just before their year-end recess, and during this, some members chastised the government (executive) for being slow to bring  the TFTA before parliament – and legislative assent is a condition that all member states must meet.
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SME Lending in Kenya

The Central Bank of Kenya, Financial Sector Deepening Trust Kenya and the World Bank, have published a study on bank financing of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Kenya ($1=Kshs 100). Excerpts

  • The total SME lending portfolio in December 2013 was estimated at Kshs. 332 billion, representing 23.4% of all banks’ total loan portfolio
  • Donor Support: Nearly all of the banks interviewed received some form of donor support or were in discussions with donors for support directly related to financing of SMEs. In several cases there were banks with support from as many as four donors at a time.
  • Limited Government Intervention: In 2010 The Government (though the Treasury) established a special SME scheme, called the MSE Fund, but since 2012 no new loans have been approved by the fund. According to Treasury, the scheme was discontinued because “the intention was not for the Government to lend, but to create an incentive for banks to engage with SMEs”. After only a year of the fund’s operation, banks started to lend more to SMEs from their own books, especially Equity Bank, and therefore Treasury did not see any reason for the continued operation of the fund. In addition to the MSE fund, the Government set up a Youth Fund and a Women Entrepreneur Fund, in which a number of banks are participating. The Government is also contemplating a partial credit guarantee for agricultural loans.
  • Courts Not Good at Dispute Resolution:  Enforcement of secured claims appears to be slow and costly, affecting the cost of credit. It takes 4.5 years, costs 22% of the value of the debtor’s estate, and only yields 30% of what is owed
  • PE & VC’s: The majority of around 15–20 active private equity funds focused primarily on SMEs with a perceived financing gap of typically between US$50,000 and $5 million. The funds target deal sizes of around $1–3 million, which is still at the high-end of the SME segment and is therefore out of reach for most SMEs in Kenya. The venture capital industry is still nascent with about 10 venture capital type funds, but interest from international firms, as well as local ones, especially in the emerging ICT industry, has recently been on the increase. There are several incubators which have been set up to help build the pipeline for such deals, but the sector is still at an early stage of development
  • 3 Kinds of Banks: Banks target the market segments they are most effectively able to service. There are 1. Corporate oriented (Barclays, CfC Stanbic, Standard Chartered)  2. Supply-chain oriented (BoA, Chase, DTB, Ecobank, FINA, I&M, NIC) 3. Micro-oriented (Co-op, Equity, Family, KCB, KREP, Jamii Bora)
  • Overdrafts are Bad: The most interesting finding from this analysis is arguably the central role played by overdrafts in SME lending in Kenya. While overdrafts can be useful to meet immediate liquidity needs and to avoid firms having to turn to informal lenders or shadow banking, a problem arises when firms use overdrafts to fund specific working capital or investment financing needs. Overdrafts tend to be very expensive and inefficient in addressing specific business funding needs. Banks, on the other hand, may have limited incentives to reduce firms’ reliance on overdrafts, as the overdrafts usually provide high profit margins. Nonetheless, during the interviews some bank managers confirmed that over-reliance on overdrafts can be a major hindrance to the development of SME finance in Kenya: overdrafts are a financial ‘black box’ because they do not reveal why firms are borrowing nor how the loans are used.
  • Interest Rates: The average annual interest rate is 20.6%  for microenterprises, 18.5% for small enterprises, 17.4% for medium enterprises and 15.3% for large enterprises.
  • Potential 20 Million Credit Reports: As of 31 December 2014, a total of 5.2 million credit reports were requested by banks, compared with 2.3 million as of December 2012. Adding the information from the over 20 million registered mobile money/mobile financial services users would lead to a significant expansion of the underlying information base.

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Kenya Economic Update 2015

The World Bank launched the 12th edition of the #KenyaEconomicUpdate in Nairobi today.

  • John Randa of World Bank Kenya said they still predict Kenya will grow at 5.4% this year, and it’s economy is sustainable
  • He said In the last 4 years, Kenya government expenditure has grown 7%, while revenue has grown 2%..this is not sustainable
  • Also that when agriculture performs, the Kenya economy performs (but there are people who say agriculture is inconsequential)
  • World Bank John RandaBut the government getting more revenue from income tax, but what is coming from VAT is declining. Also that stocks in Nakumatt aisles are like those in SA, and perhaps Treasury should consider excise tax on unnecessary imports
  • Interbanks have been volatile, but less so than it was in 2011 (Arab Spring) and if all tools are used,  volatility can be managed,  but with better  communication to investors – and that while public debt is rising it’s still sustainable. 50% is not cast in stone, it is unofficial
  •  He said exports are a drag, that are falling behind as a share of GDP since 2011, while imports have remained the same. With the stagnation of manufacturing sector, exports are not growing. Kenya has to fix exports as that’s the only solution for the manufacturing sector. Past incentives don’t seem to have worked and while most manufactured products go to the region, there is completion from India and China – while local companies face poor transport, high input, and high credit cost. Still the government has r out several initiatives to help like easier business registration, infrastructure investments and the port improvements.

Government Spending has gone from Kshs 696 billion in 2011/12 to 1.5 trillion in 2015/16

  • But increased spending is not all due to counties. In  2012-13 national government was 24% of (XX), today it’s 26%.
  • They will have to make some cuts by looking at discretional spending – and there is a lot of space to cut in the 2 trillion budget e.g. obscure roads and also from the duplication of functions at both the national and county governments – such as the health ministry whose budget has not trimmed despite health being devolved to counties.
  •  The SGR, whose full impact will be seen in a few years, has already boosted GDP by 1.5%, according to the IMF.

Micah Cheserem, the former Central Bank Governor, and current Chairman of the Commission for Revenue Allocation, also made some remarks. He was introduced as having been appointed to the Central Bank (CBK) when Kenya had turbulence in 1993 and CBK went on to take the Kenya shilling from 82 to the dollar to 38 in 2 years.

  • If choosing between weak shilling or high rates, choose low-interest rates & let the market set the currency rates. If someone bought a flat in Lavington at 15%, they won’t afford it if the bank raises the mortgage rate to 25%.
  • The World Bank Kenya should do more county reporting and see what the 4.1% funding to counties has done. When this goes to 40%, this might be Switzerland
  • Government should release money & not disturb county pilots. Nairobians should travel & see changes from devolution. For many Northern Kenya counties (Turkana, Samburu, Mandera, Wajir), independence came in 2013, not 1963 and there’s no going back. Despite challenges & noise, devolution is working, and in 2.5 years, counties have done more things in some places than the national government in 50 years.

County Finance:  County leaders woke up to citizen participation in budgeting only after a court invalidated the Kiambu govt budget (quoting a Turkana county leader in a World Bank Kenya video)

  • Perception of success of devolution are tied to development – it is positive where there is infrastructure development. Kenyans care and judge development by roads and health facilities. 
  • Counties are still failing in sharing budget info as per the PFM act – e.g. finformation should put on web. They say uptake on the website it poor, but they are not making budget available via other sources,. Still the council of genres have put up all 47 county development place on the council website.

Other: Terry Ryan said, if you take out the ( Kenya Airways – one time purchase) airplanes, Kenya’s current account deficit comes down significantly.

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Kenya’s First REIT IPO

About a year after laying out their plans,  the Capital Markets Authority has approved the first REIT to be issued in Kenya – and it’s from Stanlib Kenya.

Stanlib Fahari I-Reit will issue an initial public offer for investors to subscribe to units in the new REIT which is expected to raise a minimum of Kshs2.6 billion and a maximum of Kshs12.5 billion. The unrestricted IPO will be listed on the main investment market segment of the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE).

US$1 = Kshs 105 this week
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