Category Archives: Kenya economic growth

Kenya – Dubai: Fresh Exports & Chamber Commerce Trade

There’s a delegation from the Dubai Chamber of Commerce & Industry in Nairobi this week and they were hosted by the Kenya National Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KNCCI). The Dubai Chamber announced that they will open a representative office in Nairobi, their fourth in Africa, after Addis, Accra, and Maputo – to do market research, discover opportunities for partnership and value addition, support Dubai businesses in Kenya and give Kenyans information about business opportunities in Dubai.

dubai-flag

Kiprono Kittony said Kenya imports about $900 million from Dubai and exports about $300 million. He said that some challenges of business in Kenya include double taxation between the counties, infrastructure to the counties, corruption, but that he saw endless trade opportunities for their 14,000 members in 45 counties.

Naushad Merali said that when he first went to Dubai in 1982, it was smaller than Mombasa, but it had since transformed, thanks to Sheikh Mohammed’s leadership.  He said Kenya was one country with a stable currency and Dubai investors would not have to worry about moving money in and out the country – and that while manufacturing was difficult due to dumping from Asia, the advantage was if you were doing agro-business, especially of things that are grown here. A Stanbic bank executive said they were the largest bank in Africa said they were ready to finance projects in infrastructure energy, renewable energy, tourism, electricity transmission etc. – and that while banks are able to do projects of $25 – $ 60 million, with larger than $100 – $200 million, ones there was need to syndicate across borders.

bananas-for-dubai

Hot button issue. Kittony also spoke of Kenyan flowers that go to Amsterdam and then get re-shipped to Dubai. He added that Kenya had developed a disease-free livestock belt that could export to Dubai and the Gulf states (GCC). Someone else said that there are only 5 Kenyan fresh products on Dubai supermarket shelves (including mango and avocado) out of a potential 70 others, and lots of fresh stuff is sent to Europe where it is repacked and relabeled before being shipped to Dubai. While someone else said the lack warehouses and charter flights from Mombasa and Eldoret were the problem, another said that there were 14 Emirates flights a week, along with others from Kenya Airways and Etihad (and Qatar) – so flights were not the problem. Another said that Kenya had simply not marketed itself fully to Dubai in terms of what it could produce and export and get to Dubai via a 4 hours flight or a 12-day ship ride. Kiprono later lamented that flights flew into Eldoret, full of cargo, and flew out largely empty – while they could carry flowers, coffee, bamboo and other things.

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Mining Moment: Kenya Mining Forum

Excerpts

Kenya’s Mining Cabinet Secretary, Dan Kazungu; Kenya has a $30 million budget for an aerial mineral survey, and will also start a mineral data bank & audit unit

  • Kenya has gold, coal, iron, copper, titanium, niobium, fluorspar, limestone, CO2 (carbacid in Kiambu), gypsum and gems.
  • In April, the cabinet approved a mining & mineral policy, and in May, Kenya repealed the 1940 mining act and replaced it with a new progressive law.  The mining act 2016 aligns itself to 3 documents – the 2010 Constitution, Kenya Vision 2030 and the AU Africa mining guidelines
  • Mining was an environmental ministry department until Jubilee made @madinikenya an economic transformation pillar.
  • The new application laws are simple, clear, predictable and transparent for a level playing field. They engaged the industry and there will be no more single-person decisions. Committees will give feedback on mining requests in 3 months with reasons, and if  mining applications are for worth more than $500  million, it has to go through Parliament.
  • Intra-Africa trade can also include legally-trade minerals i.e make Kenya a trading hub (not a smuggling one)!

Patrick Obath: How can Kenyans get more mining information? Right now it’s only in the gazette which hardly anyone reads.

Central field at Base Titanium, Kwale, Kenya.

Central field at Base Titanium, Kwale, Kenya.

Martin Ayisi: Kenya law now recognizes artisanal mining . . can have impact like Mali where they produced 23 tons of gold worth $742 million in 2015

  • Kenya government can now award some mineral rights by tender, as opposed to the first -come, first-served way.
  • Prospecting consent is guaranteed by law .. the challenge is when to apply for formal permission.
  • Mining investors hate when governments change the rules midstream.
  • Kenya is creating a national mining corporation but there have not been success stories in Africa. Nevertheless, they will take on lessons from Ghana and Zambia and learn from those.

Dominic Rebelo: Miners are concerned that at the end of licenses, all assets go to the Government (immovable ones go to the national government, and movable ones to the county government) ..some investors will scale back operations and sell-off (strip) assets to preempt this before their licenses end.

  • Mining companies and mining support companies will be licensed and have comprehensive disclosure & progress report requirements. This is to lock out briefcase ones, or people who sit on licenses for speculation.
  • Large mining companies are to list 20% in 3 years, but stock exchanges require 5 years of  profit – there may be a need to create a special stock exchange for mining companies. Also,  the government gets 11% for free (10% equity + there’s 1% stamp duty to be paid).
  • If a mining investor finds a strategic mineral, they have to stop operations indefinitely & declare the find. There needs to be certainty of what is defined as a strategic mineral, and a defined process of getting a mineral on or off that list.

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France & Kenya and Renewable Energy

Yesterday there was forum on renewable energy in Nairobi. It was organized by the Embassy of France and the Kenya government to show executives from French energy companies opportunities to invest in renewables and other energy projects in Kenya and Africa. Aqylon, Engie, GreenYellow, Quadran,  Sogea Satom, Total , UrbaSolar, Vegrent, and Vinci representatives were part of the group.

French companies built hydro dams in Kenya

French companies built hydro dams in Kenya

Excerpts

  • Large silent corporations include Engie which produces 3 GW in Africa and Vinci which has EUR  800  million of revenue, and 14,000 staff in Africa.
  • SUNREF from AFD/KAM provides tailored finance for green energy to Kenyan companies through Bank of Africa,  CBA,  Diamond Trust and Cooperative Bank. 11 companies have now been financed, and some that have got SUNREF green energy finance include KTDA, Meru dairy, Strathmore University, and Redland Roses.
  • Kenya has 10 independe power producers (IPP’s) producing 650 MW (28%) of its electricity – shows how vibrant it is for investors.
  • Regional electricity sharing in future: Kenya produces 2,200 MW, Ethiopia 4,284 MW (90% from hydro), Tanzania 1,583 MW (65% from thermal), and Uganda 900 MW (80% from hydro)
  • GreenYellow works with factory, malls, hotels, to finance & build (heat/cold/solar/light) systems that reduce their energy costs by 30%
  • UrbaSolar is working with Kenyatta University on a 100% self-consumption plant that will reduce electricity bills by 80% (20% is night).
  • Total is constructing a 40 MW solar plant at Isiolo with Green Millenia, while Kenya’s rural electrification authority (REA) has got funding to do a 50 MW one near Garissa.
  • KenGen which provides 80% of Kenya’s electricity, has tendered for an Olkaria 5 plant, and will build an industrial park there.
  • There’s opportunity in Kenya off-grid & mini grid electricity, but there’s no legal framework for integrating with the national grid integration & projects sometimes face land acquisition or compensation delays.
  • Solar has not picked up in Kenya, but with drop of photovoltaic prices, there’s lots of interest here now – Energy Permanent Secretary J. Njoroge told the companies..  He also said renewable energy is intermittent – it can only be used up to a certain % of Kenya’s electricity grid supply. Later there was  mention of CSP solar plants which are more complex & expensive than traditional PV ones which but do give stable solar electricity.

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Mobilizing Domestic Resources for Africa’s Transformation

This is the theme of the third Africa for Results Forum (AfriK4R) forum that’s taking place in Nairobi from July 13 to 15, and organized by the African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF) and the African Development Bank (AfDB).

The first one was held in  2013 in Harare, and the next  in 2015 in Abidjan. One of the main concerns has been that, with the diminishing official development assistance (ODA)  to Africa, estimated to be 27% in 2014, and down from 38% in 2004., the budget needs of African governments need to be matched by a growth in local resources like taxes, exports and natural resources.

Kenya’s Devolution CS Mwangi Kiunjuri cited some of the resources available to Africa including $520 billion annually from domestic taxes that Africa generates, $168 billion from minerals & fuels,  $400 billion that Africa holds in international reserves, rise in Stock market Capitalization from $200 billion in 1996 to $1.2 trillion in 2007 and $160 billion in sovereign wealth funds (10 African countries have established these)

Challenges of African government face to mobilize domestic resources include: a very narrow tax base and a huge informal sector; high levels of capital flight; tax evasion & avoidance; proliferation of tax exemptions; lack of legitimacy of tax administrations; relatively low penetration of the formal banking sector; and lack of human, technical, legal, regulatory, and financial capacity to deal with illicit financial flows – Thomas Munthali, Director, ACBF.

Munthali, also cited good examples of domestic resource mobilization including the  Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) reform on e-money; the Uganda border-post anti-smuggling trade measures; the Zambian direct deposit of fees into one government account; Zimbabwe’s tapping on the informal sector by introduction of presumptive tax; and Malawi’s use of Electronic Fiscal Devices in VAT collection.

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The Fusion Real Estate REIT (FRED)

You can now invest in Kenya’s second REIT (Prospectus – PDF), that closes on Friday this week. The Fusion Development Real Estate Investment Trust (a.k.a. FRED) aims to raise Kshs 2.3 billion ($23 million) through the sale of 100 million units at Kshs 23 each.

FRED comes after Stanlib’s Fahari I-REIT that launched last year. While Fahari was an I-REIT, this one is a development REIT (D-REIT). Stanlib, who aimed to raise Kshs 12.5 billion, ended up with Kshs 3.6 billion, a 29% uptake, which included an investment from the IFC. The minimum investment was affordable (Kshs 20,000) but Kenyans are slow to take to exotic products in this case REIT’s as opposed to the usual bonds or shares, and that one came amid a spate of bank collapses.

FRED plans to use the Kshs 2.2 billion (i.e Raise Kshs  2.3 billion minus issuance costs of Kshs 100M) for Greenwood Park, a mixed development comprising a shopping mall, office block and residential apartments that is currently under construction in Meru.

The REIT manager is Fusion Capital, and the REIT Trustee is Co-Operative Bank of Kenya (Coop). Fusion Capital, TT Africa Real Estate and Binder Limited are the vendors, and Coop will purchase on behalf of the REIT. The construction has started at a 2.5 hectares (6 acre) plot. The  value of land (Kshs 330M), contractor work done (Kshs 547M), and other work In progress (Kshs 186M) plus other items add up to Kshs 1.15 billion. They have certificates payable of Kshs 239M and a net asset value of Kshs 892M of the development.

 Other Features

  • The units will be listed on the restricted market segment of the Nairobi Securities Exchange.
  • Minimum subscription is 50% (Kshs 1.15 billion – and the promoters will make a decision on allocation of units, an extension of dates or a withdrawal, if the minimum is not reached).
  • Minimum investment is a subscription for 218,000 units worth ~Kshs 5 million (so this means they will get about 450 investors at most for this which will be a closed fund)
  • The offer runs from 23 June to 15 July
  • Other partners include Fusion Investment Management (REIT manager), NIC Capital (lead transaction advisor) Mboya Wangong’u & Waiyaki, (legal advisors), Deloitte Consulting (reporting accountant) Ngotho Consultants (property valuer) Burbidge Capital (SPV valuer) Citiscape Estate Agents (property manager)
  • Expenses include lead transaction advisor (Kshs 30M), legal costs (6M), Reporting Accountants (0.7M), selling commission (35M), CMA fees (7.5M), NSE fees (1.25M) PR costs (2M), Advertising costs (8M) – total Kshs  99M.

Fusion Capital is undertaken the projects including Flamingo Towers (Upper Hill – Kshs 1.3B), Upward Scale (offices on Ngong Rd – Kshs 1.5B), Hand in Hand (residential in Athi River – 600M), Starehe Homes (90 3 BR apartments in Mtwapa – Kshs 1.2 billion ), and Kigali Heights (office next to Kigali convention centre – Kshs 3.7B)

The retail, entertainment and lifestyle facility, measuring 25,000 square metres when complete  that would be the centre of attraction in Meru County for many years to come. The promoter’s  anticipate 100% occupancy for the residential, offices and retail spaces. They have chosen to sell the residential parts (2 bedroom apartments for Kshs 10 M & Kshs 10.3M and 3 bedroom ones for Kshs 13 M) and that combined with offices (Kshs 12,000 psf) and retail (Kshs 21,592 psf) space rents will lead to a payback in 3 years.

Meru Nanyuki road

Other

It’s been reported that Nakumatt will be the anchor tenant at Greenwood mall and that 45% of the mall has been booked.

Also, investment firm Cytonn had a report which noted that:

  • We analyze(d) returns on the Fusion D-REIT offering, and recommend our investors to participate in the offering.
  • As compared to other investment opportunities such as a 5-year Kenya T-bond currently yielding 13.2%, FRED offers equity IRR of 20.5%,. 
  • However, the key risk is the ability of the development to be executed within the defined parameters.
  • Mombasa, Kisumu and Nakuru are the leading frontiers in mall space supply, after Nairobi… The Mt Kenya region which comprises of Meru, Embu, Nanyuki and Nyeri has the largest development pipeline, and Meru and Nanyuki have been identified as investment frontiers due to population growth and tourism activity.

EDIT: On  July 17, the deadline was extended to July 26.

EDIT 2: On  July 27, the deadline was extended, for a second time, to August 4.

EDIT 3: On  August 5, the deadline was extended, for a third time, to August 24.

EDIT 4: On August 26, the results were published in the newspapers which showed that Fusion had achieved a 38% subscription rate, raising Kshs 873 million from 4 investors (3 of whom were shareholders in the asset being acquired). The offer did not meet the regulator’s criteria of 7 investors or the 50% target for the promoter. Nevertheless, the promoters will seek alternative funding to complete the project construction on time and consult the CMA and NSE about reopening the REIT at a future date.

$1= ~Kshs 100
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