Category Archives: kenya communications

Urban Inflation Index September 2010

Tracking changes from three months ago – in June and one year ago

Quarterly Review – Young population: The results of the Kenya’s national census done in 2009 were released last month and the results are still being interpreted. Politicians obsess on tribal numbers, economists caution on birth rates, while businesses can look to demographics like the number of mobile phone owners, the number of youth in the country, along with other intriguing findings such as the population of Kibera (largest slum in Africa) being 1/3 of previous claims, and remote Mandera is the 4th most populated constituency in Kenya (after Embakasi, Kasarani and Juja which are all in Nairobi environs). It confirms other findings like the Safaricom 2010 A/R which notes that “…with the North Eastern
region’s economy growing by over 200%, owing to improved security & enhanced economic activities, the area is no longer ‘served’ from Nairobi.”

Price control: A price control bill was rejected by the President who referred it back to Parliament for amendments.

Costly Health Insurance: The National Hospital Insurance Fund set in motion a plan to roll out a rather expensive health plan by increasing mandatory deductions from 320 per month to up to Kshs 2,000 ($25) for anyone earning over 100,000 ($1,200) per month. The matter has been challenged in court and the agency has been accused of not consulting widely with other health sector players and employers in a bid to revive earlier health bill

On to the index

Gotten Cheaper – Staple Food: Maize flour, which is used to make Ugali that is eaten by a majority of Kenyans daily. A 2 kg. Unga pack at Uchumi today costs Kshs 65 compared to Kshs. 71 three months ago and 84 a year ago.

Communications: All Kenya’s mobile phone companies have call rates of about Kshs 3 shillings per minute to call across networks. Exactly a year ago Safaricom has launched super ongea tariff, which promised rates of as low as 0.8 shillings, but from a base of Kshs. 8 within network. What has changed? The arrival of airtel in Kenya who will pursue a low cost high volume model though outsourcing of services among other measures. i.e. today it was announced in India that they will sell their African mobile base stations to a subsidiary company (Bharti Infratel) that will re-sell them to private equity funds.

Even as Kenyans have celebrated the new chap call rates, Airtel have ruffled many feathers in the last month, forcing Safaricom and the other smaller mobile companies to match the very low tariffs, and this has been called unsustainable by some, a dis-incentive to investors by others, and even a situation which may result in a mobile operator closing shop. Two years ago, Safaricom had launched ‘ongea tariff’ which was a Kshs 10/= rate

About the same – Utilities: Latest electricity bill is Kshs 1,700 ($21 for a month) up from Kshs 1,450 on June, but better than 1,900 a year ago when there was drought in the country.

Other food item: Sugar : A 2 kg. Mumias pack is Kshs 200, unchanged over the last year. Two years ago, it cost 145, a price we may see next year when the COMESA regional sugar quotas are done away with. Already, leading sugar company Mumias has diversified into electricity co-generation, bottled water, and soon, ethanol production.

Foreign Exchange: 1 US$ equals Kshs 80.8 compared to 80.6 in June. BUT, Two years ago it was Kshs 67.

Beer/Entertainment: A bottle of Tusker beer is Kshs 170 ($2.1) (at a local pub) compared to Kshs. 160 three months ago. However it is tough to find a perennial location to keep track in Nairobi’s fast changing pub scene, where even Nairobi’s favorite sports pub Hooters closed last month. What needs to happen is a combination of Murua’s Tusker Index with this interactive beer map from the Czech Republic!

More Expensive – Fuel: A litre of petrol fuel (at local petrol station) is now Kshs 94.5 ($5.25 gallon) up from Kshs 90.9 per litre in June. The back and forth petrol war continues between leading oil distributor Kenol and the Ministry of Energy officials who include the Kenya pipeline company, the Kenya oil refinery and the energy regulatory commission about the issue of preferential allocation of space and who owes who more. On their side Kenol can count on some political muscle, the fact that they blew the whistle on Triton Oil before it collapsed, they are the country largest corporate taxpayers. High prices at the pump are not unusual, as two years ago petrol was retailing at Kshs 101

Safaricom 2010 AGM

Safaricom held their second AGM since their 2008 share listing at the Bomas of Kenya on September 2 2010.

Angry Shareholders: really complained into management, mostly about the low dividend, and lack of freebies – and the ~1,000 shareholders largely went home unsatisfied (the bus stage was quite full)
Low dividend: Different shareholders complained 20 cents ($0.0025) dividend per share was too low, was not recognized as currency in Kenya, was not comparable to the company’s 19 billion ($238 million) profit, was not worth picking if it fell to the ground etc. The Board Chairman replied that this was a result of the large number of shares and, it was 100% increase of the previous year, and they were looking into share consolidation as a way of making it more meaningful
No SWAG: Shareholders complained about not being given transport to the venue, why there were shirts only for Safaricom staff (they [shareholders] are better ambassadors of the brand), why they only got bottles of water & juice on a cold morning, and why they could not treat shareholders better, when companies like Kengen, many shareholders (~¼ of Safaricom) could? One shareholder who looked like he had been to a ‘local’ before he spoke, said he regretted buying the shares, admonished the company for taking from the poor (subscribers) to give to the rich (board), hurled a few other insults in his speech and walked out to some applause.

No SWAG also includes annual reports, which were handed out at the door, but which shareholders felt should have been mailed to them. The Chairman said that this was a logistical impossible, it would cost almost 250 million ($3 million) to mail 800,000 books and last year shareholders had themselves approved that reports be placed on their website or headquarters, with summarized versions printed in the newspapers. How unwieldy is the large shareholder base? The registrars’ computer list at the entrance was over a month old and they did not have records of anyone who bought shares in the last few weeks.

Is CSR bad for shareholders?: Later on when not satisfied with the Chairman’s response on the dividend, they began tackling expense items in the books to see if they could dig out some cuts to yield more profit. Corporate social responsibility items came under fire; this argument was first seen at Stanchart a few years ago when shareholders felt ‘their dividend’ was being diverted to unauthorized expensive projects (said shareholder and former MP Jimmy Angwenyi), and which were costly (But Chairman replied that the total amount was Kshs 250 million, broken into small impactful sponsorships like boreholes and schools that had no overall impact on the 8 billion dividend [$100 million]) . Again they went further and began tackling huge payment items (anything larger than the dividend) and suggesting to the Board ways to cut down these costs.

Competition from Zain Airtel: Shareholders also took a stab at management for the high costs of their services, in relation to Zain who had recently cut call and SMS costs to 3 shillings and 1 shilling respectively arguing that the company management is asleep and they will wake up when they find their customers have fled unless they too cut prices. Outgoing CEO Michael Joseph took on these and said they had studied Airtel in India and were ready for the price cuts, but were surprised by the underhand tactics/accusations that followed. Safaricom will find a balance to protect their customer numbers, market share revenue, but most important were their profit margins. He added these prices were unsustainable, but that Safaricom would still make more money at 3 shillings than anyone else

Share price: Later in comments about the share price which has declined in the last month, CEO said the market over-reacted to Zain/Airtel promo they are due to foreign sellers who don’t understand Kenya. They take parts in road shows to teach such investors about the market, how they EBIT margin of 42% is exceptional compared to others like MTN and Orascom, and 4 of the 5 analysts who cover Safaricom put the share price as Kshs 5.5 to 5.8 (who’s the dissenter?).

Farewell Michael Joseph: Late the Chairman called on shareholders to thank retiring CEO Michael Joseph who built the company up from nothing in 10 years to be leading revenue earner and top brand in Kenya.

Waving the patriotic flag: After the meeting ended, CEO gave a talk on his pride in the company, which is a Kenyan company one can be proud of with its customers, M-Pesa (which people all over the world come to study), M-Kesho savings accounts (500,000 users signed up in 2 months). It is 60% owned by Kenyans, which none of their competitors (i.e. Zain, Orange, Essar can claim), all their spend is in Kenya, all their profits are re-invested in Kenya, with nothing outsourced outside. It has 2600 employees (all in Kenya), and supports over 250,000 other Kenyans through dealership and mpesa agents and another 1,500 in customer care (which they can move that to India but that would not be in the spirit of the company)

Reading the Safaricom Tea Leaves

Post two of three: Safaricom has been one of the most progressive companies in terms of investor relation’s management, largely because of the cost of their large shareholder base. They spearheaded move to avail electronic instead of printed annual reports and payment of dividend by m-pesa, as opposed to cheques which were unviable for many shareholder who had the bare minimum of shares. Another benefit of electronic reports is that they are easier for potential investors to obtain (some companies print as few reports as legally possible and they don’t circulate widely)

Inside Safaricom’s 2010 A/R

Shareholders: – Safaricom has 787,363 shareholders down from 828,912 in 2009
– The Government of Kenya has acquired more shares in the company despite a stated move of divestment. This year they have 22 million more shares, going up from 35% to a 35.06% stake
– Overall there are more foreign buyers of Safaricom shares, but NSSF Rwanda may have exited
– Director Esther Koimett bought 517,600 shares, and chairman Nicholas Nganga has 850,100. Outgoing CEO Michael Joseph and Finance Manager Les Baille each own 2.5 million shares, while their replacements, Bob Collymore and Chris Tiffin have none
– Last years’ AGM (the first since NSE listing and prominently advertised as having no handouts or frills) was attended by just 2,182 shareholders.
– 180,000 shareholders got their 2009 dividend by m-pesa (mobile phone payment)

Performance – Revenue breakdown of the 83 billion ($1 billion) in revenue voice accounted for 75% (2009: 83.4%), with SMS and other data at 9.7% (2009: 8.8%), Mpesa at 9.0% (2009: 4.2%) and equipment sales at 4.4% (2009: 3.3%). Revenue growth was 8% for voice, 32% for SMS/Data and 158% for Mpesa n all categories was positive with voice at 7.8%, SMS and other data at 32.4%, 58% for equipment sales and 158% for Mpesa
– North Eastern Kenya region is growing by over 200% owing to improved security

Other Numbers – Earned Kshs 7.6 billion ($95 million) from m-pesa (up from 2.9 billion in 2009)
– Has Kshs 10 billion ($125 million) in cash and short-term deposits, up from 4 billion the year before. Safaricom earned interest income of Kshs 350 million in the year
– Borrowings comprise 6.28 billion from a consortium of banks, 2.3 billion from one bank, and 7.5 billion in corporate bonds
– Have 2,000 dealers and 200,000 retailers
– Pay income tax at 27%, compared to 30% before they listed at the NSE

Staff – Launch ESOP in 2009 with 101 million shares and which will be issued in 2013. 2165 staff (88% of total) have joined the scheme
– Key management were paid 522 million (up from 438m)
– Of their 2,470 staff the company has an almost equal ratio of male and female employees

Fibre/Data Investments: – are investing 890 million into Seacom: they paid 316 million and balance of 573 million is to be paid over the next 5 years
– Paid 2 million to TEAMS for a 22.5% stake (other shareholders are GoK and Telkom both with 20%)
– Paid KPLC Kshs 116 million as part of 290 million for use their power network for fibre distribution over the next 20 years
– Bought packet stream data networks, for wimax,for Kshs 373 million shillings, and has lent Kshs 600 million to One communication (in which they own 51%)

Customers – their internal customer delight index had a measure of 7.38 last year against a target of 7.76
– Its true that premium customers get better customer service – there is a platinum line at call centre to service platinum (high end) customers on a prioritized basis (i.e. even by calling regular customer service free help line, ‘100’ they get through and served faster
– Safaricom business has over 2,000 customers including airlines, media houses, banks
– Mobile data is responsible for 90% of data revenue
– customer growth (their measure) Safaricom took up 65% of new phone lines in last year
– website: Safaricom the most progressive companies in online investor relations in terms of results and investor briefing posted on the web site and now dividend payments by mobile phone. It now uses twitter & facebook accounts, to promote its services and also try and (slowly) responsd to numerous customer service and product queries posted online

Rival disclosures: Safaricom’s main rival is Zain Kenya – and while it is not a listed company, the former Zain parent was listed on the Kuwait Exchange, and used to produce some extensive reports on their African operations – ranking individual countries by revenue, profit, subscribers – which was information that the local Zain office did not typically share. Similar information can also be gleaned from Orange of France about their Telkom Kenya operation.

Zain Africa sold to Bharti Airtel of India and while a financial quarter is yet to pass since the takeover, it appears they may follow the trend, as they are also a listed company with segmented reporting requirements. For Kenya in July 2010, they note that:

– Airtel Kenya has been given additional frequencies that enable it to offer 3G services
– All operators will have the right to borrow funds from the universal service fund (a fund that will comprise 1% of mobile operators annual turnover) and to use to set up infrastructure in the identified rural areas.
– Kenya companies are Bharti Airtel Kenya B.V. (name changed from Celtel Kenya BV), and Bharti Airtel Kenya Holdings B.V. (name changed from Celtel Kenya Holdings BV)

Reading the Access Kenya Tea Leaves

one of three
Over the last few years’ shareholders have voted to allow their companies to reproduce abridged financial statement summaries in the newspaper. One of the benefits of these resolutions would be to reduce costs of administering to thousands of shareholder, who previously were entitled to receive a full copy of a company’s audited results by mail.

Now companies have the full accounts on their websites for shareholders, to download, with a summary of the annual general meeting notice, dividend, chairman statement, and financial summary that appear in daily newspapers.

Limited numbers of the accounts are still printed and kept at the company premises, and distributed to analysts, partners, or to any shareholder who requests one. However most shareholders do not have Internet access or computers to read these PDF’s and may miss out on some details of events at the company.

Three companies are about to have their annual general meetings in the next few days, and have all converted to the digital format in lieu of printed copies. Kenya Airways and Safaricom both had their financial year-end in March 2010, while Access Kenya has had a good year (2009), but their meeting was delayed by boardroom wrangles which saw a new chairman brought in, and later by a drop in first half 2010 results (announced earlier this month).

AGM – Auditors Deloitte continue in office (new Chairman Mr. Ndonye was a long time partner there)
– Shareholders will be asked to endorse a concluded deal to buy out the remaining 30% in Openview, which they describe as a company that sells IT equipment to enterprises and corporate customers. Openview had sales in 2009 of 165 million, up from 147m the year before, but it seems the minority owners opted to sell the company to AK (their right under original sale agreement), and a settlement was reached where payment was made by share transfers, but they also agreed to pay Kshs 38 million to settle some claims by AK group biz daily

Notes – Dividend of 0.3 shillings per share will be paid for 2009, amounting to about Kshs 62 million
– AK still enjoys benefit of listing as a group by paying 20% in income tax compared to subsidiaries and other Kenyan corporates, which pay 30%
– Borrowings are up to 724 million (57m in 2009), but overdraft has been reduced from 166 million to 30 million. The group still has an overdraft position of 128 million. The loans are from NIC Bank and CFC Stanbic for both US$ and KES, with the bulk of this borrowing is in US$ which is cheaper (3%) is cheaper than the shillings ones (7%), unless the shilling depreciated significantly. Interest expenses for the year were 44 million compared to 6 million in 2008
– Communications solutions limited charged 370 million as management fee and owes 364 million
– Fibre: AK paid 106 million as investment into TEAMS (62.5 shares)

Shareholders: Has 32,674 shareholders and while there are some top shareholder changes, the AK ESOP has increased stake in the company

Website AK has an active presence on twitter, but is hounded by claims of poor customer service. Also from Twitter: The board has indicated there is strong interest in acquiring the company from three Telco’s but Safaricom have denied being one of them
-@bankelele reading vacationing @alykhansatchu in the star – safaricom share dips back below IPO price as CEO denies interest in buying access kenya
– @jgmbugua MJ is lying. I have impeccable information that they have approached AccessKenya at least three times. TKL, Airtel interested too
– @coldtusker @jgmbugua @bankelele Maybe in the past but does #AccessKenya add real value to @SafaricomLtd today? [I say no]

Bharti Airtel in Kenya

Zain/Bharti shake market: On August 18, Zain Kenya announced new unprecedented low rates for voice calls and SMS in a new tariff war. The new rates for calls of Kshs 3/=(~$0.04) per minute and for SMS of Kshs 1/=(~$0.01), which apply across all networks and are available to all Zain customers, easily trumps their main competitor, and market leader, Safaricom whose rates hover around Kshs 8 for a phone call and Kshs 3.50 for an SMS (and 12/= and 5/= to other networks for the same).

True cheap rates: The new rates have been well received with very popular comments online and a rush by consumers to obtain Zain lines or re-activate old ones. CEO Rene Meza called this a new long dark journey to market dominance [i.e. from 10% now] and one they will tackle aggressively for the long term. But is it sustainable? The last time Zain engaged in a price war, they ended in a bloody loss, with Zain gaining customers but not market share and $90 million in the red.

Airtel Strategy : However Zain Kenya is no more. The push comes from new owners Bharti Airtel of India who completed their takeover of the Zain Africa Group last month and will rebrand the company (in Kenya) by October 2010. They have also set out to re-position the local telecommunications sector in tandem with Essar and France Telecom by lobbying the government for other changes to level the playing field in a market they believe is unfairly dominated by Safaricom and which denies Kenyans true freedom of choice.

At the official launch in July, Airtel executives the emphasized some of their strategies including:
– They are rural focused and will build a rural brand through farming related promotions and CSR activities
– Be a low cost operators; employ low skilled sales force
– Lobby for number portability
– Push for lower interconnection rates which will lead to affordable products
– Lobby for infrastructure sharing i.e. no need to have 5 cell phone towers in a small town (all incurring electricity, security, cement, other charges) town when 1 will do with all Telco’s sharing transmission and fibre
– Work with ecosystem partners, like HP and Eriksson, and have a BPO call centre

Will the government deliver on low connection fees, number portability and infrastructure sharing? At the launch Meza mentioned that the Communications Commission of Kenya (CCK) had lowered the interconnection tariff from about 4 to 2 shillings effective September 2010.

Short-term losses: Meza said they plan to grow revenue and subscribers, and margins and profits will come later from operating a lower cost structure. And in a back stab at the previous owners (and perhaps minority shareholders), he said for the first time in eight years they have shareholders with the right mind-set to allow them to take opportunities in the market, increase rural penetration and utilise the right technology – by investing Kshs 24 billion (~$296 million) in the next 18 months on rural cell phone sites, revamping their zap money transfer systems, increasing their outlets & distribution network, expanding their 2G network, and rolling out a 3G network by the end of the year (since the license fee was reduced this year, they will be able to cover more parts of Kenya than just Nairobi and Mombasa)

Improve on Marketing: Marketing has always been a weak point at Zain, who keep throwing out too many confusing promotions one after another after another. The Wednesday Nation had a full-page ad for the new Zain (3/= and 1/=) rates and on the adjacent page was a small story touting a tariff for Zain ‘Club 20’ subscribers who could now get free calls and unlimited SMS from 11pm to 6 a.m. within the Zain network only! And all this comes a month after they had launched anotherrevolutionarypromotion. Hopefully this will hopefully change with the recent marketing executive appointments and re-focused brand and strategy.

EDIT – Other Developments
– Zain accuses Safaricom of sabotaging its new price offer
– Safaricom reassures Zain over inter-connect capacity, and says their concerns are premature.
– CEO’s e-mail exchange between Rene Meza (Zain) and Michael Joseph (Safaricom)
– Safaricom launches Masaa tariff with prices of Kshs 2-4 for Safaricom calls and Kshs 3-5 to other networks.
– Orange (France Telecom/Telkom Kenya) make their low cost pitch with Kshs 2 and Kshs 4 for on and off net calls respectively, with free on net calls from 10 AM to 5 PM for Kshs 100 per month ($1.25)