Category Archives: inflation trend in Kenya

Electric Slide

Kengen: the Kenya electricity generating company will have its third AGM later this week – and while shareholders may be happy with a Kshs. 0.90 dividend they will also be asked to approve (i) 30% investment in a geothermal development company to be created by the Government of Kenya (ii) invest in a coal plant (iii) participate in other ventures – (perhaps buy into another IPP independent power producer?)

The proposals to shareholders are vague and without any spending amounts attached, they should not be presented to a vote. When the Access Kenya board got shareholder authority to make other investments, they capped them at Kshs. 200 million each – this one has none, and the third proposal doesn’t even limit Kengen from investing within the energy sector so it could probably buy a sugar company or tea company (for cogeneration?) with that mandate.

Anyway, Kengen has undertaken a lot of geothermal work with three Olkaria plants and is it really necessary for the Government with strained recourses to create another parastatal at this time? Shareholders who were also spooked by plans of a secondary listing of shares and plans to hive off a geothermal company from their assets two years ago will also not be happy to see that the plans are. still active.

KPLC: The much-heralded VAT reduction in electricity bills has not amounted to much. It was effected in the November power bills, but the reduction in VAT from 16% to 12% appears to only cover the fixed charge of a Kshs. 240 per meter – so the savings amount to just Kshs. 9.6 per consumer.

Urban Inflation Index: December 2008

Four months ago last review (should be a quarterly exercise going forward) . 2008 has been a year with high prices and cost of living factors in the news. From the post-election violence in January to the (then) world oil prices, the pinch has been felt in Kenya.

The Government has come under pressure, but without addressing of its own excesses (procurement, new offices & limousines, parliemantarians, councilors and judges who refuse to pay income tax), has likewise tried to run the screw on the corporate sector – resulting in efforts to reduce the price of petrol and now maize flour (staple food)

Gotten more expensive

Staple food: Maize flour which is used to make Ugali, that is eaten by a majority of Kenyans daily. A 2 kg. Unga pack at Uchumi today costs Kshs. 97 which is 1/3 more than the Kshs. 73 four months ago. Farming woes continue, the crop this year is bad and Unga who said that they ran out of flour, among other revelations at their AGM, also stated that the maize harvest in 2009 will be worse and high prices will continue. There have been allegations of dodgy imports and the Government is today trying to arm-twist the price of Unga down to Kshs. 55 (EDIT – the Government announced today that maize will cost Kshs. 72 in urban areas and Kshs. 52 in rural areas)
Other food item: Sugar (2 kg. Mumias pack) is at Kshs. 160, up from Kshs. 145 three months ago. For Mumias customers and shareholders, the price is even lower for other unbranded sugar(s) on shelves.

Foreign Exchange: 1 US$ equals Kshs. 79.08, (18% weaker) than the Kshs. 67.4 four months go. This is partly the strengthening of the dollar, partly outflows from Kenya (at the NSE) – and comes after the shilling (while strong) had cushioned some impact of high oil prices.

Gotten cheaper

Fuel: Litre of petrol fuel (at local petrol station) is now Kshs. 92.7 (~$5.40 gallon) which is about 10% cheaper than the Kshs. 101.50 seen last time. While that is still higher than it was at the beginning of the year, and oil prices are down over 60% from the record highs of mid-2008, it is remarkable that for once fuel prices have reduced. In the past they have merely stagnated and oil companies, not passed on savings to consumers, but the threat of the government to regulate the prices, and a sustained media campaign (web/radio) has resulted in a slight reduction in petrol prices. (EDIT – A leading oil marketer – Shell announced today that prices will drop by Kshs. 15)

Entertainment: Bottle of Tusker beer (at local pub) is Kshs. 120 down from Kshs. 130 (cheaper by 8% from four months ago). Don’t know if this is one pub decision or the competition from new Summit beet launched by Keroche in October 2008 – the first true local competitor since (South African) Castle folded shop about six years ago. How will EABL fight back, and do they have to? Keroche got off to a good start but there has been little post launch marketing.

Communications: Continues to get cheaper as two mobile phone companies have become operational in the last quarter of the year – Orange (France Telkom) and Yu (Essar/Econet). The tone was set by Zain’s successful Vuka tariff, priced at Kshs. 8 per minute to call any network. Market leader Safaricom responded with Jibambie (up to a 63% discount) which enabled their subscribers to make calls at prices ranging from Kshs. 8 down to Kshs. 3 per minute if they bought a bigger denomination airtime voucher. The battle for subscribers is shifting now from voice calls which have reached unprecedented lows to data and money transfer where Safaricom is effectively Kenya’s largest ISP and money wallet.

No change: Electricity: My November KPLC bill is still Kshs. 1,900, same as it was in August, with a fuel surcharge reduction yet to be effected. High electricity prices have been a major cause for concern among Kenyan companies leading to President Kibaki to call for a reduction in the taxes levied on petrol prices and electricity.

But: Related: Is the quality of official statistics inflation data in question?
EDIT – Challenged by inflation, but with a view to improving liquidity, the Central Bank of Kenya today lowered the CBR rate (implied base rate) from 9 to 8.5% and also lowered the bank minimum cash ratio from 6 % to 5%

Unga AGM 2008

The company which was founded in December 1908 by Lord Delamere to mill his wheat harvest, is now a century old. It is celebrating its fourth straight years of profits on the back of improved sales Kshs. 9.5 billion (~$125 million) and profits of Kshs. 564 million (~$7.5 million). The Chairman commented on the improvement from the time a few years back when they used to record losses and had their financial accounts qualified by the auditors.

slow registration

Excerpts: missed a few minutes of the meeting as the registration was really slow – just two ladies, with no computer. They had to write every shareholder name down, and have them sign, but without verification of their legitimacy

Bonus: The company offering a (1) bonus share for each five (5) held to reward shareholders since the board had opted not to pay a cash dividend this year.

Company structure: The Seaboard Corporation is a management company and shareholder that contributed to the turnaround. However their presence is a sore point with some shareholders unhappy that while they have no divined, Seaboard gets paid a minimum of Kshs. 12 million a year that will escalate as the company gets more profitable. Their agreement has also been extended by the directors for another five years and there was also a question on the loans owed to the company that could be called in at any time – an unlikely scenario according to the board
– Shareholders also asked on the relationship between Nampak (a partner company) and Bulpack which was a joint venture between Nampak and Unga to make bags. The dividend paid that appears in the accounts was paid to Unga from Bulpak, and not by Unga.

(No) Dividend: Though this was the fourth year of profits, the board said it still needed to retain cash for plant & machinery replacement and to also strengthen the balance sheet.

No Maize in Kenya: Later the Unga MD Nicholas Hutchinson gave a talk on the current maize shortage and stated that the company (Unga) had ran out of maize (corn) stock floor eight days ago. He said there is not enough maize in the country, and the late decision by the Government to import maize, means it will trickle to the markets slowly – by mid December. The Cabinet may release more to millers, but the Government also wants to build up grain reserves and assist displaced people (flood, post-election violence victims)

The maize harvest this year was bad – Unga is offering Kshs. 2,500 per and 2,250 in Nairobi and Eldoret respectively but are still not able to get enough maize so they are operating about 35 – 40% which may show in the coming results

For consumers faced with a high retail price (just under Kshs. 100 for a 2kg pack, it’s a good time for farmers, but bad for consumers (dangerous?) – as prices may not drop significantly even after the supply. He said that the Government will be importing maize to Nairobi at Kshs. 2,500 if no duty is paid and that it must speculative ventures – which has affected supply of maize. Also, next year’s maize harvest could be just as bad.

Receivables: are much higher than the year before. Management responded that its from their increased business. They had in fact reduced the number of customers i.e. 55 key wholesalers that they deal (down from 140) with and gave them incentives to pay cash or open bank guarantees.

Outlook: – Asked about market share, management said it was growing. They focus on urban markets and supermarkets, and don’t emphasize rural sales as entrepreneurs can flour mill and sell it cheaper than Unga branded products.
– Other subsidiaries: are performing well like the Uganda one and animal feed division – Unga had anticipated a maize shortage so had started to substitute maize with wheat in their animal feed. Wheat subsidiary is good though the current good prices may fall next year

Shareholder gift

Goodies: Each shareholder present got a voucher for a bale of baking flour. Which retails at about Kshs. 1,500 ($20)

Nairobi Expense Account

Finally have one full year of data on expenses incurred. As part of an experiment I have tried to quantify daily spending over the last 365 days (and categorized them as follows)

Rent 37%, Investments 9%, Education 9% (bound to go up each coming year), Being a good guy 8% (Gifts 4%, Family 3%, Charity 1%), Fuel 7% (offset by more public transport use), Drinks 7% (socializing & entertaining), Dining 5%, Groceries 4% (not my docket) Communications 3% (take that Michael Joseph), Transport 3% (reading novels in the matatu), Utilities 3% (cost may double this year), Furniture 3%, Recreation 2% (I can afford to play more golf and get a decent handicap), Newspapers 2% (keeping up with politics & finance), Clothing 2% (FYI: Dr. Manu Chandaria only has 7 suits), Repairs 2%, Parking 1%, Personal 1%, Electronics 1%.

Urban Inflation Index

a week early, with some changes

Tracking prices of some urban commodities compared to six months ago and a year ago

Fuel: Litre of petrol fuel (at local petrol station) is Kshs. 101.50 ~ $1.50 (up 15.3% in ½ year)
6 months ago: Kshs. 87.99, Year ago: Kshs. 80.79
despite record world oil prices, government joint tender system has cushioned some impact on the economy – even oil companies are not celebrating

Staple food: Maize flour (2 kg. Unga pack at Uchumi) is Kshs. 73 (up 40% in ½ year)
6 months ago Kshs. 52, Year ago Kshs. 50
farming woes continue, poor crop expected this year

Other food item: Sugar (2 kg. Mumias pack) at Uchumi is Kshs. 145 (down 3% in ½ year)
6 months ago: Kshs. 150, Year ago Kshs. 150 Kshs
new minister trying to clean up notorious sector

Entertainment: Bottle of Tusker beer (at local pub) is Kshs. 130 (up 8.3% in ½ year)
6 months ago; Kshs. 120, Year ago: Kshs. 100
agricultural input costs rising, but post-budget sin tax pushed prices up. You need this to network in Kenya, or switch to Alvaro?

Communications: mobile phone promotion
This month Safaricom has Ongea tariff which has phone calls priced Kshs. 10 per minute all day, while Celtel has a Kshs. 3 per minute tariff (and with a conditional ‘free’ call package thrown in). Safaricom is also promoting broadband hotspots for the entire Nairobi and Mombasa areas.
– Six months go: Safaricom had extended the hours for Kshs. 8 calls on Saasa tariff, while Celtel had Kshs. 4 per minute calls to 3 preferred numbers
– A year ago Safaricom had Super Tariffic tariff which has calls 38% cheaper and SMS 30% cheaper than the previous tariff
mobile communications one of the few things that are getting cheaper

Exchange rate
1 US$ equals Kshs. 67.4 (shilling has appreciated 4.7% in ½ year)
6 months ago: 70.7, Year ago: 66.5
strong , but now sliding, shilling has cushioned some impact of high oil prices, but exporters are complaining

Electricity cost
New addition
My electricity bill in July 2008 is Kshs. 1,860
A year ago was Kshs. 995
Consumption was the same, the culprit was fuel costs adjustment which added Kshs. 820(649c/kwh) to my bill compared to Kshs. 200 shillings (170c/kwh) a year ago as KPLC recently increased the electricity charges which could have some adverse effect on the economy later in the year – already big manufacturers are investing in power plants and alternative generation sources.