Category Archives: CBK

IPhone to Kenya

Today will see the official launch of Apple’s i-Phone (3G) into the Kenyan market by Orange mobile. You could say it’s a case of bad timing as Kenyans are going through tough economic times and perhaps entering a recession period.

Recession or not?: With (very) high prices of petrol (until recently), electricity, maize and other foods, a spike in the government deficit, global financial turmoil, fewer tourists, reduced remittance volumes all signs would point to an economic slowdown. Right?

But not the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK): I have been in the past ‘impressed’ (did I say it was the best bank site?) by the volumes of reports published by the Central Bank, mostly because they are timely, though difficult to decipher the message.

The CBK reports have predicted some hardships but remained very optimistic and rosy about the country’s economy. But it appears that the messages are tailored to suit the tone of the day because Kenya’s leading business newspaper has taken note.

Today’s Business Daily has a very harsh critique of the CBK reports (which many banks, funds, government departments use to formulate their policies). The BD editorial laments the consistency of presentation, shifting periods for which data is presented, differences in figures published by KNBS (statistics bureau) and a determination by its authors to manipulate data through a series of omissions and change of periods under review that makes it nearly impossible to keep track of ongoings in the economy.

Former Nairobi Stock Exchange boss Jimnah Mbaru (who’s also a sometime author) thinks Kenya is headed for a recession and has published a column which ran in some newspapers and appears at Capital FM website titled How Kenya can escape recession. He advocates (like US President-elect Obama) that the Kenya Government spend its way back to robustness. Some of the proposals he suggests include reduce interest rates and cash ratio (which have already happened) but also some strange ones like the government should buy Safaricom shares, sell buildings, and mandates that more sewers be built he also says hedge funds cashing out brought down the NSE this year…hmm.

Blog views: In the absence of a Finance Minister, the Government is engaged in a series of Voodoo economics.

i-Phone outlook: Looking around Nairobi with all the Hummers, new Range Rovers, new apartments complexes etc., it is clear that there’s an affluent class that does not feel the pinch of a (possible) recession and despite the tough year it has been, there have been several new entrants in Kenya.

The i-Phone which has been a worldwide smash, and impressed many (not all) its customers, can be expected to do well here also. Like with the Blackberry before it – which was circulating here unlocked/hacked before its official debut, it will now be licensed and supported after the official launch.

Urban Inflation Index: December 2008

Four months ago last review (should be a quarterly exercise going forward) . 2008 has been a year with high prices and cost of living factors in the news. From the post-election violence in January to the (then) world oil prices, the pinch has been felt in Kenya.

The Government has come under pressure, but without addressing of its own excesses (procurement, new offices & limousines, parliemantarians, councilors and judges who refuse to pay income tax), has likewise tried to run the screw on the corporate sector – resulting in efforts to reduce the price of petrol and now maize flour (staple food)

Gotten more expensive

Staple food: Maize flour which is used to make Ugali, that is eaten by a majority of Kenyans daily. A 2 kg. Unga pack at Uchumi today costs Kshs. 97 which is 1/3 more than the Kshs. 73 four months ago. Farming woes continue, the crop this year is bad and Unga who said that they ran out of flour, among other revelations at their AGM, also stated that the maize harvest in 2009 will be worse and high prices will continue. There have been allegations of dodgy imports and the Government is today trying to arm-twist the price of Unga down to Kshs. 55 (EDIT – the Government announced today that maize will cost Kshs. 72 in urban areas and Kshs. 52 in rural areas)
Other food item: Sugar (2 kg. Mumias pack) is at Kshs. 160, up from Kshs. 145 three months ago. For Mumias customers and shareholders, the price is even lower for other unbranded sugar(s) on shelves.

Foreign Exchange: 1 US$ equals Kshs. 79.08, (18% weaker) than the Kshs. 67.4 four months go. This is partly the strengthening of the dollar, partly outflows from Kenya (at the NSE) – and comes after the shilling (while strong) had cushioned some impact of high oil prices.

Gotten cheaper

Fuel: Litre of petrol fuel (at local petrol station) is now Kshs. 92.7 (~$5.40 gallon) which is about 10% cheaper than the Kshs. 101.50 seen last time. While that is still higher than it was at the beginning of the year, and oil prices are down over 60% from the record highs of mid-2008, it is remarkable that for once fuel prices have reduced. In the past they have merely stagnated and oil companies, not passed on savings to consumers, but the threat of the government to regulate the prices, and a sustained media campaign (web/radio) has resulted in a slight reduction in petrol prices. (EDIT – A leading oil marketer – Shell announced today that prices will drop by Kshs. 15)

Entertainment: Bottle of Tusker beer (at local pub) is Kshs. 120 down from Kshs. 130 (cheaper by 8% from four months ago). Don’t know if this is one pub decision or the competition from new Summit beet launched by Keroche in October 2008 – the first true local competitor since (South African) Castle folded shop about six years ago. How will EABL fight back, and do they have to? Keroche got off to a good start but there has been little post launch marketing.

Communications: Continues to get cheaper as two mobile phone companies have become operational in the last quarter of the year – Orange (France Telkom) and Yu (Essar/Econet). The tone was set by Zain’s successful Vuka tariff, priced at Kshs. 8 per minute to call any network. Market leader Safaricom responded with Jibambie (up to a 63% discount) which enabled their subscribers to make calls at prices ranging from Kshs. 8 down to Kshs. 3 per minute if they bought a bigger denomination airtime voucher. The battle for subscribers is shifting now from voice calls which have reached unprecedented lows to data and money transfer where Safaricom is effectively Kenya’s largest ISP and money wallet.

No change: Electricity: My November KPLC bill is still Kshs. 1,900, same as it was in August, with a fuel surcharge reduction yet to be effected. High electricity prices have been a major cause for concern among Kenyan companies leading to President Kibaki to call for a reduction in the taxes levied on petrol prices and electricity.

But: Related: Is the quality of official statistics inflation data in question?
EDIT – Challenged by inflation, but with a view to improving liquidity, the Central Bank of Kenya today lowered the CBR rate (implied base rate) from 9 to 8.5% and also lowered the bank minimum cash ratio from 6 % to 5%

Mostly Centum

Last week the company CEO departed and the Centum (formerly ICDCI) directors postponed the annual general meeting (AGM) and payment of the year end dividend.

Today’s newspaper has a statement from the Centum Board asserting that:
– The management is firm, the company is on sound financial footing, and the departure of CEO Peter Mwangi had no relation to the delayed dividend and meeting. However, while Tony Wainaina (Mwangi’s predecessor) and Mugo Kibati (EA Cables) may have set a precedent for young CEO’s to enhance corporate performance and value and leave at the top, the timing & coincidence is not good.
– Statement does not address delay of the dividend which would amount to about Kshs. 248 million ($3.3 million). Without doubt, the conpany’s investment portfolio is down this year (quoted investments – which should be easily disposable include about Kshs. 1.5 billion of KCB (but down from 2 billion ), Kshs. 422 m of EABL and probably a healthy slice of Safaricom) – but it’s scary that three months after a company declared a dividend, it would find itself unable to fund it.

Toxic broker:
– Centum’s statement adds that its listed holdings are not accessible to any (rogue) stockbroker, and the company had no dealings with Discount Stockbrokers
– A separate from the CMA statement today effectively states that the company is under receivership by KPMG – owing to corporate governance including poor strategies manifested by an unsustainable expansion plan (branches all over the country)
– A bigger scandal than Discount appears to be at the national Social Security Fund (NSSF) whose dealings with Discount are a lesson for fraudsters.

Best Kenyan corporate site
In the wake of hiding from questions on Discount, the Centum statements along with financial results from listed companies (Kengen, EA Cables and KPLC) have appeared in the newspapers before they were posted on the NSE site. And though the NSE won an African Investor award (for 2nd runner up – most innovative African stock exchange) website updates should be a priority matter

Probably the best bank, and perhaps corporate site in Kenya, with the most relevant, timely, updates has to be the Central Bank of Kenya website with their controversial/pro-active governor Professor Njuguna Ndung’u (and his media team) who post several statements, speeches, policy matters a week (read it and judge)

Co-Op IPO: After a stop-go debate the Co-op Bank IPO has been green-lit and will begin in about a week’s time with investors still digesting refunds and possible losses from the previous IPO – Safaricom.
Dates: October 30 – November 13
Share price Kshs. 9.50 ($0.13) each (for 701 million shares)

Related Posts
– Reasons to invest in Co-op IPO (or not)
– The last Centum AGM (February 2008)
– Saying farewell at AGM’s: in style (Barclays) or in shame (Kenya Airways)

CBK Profits

The Central Bank of Kenya last week published for the their ended in June 2008(PDF)

Notes

Return to profitability
– Had a net foreign exchange gain of Kshs. 54 million, compared to a loss of Kshs. 9.3 billion in 2007. This changed the profit picture and enabled the bank to post a profit of Kshs. 8,995 million [9 billion or ~$123 million compared to a loss of 386 million in 2007
– Total income of was Kshs. 14 billion, up from 5 billion. Barclays, Kenya’s largest bank had total income of Kshs. 18.9 billion) up from 5 billion the year before
– Will pay Kshs. 4 billion dividend to the government

Other
– Had staff costs of Kshs. 3. 3 billion (which would be third after KCB and Barclays if compared to commercial banks)
– Commission on sale of government securities dropped to Kshs. 3.1 billion (from 5.2b in ’07)
– Kenya has Kshs. 100 billion (~~1.37 billion) worth of currency circulating, compared to 90 billion in 2007

Vindicates Kimunya
– Currency printing expenses were Kshs. 403 million (down from 1.25 billion in 2007) and something which the former finance minister was crucified for in dealing with De La Rue
– Mentions the $45 million sale of the grand regency for which the payment is tallied

Bank Rankings: Final Word

The final word on the banking sector comes from the 2007 bank supervision (PDF) report from the Central Bank of Kenya.

Notes:
– CBK ranks banks using CAMEL (capital adequacy, asset quality, management quality, earnings, and liquidity); 10 banks are strong (down from 13 in 2006), 27 satisfactory, 8 are fair and none were ranked marginal or unsatisfactory. Overall the banking sector totaling 951 billion in assets (~$14 billion)is satisfactory, but with 6 large banks controlling 58% of the industry
– Increase from 575 to 740 branches (293 in Nairobi) in 2007 [all province had increase in branches led by Nairobi (54) and rift valley (46) with only central bank with a decline in branches (-2)]
– Number of deposit accounts increased by 42% to 4.7 million
– Regulatory issues tacked include disaster management, IFRS, Basel II, licensing of shariah banks
– The sector employed 21,657 in 2007 (4727 management, 3865 supervisory, 12,773 clerical, 292 other) up from 15,568 in 2006
– Some of the (97) forex bureaus flout laws such as not recording transactions, money laundering, transfer of ownership, operating parallel hawalla accounts, liquidity
– Coming up: microfinance institutions will be licensed, credit reference bureaus will become operational, capital increases expected

And where are the 4.68 million (deposit) bank accounts kept?

Bank, No. of accounts, (no of branches)
Equity 1,840,332
Cooperative 556,073 (54)
Kenya Commercial 487,667 (135)
Family Finance 465,308
Barclays 428,531 (95)
National Bank of Kenya 233,026 (34)
K-Rep 169,796 (26)
Standard Chartered 131,618 (34)
Housing Finance 45,842 (10)
Stanbic 31,906 (8)
Diamond Trust 29,589 (13)
Others are Consolidated 25,078 (12), CBA 23,657 (17), I&M 22,053 (10), NIC 21,452 (15), Fina 14,446 (7), CFC 12389 (8), Transnational 11,053 (9), and Citibank 2,927 (3)