Monthly Archives: August 2008

Share Portfolio: August 2008


Drowning in Safaricom juice

8-8-08 is supposed to be a good luck date or something. 2008 has been a rough year for most companies since January. The Safaricom IPO was supposed to be the savior for investors, but has instead become an albatross on the Nairobi Stock Exchange

Heres’ my portfolio that has changed May 2008

The stable
Diamond Trust ↓
KCB ↓
Scangroup ↓
Stanbic (UG)↔
Safaricom ↓

What’s changed?
In: Safaricom
Out: Express, Sameer, Total
Increase: KCB, Safaricom
Decrease: —
Dividends Paid: KCB, Stanbic, Diamond Trust, Total, Scangroup
Unexpected gains (none) /loses everything else
Outlook: Shifted focus to banking and communications, and got out of manufacturing related stocks as the political and oil shocks continue to be felt through the economy. No foreseeable changes till next quarter, but will look at Kenya Airways if it dips lower.

Spotlight on foreign investors

after Morgan Stanley & Safaricom

Rift Valley Railways: This week as the patience of the governments of Kenya and Uganda reached new highs, local stakeholders finally got rid of the managing director. More stories are now coming out on the (lack of) financial strength of the backers of the railway. The East African newspaper has (consistently) had the best coverage of the railway management over the last two years.

About a year ago, the former MD gave a talk on the difficulties he faced in reviving the railway and the way forward for the 25 year program.

Tiomin is another ‘foreign investor’ who never had financing that was sufficient enough for them to launch their operations in Kwale, even after the government and the courts gave them go ahead

Zain is the new brand of the former Celtel Group that is expanding all over Africa. But according to their group financial results for the half year, Kenya is the only African country where they did not gain subscribers over the last year. At June ’08, Kenya had 1.9 million subscribers compared to 2.4 million in June 2007. Compare that to Uganda 1.8m (up 100%) and Tanzania 2.8m (up 48%). Half year revenue and loss was $79.4 million and $26.4m compared to %100m and a loss of $4.2 million at the same point in 2007 Safaricom is blamed for defending their market turf

Google have bought into Mobile Planet a leading local provider of value added mobile services (and also a Safaricom partner).

Nairobi Expense Account

Finally have one full year of data on expenses incurred. As part of an experiment I have tried to quantify daily spending over the last 365 days (and categorized them as follows)

Rent 37%, Investments 9%, Education 9% (bound to go up each coming year), Being a good guy 8% (Gifts 4%, Family 3%, Charity 1%), Fuel 7% (offset by more public transport use), Drinks 7% (socializing & entertaining), Dining 5%, Groceries 4% (not my docket) Communications 3% (take that Michael Joseph), Transport 3% (reading novels in the matatu), Utilities 3% (cost may double this year), Furniture 3%, Recreation 2% (I can afford to play more golf and get a decent handicap), Newspapers 2% (keeping up with politics & finance), Clothing 2% (FYI: Dr. Manu Chandaria only has 7 suits), Repairs 2%, Parking 1%, Personal 1%, Electronics 1%.

Old Mutual Toboa

Old Mutual Loosens Up Part II (Corrected, thanks Joyce)

A few years ago Old Mutual unit trusts in Kenya had a minimum entry amount of Kshs. 500,000 ($7,462). Last September, they dropped this to Kshs. 200,000 and now they have gone even lower.

Old Mutual Kenya has launched the Toboa Investment Plan which costs just Kshs. 7,500 ($112) per month to start other funds in the family are money market and balanced fund. Speakers at the launch included Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, NSE CEO Chris Mwebesa, CMA CEO Stella Kilonzo, the new boss of Old Mutual Kenya, and Laura Chakava head of Old Mutual Assets in Kenya – who all spoke of the need for affordable collective investment schemes in the country

– Mudavadi said that while local government act mandated that the town councils should have savings and capital funds to cater for unexpected expenses, these are largely ignored – with only 40 of the 175 councils able to comfortably pay their salaries. Also high savings are a part of Vision 2030, but Kenyan savings rates which were already below the average of other African countries, were dropping
– Mwebesa lamented the 1.5 to 1.8 million CDS account holders in the country; the number is un-serviceable (mailing budget for statements of the CDSC costs almost $1m per year – and this compared unfavorably to account holder level in South Africa (100,000) and Brazil (500,000). He said more people should access the market through collective investment schemes such as unit trusts but whose entry levels had been high (elitist) until now
– Kilonzo and Mwebesa both alluded to a recent survey on investors (June 2008) that showed the level of investor education in teh country was not good. Most people relied on the media for share investment information, and were ignorant of the risks of investing in shares.
– Chakava said Kenyans have appetite for investment as shown in the IPO queues and pyramid schemes. OM now gives them an affordable, professionally managed vehicle for investment beyond the unpredictable buy low, sell high mantra that most investors try and follow.

Toboa will invest in fixed income, equities and off shore. OM, which pioneered unit trusts in Kenya, manages about Kshs. 10 billion, but CIS only control about 2% of the NSE. Other OM trusts have an initial fee of about 3 – 7% and annual fee of 2%, the Toboa will probably be slightly higher than this and will use Posta (post office) outlets to collect payments.

Edit: Interesting discussion on Old Mutual investment plans from the Stockskenya forum