Monthly Archives: June 2008

Nairobi Barcamp 2008

Barcamp was held on Saturday at the Jacaranda Hotel: Hash has a list of links to various re-caps from other bloggers.

Here’s mine from the ½ day at the Barcamp:

ISP’s: Riyaz (of Wananchi) gave a talk on the coming changes in the ISP sector, as he talked about the various offering in the market now;
– Safaricom Michael Joseph is Mr. Kenya with 10 million ‘voters’ behind him has 700MB that costs 2,000 shillings ($31.25) (Not enough), and other bundles
– Celtel has EDGE for 3,000 not well marketed. Not as good not that it has many more users
– Access Kenya Access at Home has two rates one for the day (high traffic costs more) and another for night (much fewer people online, cheaper)
Wananchi offers 512K at 3,000 shared (Not dedicated which costs about 100,000 shillings – and said any ISP who promises you dedicated service at a sub-par cost is lying to consumers). They have Wimax for offices cost about 15,000, are going into cable TV (100+ channels) and will roll out to houses via cable which has higher capacity (separately they got overseas funding for their expansion so no need for a local IPO now )
– KDN have laid out more fibre than anyone in Kenya, serve a few hotspots but the butterfly does not fly
– Orange/Telkom Kenya. They pay very good salaries to engineers and other members and will roll out data service in a big way soon. They are on CDMA which means that they require fewer base stations (50 in Nairobi to 300 for Celtel and 400 for Safaricom, and will distribute the much awaited I-phone in Kenya and the region

Riyaz mentioned the need for Africa to not miss out on the ongoing technological revolution. He said companies like KDN and Wananchi have free hosting and are ready to partner with developers – he mentioned platforms like Jahazi (a hybrid application accessible from any computer – with chat, news reader and browser) and Zunguka – and challenged Kenyans to be ready to develop application and systems to take advantage of the expected submarine cable (TEAMS) once it lands.

Other platforms/applications I learned about include Helule, Peupe (from multiplechoices), Campus Vybe, Stockskenya, and Haiya

– Hash gave a session on blogger tips that was very engaging

– Interesting talks were given on the Kenya Internet Exchange Point which exchanges net traffic between local ISP’s (and which can be up to 90% or 50 MEGS? in peak time), the Kipsigis Heritage Foundation, Computers for Schools Kenya and Kenyan Poet talked about a local book sale company that accepted M-Pesa payments and had free delivery of books in Nairobi

– Paul Kukubo of the Kenya ICT Board talked about the Kenya Transparency Communication Infrastructure Project (KTCIP?), a partnership with the World Bank that had a grant of $1.5 million to go toward creators of local portals, content, and applications (such as commodity exchanges for agriculture). Awards will be in the range of $10,000 to $20,000 each and a formal announcement will be made later

Safaricom day 12
Deals 5,091 Turnover 438,560,608 ($6.85 million) Closing 7.70 High 7.80 Low 7.55 Last 7.70 Volume 56.9 million shares. Weaker tone. Buyers pulled back and Sellers chased down. 7.35/7.50 is support. We came down on much lower volume. Data and commentary from Rich.co.ke [Free real-time prices] – authorized NSE data vendor.

1000

Housekeeping

This is post number one thousand! Like Romario’s goals, some have been dubious, or forgotten, but many well received. It’s been a great 3 ½ year journey and thanks to all the people I have met, tips sent in, questions asked, frequent commenters et. al

Thank you to my sponsors – Mamamikes and Hisanet – whose support has been a helpful reward for the time put into this medium.

Great people I met this week through KBW, Skunkworks, Makutano, and thank for their time and chats (in no particular order) to AKS (of Rich.co.ke), Coldtusker, EGM, Hash, Intelligensia, Kenyan Pundit, Kirima, Mental, Nakeel, Riyaz, Shiroh Kenyan Poet, Sports Kenya, Alpha Quadrant, and all others from Barcamp, Safari Sevens, and other events this week. I’ll start twittering for Afromusing next.

Safaricom Day 11
Week three kicks off with the company still accounting for over 92% of the shares volume and 75% of the cash at the NSE: Deals 6,151, Turnover Kshs. 785.2 million ($12.27 million), Average 7.82, Closing price unchanged, High 7.90, Low 7.75, Last 7.85, Volume 100.4 million shares.
Rich.co.ke commentary: Market is in equilibrium for now. Short term Investors are still supplying the market just below 8. Very well supported here. I expect a break higher, once the market absorbs the balance. I cannot believe it will be very long because of the activity we have already witnessed.

What’s next
Up next after Safaricom is the KCB rights issue whose options began trading today and whose ‘prospectus is now (PDF)

Safaricom @ NSE Day 10

Deals 5,216
Turnover 480.5 million shillings [$7.62 million],
Average 7.84, Closing 7.80, High 7.90, Low 7.70, Last 7.85
Shares volume 61.2 million shares

Commentary: Still beneath 8.00, the key pivot. On classic chart theory, the recent price is creating a triangle pattern, which normally indicates an upcoming break [either side actually]. It’s well supported at 7.80; volumes are slowing so I expect a break to the upside. [Data courtesy of Rich.Co.Ke – NSE data vendor]

That’s the final piece from Rich.Co.Ke, after a great two weeks of the new share on the Nairobi Stock Exchange, on to other things from next week. How have NSE shares fared since Safaricom was listed?

Price change since June 9

56% Safaricom
6% Athi Rive Mining
2% NMG, Access Kenya
1% Housing Finance, Equity, D-Trust, BAT, Kenol, Olympia
= Kenya Airways, Jubilee, City Trust
-1% Barclays, Kakuzi, CFC, Standard Chartered, Express
-2% KCB
– 3% CMC
-4% NIC, Kenya Re, Standard, TPSEA, Sasini
-5% Unga, NBK
-6% EA Cables, Total, Mumias, ICDCI, Scangroup, Rea Vipingo
– 7% KPLC, Crown
– 8% EABL
-9 % Kengen
-14% Sameer
– 16% Eveready

Safaricom @ NSE Day 9

Deals 5,344
Turnover Kshs. 462.6 million ($7.34 million)
Average 7.86
Closing 7.85
High 7.90
Low 7.80
Last 7.85
Volume 58.9 million shares

Commentary: Very tight range. 8.00 remains the pivot. We are still distributing shares just below that level. Crossing 8.00 will be a bullish development. 7.50 – 7.70 is strong support. Data courtesy of Rich.Co.Ke [NSE data vendor]

Kutwa Tuesday – June 18

yes it’s Wednesday, but these relate to recent events

2008 Budget
– While the ICT sector was celebrating, a 25% tax on imported used computers was added on
– Wireless providers also pay a 10% tax, same as mobile companies (putting Telkom wireless on par with Safaricom and Celtel)
– Whistle blower on tax evasion may be entitled to 3% or 5% tax recovered by KRA. (but too late for David Munyakei)
– And from Tanzania; a brilliant idea that sounded dumb initially – at tax on loss making companies; It’s an alternative minimum tax for companies that report tax losses for three consecutive years – and will now amount to of 0.3% of their turnover. This is targeted at companies with high turnover that engage in tax avoidance could KRA adopt that later?

CFC Stanbic: In the CFC-Stanbic merger/takeover, shareholders voiced concerns that some CFC shareholders were getting paid and walking away from the company with cash. Now three of them – Gambit, Trogon, and Jani are voluntarily winding up

IPO refunds: The Central Bank is concerned about the slow pace of Safaricom refunds (statement (PDF))
– Yet there was there option in the initial prospectus for applicants to be refunded by M-pesa; which would have been ideal for thousands of minimum applicants [who are getting refunds of about 7,900 shillings or $127]
– The CBK statement mentions that you can send a message to confirm the status of your refund e.g. “CDS#ID#R” to 4009. (my message told me my cheque which I collected last week, was ready at the broker). What it doesn’t tell you is that the message costs 15 shillings or ~ 2 Safaricom shares at the going rate