Monthly Archives: January 2008

Alternative solution for Kenya election stalemate

The police are tired, protesters are tired, and many displaced people are stuck and starving as they contemplate rebuilding their lives. The citizens are ready to get started, but the government is not ready to get back. Citizens are out today wishing their banks would open to enable them to start school shopping for next week’s re-opening, but the government is the government is still on halt. The presidency is in doubt, and there is no cabinet in place.

Kenyans want to get back to ‘normal’ life and citizens in Nairobi are pretty much trying to do that. Solutions are being worked out, diplomat are talking to politicians, there are peace campaigns in the media – and some of us are fiddling and thinking at home while the fires cool outside.

what are some solutions? Some are not constitutionality possible

government of national unity – this seems to be thee consensus among bloggers and the diplomatic community – But no! We have had that since 2004 and it was about the business of government, not about national unity. Forcing two sides who don’t agree, and can’t stand each other to sit for an interim period is not going to work

interim government followed by new elections in a few months. These however cannot be overseen by the electoral commission of Kenya. In fact, after the 1982 coup attempt, the air force that instigated the coup were disbanded, and replaced by an 82 Air Force which ran for the next dozen years. Same thing should happen with the ECK. Also what will happen in those few months? Who will coordinate the government? Kenya’ can’t afford to remain in limbo for six months.

my thoughts: In primary school we learnt that there’s the executive (president & cabinet) judiciary, and legislature (parliament). Other bodies are the citizens (who voted about 4 million votes each for either Kibaki or Raila) and remain polarized, as are the media and religious leaders. The judiciary is universally seen as not being partial in this debate.

One institution we have intact and legitimate is parliament – whose members were gazetted this week. Parliament to be reconstituted – and they can then vote for the president.

The MP’s are our elected leaders and all (but 3) of the countries 210 constituencies have duly elected their representatives for the next five years. There elections are not in doubt for the most part and they are a legitimate group of people, many of them new to parliament for the first time. The vote can be in public or by secret ballot. And surely it will be easier to tally 210 votes than 10 million votes. This can be done in a week at most and will result in a legitimate president for the country.

With about ½ of parliament this would appear to favour the Orange side, but the race is open to all MP’s gazetted –not just Kibaki and Raila only. Any MP would be eligible, provided they meet other requirements so potential successors such as Mudavadi, Kalonzo, Saitoti, Uhuru, Karua, and Bifwoli could all run. The election would take a day, be under the full glare of media, and not require the electoral commission of Kenya.

The president elected by parliament – will then form the next government and appoint a cabinet of his liking. His first task of business will be national healing which will include resettlement of displaced persons, rebuilding small businesses affected by riots, relief efforts, rebuilding infrastructure, peacekeeping operations, mending international relations, etc.

The idea stems from novel I read recently, (can’t remember the title). Anyway, I’d dearly like to get back to posts on banking and stories like these, but until the politic is sorted out, they are not very useful to write about;

– Diamond Trust Bank: Taking regional banking to Uganda at no extra cost for cross-border transaction

– NIC desperate to go into stockbroking even with an imperfect deal – paid a lot, but don’t have full control over stockbroker

-Safaricom extended their cheap calls offer which expired on New Year’s Day to January 15. Many people are still on holiday, some unintended and will benefit from the extended period of ‘cheaper’ calls.

Elections derail Kenya’s Vision

some rambling thoughts to start the new year

It’s been a week since the election was held last Thursday and we are in a different world at the beginning of 2008.

Up till December 2007, the focus of Kenya was investing towards Vision 2030 – now we may have to find a new target to aim for – a Vision 2009, which is to perhaps to get the economy back to where it was in 2007.

The coverage by bloggers, Kenyan Pundit, Thinker’s Room and others has shown how we have receded from a generational vote (half the cabinet and sitting MP’s voted out – some after spending decades in parliament) to the equivalent of a – hate the term banana republic

Kenya has been there before, but was it necessary to go back? To be on CNN and Al Jazeera alongside Pakistan and Zimbabwe? If Ms. Bhutto had not been assassinated, Kenya would probably have been the top world story. This has now happened as Pakistan has reverted to status quo (with an election next month)- while the situation in Kenya has gotten worse each day.

The election was a spark; When one is car-jacked carjacked or caught in a Nairoberry situation, the smart advice, is to co-operate with the thugs – as a car or money is not worth your life. The election created such a feeling of being robbed in many parts of the country, but people fought back. They could not hit at the alleged (and likely) carjackers at the KICC, so they revenged against the agents of their perceived enemy (Kibaki, Raila, Moi, and Kivuitu) on the ground – their own neighbors.

Beyond Politics
From stories about the violence around the country, this has gone beyond any PNU vs. ODM, or Raila vs. Kibaki. It has pitted neighbors against each other, the have-nots against the haves, communities being targeted, revenge targeting, rapes, looting, highway extortion or murder gangs, and others acts verging on ethnic cleansing.

There have been simmering issues in the country – unemployment, poverty, landlessness, jealousy & envy, police crackdown on cartels in slums and the matatu sector, the government crackdown on pyramid schemes that had developed extensive networks of ‘investors and savers’ in many urban & rural areas, – all followed by opportunistic thieves (looters).

The bloodshed in Kenya is a result of simmering tensions in the country. It has been totally unnecessary, could have been avoided, but the spark/pressure cooker was triggered by the ECK decisions over the weekend.

consumers & the economy
My personal hardships pale in comparison to most Kenyans – but include; no petrol for car, January funds being used to stock up/buy essential dry foods, no fresh foods, no cash as ATM’s were empty/unplugged, lack of Safaricom airtime and Internet access (except by cell phone)

We as Kenyan citizens are not used to this – we have a culture of positive self development – that we have to improve our lives by investing, acquiring assets, educate our kids, – which probably informs a widespread government expectation that we will soon have to get back to work, and forget the politics.

But, on a national level, certain industries have taken a hit from which they are unlikely to recover this year (2008) – insurance, transportation, tourism, real estate & mortgages, banking sector, banking, real estate, the agricultural sector, infrastructure, insurance, and thousands of small businesses (SME’),

We can forget about 8% or 10% economic growth for 2008 and maybe the next two years as well. As banks, we tried to persuade companies (local and foreign) to commit to business decisions from October onwards – without much success; now their wait-and-see caution appears to have been the right thing, and they will probably take another six months to recommit. Also, the demand for credit to rebuild, both from the whichever ‘government’ and the private sector is likely to dominate the budget of June 2008.

There’s been a dead cat bounce, with some companies making a little money against the odds – Uchumi supermarkets, Safaricom, Taxi’s, private security companies, hotels (until they run out of supplies), and soon building & repair companies, but they will be the minority.

we need solutions

But don’t look for answers here:

– Police: They are tired and overworked. They have been on high alert since November tackling electioneering and extra security. They have done their best given the circumstances.
– Violence: does not solve anything
– international and diplomats – they seem to think political leaders have all the answers.
– Politicians: Everyone is calling on political leaders (Raila, PNU, ODM but especially Kibaki) to have dialog as a way to peace. While, as far as I know, no national leader has orchestrated any violence around the country, they are old hands (three years of constitutional war – remember ‘consensus building’) at sitting at the negotiating table and not resolving issues. They can wear out Nobel Prize winners and the international community with their bickering.
– The USA: As the WSJ story on the violence in Kenya shows, they have a history of siding with sitting regimes after unpopular elections e.g. Ethiopia, Nigeria
– The Kenyan court system

The answer is citizens themselves

Every day this week, I have heard & seen touching stories like these;
– Neighbors talking to one another about maintaining their many years of peace
– Neighbors setting up watch out groups and liaising with the local police
– Neighbors taking in and sheltering friends, relative and strangers
– Police officers talking down residents this morning who had hoped to march to Uhuru Park.
– Local leaders and MP’s talking to their constituents – preaching non violence.
– Neighbors standing together and ignoring the sparks from outsiders

I’d like to see the media highlight more of these, but such peaceful efforts may only put such proponents at risk. However today, all th media houses appear to have come out with a joint peace campaign message.

And whatever the outcome from the peace parley’s over the next month; I’ll make money with a Kibaki win, but I feel that the country needs Raila to lead and tackle some of the serious imbalances in this country. If Kenyans were rated among the most optimistic people in the world in 2003, how do we feel in 2008?

other losers & gains

Losers
– Kenyans; It was sad to watch the pre-elections stories on Al Jazeera and CNN breaking the election number down by ‘big’, ‘populous’ tribes of leaders, but the vote outcome showed that we still vote against tribal lines
– Kenya: The image of the country is shot. There are the huge land cruisers racing around Nairobi displaying their MEDIA and RED CROSS stickers and flags that grant immunity and safe passage in trouble spots. And will the Diaspora continue to invest in the country?
– President Kibaki whose 50 year political legacy is at stake
– Former president Moi; his sons lost and what were those ODM Win violence threats about?
– Majimbo proponents.
– The ECK and especially its Chairman whose popularity stemmed from the fact that Kenyans expected him as a righteous, religious man to do the right thing.
– Free secondary education promised by all the parties will likely be shelved, as will many other promises made in November/December.
– Nyerians who are the butt of jokes by their regional neighbors for their incompetence at ‘vote tallying’ (this could either be funny or not – I apologize if you’re offended)

Winners
– Kenya voters who turned out in record numbers, despite overwhelming difficulties, many voting for the first time. Unfortunately many of them have been stranded in the rural areas where they went to vote & enjoy Christmas.
– Safaricom and Celtel until their distribution networks dried up: – I thought Safaricom would be shut down, but it is so essential for communications (police use cell phones more than their call radios) and has kept families in touch. People have used M-Pesa and Mama Mikes to send money to stranded relatives even from abroad.
– NGO’s and civil society. They had become largely irrelevant under the NARC administration, but have become energized by the post-election outcome.
– Former president Moi: the sad events of the past week could have happened in 2003, but he took the mud and the humiliating defeat, and walked away (until recently) – allowing the pent-up emotion in the country to become euphoria and optimism.

Blog Review of 2007

some significant posts from the year gone

January
– Began with a review of 2006. As planned, in 2007 I did fewer posts, traded fewer shares, but did not acquire new tech skills.
– A bit of TMI, but getting hospitalized was a lowpoint
– Wrote about admiration of the work ethic of Asian businessmenand families. Made more poignant when you look at countries that have harassed such entrepreneurs.

February
– As more investors got tired with the hassle of share ownership, many were considering using unit trusts however a caution was the high cost of entry.
– Visit the technological graveyard and reviewed gadgets used and dumped in just a few years – including answering machines, pagers, car phones, cassettes, VHS etc.

March
– Review of mobile money transfer from Safaricom as a threat to debit cards and credit cards.
– Nation Business Daily was launched on March 7 – an all business weekday paper.

April
– The first Nairobi barcamp
– Discovered government payments online – that are larger than 5 million shillings ($71,430)
– Review of the new banks expected in 2007; but by year end only Family Bank and Gulf African had taken off.
– A visit to Masai Mara yieldedno pictures but great insights on the finances involved in the great park.

May
– Kenya Airways had difficult quarter following the loss of a plane and strong Kenya shilling. Poor customer service has since been an issue at the stretched airline since the crash and what does an even stronger shilling at the end of 2007 portend for their income position?
– Got a copy of the controversial media bill, and as predicted it was later passed by a vindictive parliament, before it was amended.
– How much does a week in Kampala cost?

June
– The first anniversary of the collapse of Uchumi and this was shortly followed by one of several unsuccessful initiatives to get shareholders to invest more funds into and revive the company.
– If you have access to some tip-earning positions (tip jar) in Kenya, you may not need to ask for bribes
– Attending TED Global – Arusha was one of the highlights of 2007 for me.
– Joined long-suffering shareholders at the National Bank AGM just as a new dawn beckoned for the bank.

July
– Is the diaspora responsible for the strong shilling and can anything be done about it?
– Attended a Talk by the MD of Rift Valley Railways on the hardships and steps to rehabilitate Kenya Railway network which had essentially collapsed.

August
– While majority of the country thinks parliamentarians are overpaid (also under-worked & under-taxed), the financial burden that their constituents place on them can leave them struggling for cash.

September
-Anti-corruption site, Wikileaks spotlights Kenya with revelations of Kroll report tracing embezzled funds abroad, money-laundering at Charterhouse bank and later the Ndungu report on land grabbing.

October
– Lamented my inability to view Youtube or TED Global videos, video or other vital online content owing to the slow internet connections we have.
– Attended a talk given by John Gakuo – the man largely responsible for cleaning up, making safe, and beautifying Nairobi over the last few years. The Town Clerk will have to do it all over again as hawkers, garbage, and petty crime all filtered back into the city of the December election period.
– Can we talk about something other than AIDS (in Africa)?

November
– Pondered if depositors in Shariah accounts enjoy the same protection (up to 100,000 shillings [$1,500] on their deposits in case a bank collapses as do other account holders.
– Watched the just released American Gangster and realized that we have several local examples i.e. drivers, clerks and other ‘lowly’ officials who later become business moguls.
– Witnessed the baptism of the new CFC/Stanbic bank as CFC shareholders endorsed the country largest banking merger.

December
– Did the first of three part review of the banking sector performance in 2007.
– Also reviewed predictions for 2007 as they appeared in the December 2006 Business Post magazine – which included a win, not a rigged/theft, of the presidential vote by the incumbent.

Plans for 2008
Travel more within Africa and explore the banking systems in other developing countries.