Monthly Archives: July 2007

Idea exchange: Call for papers

Nairobist is a great investment site with reports and charts like those in the business daily.

There as an investment report put out on Dyer & Blair that I was able to pull up from their site to read.

– They are also looking for a full time blogger – details here

– Anyone with a copy of the actual Kenya re prospectus, please email it to me? (investment bank analysis also welcome)

– Aly Khan Satchu, who used to post comments here, now has an occasional stock tips column in the Nairobi star newspaper. (His Web site)

Mostly Equity

Friday the 13th, and almost a year after Equity Bank listed on the NSE should have capped off a great week for Equity Bank – except for some MP’s in Parliament and anonymous letter circulating on the web. More on possible impact on share price and a great defense of the Equity’s significance to the country’s business and investment scene – but BDAfrica should probably mention that their CEO is an Equity director, in the same way CNN anchors mention their connection to Time Warner each time they report on the company.

more
– Equity is usually the first bank to announce quarterly results and we can expect more great numbers in the weeks ahead for June 2007.
– Alongside shareholder Britak, Equity will take up a 24.9% stake in Housing Finance. But the banking Act discourages banks owning shares in other banks (merging is ok, shareholding is not)
– Going international, Equity is poised to expand again, opening branches in Rwanda and Uganda
– Equity bank customers will also be able to access their funds at Nakumatt stores starting next week

More bank happenings

ABC joins the flat fee account race with a Kisima account (priced at 495 shillings)

Barclays has partnered with Nakumatt stores to launch a credit card. Barclays also has a branch on River Road I hear – a sight to see!

What can the Central Bank do about the strengthening shilling? With appreciating currencies, see what India did to help their exporters and Uganda did to curb currency speculators.

Consolidated bank has introduced solid loop product for businesses pursuing contracts/tenders/LPO’s

EADB has a line of credit from EXIM India to finance importation of eligible goods from India into Kenya, Uganda or Tanzania

Family finance aka Equity Blue opens a branch in Kapsabet

CDC opts out of the Housing Finance rights issueleaving the door open for Equity Bank and Britak

KCB now opens branches every Saturday from 9 to 12. The days of banks only opening on the first & last Saturday of the month is now history, with most now open every Saturday with longer hours, even on Sundays.

As the Telkom privatization kicks off, will several banks opt to get paid or sit back and convert their debt into Safaricom shares?

other economic developments
– Tata chemical (majority own of Magadi soda) plans to build another soda ash factory at Lake Natron, Tanzania- a move being opposed by conservation groups
– A new School of the Nations in Kitisuru
– Lake Naivasha resort and spa
– The government plans to set up a radioactive waste processing facility on Karen!
– The National social security fund plans to complete an 11 storey parking complex on Ngong road. It’s about time someone did something to ease the parking shortage esp. for upper hill workers

opportunities

Jobs – most from the daily papers this week

Chief financial officer at the Africa trade insurance agency . D/L is 22/7

Kenya capital markets authority: mangers [finance, corporate communication], assistant managers [financial analysis, enforcement,] officers [compliance (2), legal, surveillance, research] accountant, MIS systems analyst. Details at online and D/L is 25/7

Action research officer at decentralized financial services recruitment@kenyagatsby.org by

Join the East African development bank Young processionals program. Apply to
recruitment@eadb.org by 23/7

Business relationship manager at Equity bank. Apply to jobs@equitybank.co.ke by 20/7

First community bank: Financial controller, Managers (trade finance, internal audit, human resources, brand development, e-banking & cards, legal) Branch managers (Nairobi, Mombasa) Relationship managers (corporate banking), corporate credit analysts, retail credit analysts. Apply to fcb-vacancies@ahmedabdi.com by 25/7

HLB Ashvir: partners or senior managers. Apply to akassam@ashvir.com

Assistance credit manager at housing finance. Apply to human.recources@housing.co.ke by 20/7

Kencall: trainee managers, head of HR, transcribers (50) and other positions. Apply online.

Apply online for project planner at Kenya airways

Kenya ICT board: Marketing manager, financial management specialist, procurement specialists. Apply through Deloitte at esd@deloitte.co.ke by 27/7

Apply online for Financial analysts Kenya shares

Programme Manager for the Global Water Operators Partnership Alliance of UN-HABITAT . D/L is 4/8

General Manager at UUNET. Apply to jobs@biz-ideas.bix by 20/7

Independent financial adviser at Winton investments. Apply to jobs@winton-investment.com

CEO of the Youth enterprise development fund. Apply through Manpower associates by 25/7

aviation
– CMC aviation requires captains and first officers for dash 5 and dash 8
– Jetlink looking for captains and first officer for dc-9 aircraft

Bypass Kenya Re IPO?

The Kenya Re IPO opens in a week (July 18) and, it’s a good time to assess the potential gains for a retail investor who subscribes.

While the prospectus is not yet out, all signs are that this will be a massive Kengen-like IPO, a quasi-monopoly with good growth prospects & profits that will stir the investment market. (I was wrong on most counts about the Eveready IPO)

But unlike Kengen, corporate and institutional investors have been allocated a good chunk of the cake, which they won’t have to fight over with retail investors. So what’s left for retail?

56,000 shareholders: According to reports, retail investors have been allocated a pool of 47%. That comes to 112.8 million shares of the 240 million shares offered. So 56,400 is the expected number of
retail investors [buying 2,000 shares at 9.50 each = Kshs 19,000 ($283)]. But Kengen drew many more than that and these were retail investors applying for several thousand shares (above the Kengen minimum of 5,950 shillings). And with so many pyramids schemes crashing down, those lucky to have got any cash out will hope to repeat the magic rise of Kengen on day one on listing. Plus commercial banks are still flush with cash and will probably offer more loans to buy shares.

oversubscribed = refund: budget a minimum two hours for queuing, filling out forms. IPO opens on July 18, closes on July 31. Then wait for about a month, till mid-August for results with the new shares expected to list towards month end (August 25 or September. Depending on the retail surge, one can expect between 1/3 and ½ of the shares applied for – meaning you pay Kshs. 19,000 for 2,000 shares but end
up with 700 shares worth Kshs. 6,650. This is followed by another hour visit to the stockbroker to trace the inevitable refund cheque in September.

Is it worth it? Probably, for Kenya Re. But why not sit out the Kenya Re IPO and wait for the shares to list at the end of August? The price will have changed, but if it’s around 15 shillings, then you can buy as much as you want just by calling your
stockbroker and placing an order – by passing the headache of an IPO? 19,000 shillings will not earn much in any savings account, but at least the money is
available and within reach – as perhaps other share prices will drop within reach as investors cash out to buy into Kenya Re.

Still, it is insulting that some shareholders think of retail investors as emotional cattle who buy and sell on whims and don’t do any research and analysis. And
we don’t have the extra privilege granted to institutions who, this time, won’t have to pay any money until they get their share allocation confirmed.

Diaspora impacting the Shilling

Another group trooped to the Governor of the Central Bank, lamenting about the strength of the Kenya shilling against the dollar, and its negative impact on exports – asking for intervention, or exchange rate controls to weaken the shilling.

But is it possible and how? According to economist Dr. David Ndii, the Central Bank is largely unable to control currency and inflation rates. Inflation because a large part of the economy is informal (and unbanked), and the shilling because of remittances.

Remittances grew from ¼ to almost 1/3 of export earnings and grew by 43% compared to exports which grew by 13% from 2005 to 2006.

So unless authorities crack down on money transfers, or asks Kenyans in the diaspora to channel their funds through more productive avenues and investments, this is likely to continue. And with Equity bank and Safaricom poised to enter the international money transfer business, the reach of the diaspora to rural Kenya is about to take another leap forward.

Ultimately we all hope the strong shilling can lead to a lower fuel bill for the country ad petroleum prices impact so many aspects of the economy including the cost of production for exporters.

Opportunities
most from the daily papers this week

Executive secretary at the Africa capacity building foundation based in Zimbabwe. D/l is 31/8

Dozens of executive positions at the new Africa financial corporation to be headquartered in Lagos. . Details at KPMG site and d/l is 15/7

Baker tilley merali CPA: audit manager, senior audit professionals. Apply to reception@meraliscpa.com

Senior advisor Kenya at Danida. Apply online

Governance advisor Kenya, at DFID – the British government department for international development. Apply to dfidgov@adeptsystems.co.ke by 23/7

Elizabeth Glaser pediatric aids foundation: finance/HR manager, finance/admin assistant. Apply to mkihoro@pedaids.org by 23/7

Non executive board chairman at the Emerging Africa infrastructure fund. D/L is 31/7

Express advertising: account director, PR & events manager, media manager. Apply to Monty@expressad.co.ke by 19/7

First Community Bank – Kenya’s first Islamic bank. Vacancies include head of risk management, head of corporate banking, head of retail banking, head of operations, head of treasury. Apply to fcb-vacancies@ahmedabdi.com by 20/7

Industrial promotion services aka IPS: business process re-engineering managers /officers and
food sector business development officers. Apply to HR@ipskenya.com by 30/7

Kenya airways has finally embraced the online application process. Current vacancies include IS officer, automations service manager, licensed engineer, technicians as well as pilots and cabin crew.

General manager at Kisii bottlers limited. Apply to jobs@afr.ko.com by 18/7

Managing editor – quality & product development at KTN. d/l is 12/7

International jobs can be viewed at the Kenya Ministry of Foreign Affairs website

Nation media group. Writers, also Internet sub editor.

TNT international: sales account manager, sales administrator, IS administrator. Apply to
hr@tntkenya.com by 20/7

Senior malaria advisor at USAID. check online and d/l is 20/7

World Bank young professionals program d/l is 15/7

Urgent need for Sub Cable

Whether it will be EASSy or TEAMS, the urgent need for East Africa to have a submarine cable will become apparent within a few years.

The 2006 merger of Intelsat and PanAmSat, creating the worlds’ largest satellite provider, will have profound implications for Africa which is estimated to be 80% dependent on satellite communications. Higher costs can be expected from the giant company once existing agreements expire and ISP’s will have no choice but to pass these own to consumers.

The government of Kenya broke away from other African countries (in EASSy) and has committed to the TEAMS project, budgeted at $100 million. It committed to pay $15 million this financial year and has contracted Standard Chartered bank to raise additional funding from ICT operators in the private sector.