Category Archives: Vision2030

Socio-Economic Atlas of Kenya

The Socio-Economic Atlas of Kenya provides a visual look Kenyan statistics, depicting the national population census by county and sub-location and showing the future of Kenya for Vision 2030 and planning purposes. The Atlas booklet that was for sale as a hardback (but also available as a PDF), was produced by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics and first published in 2014. 

Excerpts

Young population of voters: There are both advantages and disadvantages to Kenya’s youthful population. It represents potential for the future, but it also increases dependency rates and reduces economic participation in the present. Employment creation will be the key to tapping the potential of the expected future labour force and future market opportunities. This implies that job creation is not only a national priority as stipulated in Kenya’s Vision 2030, but that it also requires efforts at the sub-national level; because grossly uneven population distribution will provoke major and increasing migration flows when today’s children and youths reach adulthood. This points to the major role that devolved governance will play in harnessing these potentials and facing the challenges posed by high proportions of young people in the population.

Female economic power: The 2009 census indicates that females head 32% of households in Kenya. This means that females head 2.8 million households, or one in every three. In a basically patriarchal society that assigns household leadership to one person and one gender, this is a high value. It implies that men are absent in one-third of all Kenyan households; in these households, women make the majority of the decisions concerning household matters and livelihoods.

Inequality at the Coast: Kenya’s overall Gini coefficient is 0.45. This value is comparatively high, higher than in neighbouring countries, and means that inequalities are quite pronounced at the national level. This reflects the economic diversity in the country, in particular the gradients between urban economic hubs and rural areas and between high-potential agricultural areas and very poor semi-arid and arid regions. The value is also typical of a nation on the verge of becoming a transition country, exhibiting rapid growth in economic centres and expanding secondary and tertiary sectors.

 

Purchasing Power is in towns: In 2006 prices, Kenya’s mean per person monthly expenditure for goods and services is KSh 3,430. If a cumulative inflation rate of 93% is applied in line with 2013 prices, this national mean rises to KSh 6,620. By this estimate, an average Kenyan family of five with two parents and three school-age children spends about KSh 26,000 per month on goods and services in 2013 prices. This average monthly estimate includes all monetary expenditures as well as consumption of self-produced farm, garden, and livestock products according to their market value. But the clearest pattern to emerge is that of the rural–urban divide. 

The map illustrates how virtually all of Kenya’s major towns exhibit higher mean per person monthly expenditures than their rural environs. The divide is further underscored by the fact that the two highest classes of mean per person monthly expenditure – i.e. KSh 6,000 to 10,000, and more than KSh 10,000 (in 2006 prices) – are found almost exclusively in urban settings. By contrast, the expenditure classes between KSh 1,000 and 3,500 are mostly found in rural sub-locations. This emphasizes the role of towns as national and regional economic hubs featuring growing secondary and tertiary sectors and the bulk of formal employment opportunities leading to continued rural–urban migration. At the same time, it is interesting to note that the phenomenon of slums in the major cities is not visible in the rural–urban graph: The very lowest expenditure class (below KSh 1,000) is almost exclusively found in rural settings. Multidimensional poverty measures could help to better capture poverty in urban areas.

Base Titanium – Kenya’s Flagship Mine

Base Titanium was recently made a Kenya Vision 2030 Flagship Project for the mining sector and continue to share updates as part of their commitment under the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI).

For the financial year which ended in  June 2017, they had sales of $215 million, and a net profit of $21 million, compared to a loss of net loss of $20 million the year before. They reduced net debt by $76 million during the year, then reduced it further by $12 million to stand at $87 million at the end of the September 2017 quarter. Base Titanium are still owed $21 million in VAT tax refunds and all payments are still done to the national government though Kenya’s new mining law (currently in limbo) calls for separate payments to be made to the county government and the community. They are also still paying royalties at the rate of 2.5% while accruing another 2.5% in anticipation of the government changing this to 5%.

Base Titanium now moves into a second phase of production of the Kwale mineral sands project, investing $30 million in a more intense process of increased mining capacity, as they aim to maintain production of 450,000 of ilmenite, 88,000 tons of rutile and 33,000 tones of zircon a year even as they also target to retain their safety performance record which saw no lost time injuries in the last quarter. 

Base Titanium will also shift to a different field (South Dune) at Kwale in two years when the current field (Central Dune) is exhausted and which they have commenced rehabilitating the depleted areas with vegetation. 

They are also waiting to commence more exploration in Tanzania, in December, and in Kenya, in 2018. In Tanzania, where they hold 5 prospecting licenses, they await availability of drilling rigs while in Kenya they await completion of a report by a new mineral rights board for the Cabinet Secretary for Mining to approve further exploration in Kwale. 

Base Titanium has also spent $10 million ( – about Kshs 1 billion) on the community development projects. These include educational support that has seen 1,000 get scholarships in Kwale, while in agriculture, they are working with the national and the Kwale county government to assist over 900 local farmers and groups grow crops like potato, sorghum, and even cotton that is exported to Bangladesh for garment-making.

 Tatu City Gets Muddy 

Last Friday saw an extraordinary press event in Nairobi. Stephen Jennings, co-founder of Renaissance Group, called a press conference along with the new Chairman of Tatu City, Pius Ngugi, and the acting CEO Anthony Njoroge.

Jennings said that while he and his foreign investor partners have contributed over $100 million that so far has gone into, long-delayed, Tatu City since launch , the local shareholders, mainly Vimal Shah and Nahashon Nyagah, have not put a single shilling into the eight year old project, and have instead worked to frustrate the project through direct and indirect court cases, the latest of which came with a move to freeze the bank  accounts of the ongoing project – and which will stop their payments to staff, contractors and for taxes due. He challenged the duo to pay the bills for the project, now that they have frozen the accounts.

Tatu City's Stephen Jennings and Pius Ngugi He said they are not serious business partners, have no shareholding or directorship and have been disruptive for unclear reasons.  Jennings said that Shah and Nyagah have a personal business dispute in Mauritius that has carried over into Kenya resulting in them trying to extort Tatu City.

Jennings regretted that there have been allegations with racist undertones that he is a Russian and that Russian money is forcing out local shareholders – noting that he’s not Russian and there is no Russian money in Tatu City. He said that through Renaissance, they were among the first to the ‘Africa Rising’ narrative ten years ago and have published over 3,000 research reports and a book to back that.

He said $100 million has been put in to what can easily be a $1 billion project that will create thousands of jobs and house 60-80,000 people.  Already 50% of residential properties are sold, along with 80% of commercial and industrial ones and infrastructure is still being put in place.

He said the signals are bad for other potential foreign investors, if such a serious project, could be sabotaged by local minority partners. Tatu which was their first City Project has now fallen behind other African ones.

Tatu City & Vision 2030

Tatu City was endorsed as a Kenya Vision 2030 project and an event was held in Nairobi to celebrate the signing and also clear up some misconceptions about the project.

The Future is Urban Mugo Kibati said urbanization is the future, the world over, and it will happen without proper planning, Vimal Shah said that while Kenya is currently about 30% urbanized, by 2030 Kenya (which is just 212 months away), this will have risen to an urbanized population of about 75% urbanized. Are they going to stay in poorly planned cities or better articulated developments?

What is it? Dr. Gituro Wainaina, who is one of the Vision 2030 secretariat directors said that the message must get out that Tatu is not a gated community, it is where you work or where you sleep. Lter it was mentioned that it was a brand new city, that will complement, not replace Nairobi, and at completion will be worth $5 billion – the single biggest FDI injection. It looks new and different form other projects (every toilet in Tatu City will flush with recycled water. Every roof should harvest rainwater!) and the Ruiru Council has embraced the project, are building capacity to manage with Tatu and are are going to reap the benefits of the project, which might lead other municipalities and counties to do that.

Vision 2030 is not about Government Projects: Mugo Kibati said that Vision 2030 is not about government projects and they envision that the majority of projects will be by private investmentors or government partnerships with the private sector. He said that the Government is only meant to be a facilitator that provides incentives – adding that with Tatu on one hand and the government’s planned technology city in Konza on the other, he is watching the race to see which will complete theirs faster – the public sector or the private sector?

Nairobi needs 10 Tatu Cities: Tatu will do create 3,000 houses a year in a country that has an annual housing shortage of 35,000 to 40,000 per year. Nyagah said that Nairobi needs another 10 Tatu’s to barely satisfy the demand, and that they welcomed other mega housing developments that have been inspired such as Migaa, Thika Greens, and on other towns like Eldoret (Sergoit)

Is Tatu is Destroying Farmland? At a time when the country can’t feed itself adequately, this has been partly attributed to the use of land has been attributed to land use Mugo Kibati said that current 60% farmers in Kenya, are feeding about 80% of the citizens. In future, the government would have to make some harsh decisions about denoting land as agrarian, commercial, residential etc. (in a Land Use Masterplan). Having a 70% urban population in 2030 will still leave 30% in rural areas which is still high. The current subdivision of arable land is un-sustainable, and the government has to get more people out of farms and find them employment in other sectors; this will leave arable farming to farmers, who will mechanize, and invest in agro business; i.e. Farming should be done by professionals, as it is in developed countries like the US that are able more than feed their countries and export surplus with less than 5% of thir population being farmers.

M-Tatu Mortgage?: Nyagah challenged James Mwangi, the absent chairman of vision 2030 (who’s also the Equity bank CEO), to create to create a mortgage, where someone can be repay a daily amount e.g. kshs 500 per day and buy a house and name it M-Tatu.

Shared Technology Opportunities in Kenya Government

One of the platforms that the Kenya ICT Board is spearheading a shared services platform/master plan for the Government.

They have studied the concept in the US, Australia and at large computer companies. They also appointed a consultant firm, Accenture, to carry out an assessment, and this week Accenture released a report this week on shared services (back office functions) use at various government levels.

The findings were rather harsh and included:
– GoK is not well positioned to support Vision 2030 through its platform, and for all the talk, IT spending is not a priority in government,
– Low level of staff, low ability to execute projects,
– Lack of standard process automation across government arms, few processes are automated – still heavy manual work, and use of outdated technology

– Kenya spends 70% of IT funds on hardware (which can go out of date quite fast), with very little spent on people and software. This is below world standard which Accenture defined as near – 20% spent on hardware, 40% people, 19% software, and 20% outsourcing
– Most IT projects are developed with silos within the different ministries or local authorities even within ministries and even if the current 80 large ongoing tech projects were completed, this would not lead to share services, e.g. because databases cannot talk to each other

Nevertheless Accenture had bright spots & recommendations:

– The low level little process automation presents a lot of opportunity for private sector to work with GoK in shared services
– Best practices can be driven by single entity
-The shared service goals can be achieved not by increasing current IT expenditure, but by refocusing it on items like automation and standardization
– By developing IT career paths, Government can have access to the better people in IT
– Accenture mapped out some current government process like obtaining a birth certificate and getting a passport – to the deal target scenario using shared services approach.
– The cloud can be used to leapfrog other governments – i.e. enable citizens to use mobile phone and access services without visiting a government office
– There are other opportunities for the private sector to develop end user services, applications, architecture, and capabilities.

Other Comments
– Information & Communications PS Bitange Ndemo said they had set out to fulfill presidential target to digitize four processes by this June 2011 – and mentioned the judiciary, land ministry and state law office (also Google Books has digitally archived the Government Bible – with 100 years of the Kenya Gazette now online)
– Office of the President Administrative Secretary Sam Mwale it is government policy to share services, and asked that more services be translated to Kiswahili which is understood by the majority of Kenyans. He also said that for shared services to work, it was important to demonstrate to government staff that the services work, that they are in charge and they have not lost their jobs.
– Catherine Gitau, the Director of E-Government, said government departments will have to share infrastructure, services, and must also share data (Article 35 of the new Kenya Constitution notes that the state shall publish and publicize any important information affecting the nation, and every citizen has the right to information held by the state)