Category Archives: NSE portfolio

NSE Shares Portfolio February 2016

Comparing performance to last quarter and a year ago, the portfolio is up 0.3% in the last three months, while the while the NSE 20 share index is down 5% since November 2015. Compared to a year ago, the portfolio is down 21% while the NSE is down 29%.

The Stable

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Atlas –
Barclays ↓
Bralirwa (Rwanda) –
Centum (ICDCI) ↓
CIC Insurance ↓
Diamond Trust –
Equity ↓
KCB ↓

Fahari –
Kenya Airways ↓
Kenya Oil ↑
NIC ↓
NSE ↓
Stanbic (Uganda) ↓
TPSEA ↓
Unga ↓

Summary: Another quarter when everything is down, except Kenol, while a few shares were  unchanged including Bralirwa, Fahari (I-Reit)  and the now dormant Atlas.

In: Serena
Out: None
Increase: None
Decrease: None
Best performer: Kenol (up 21%)
Worst performer: NSE, Serena, KQ (~all down 10%)

Unexpected Events:

  • The low uptake of the Stanlib Fahari I-REIT which showed that NSE investors are risk-adverse, and won’t flock to new products like REIT’s and derivatives.
  • Going back on the East African dream of cross border investing, there’s much difficulty in cashing a Rwanda dividend cheque (Bralirwa) as many banks still don’t accept Rwanda Franc cheques and KCB which used to have over-the–counter encashing for the Bralirwa dividend cheques (drawn by KCB Rwanda) does not have the facility this year. Stanbic Kenya and Stanbic Uganda have never had any cooperation in that regard as well.
  • The losses and corporate fallout at Uchumi, Mumias, Imperial Bank, and Kenya Airways that were discovered after their high-profile, long-serving, CEO’s departed.

Looking Forward to:

  • Mobile money treasury bonds
  • Kengen rights issue

 

Shares Portfolio: November 2015

Comparing performance to last quarter and a year ago, the portfolio is down 10% in the last three months, while the while the NSE 20 share index is down 4% since August 2015, but down 23% since last November.

The Stable

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Atlas ↓
Barclays
Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↓
Centum (ICDCI) ↓
CIC Insurance ↓
Diamond Trust ↓
Equity ↑
KCB ↓
Kenya Airways ↓
Kenya Oil ↓
NIC ↓
NSE ↑
Stanbic (Uganda) ↓
TPSEA ↓
Unga ↓
Summary
  • For the second quarter, in a row, everything is down, except the NSE share price itself, followed by Equity Bank which is marginally!
  • In: Barclays, Stanlib Fahari (I-Reit)
  • Out: Safaricom, Scangroup, Mumias
  • Increase: Equity Bank, NIC
  • Decrease: None
  • Best performer: NSE (up 20%)
  • Worst performer: Atlas (down 73%) ,Bralirwa, Kenya Airways.
  • Unexpected Events: (1) Atlas bankruptcy, though the warning signs were there with the slowdown of exploration activities. It is mainly owed money by Tullow Oil and the Geothermal Development Company (GDC) (2) The collapse of Imperial Bank, which has had a knock on effect on other bank shares. (3) Kenya Airways half year results.

 

Shares Portfolio May 2015

Comparing performance to last quarter and a year ago.

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Compared to last quarter, the portfolio is down 3% while the NSE 20 share index is down 10% since February 2015.

 

The Stable
Bralirwa (Rwanda)  ↓
Centum (ICDCI)  ↓
Diamond Trust  ↓
Equity –
KCB  ↓
Kenya Airways  ↓
Kenya Oil  ↓
Mumias  ↓
NSE ↑
Safaricom ↑
Scangroup ↓
Stanbic (Uganda) ↓
Unga ↑

Changes
In: Equity Bank
Out: None
Increase: Kenya Airways, Kenol, Mumias
Decrease: None
Best performer: Safaricom (up 11% this quarter)
Worst performer: Kenya Airways (down 34%) , Mumias  (down -33%)

Looking Forward To:
– Bank profits & dividends from banks (KCB) and Safaricom.
– More M&A deals from Centum after their bond

Other Events:

– Safaricom’s super profits continued, and defied expectations of many, with profits going up 38% to $336 million. The company is crucial to the Kenya government in that will pay almost $600 million in taxes & licences fees this year, plus a Kshs 9 billion ($100 million) dividend that works about to about 10% of the country’s tax revenue!

–  A Kenya Airways full year loss expected to be announced this month amid other restructuring, debt, bailout, partnership (is the KLM shareholding good or bad?) discussions. There was a comment from a KQ executive who said that “our profit on each passenger can’t buy a good cup of coffee”.

– Just across the border, in Rwanda, was the IPO of  Crystal Telecom, in which 20% of MTN Rwanda was sold to the public and will be listed on the Rwanda stock exchange. The IPO which closed last week, cost a minimum investment of $150, and was open to all East African citizens.

Shares Portfolio February 2015 

Compared to last quarter, the portfolio is up 26% while the NSE 20 share index is up 3% since November 2014.
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The Stable
Bralirwa (Rwanda) 
Centum (ICDCI) —
Diamond Trust —
KCB ↑
Kenya Airways ↑
Kenya Oil ↑
Mumias ↑
NSE ↓
Safaricom ↑
Scangroup ↑
Stanbic (Uganda) ↓
Unga ↑
Changes
In: None
Out: None
Increase: None
Decrease: None
Best performer: Mumias Sugar  (up 58% this quarter), then Kenya Airways  (38%)
Worst performer: Stanbic – Uganda (down -5%) , NSE (-4%)
Looking Forward To
– Bank profits & dividends from banks (KCB, Diamond)
– More M&A deals from Centum

Shares Portfolio: November 2014

Comparing shares to last year and last quarter, the portfolio is up 7% in three months (excluding new investments), while the NSE 20 share index is up is up 0.5% since August 2014.

The Stable

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Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↓
Centum  (ICDCI) ↑
Diamond Trust ↓
KCB ↓
Kenya Airways ↓
Kenya Oil ↑
Mumias Sugar
Nairobi Shares Exchange ↑
Safaricom ↑
Scangroup ↓
Stanbic (Uganda) ↑
Unga ↑
Changes
In: Mumias Sugar
Out: None
Increase: Kenya Airways, KCB, Scangroup
Decrease: None
Best performer: NSE Kenya (up 121% since IPO), Centum (16%), (Unga 14%)
Worst performer: Kenya Airways (down 22%) Bralirwa (down 19%)
Unexpected Events:
– Bralirwa share dip which has been linked to the bonus share
– KQ’s loss in the half year. Amid the arrival of a half-dozen new Boeing 787 Dreamliners and other aircraft and long serving CEO Titus Naikuni stepping down there was one more shock from the airline in the form of a half year loss of Kshs 10.45 billion ($116 million)
– Are Kenya bank stocks overvalued as a Citi report says?
– Listings by Kurwitu Ventures (at Kshs 1,500 per share, which was higher than British American Tobacco that’s at 904 now) and Flame Tree (FTG) in recent weeks in the GEMS category of the NSE.
– Both Equity and Housing Finance forming holding companies and transferring banking and mortgage business respectively to the new group parents.
– The vicious fallout between BritAm and Cytonn.
Looking forward to
– Unga’s acquisition of Ennsvalley, a bakery worth Kshs 500 million ($5.55 million)
– Uchumi’s rights issue to raise Kshs 895 million ($10 million) by offering shareholders 3 shares for every 8 held at Kshs 9 per share, with the funds to be used for expansion in East Africa and refurbishment of stores.
– Seeing how Mumias Sugar shares proceed..having gone from highs of Kshs 40 in years past, to 1.4 this month.