Category Archives: Kenya real estate

Nairobi Supermarkets & Mall Moments

It has been an interesting few days in the Nairobi mall and supermarkets space.

It started off with a notice on social media from the Junction, a 26,000 square meter mall stating that Nakumatt had surrendered their space at the mall. Nakumatt was the anchor tenant of the mall which opened in 2004 and now has  115 stores.

But Nakumatt which has been having cash flow and supplier payment issues, and which have all resulted in  most common everyday products like fresh foods and supplies missing from their store shelves, then put out a statement alluding to ongoing talks with the Junction mall and their suppliers with advanced plans to restock their shelves.

Later on the same day Nakumatt got a court injunction temporarily stopping their removal from the Junction and issued another more formal statement about how the Junction management had tricked them and illegally took over their space after they had paid Kshs 20 million, hurting their image in the mind of employees, suppliers, and customers.

Knight Frank who manage the Junction also issued a statement acknowledging the court order, which they would follow, but stating that Nakumatt had signed a surrender on 15th September and then failed in its payment obligations and had not documented a commitment to restock the shelves by the surrender date.

Tuesday also saw an announcement by Majid Al Futtaim that they would be opening their third Carrefour store in Kenya at TRM (Thika Road Mall),  a 28,000 square meter mall on Thika Highway. The space had been surrendered by Nakumatt just two weeks before that. Carrefour operates stores at the Hub in Karen and Two River malls.

The release also contained some interesting stats on suppliers and employment:

– We are looking to stock over 30,000 items at the hypermarket, including fresh produce, groceries, a fresh bakery, and a butchery
– (We) work with over 640 suppliers, local manufacturers, producers, and farmers, which contribute to the overall economic growth in Kenya both directly and indirectly. Only one of the suppliers is foreign.
– The opening of the new branch at TRM will boost the staff employment count at Carrefour in Kenya to 800, with 600 already working at the other two branches located at The Hub in Karen and the Two Rivers Mall.

There has been quite a bit of clamour by customers of Carrefour, which was becoming quite crowded at Karen on month end, to expand.

An equity deal to rescue Nakumatt deal seems to have floundered, and a new announcement about ongoing discussions for a management partnership arrangement  between Nakumatt and a rival supermarket chain Tuskys have not inspired the confidence of supplier and financiers of Nakumatt.

Other believed beneficiaries of Nakumatt surrendering any more stores are expected to be Naivas and Khetia. This week also saw Naivas launched Naivas Pay in partnership with Interswitch. The launch was a Ciata Mall, at their store in a space Naivas took over after it had been previously booked by the management of Uchumi.

Uchumi itself is in the process of concluding a deal to raise Kshs 3.5 billion from a  private equity investor.

Another interesting concept in the supermarket space, is Seven 2 Seven, a franchise of mini market stores that only stock fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and serve as agents of some banks. They are on track to have 100 stores in Machakos, Kajiado, Nairobi, Kiambu, Muranga, Nyeri, Embu, Kirinyaga, Meru and Nakuru counties by year-end.

Cement, Sugar, Governments contribute to Bad Debts in 2017

In a press conference this week the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) governor spoke about non-performing assets i.e bad debts and highlighted manufacturing, real estate and, trade sectors.

This comes after the half-year 2017 bankers credit survey released by the CBK noted that the ratio of gross non-performing loans to gross loans increased from 9.5 percent in March 2017 to 9.91 percent in June 2017. The increase in the gross non-performing loans was mainly attributable to a challenging business environment

  • Non-Performing Loans: Generally, the commercial banks expect an increase in the levels of NPLs in the third quarter of 2017 with 42 percent of the respondents indicating so. This expected rise in NPLs is attributed to the industry’s perception of increased political risk in light of the upcoming general elections.
  • Credit Recovery Efforts: The banks expect to tighten their credit recovery efforts in eight out of the eleven sectors.

The Governor said that in manufacturing, the bulk of the Kshs 5 billion of bad debts increase could be attributed to a sugar company, two cement companies, and a plastics firm, while  In real estate, Kshs 3.9 billion was due to two projects – one a golf course, and the other was a housing one. But he added that, for all of these projects, the banks that had financed them were working to resolve the loan performance.

On trade, he said that Kshs 2.8 billion increase of bad debt loans was spread across many banks and that a lot of it relates to delayed payments by government – both national and county ones – to suppliers.

Reading the Tea leaves at Centum, Kenya Airways, Safaricom – Part III

Following up from last year, three companies that had their year-end in March 2017 – Centum, Kenya Airways, and Safaricom have just published their annual reports. Later this month, they will all have shareholders annual general meetings – Safaricom’s will be on September 15, Kenya Airways, who already had an EGM will have their AGM on 22 September, while Centum’s will be on September 25th at Two Rivers, Nairobi.

Notes from the annual reports.

Centum:

  • Has a massive 234-page annual report (up from 192 pages), and the company has 37,163 (last year 37,325) shareholders. 44 shareholders have more than 1 million shares.
  • Board changes at the AGM: New chairman Donald Kaberuka will meet shareholders, and this year Henry Njoroge Imtiaz Khan and Dr. James McFie all step down from the board.
  • Shareholders will also be asked to approve the incorporation of ten Ramani Arch companies as Vipingo subsidiaries, Rehati Holdings, Zahanati Holdings Greenblade Growers, and a Greenblade EPZ.
  • Centum will pay shareholders Kshs 1.2 per share dividend (up from 1.0 last year)
  • Had 86 billion assets. Profit was Kshs 1.5 billion for the year then added with other gains from value changes, this reached Kshs 6.1 billion.
  • Their auditors, PWC, flagged issues like loan impairment at Sidian, loans at Chase Bank, the value of unquoted assets, the value of goodwill, and the value of investment properties.

    Centum shareholders to meet at Two Rivers.

  • Centum has 35 billion worth of subsidiaries including Two Rivers Development (50% of lifestyle centre and 100% of water, ICT, apartments, and phase 2) , GenAfrica Asset Managers (73%), Almasi Beverages (52% of Investment holding company for Mount Kenya Bottlers, Kisii Bottlers and Rift Valley Bottlers), Bakki Holdco (Sidian Bank) and Vipingo Estates
    Associates: Centum sold off their entire 26.4% of KWAL (for Kshs 1.1 billion) while at Longhorn they raised their stake to 60%.
  • Unquoted investments include General Motors East Africa (GMEA – estimated Kshs 3 billion worth), Nas Servair (estimated Kshs 765 million) and Nabo. NAS, where they own 15% opened three Burger King restaurant franchise outlets in Kenya. Centum still owns 17.8% of GMEA after Isuzu bought a majority 57% stake from GM. They also own 25% of Platinum Credit that provides loans to civil servants and has 80,000 customers.
  • Their Lulu Field acquired 14,000 acres in Masindi Uganda for agriculture.
  • They own  27.6% of Nairobi Bottlers which accounts for 47% of the Coca Cola sold in Kenya.
  • In energy, they own 37% of Akira geothermal and 51% of Amu Power.
  • Managers earn more from performance bonuses than salaries.
  • They have borrowed Kshs 1.4 billion from Coca Cola Exports (for Almasi to buy crates and bottles), 3.1 billion from First Rand, Kshs 982 million from Cooperative Bank (for working capital), Kshs 573 million from Chase Bank (for infrastructure at Two Rivers and vehicles for Longhorn), and Kshs 440 million from KCB (for machinery at Mt. Kenya Bottlers)
  • They are owed Kshs 12 billion by related parties including 1.1 billion by Two Rivers Development, 3.1 billion by Centum Exotics, 3.3 billion from Centum development, 1.3 billion by Mvuke (Akira geothermal), 672 million at Vipingo Development and 533 million from Investpool Holdings.

Kenya Airways 

  • The report is 172 pages (up from 149 pages) and KQ has 79,753 shareholders (up from 78,577).
  • Going Concern: While their auditors KPMG have a material matter about KQ’s uncertainty as a going concern, the Directors have prepared the consolidated and company financial statements on a going concern basis since they are confident that the plans described above provide a reasonable expectation that the Group and Company will be able to meet their liabilities as and when they fall due and will have adequate resources to continue in operational existence for the foreseeable future. The Directors believe the plans above will improve the Group and Company’s profitability, cash flows and liquidity position. 
  • Sebastian Mikosz takes over as Group Managing Director & CEO, replacing Mbuvi Ngunze.
  • Tax treatment: the accumulated tax loss of Kshs 71 billion of Kenya Airways and Kshs 782 million of JamboJet will be carried forward for ten years and used to offset future taxable profits.
  • The fleet in 2017 had 39 aircraft down from 47. The board approved the sale of 6 aircraft, and 5 have since bene sold. Also, two Embraer 170’s were returned early to the lease owners while three Boeing 777-300 were leased for four years by KQ to Turkish Airlines with another two Boeing 787-800 leased to Oman Air for three years.
  • Borrowings Barclays Bank PLC – Aircraft loans 325 million at 4.87%, Citi/JP Morgan – Aircraft loans Kshs 71,649 million at 1.89%, African Export – Import Bank (Afrexim) – Aircraft Loans Kshs  21,050 million at 4.82%, and short-term facilities of 24,776 million at 8.58%, and Government of Kenya  24,540 million at 8.58%. The short term facilities were drawn down from Equity Bank, Jamii Bora Bank, Kenya Commercial Bank, Commercial Bank of Africa, I & M Bank, Chase bank, National Bank of Kenya, Diamond Trust Bank, Co-operative Bank, NIC bank and Ecobank for the financing of pre-delivery payments for ordered aircraft.
  • On Time Performance (“OTP”):  The top delays contributors were:1) Aircraft serviceability and availability;2) ATC restrictions and weather;3) Passenger and ramp handling;4) Crew shortage; and5) Connectivity due to new schedules with more efficient use of aircraft.
  • 13 incidents related to disruptive passengers/inappropriate behaviour were reported in 2016/17 financial year compared to 21 incidents reported in the prior year.
  • A total of 70 bird strikes were reported during the period under review compared to 63 cases in the prior year. Most of the reported bird strikes caused minimal damage to our aircraft, but several resulted in costly maintenance, parts replacement, and operational delays. These include two reported air turn back incidents and two rejected take-offs due to bird strikes.

Safaricom

  • The report is 144 pages (down from 172) and the company has 582,775 shareholders (down 600,000 shareholders last year and 660,000 the year before that).
  • At the AGM, shareholders will approve payment of a dividend of Kshs 0.97 per share (out of EPS of 1.21) – for a total dividend payout of almost Kshs 39 billion. Last year they paid Kshs 57 billion in dividends (35% of which went to the government to whom they also paid Kshs 84.3 billion in taxes and other fees).
  • Shareholders will approve a name change to Safaricom PLC. Also, they will vote on special board change resolutions following the Vodacom Vodafone deal; these  will mandate that the Chairman and all independent directors of Safaricom be Kenyan citizens, and also to require that a super-majority of the board (75% of directors) vote to approve changes to the business plans, appointments of the managing director and chief financial officer, and branding of the company – which previously Vodafone had a direct veto over.
  • Balance sheet of Kshs 108 billion down from 117 billion.
  • Bonga points (a loyalty scheme) now total  Kshs 3.3 billion (up from 3.2 billion) are a liability to be converted to revenue as customers utilize their points.
  • Safaricom also has deferred revenue of Kshs 3.4 billion from unused airtime and bundles (up from 2.7 billion) which include Kshs 243 million of managed services under the police contract.
  • For, the National Police Service communication project an amount of KShs7.5 billion was received during the year and the outstanding balance at the year-end was KShs4.47 billion.
  • The Group has short-term borrowing facilities with Commercial Bank of Africa, Standard Chartered Bank and Barclays Bank of Africa.
  • Safaricom has an active ESOP: 13.7 million shares historically valued at KShs193.2 million (2016: 30.4 million shares valued at KShs375.12 million) vested and were exercised by eligible staff.
  • Risks: their auditors, PWC, flagged  issues such as accuracy of revenue recognition, while
    Safaricom itself considers business risks including terror and cyber attacks, competition  (from companies like WhatsApp), the regulatory environment and weakened economic growth.
  • They have an Insider trading policy. Directors and staff are made aware that they ought not to trade in the company’s shares while in possession of any material insider information that is not available to the public or during a closed period.
  • Subsidiaries are One Communications, Instaconnect, Packet Stream Data Networks, Safaricom Money Transfer Services, East Africa Tower Company, IGO Wireless, Flexible Bandwidth Services, Comtec Training and Management Services, and Comtec Integration Systems – all 100& owned, while The East African Marines Systems Limited (TEAMS) is an associate company where they own 32.5%.
  • New products and innovations include Blaze, Flex and M-Pesa Kadogo under which they waived all charges for m-pesa transactions smaller than Kshs 100 ($1). 
  • Besides partnerships such as M-TIBA, Eneza and M-KOPA, they had others with women in technology, Little Cabs, athletics and music. Also, the Safaricom Spark Fund invested in six companies – Sendy, mSurvey, Eneza, Lynk, FarmDrive, and iProcure.
  • The company donated Kshs 381 million to the Safaricom foundation.
  • Twaweza – when we come together, great things happen– is the next phase of the Safaricom brand.

WDR 2017: Governance and the rule of law

WDR2017, the World Development Report from the World Bank for 2017, looks at governance and the rule of law around the world and how they can impact countries and economic development.

Illustrative pic from the Star Newspaper to show what a large sum of cash will look like

some excerpts;

  • Elections alone are not enough to bring change – even when citizens manage to remove politicians whose performance is poor or diverges from their preferences, elections alone offer no credible guarantee that, once elected, new leaders will not shirk their electoral promises and credibly commit to citizens’ demands.
  • Local elites can capture public spending despite participatory programs; as they can disproportionately sway expenditure decisions
  • Inequality begets inequality In societies in which inequality is high as the effectiveness of governance to deliver on equity outcomes can be weakened structurally because those at the top of the income ladder not only have control over a disproportionate amount of wealth and resources, but also have a disproportionate ability to influence the policy process.
  • Devolve: By multiplying the number of more or less autonomous arenas within which public authority is exercised, decentralization increases the opportunities for policy innovations and the emergence of effective leaders. Often these innovations are spurred by political outsiders, who may not have access to the national policy arena but are more likely to acquire citizen support locally and spur local institutional reforms.
  • Female leaders are less prone to patronage politics and corruption.
  • Media content is often defined by elites leading to a bias, but new media can counteract this.
  • Political parties are on average the least-trusted political institution worldwide
  • Politically connected firms gain undue advantage in countries through using market regulations to favor firms, granting import licenses to favored firms, and diverting credit.
  • Land redistribution policies often fail due to transaction costs, incomplete contracts, and political agreements.
  • The Panama Papers highlighted legal and illegal ways in which assets found their way to 40 countries: Funds are legally earned through tax evasion and evading currency controls and shifting profits, but also illegally by exploiting natural resources, violating intellectual property rights, corruption, embezzlement, drug trafficking, and human smuggling etc.

See the 2016 WDR report.

World Bank Reduces Kenya Economic Forecast

A new report from the  World Bank slightly revised down the forecast for Kenya economic growth from the 5.9% achieved last year to 5.5% in 2017. This is attributed to ongoing drought, depressed private sector growth, and rising oil prices while 2016 had low oil prices, tourism recovery, and favourable weather conditions.

At the launch, Central Bank Governor, Patrick Njoroge said the focus should not be on the rate change, but on the medium term in which Kenya’s economy had distinguished itself by its resilience. This comes from Kenya having a highly diversified economy  – a mix of largest export is tea but his tea, and that goes to Egypt (not the UK), the economy has a strong regional focus (25% of exports are to EAC, and 40% to sub-Saharan Africa), a dynamic private sector (that’s becoming more transparency, with good governance & better business models), a well-educated labour force and investments in infrastructure (he said more should be written about the SGR vs. the old lunatic express railway) which will improve the country’s competitiveness. He said that foreign exchange reserves were at an all-time high (5.3 months) and while rains had failed in 2017 and there was a slowdown in bank lending, the risk of Brexit to Kenya was more on foreign direct investment (FDI) side and less on exports.

At the launch, the World Bank also did a report on housing in Kenya titled unavailable and unaffordable that highlighted that there were fewer than 50,000 new houses being built each year compared to an annual demand for 200,000 homes. Also, there’s low financial participation with fewer than 25,000 mortgages in the country, yet mortgages are one of the most secure loans, as people do not default on their homes easily.

The World Bank proposes having a Kenya mortgage refinance company (KMRC) that adapts from other successful models in Malaysia, Morocco (guarantees for 70% of loans) and Nigeria (fully subscribed bond scheme) to see if the number of mortgages in Kenya can go up to 60,000. They also have private-public partnership at Naivasha in Nakuru County to build 1,000 low-cost homes, most of which will be below Kshs 2 million (~$20,000)

Also see a report of an IMF staff visit to Kenya.