Category Archives: Genghis Capital

Nairobi investment tips from Genghis for 2020

Genghis Capital has launched its 2020 investment playbook with the theme “harnessing value” after a year in which the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) all share-index had gained 18% compared to a loss of 18% in 2018. 

Top gaining shares in 2019 were led by Sameer Africa which rose 86%, then Equity Group 53%, Longhorn Publishers 46%, KCB 44% and Safaricom 42%. Shares on the bottom side were Kenya Airways which lost 77%, then Uchumi Supermarkets -63% and Mumias Sugar -43%. 

The playbook has a summary of 2019 whose gains were largely due to Safaricom and bank shares, and some of the year’s top deals which included the bank mergers of CBA & NIC and KCB & NBK. Other highlights of the year were the launch of derivative futures and the NSE Ibuka program which has uncovered some promising companies. It also notes the suspension of Mumias which joined Deacons and Athi River Mining as other shares in limbo. 

Outlook for 2020: The report includes a macroeconomic outlook for the country this year during which they expect aggressive domestic borrowing by the government, and the Kenya shilling to range between 100 – 104 against the US dollar. They have also factored in the possibility of another Kenya political referendum happening during 2020. 

Going forward, they expect that bank shares will do well, but that other equities will struggle this year. They look forward to the opportunity that derivatives have brought of diversification with lower trading costs but note that there is a need to have a market-maker to resolve some liquidity difficulties of trading derivatives.

They also note that the main shareholders at Unga and Express may try again to delist their company shares and take advantage of a new rule that reduces the takeover threshold requirement from being approval by 90% of shareholders to just 50%. Genghis also expect that the nationalization of Kenya Airways will be completed in 2020.  

Genghis picks and recommendations:

  • Momentum shares are Equity, EABL, KCB, Safaricom.
  • Income Shares are KCB, Barclays, Co-op Bank, Stanchart, KenGen.
  • Value shares are EABL KenGen, Kenya Re.
  • Buy (expect gains of more than 15%) EABL, Kengen, Kenya Re, KCB, NCBA, and Diamond Trust.
  • Hold (expect changes of between -15% to +14% over the next 12 months) Safaricom, Standard Chartered, Barclays, Equity, Cooperative, Stanbic, and I&M.  
  • Sell Recommendation: N/A

See last year’s picks by Genghis.

EDIT : On June 4, 2020, Genghis Capital announced a partnership with EGM Securities, to offer investors a wider range of alternative asset classes including online currencies, commodities, precious metals, oil, and biotech company stocks.

Reading the Kenya Rugby tea leaves

The Kenya Rugby Union held its annual general meeting on March 20. On the agenda too was the election of officials, including a new Chairman.

Officially called the Kenya Rugby Football Union (KRU)  the AGM came after a tough year, for the sport. Kenya does relatively well in international rugby, with its colourful ‘Sevens’ team featured on television broadcasts and with a loyal fan following around the world. The sevens team is currently ranked number 14 (after finishing number 8 in 2018)  and sometimes features Collins Injera, the all-time top try scorer.

But the team and the sport is rankled with management and funding issues, and while some corporations have supported different rugby series, competitions, and programs, there are still issues of team selection, coaching support and player welfares. During one series in Paris, the sevens team covered up logo of their shirt-sponsor, Brand Kenya, in protest over not receiving their allowances by the time they started their matches, and that drew the wrath of Kenya’s Tourism Minister, Najib Balala, who angrily cancelled their sponsorship contract, only to reinstate it a few days later.

AGM: The meeting was held after members overruled a request from the Government for them to postpone the AGM. The financial accounts of the Kenya Rugby Football Union (KRU), audited by PFK auditors, were shared with members at the meeting.

What do they tell us about the state of rugby?

Income: The income for 2018 included national squad income of  92 million (down from 117M in 2017), annual competitions income of 80M (up from 17M in 2017), World Rugby 21M and World Rugby sevens team support of 20M. There was also other income from jersey sales of just Kshs 736,000.

The annual competition income included 35M from Radio Africa and 9M  from Stanbic. East African Breweries donated 24M and 15M in 2018 and 2017 respectively while tickets sales in both years were 5.5M and 11.6M respectively. 

Of the national squad income in 2017, 97% of that (Kshs 113 million) came from Sportpesa, who later withdrew all sponsorships in protest at the Government increasing taxes on sport betting companies.  The 2018 income was more balanced, with Kshs 52M from the Government, and 20M from Brand Kenya as, to their credit, the Government fulfilled a pledge, at least for rugby, to plug the hole left by the Sportpesa departure.

In 2018, they also got 18M from Bidco, and enjoyed use of a vehicle that was donated by Toyota Kenya and containers from Bollore Logistics. Sponsorship income in 2017 included Kshs 20M from Wananchi (Zuku), Tatu City 5M, 4M from Bidco and a 2M bonus payment from Sportpesa

Expenses: In 2018, Kshs 132 million was spent on national squad operations (comprising 65M for the sevens team and 57M for the 15’s team), and 38M on competitions (comprising 10M each for club subsidy and the Safari Sevens tournament, and 8M each for international matches and the national sevens circuit). On rugby development, 10M was spent while 40M went towards administrative expenses (including 21M of salaries and 6M million on marketing and agency – which was down from 20M in 2017).

Overall: The Kenya Rugby Football Union (KRU) took in Kshs 227 million in 2018 and spent the same amount to end with a Kshs 527,104 surplus. The year before it took in 212 million and spent 247 million, resulting in a deficit of Kshs 36 million.

KRU has an accumulated deficit of Kshs 61 million, on its balance sheet with current liabilities of Kshs 120 million far greater than its current assets of Kshs 47 million. KRU had a negative bank position of minus 1.9M in 2018 (comprising a cash balance of Kshs 661,822 and overdraft of 2.5 million. They are owed 47M in receivables but owe 118M in trade payables (62M) and accruals of (50M)

These items were flagged by the auditors who also noted that KRU does not have a tax exemption certificate and the Society has made no provision for the payment of corporate tax.

Elections and Way Forward: The campaign manifesto of Sasha Mutai, one of the candidates for Chairman, was circulated online a few weeks before the election. In it, he articulated his plans including, short-term ones of settling the KRU debt, encouraging more (tax-eligible) corporate sponsorships, ensuring salaries are paid on time, supporting programs to nurture more women and schools rugby, increasing broadcast coverage and improving player welfare (including providing health insurance). His long-term goals include building an affordable national rugby stadium at Kasarani and to have Kenya qualify for the 2023 Rugby World Cup in France.

After the votes were counted, George Gangla was elected to succeed Richard Omwela as the  Chairman of the Kenya Rugby Union. He received 33 votes against Sasha Mutai 20 and Asiko Owiro who got two votes.  Geoffrey Gangla is the CEO of Genghis Capital, an investment bank while Omwela is Chairman of Scangroup and a managing partner at a leading law firm – HH&M.

Genghis Stock Picks for 2019

Nairobi-based investment bank Genghis Capital launched their 2019 “investor playbook” with the theme of embracing value. 2018 was a challenging year for the Kenyan economy and capital markets and that is expected to continue in 2019, but this also presents opportunities for investors.

Kenya has a relatively small number of stocks (65) on the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) – and Genghis chose nine stocks as their 2019 financial (banking & insurance) and non-financial picks for investors, in three categories:

  • Momentum stocks: Equity Bank, East African Breweries, KCB Group, Safaricom.
  • Income stocks: Stanbic, Barclays Kenya, Standard Chartered, KCB. 
  • Value stocks: Kenya Reinsurance, KCB, Bamburi Cement. 

They cited that Safaricom scored positively in every category while KCB and Equity banks had embraced digitization, high asset quality and low cost structures.

Other points from the playbook launch presentation:

  • They do not expect a repeal of interest rate caps this year, even though its impact has been negative on the economy.
  • Funds raised for infrastructure bonds are not all being used for that; some are going to retire other debts and they should be properly used
  • Public-private partnerships are not coming to fruition; paperwork for the Nairobi-Nakuru highway was submitted in April 2018 but there has been no decision.
  • To a question – “what is the regulator doing to increase the confidence of investors amid fraud incidents?” – the CMA can only do so much and the onus is still on the company directors. International markets have graver penalties than Kenya and perhaps it is time the Director of Public Prosecutions started looking at some cases here and following through on enforcement. 
  • While Kenya Re is a pick in the playbook, they generally don’t cover the insurance sector – it has challenges including fraud, price under-cutting, and low penetration levels (3%) and a lot has to happen to unlock value and growth in the insurance mass market. Kenya Re is there because it is under-valued (owing to lack of clear strategy and proper management) but would be desirable to other insurance investors if the government decided to sell its shareholding.
  • They expect one main listing and others on the smaller NSE boards this year. But while a number of planned privatizations have been mentioned  – Consolidated and Development banks, Kenya Pipeline, Kenya Ports they face numerous hurdles while others like sugar companies in Western Kenya have been on the pipeline since 2011.