Category Archives: economic sanctions

Afghanistan Bank Governor on Economic Prospects

Ajmal Ahmady, the acting Governor of the Central Bank of Afghanistan, Da Afghanistan Bank (DAB) in the ousted government has continued to post a series of tweets about events in the country. He answered questions about the country’s reserves, future relations with the IMF, relations with the US, management of the budget and deficit and the local banking sector.

1. Ajmal Ahmady @aahmady This thread is to clarify the location of DAB (Central Bank of Afghanistan) international reserves.

I am writing this because I have been told Taliban are asking DAB staff about location of assets. If this is true – it is clear they urgently need to add an economist on their team.

2. First, total DAB reserves were approximately $9.0 billion as of last week.

But this does not mean that DAB held $9.0 billion physically in our vault. As per international standards, most assets are held in safe, liquid assets such as Treasuries and gold.

3. The major investment categories include the following assets (all figures in billions):

(1) Federal Reserve = $7.0

  • U.S. bills/bonds: $3.1
  • WB RAMP assets: $2.4
  • Gold: $1.2
  • Cash accounts: $0.3

(2) International accounts = 1.3

(3) BIS = $0.7

4. Interesting note was that the IMF had approved a SDR650 billion allocation recently.

DAB was set to receive approximately $340 million on August 23rd. Not sure if that allocation will now proceed with respect to Afghanistan.

5. Given Afghanistan’s large current account deficit, DAB was reliant on obtaining physical shipments of cash every few weeks.

The amount of such cash remaining is close to zero due a stoppage of shipments as the security situation deteriorated, especially during the last few days.

6. On Friday morning, I received a call notifying me that there would be no further USD shipments (we were expecting one on Sunday, the day Kabul fell).

On Saturday, banks placed very large USD bids as customer withdrawals accelerated.

7. For the first time, I therefore had to limit USD access to both banks and dollar auctions to conserve remaining DAB dollars.

We also put out a circular placing maximum withdrawal limits per customer. During the day, afghani depreciated from 81 to almost 100 and then back to 86.

8. On Saturday at noon, I met with President Ghani to explain that the expected Sunday dollar shipment would not arrive.

On Saturday evening, President Ghani spoke with Secretary Blinken to request dollar shipments to resume. In principle it was approved.

9. Again, seems ridiculous in retrospect, but did not expect Kabul to fall by Sunday evening.

In any case, the next shipment never arrived. Seems like our partners had good intelligence as to what was going to happen.

10. Please note that in no way were Afghanistan’s international reserves ever compromised.

Assets are all held at Fed, BIS, RAMP, or other bank accounts. Easily audited. We had a program with both IMF and Treasury that monitored assets. No money was stolen from any reserve account.

11. Given that the Taliban are still on international sanction lists, it is expected (confirmed?) that such assets will be frozen and not accessible to Taliban.

I can’t imagine a scenario where Treasury/OFAC would given Taliban access to such funds.

12. Therefore, we can say the accessible funds to the Taliban are perhaps 0.1-0.2% of Afghanistan’s total international reserves. Not much.

Without Treasury approval, it is also unlikely that any donors would support the Taliban Government.

13. I believe local banks have told customers that they cannot return their dollars – because DAB has not supplied banks with dollars.

This is true. Not because funds have been stolen or being held in vault, but because all dollars are in international accounts that have been frozen.

14. Taliban should note this was in no way the decision of DAB or its professional staff.

It is a direct result of US sanctions policy implemented by OFAC. Taliban and their backers should have foreseen this result. Taliban won militarily – but now have to govern. It is not easy.

15. Therefore, my base case would be the following:

  • Treasury freezes assets
  • Taliban have to implement capital controls and limit dollar access
  • Currency will depreciate
  • Inflation will rise as currency pass through is very high
  • This will hurt the poor as food prices increase.

Central Banker on the fall of Afghanistan, 2021

Ajmal Ahmady, the Acting Governor of the Central Bank of Afghanistan, Da Afghanistan Bank (DAB) posted a series of tweets about events in the country and at the Kabul airport.

Extracts:

1/The collapse of the Government in Afghanistan this past week was so swift and complete – it was disorienting and difficult to comprehend.

2/Although much of the rural areas fell to the Taliban over the past few months, the first provincial capital to fall was just 1 week and two days ago!

  • This is how the events seemed to proceed from my perspective as Central Bank Governor.
  • On Friday August 6th, Ziranj fell. Over the next 6 days, a number of other provinces fell – particularly in the north.

3/There were multiple rumors that directions to not fight were somehow coming from above.

  • Seems difficult to believe, but there remains a suspicion as to why ANSF left posts so quickly. There is something left unexplained

4/Currency volatility and other indicators had worsened, but DAB were able to stabilize the macroeconomic environment relatively well during the last week – given the deteriorating security environment.

5/I attended my normal (Thursday) meetings. Ghazni fell in the morning.

  • I left work, and by the time I went home – Herat, Kandahar, and Baghdis also fell. Helmand was also under serious attack

6/Friday – we received a call that given the deteriorating environment, we wouldn’t get any more dollar shipments.

  • People spread rumors that I had fled on Friday.
  • On Saturday, DAB had to supply less currency to the markets on Saturday, which further increased panic.

7/Currency spiked from a stable 81 to almost 100 then back to 86. I held meetings on Saturday to reassure banks and money exchangers to calm them down. I can’t believe that was one day before Kabul fell

8/On Saturday night, my family called to say that most government had already left. I was dumbfounded.

  • A security assessment accurately forecast Taliban arrival to Kabul within 36 hours and its fall within 56 hours
  • I got worried & purchased tickets for Monday as a precaution

9/On Sunday I began work. Reports throughout morning were increasingly worrisome. I left the bank and left deputies in charge. Felt terrible about leaving staff.

  • But arrived at airport & saw that Mohaqeq, Rahmani, Massoud, etc were already there! Head of parliament seems content

10/Saw VP Danish leaving – reportedly for Qatar. By then it was rumored that VP Saleh had left.

  • Ministers + others were waiting for a Fly Dubai & Emirates flights. Both were cancelled
  • I secured a Kam Air flight Sunday 7pm. Then the floor fell: the President had already left.

11/I knew right then my flight would be cancelled and there would be chaos.

  • As expected employees & military left posts. Everyone ran through gates to on Kam Air flight. 300+ passengers boarded for a 100-seat plane.
  • The plane had no fuel or pilot. We all hoped it would depart

12/However, I decided to disembark and spotted another military plane. It was surrounded by people trying to board, while the guard forces held people back and boarded their embassy staff.

  • There was a rush. Some shots were fired. Somehow, my close colleagues pushed me on board.

13/It did not have to end this way. I am disgusted by the lack of any planning by Afghan leadership. Saw at airport them leave without informing others.

  • I asked the palace if there was an evacuation plan/charter flights. After 7 years of service, I was met with silence

14/During last days, I feared not only risks related to Taliban, but fear of transition period once there is no chain of command.

  • Once president’s departure was announced, I knew within minutes chaos would follow. I cannot forgive him for creating that without a transition plan.

Finally: Did I have a reason to worry? This is the text someone sent me:

“Taliban come to and were looking for you. They were asking about Ajmal Ahmady DAB Governor.”

Whatever their personal views, I also had many personal enemies. Or maybe they just wanted to greet me.

Follow Ajmal Ahmady at @aahmady.

Mauritius and the EU Blacklist

This week, the East Africa Venture Capital Association (EAVCA) organized a talk about Mauritius that’s facing a European Union financial transactions blacklist.  

Some excerpts:

  • Mauritius has set itself up as a financial hub that attracts and deploys investments across Africa. It has become the place of choice to operate through and 90% of investments into East Africa are done through Mauritius (60% are from the EU). The significance of this is that one panelist said that the Mauritius ban was worse than COVID.
  • Mauritius has complied with 35 of the 40 clauses (including the big 6 important ones), and 53 of the 58 recommended actions on Anti-Money Laundering (AML). There’s high-level commitment to correct the remaining ones, led by the Prime Minister, and the nation has a timetable to address the outstanding issues in 2021. 
  • The blacklist prohibits European investments in new funds in Mauritius, with the ban also affecting all European Investment Bank (EIB), funding, investments, lending and operations. The ban is not retroactive, so they have agreed on a grandfather period, till 31 December 2021, during which funds can continue to operate and by which time they hope the country will be removed from the list. But from October 1 2020, European funds can’t make new invests in funds structured in Mauritius. They have two options – focus on funds not established in Mauritius or invest through parallel structures (institutions that are set-up to co-invest along with funds in Mauritius) 
  •  No African country will benefit from Mauritius troubles as there are few alternatives to that country. Malta and Ghana have also been listed – so likely bases are now Dubai, or within the EU (Netherlands, Ireland, Luxembourg, France) itself.  
  • Kenya and Mauritius have been working on a taxation treaty for 8 years. Kenya has signed 14 tax treaties (including with Canada, France, Germany, India, Norway, UK, Zambia and South Africa), most before 1987, but none had raised as much attention as the proposed Mauritius DTA, as it is which is a low-tax country. Uganda and Rwanda already have Mauritius DTA’s. Kenya’s Parliament opened public participation on a new Kenya-Mauritius treaty for the avoidance of double-taxation in terms of cross-border transactions (property, profits, royalties, dividends, technical fees etc.) and the deadline for comments is October 5 202. But the treaty does not apply to most Kenyan investment firms as a 2014 KRA law change requires 50% of ownership to be in another state to qualify.  

KPMG on Kenya Taxes in 2020

Last month, Kenya’s President announced proposals to cushion residents from impacts of the Coronavirus that has affected many industries and companies by disrupting supply chains and reducing consumer spending. He cited measures such as reduction of income taxes, and Value-Added Tax (VAT goes down from 16% to 14%), that have now taken root in April 2020.

But the details of the proposal are now clear with the publication of the tax laws amendments. They are contained in a 97-page bill that is to be tabled at and debated at a special session of Kenya’s National Assembly (Parliament) on Wednesday, April 8, for their approval.

KPMG East Africa has nicely summarized some of the proposals in the bill, picking through the details. Some notable items are:

  • VAT: Items that were previously exempt including bread, milk cream, vaccines, and medicaments, move from the zero list to the VAT exempt list, and this may push up their costs.
  • Items that previously did not incur VAT but which will now be charged 14% include agricultural pest control products, tourism park fees, LPG, helicopters, mosquito nets, equipment for solar & wind energy, museum exhibits & specimens, tractors, clean cookstoves, insurance services, and helicopter leasing which previously did not attract VAT.
  • For investors: VAT is now charged on the transfer of a business as a going concern, as well as on assets transfers to real estate investment trusts (REIT’s) and asset-backed securities.
  • Income tax: Is reduced across different bands with those earning below Kshs 24,000 per month exempted from paying income tax, while the tax rate for top earners goes down from 30% to 25%.
  • Non-residents will pay 15% withholding tax on dividends they receive, an increase from the current 10%.
  • Corporate tax: This reduces from 30% to 25%.
  • Businesses earning between Kshs 500,000 to Kshs 50 million a year are to pay turnover tax, which will now be reduced from 3% to 1% of income, monthly. The previous upper limit was Kshs 5 million.
    It is now mandatory for businesses to keep records of all their transaction for 5 years
  • Anti-industry moves?: An electricity rebate for manufacturers has been ended, VAT has been introduced on goods used to build large industrial parks, and there will also be reductions of building investment allowances.
  • Kenya Revenue Authority: When KRA appoints banks as revenue collection agents, they are to remit collections to the Central Bank of Kenya within two days.
  • Removes a requirement that KRA publishes tax rulings in newspapers.
  • KRA may pay rewards of up to Kshs 500,000 for people who give information leading to tax law enforcement (i.e whistleblowers). 

The National Assembly will also consider regulations of a new Covid-19 Emergency Response Fund that the President announced on March 30. They will also dispense with appointments to the CDF board and the Teachers Service Commission, and consider any bills from the Senate.

So while Parliament debates this under the rush of emergency provisions, most of the clauses are financial items unrelated to Coronavirus.

The End of Social Conventions?

For weeks, investors and the business community have been rattled by massive  disruptions to global supply chains, as factories shut down in China. Everyone from BMW and Mercedes to Apple is feeling the squeeze on account of the coronavirus.

But economies and businesses are not the only ones dealing with disruption. 

Social conventions are adjusting in unprecedented ways.

Yesterday, Italy shut down ALL schools and contemplated banning kissing in an attempt to thwart the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.  The kissing ban may not be necessary. Italians are already voting with their feet and keeping their cheeks at a very safe distance from friends, family members and others.

But Italy is not alone.

In France, where “La bise” is an age-old ritual, kissing friends has always been a rather complicated affair, especially for uninitiated foreigners. Rather than shaking hands, waving hello or hugging, you simply  lean forward, touch cheeks and kiss the air while making a sound with your lips. 

Friends in France tell me that ‘La bise’ could soon go the way of the dodo if the virus known as “COVID19” remains unrelenting.

Here in Abidjan in Côte d’Ivoire, as in many other parts of the world, social conventions are rapidly changing. Unlike the French double blise, Ivorienes, conduct a rapid triple kiss. But they too have become extremely economical with their cheek and air kisses. 

At the African Development Bank, where we have rapidly put a coronavirus contingency plan in place, kisses and handshakes are quickly giving way to fist and elbow bumps, or to no contact at all. Many understandably  prefer an adoring “keep your hands to yourself” stance.

Across town, it is not uncommon to see men and women now tap their feet rather than touch cheeks or shake hands. What first started out a few weeks ago as a  comedic viral video in Asia, has since mushroomed into a full-blown practice in some communities. 

I’ve already been offered the foot of friendship’ several times, so I can testify.

Last night, I was having dinner with a colleague at Indian By Nature, a lovely restaurant off of Boulevard de Marseille in the Marcory district that is a favourite hangout for many in the expatriate community.

Three things struck me. 

One, very visible neon yellow alcoholic hand sanitizers were on full display all around the restaurant. You couldn’t miss them.

Second, everyone … waiters, chefs, and owners kept their hands and cheeks to themselves. 

And third, it would seem that the hand-clasped Hindi ‘Namaste’ greeting could soon become a globally preferred and much safer social norm, in a world battling with a pandemic that has already spooked the media and business world for good reason.

Social conventions have always been arcane arbitrary rules and norms that govern behaviours from kissing, hugging, shaking hands, to bowing. In the age of increasing pandemics, it would seem that old conventions are quickly giving way to the new and the not so new.

For now, stay safe and Namaste!

Dr. Victor Oladokun, is the Director of Communication and External Relations, African Development Bank.