Kenya’s economy is projected to grow by 5.6% from 4.7% last year, Stanbic Bank economists projected on Thursday. The Kenya macro economy was supported by improved performance in the agricultural and tourism sectors rippling down to the manufacturing and services sectors.
Pic from KenyanWallStreet
Jibran Qureishi, Stanbic’s Regional East African economist explained the Stanbic Bank Kenya Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) served as a leading indicator as it vindicated itself over the quarterly GDP growth rate. He underlined the importance of the government’s focus on credit growth to the private sector, improved agricultural policies, the balance of payments and exchange rate.
Recent ranking in the ease of doing business report, end of the political impasse, improved efficiencies in ports and expected increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) would hopefully promote the economy over the 6% year on year growth target which Kenya has only achieved five times since 1980.
However, Kenya’s debt service costs which are mainly external and fiscal consolidation needs to be thought about more carefully for a better and consistent economic performance and Mr. Qureishi warned that the biggest downside risk to the growth outlook would be slower private sector credit growth and fiscal consolidation. He stated that the introduction of IFRS 9 (replacing the IASB 39) will make the credit growth drought recovery sluggish although the demand side for credit is improving and that the government also needs to develop a sound industrial policy which would have productivity gains rather than increasing expenditure on new infrastructure projects.
Inflation likely to fall in H1.18 and thereafter edge higher as 2017 short rains have been good.
Expected rebound in the agriculture sector.
KES to be steady in H1.18.
GDP growth likely to recover in the near to medium term.
Last week saw the release of financial results of SBG Securities (formerly CFC Stanbic Financial Services/CSFS). They are the first stockbroker (they are actually licensed as an Investment Bank) to release their 2016 results and this was done along with the release of the results of Stanbic Bank and their common parent – Stanbic Holdings.
At SBG Securities, revenue dropped from Kshs 599 to Kshs 294 million. This was mainly due to stockbrokerage commissions which reduced from Kshs 399 to Kshs 223 million. Expenses were largely unchanged except for salaries that went down from Kshs 183 to 142 million.
SBG’s pre-tax profit for the year was Kshs 3 million, which was substantially down from Kshs 277 million in 2015. Their balance sheet also reduced down from Kshs 1 billion to 648 million. SBG is the number 3 stockbroker in Kenya with 13.8% share, and in
2015, SBG was second in brokerage commission behind Kestrel Capital.
In a notice sent to clients, they reported that turnover at the Nairobi Securities Exchange for the year was Kshs 294 billion compared to Kshs 419 billion in 2015. Also, that market weakness is expected to continue in 2017. But they added:
A new year always starts on a high with each of us drafting our investment/ financial resolutions. As the year progresses, so do our plans and at times they don’t necessarily materialize. 2017 can be the year that you fulfill your investment resolutions by investing in shares listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange. Whilst the market has hit an 8-year low, we believe this is the time to invest.
Stanbic: Eight years after the merger between Stanbic and CFC banks, which created CFC Stanbic, Stanbic has rebranded and removed the “CFC” name completely from the bank. The 2008 merger created the number 4 bank in Kenya, and today it is about number 7 in assets with 25 branches and listed on the Nairobi shares exchange. The Stanbic brand will now be common in the 20 countries across Africa.
Bank M (of Tanzania) published a statement, denying they are the majority owners of the former Oriental Commercial Bank in Kenya – now known as M Oriental since June 2016. It states that MHL is a Kenyan entity that is promoted by some shareholders of Bank M, but that it does not have direct ownership.
QNB: Qatar National Bank continues to run quarterly newspaper ads on it’s size in Kenya without being linked to any Kenyan bank. Today’s newspaper which touts them as the largest financial institution in the Middle East and Africa region, with September 2016 assets of $196 billion (up 37%) and profits of $2.7 billion (up 11%).
Yesterday, CFC Stanbic became the first bank to extend the capping of interest rate loans to apply to existing loans.
While most banks had announced they would adjust loan rates for new facilities to a maximum of 14.5%, they were waiting to see what the Central Bank (CBK) would say about existing facilities.
But within the space of a few hours, the Kenya Bankers Association announced this was extended to existing facilities. Other banks like Cooperatie Bank, KCB Group, and Diamond Trust also announced the extension of the new rate cap to existing loans and (edit) Barclays too.
“…Consequently, the KBA wishes to announce that its members have agreed to prospectively reprice existing loans, which will see existing customers enjoy the benefits of the new law once it is operationalised. Each KBA member bank will therefore notify their customers on the process and new terms as the industry engages with CBK on the implementation.”
The big banks are leading, but there’s still silence from a few large ones (Barclays, Equity) and most of the smaller ones, except Transnational and (edit) GT Bank. KCB also clarified that the new interest rates do not affect mobile (phone) loans. i.e m-pesa loans
The reduction in loan interest rates will mainly have the effect of enabling people to pay off their loans faster than originally scheduled. The above banks have all invited their loan customers to visit branches to discuss the repricing of loans. New loan agreements will have to be drawn if they choose to adjust their loans, as some banks had issued fixed rate loans. Loan installments may or may not change, and the difference will depend on the size of the original loan.