Monthly Archives: February 2014

Mobile East Africa 2014, Day 2

More #MEA2014 Excerpts

Nduta Maina, Lead Digital Strategist, Aim Group, said that 2.5 quintillion (billion, billion) bytes of data are now being generated every day and that  2 years ago we only had 10% of the amount of data that we have today. This calls for tools and brains to decipher all this data, like predictive policing in Mexico and that a McKinsey study found that there was a potential of 140,000 to 190,000 critical data jobs out there yet to be filled.

Samuel Majani Founder & Ceo, Ghafla! spoke of creating what he said is now the 2nd  most influential Kenya media company and the 4th largest website with about 1.5 million readers, and 30 million page views in a month. In two years, the landscape has gone from very little entertainment content online to the situation today where there are sites like Ghafla, Daily Post, Vibe Weekly, Nairobi Wire, The Kenyan and Niaje all putting content online.

The content they all produce was considered to be irresponsible, low quality, ‘crap’, but like tasty, junk food that has worked and made money, but they are now maturing into the next phase. Ghafla has now gotten more professional as they transition from an anonymous blog to a digital media company that is accessible, with known writers and offices. They now have an editorial team of 5 people who upload 55 pieces of content per day and do ethically journalistic things like calling to verify stories, giving credit to other sources, and issuing updates & apologies when they are wrong. They have advertising solutions for small enterprises (SME’s – who they might charge Kshs 5,000 [~$60] to large corporates who they might bill for Kshs 300,000 [~$3,500] and their revenue now comes from ad networks (15%), SME’s (40%) and large corporates (45%).

Simeon Oriko Community Lead, Open Institute & Co-Founder, Jamlab spoke about flash mobs as a metaphor for intense, but short-lived power of social media. He recapped a few initiatives he’s been involved in like: 

  • Creating an app ahead of the 2013 Kenya election called #gottovote to help people find locations near their homes, work places, commute routes where they could register and vote. They did this by scraping data from a 1,200 page government PDF – and they’ve got requests from groups in other African countries who want to repeat this.
  • After a public service vehicle strike in Kenya, he created and pushed (along with others like @themumbi @ma3route @kenyaredcross ) the  #carpoolke  hashtag to bring together people with cars and people seeking rides – and this went viral. It was big for 2 days in September 2012, but today people are still using the #carpoolke tag to find rides. Also, amid its notable impact, 2 people got killed as a result of this initiative (they got rides, but were later found dead). 
  •  During the #Westgate attack in Nairobi in September 2013, along with @NiNanjira, they crowdsourced 85 questions in 6-7 hours that Kenyans wanted answers on about the on-going attack/siege. Al Jazeera covered this initiative, but some people also tried to derail the initiative by injecting tribal mentions (which the administrators deleted). 

He also asked if the online crowd on blogs, twitter or other social media could be defined as a community as two prominent  bloggers Idd Salim and Billy Branks (in Uganda) had recently passed away – but few in the ‘community’knew that they had health problems or did anything about it

Later, in the Q&A after he gave praise to Matthew Dawes, the organizer of the Mobile East Summit, for offering a 35% discounts for students and developers to attend. He said that during the first event some years back, he offered to volunteer at Mobile East and got a chance to attend the event for free – and wished that more local corporates would also give similar opportunities to techies.

Stone Atwine Co-Founder & CEO, Redcore Interactive spoke out his Remit.Ug in the remittance market which is ready for disruption. He said the established  brick and mortar remittance giants are monopolies who make it hard for new entrants, but he considers them to be slow, not agile (customers can’t make fractional withdrawals), are insecure (customers have to carry sizable physical cash from their branches), and they are expensive (share revenue with agents with the result that about 12% of money sent to Africa is spent on fees. 

He believes that, with his mobile solution, Africans can do all of the above in a better way  all while spending a fraction of the above costs – as all one needs is a mobile phone and an ID document. The biggest challenge is gaining customer trust as Remit is a small company and that even getting regulators to issue licenses has a challenge (They’ve had numerous requests for shareholders and director information, share capital, Interpol certificates, and proof of anti-money laundering/terror systems).

Through marketing and new consumer education, they hope to succeed and grow volumes, by being transparent in pricing (they make money in forex), having quality customer service, and also as they have flat fees, no matter where money is being sent from. Next, they want to go from mobile to delivery direct into bank accounts, and allow remittance recipients to pay bills. 

He believes that competition from mobile is going to bring prices down and that eventually mobile will phase out brick & mortar remittance outlets. They now only process Visa and MasterCard – but want to add M-Pesa and Airtel Money – and he vowed that if Safaricom gave them access to their M-Pesa API, they would test it immediately and after three days, be able to send money to M-Pesa. 

Kyai Mullei, CEO & Co-Founder, Mobi Changa spoke about the concept of crowd-funding or ‘giving’ that is found all across Africa under different names like Ujamaa Ubuntu, Gutwerera and Harambee.

There is a lack of safety nets and so extended families chip in for events like weddings and funerals due to social pressure.

The collections of such funds is now clumsy as with multiple payment modes to be tabulated and consolidated, (Western Union, cash), and is often expensive with ceremonial expenses taking up  30% of collections. 

Their platform integrates with Facebook, and Twitter and can receive payments via PayPal, M-Pesa, Airtel Cash, Credit cards and the money is instantly available. Also, one can start a  fundraiser on M-Changa in a few minutes using a very basic mobile phone – and it allows everyone to be aware of the fundraiser in real time, know how many other people have donated (and how much). Also, other potential givers, don’t have to wait to be invited if they know the fundraiser and can start to give.

They are also working on recurring payments model and also to enhance M-Changa for school fees as that is the biggest use of their platform now. Also, another big use is fundraising for burial expenses and they want to improve on that.

Mobile East Africa 2014, Day 1

#mea2014 is a cool annual event that has since 2010, strived to showcase a lot of mobile phone developments in Africa. 
Some highlights of Day on February 12, in Nairobi
Host of the morning session, Mark Kaigwa, started off with a comment that there’s been a lot of hope, but  also a lot of hype around the whole silicon savannah story, and that the event was about hearing some stories of actualization of developments
Veronica Ogeto-Tchoketch Head Of Innovation at Safaricom spoke about recent innovations the company that aimed to transform lives and these included: 
– iCow: A partnership with Green Dreams that offers dairy and poultry farmers information by SMS to maximize their yields, and now has 12,800 farmers.
– Shupavu291: In partnership with Eneza education, is a study tool for primary school students  that now has 170,000 users on monthly or weekly subscriptions.
– JamiiSmart is a maternity app that aims to reduce mortality rates of mothers and children from childbirth to 5 years by sending alerts on immunization, medical visits, medication etc.
– Lindajamii aims to counter a low 3% insurance penetration rate in Kenya – and so Safaricom partnered with Changamka and BritAm to come up with a basic in & out patient medical cover for families that also includes funeral benefit and maternity cover with monthly m-pesa payments staggered.
– Refugees United: In partnership with Ericsson and UNHCR, they developed a tool that refugees could use to track relatives they’ve lost track of through a platform that provides confidentiality and security.
– M-Kopa: Is a solar panel solution that is able to light 3 rooms in a home, and also charge mobile phones. 40,000 customers have signed up for this, and payments can be via m-pesa.
– Vuma online  they equipped select matatus/PSV’s (now 3,000) with 3G modems – and now some youth ask if a matatu has vuma before boarding. They plan to extend the data penetration services to restaurants, train stations, barbers etc.
– M-pesa  has now been extended to M-Shwari (loans to individuals) and M-Pesa online (pay for goods bought online via m-pesa)

The partnerships have been developed with Safaricom’s valued business partners including Huawei, BritAm, iLabAfrica, Commercial Bank of Africa, Seven Seas, among others.
In the Q&A session she mentioned that they want to work in agriculture, health, fishing in 2014 and people can send suggestions to innovation_at_safaricom.co.ke – but that app proposals were not enough to get one access to Safaricom assets like USSD, API, and research. She also appealed  to the government to open up spectrum to mobile operators. 
Dr. Bitange Ndemo, who’s the honorary chairperson, Alliance For Affordable Internet said that Africa has the most inefficiencies of any continent and said that the release of information by broadband / mobile as one way of sorting these. He said African government make a mistake by auctioning spectrums – and said the 700, 800, 2600 MHz spectrum ones should be given at the lowest prices or even free as they will spur commerce that will generate more than enough taxes to pay these  back.

Mark Redman the CTIO of Smile Tanzania which launched 4G last year in Uganda and Tanzania that uses 800mhz and offers excellent broadband to on the move mobile devices. He said 4G has more possibility that  3G as one can share many connections over Wi-Fi, can tether, stream HD, do FaceTime, Skype, all with no buffering.

They are see seeing behavior change – and also some bill shock with their customers as 13MB/second download to a mobile service leads to an  average consumption that is greater than 10 gigabytes per month

They now cover Arusha, Dar es Salaam, Kampala, Entebbe and Ibadan and soon Lagos and also into the DRC – giving them a presence in 4 large African markets.

in Tanzania they are using national backbone, metro fiber in TZ – – and have to lease capacity which is not great as they want to be a carrier. Google offer an interesting proposition in Uganda so may work with them and talking with Google and IBM on other ways of reducing costs including delivering internet without telcos. Smile is a service provider, not an infrastructure company. they lease towers (from Airtel, Helios) but see that  monopolization of towers is becoming a problem. 


They are aiming for 5G next, and want to deliver all that was promised to Africa on 3G and he predicted that by next year it will be hard to sell an android smartphone that is not 4G capable.

  
Tomi Ahonen who Forbes magazine called one of the world’s most influential expert in mobile gave a special address –  The Near Future Of Mobile: Where Is The Opportunity?. This was his 62ndcountry to visit and 99th city to speak in about mobile stories. 

Highlights

– The convergence of mobile – many companies are now interested in mobile including PC giants  who now think the future is mobile   – such as HP (who regret abandoning mobile, and are now coming back), Lenovo (buying Motorola from Google), Sony (sold laptops biz to focus on mobile) and Microsoft spent $7b to buy Nokia

– Prevalence – There are as many mobile phone subscriptions as there are people in the world. This is unprecedented, and even pen & paper, and wrist watches never got this reach

– Grand convergence – 15 global industries will fully migrate into mobile (if not completely) movies, music, advertising, telecom, Internet, computer, credit, bank, insurance, watch, camera, map, print, broadcast, and social media. Some are already on the way there with  camera already gone 90% mobile, and music at 40% – but there is a lot of opportunity in the others to enable this transformation. Also any of these industries, can cross over and capture customers in another segment – as was seen with camera phones, introduced in 2001, but which have now wiped up traditional analog camera companies (today Nokia is the most used camera brand, and Samsung is best selling camera – while Kodak, Polaroid Minolta have all gone,. Also unfathomable in 2000 was that computers would enter the music business, but today  iTunes is the world biggest music store.

– Mobile is the 7th mass media – 1st Print (1500)  2nd Records (1890s), then Cinema (1910) Radio (1920) TV (1950) Internet (1995) Mobile (2000s). Also mobile is different from the internet and while it is difficult to make money on the internet, it is easier to make money on mobile. …He said that 8th mass media will be augmented reality.
 
Mobile has 9 unique abilities
–  mobile is personal mass medium
– Users are permanently connected
– Always carried
– Built in payment channel;
– Available at creative impulse
– Has very accurate audience info
– Captures social context of consumption
– Enable augmented reality
– Offers a digital interface to the real world 

Ood features like SMS are still very powerful as seen by corporates like Omo, Carrefour, Finnair- who through various campaigns are able to generate paid customer responses that range from 30% to 300%
– He cited Alan Moore by saying that said mobile user data is the new black gold for the 21st century, and it’s possible that by year 2030, the Fortune 500 companies will be topped by companies that drill for data, not for oil. 

– $10 iPhone Android is the future, but in future based on Moore law, in which the processing power doubles and the costs halve every 18 months, there will be a $10 iPhone (or an equivalent of that) by year 2019.
– What can Kenya learn from his Finland? Developers was not to be afraid to fail, but to learn and try again – noting that Rovio (of Angry Birds)  failed 51 times before they had the hit game.

Tim Legg CEO Ole! Media Group spoke of the challenges of delivering media digitally in Africa. He said mobile is not internet – and that since the advent of the internet, very few digital publishers make money from digital media and that is not sustainable – whereas mobile media is sustainable.

 –  – Independent mobile media businesses need to be self funded
– Even next year there will still be 1 smart phone for every 5,6 feature phone in south Africa –  so forget about the super apps. It is still a feature phone media world where USSD and SMS work perfectly ok, and  they see increase in unique growers on all digital platforms. 
– Their growth is predominantly through the mobile channels but the durations have dropped,  as have average number of visits have dropped.
— Mobile can compliment traditional media – allow interaction and enable payments – something which internet has never done
–  – Move away from the old newspapers model of charging readers a monthly subscription paid by credit card to one pay per use billed to a mobile phone
-Publishers can’t make enough money from advertising to pay for content creation – and advertising in Africa has been driven down by Google and is heading to zero.
– Mobile growth is also found in what are considered dying markets like the UK
– Start with feature phone (SMS) move to smart phones, touch phones, then tablets to grow the media ad network
Jonathan Endersby Head of Special Projects, at Praekelt
Praekelt works with Guinness Smirnoff Johnny Walker and banks and insurance. They also have a Parekelft Foundation when realized some of tech work done for big brands was really cool and could also make a difference in the world
He spoke of developing universal tech that anyone can access and use it to make their lives better  – and they do it on open source tools like vumi
They have worked in 17 countries across Africa on initiatives that revolves around the base of the pyramid – where  60% of people are (earning less than $2.5 per day) and 50% of these have internet access, but 99% have access to mobile phones
Some of these include
– a text alert to remind people to go get doctor check-ups – people can now send message back (2 weeks old)
– Guinness you’re the boss – a fantasy football game that 5 people can play at the same time, al on USSD. It’s in 5 countries and got 200,000 users in 4 months.
– Wikipedia text -100,000 users in 3 months, 400,000 searches. He  pleads with Safaricom to make Wikipedia free  (*515#)
Robert Lamptey, the CEO of Saya spoke about preparing his company for international expansion. The company started as a way for students who could not afford expensive SMS to send messages through installing an app on their feature phones, access the phone books and  mimic SMS messages
They wanted to experiment with 2,000 people but instead got 400,000 downloads in 3 months – and 86,000 users (they realized they had an issued converting downloads to users) – and in turn 86,000 people invited 9 million people to join in a few months and their servers were crashing – and they got scared when they noticed some Arabic messages flowing through their systems which turned out to be people in Syria using their network to communicate early in the Syria uprising.
Early on they plugged some analytics tools into their systems and were able to decipher trends and what as happening e.g. that android devices are the next device people buy after feature phones. And data tells you how to make money, and based on their analytics, they are going o move into the dating platform space
One of their coolest features street chat – which people in one location can use to start chatting – and he said that they can see that Namibians talk about sex, Nigerians are always trying to sell anything, Indians like to flirt, and Kenyans love politics.
as a founder, be on the front-line and solve the problem that you have and not what other people have e.g. telcos were blocking their systems that was eating away their revenue, but they managed to find a way around that. There are many new opportunities e.g. Google want to deliver the internet while offline, and without telcos.
He said there’s nothing new in Africa, nothing we are investing has not been done elsewhere – so ask people send email out, they will help you -as people who know stuff are always willing to help.

Other quotes of the day

– Cory Wiegert Director Of Product Management, Software Group – Africa, IBM  IBM has a $20 billion software business – and is trying to address the challenge of a 4 screen world   (laptop desktop mobile and tablet) – how to sync that make that experience consistent, and secure in a bring your own device world – e.g. at IBM that has over 400,000 organization
John Waibochi CEO, Virtual City – Users have transformed e.g. in tea, coffee, alcohol sectors. Cooperatives in central Kenya want to do shocking things with mobile. Also distributors who are 65% cash less want to be 85% cash less and make these more demands from tech companies as they believe that the mobile is the way to go and tell their tech partners they are moving too slowly. Also no two groups want the same system/features. so his company has gone from having more developers, to having more business analysts
Laban Okune – Founder, Ma3Route – what holds people back? Money..SMS short codes are not cheap, and though people here are saying develop things around SMS, he also appealed to operators to make this cheaper
Taha Jiwaji Founder & CEO, Bongo Live spoke of bootstrapping with consultancy services to build your products and company
Jonathan Endersby  even American developers are shocked that USSD exists 
Jose Henriques Group VP Data, Airtel Africa – you don’t pay to receive calls while roaming on Airtel in 17 African countries.

Shares Portfolio February 2014

Compared to last quarter, the portfolio is up 0.13% while the NSE 20 share index is down by 5.25% since  November 2013.
The Stable
Barclays ↓
Bralirwa (Rwanda) ↓
Centum  (ICDCI) ↑
Diamond Trust ↑
East African Portland Cement ↓
Equity Bank ↓
KCB ↓
Kenya Airways  ↓
Kenya Oil ↓
Safaricom ↑
Scangroup ↓
Stanbic (Uganda) ↑
Unga ↑
Changes
In: None
Out: None
Increase: Kenya Airways
Decrease: Diamond Trust
Best performer: Centum (up 22% this quarter), then Diamond Trust (14%), Safaricom 6% 
Worst performer: Scangroup (down 15% this quarter), then Kenya Airways  (-14%), KCB (-10%)
Looking Forward To 
– Bank profits & dividends, though it’s going to be a rough year 
– Diamond Trust rights issue.
– More M&A deals that involve listed companies like Centum.
– The downward trend echoes back to 5 years ago  when every share was down, and Diamond Trust was the best performer by only losing 8%. Since then, it is up 229%. 

Kenya’s Money in the Past V: Who Control’s Kenya Industry

Over the holidays, I came across a fascinating book on Kenya’s economic history that was published in 1968, as a report of a working party set up by the Department of Christian Education and Training of the National Christian Council of Kenya. 


It’s a snapshot of another era when the East African Railways & Harbours was the largest commercial employer and the Kisumu Municipal Council was a milk processor. – and it shows early signs of conglomerates, and the influence of policy and politics that would shape Kenya’s industry in future years.

Some pages 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kenyan M&A

Compared to one year ago

On-Going Deals

Auto’s: – This week Al-Futtaim held a press conference to reaffirm their commitment to African market that is being spearheaded by their takeover of CMC  in Kenya.  More than anything the event was meant to showcase that the group founded in 1930,  but which few in Kenya had heard of before the deal, is a serious legitimate company (unlike shadowy China Road & Bridge that has a $3.8  billion contract to construct a standard gauge railway in Kenya.)

They have several car franchises 65 years of Toyota in UAE, Volvo, Honda vehicle assembly parts & service, used car business  and is also in engineering, financials services and the retail mall development business in the Middle East  and Asia

Al Futtaim  are long-term investors will retain the CMC brand as it has a 65 year good history that will overcome the last two bad years . But they will de-list the company as they believe that being a private company will give them the flexibility to move faster and reclaim customers and brands that have been lost such as Land Rover. 

Interestingly, the opportinuity to buy CMC was presented to them by one of their banks who knew of their interest in Africa. The company then had to work very hard to meet and bring the feuding key shareholders on board to back the buyout.

EDIT Kenya’s competition authority has now approved the acquisition of 100% of CMC Holdings by Al Futtaim Auto

Scania East Africa Limited  have taken over the purchasing, importing, assembling, fitting out, selling, servicing  of trucks, buses and chassis in Kenya that was previously carried out by Kenya Grange Vehicle Industries.

Actis buys 36% of AutoXpress, East Africa’s leading tyre distributor, with 20 stores in Kenya and Rwanda.

Merali and Sameer complete buyout of 14.9% of Firestone’s stake in Sameer Africa.


Banking

CBA returns to Uganda after 47 years.

Fina Bank has changed over its operations in Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda to GTBank East Africa after Guaranty Trust Bank concluded the acquisition of a 70% stake in Fina Bank Group for $100 million through combination of a capital injection and acquisition of shares from Fina Bank shareholders.  

Pakistan’s MCB Bank to acquire Kenya’s Middle East Bank (via the Standard).

Kenya’s  competition authority  has approved the acquisition of 73.35% of Genesis Kenya by Centum Investments.

Letshego Holdings  of Botswana has acquired Micro Uganda, a year after acquiring Micro Africa Ltd of Rwanda.

Food &  Beverage

Art Caffe acquired Dormans increasing their outlets from 4 to to 11 and giving them a presence in more shopping malls like Yaya, Karen and City Mall in Mombasa where Dormans had shops. However the Art Caffe were rankled by a quite in a local newspaper referring to their customers as being upmarket compared to Dorman’s ones. 

EDIT: Kenya’s  competition authority  has now approved the acquisition of 7 coffee shops of Dormans by Art-Caffè.

Pearl Capital partners have invested $1.5 million in KK Fresh Produce. 

Kenya’s  competition authority  has approved  the acquisition of Rafiki Millers  by Tiger Brands.

Kenya’s  competition authority  has approved the acquisition of Magic Oven Limited by Tiger Brands.

Beauty: 

A Netherlands-based private equity fund, TBL Mirror Fund, has bought a minority stake in a high-end Nairobi salon chain that is seeking capital to expand across East Africa.

Advertising: 

Kenya’s  competition authority  has approved the acquisition of additional 16.48% shareholding in Scangroup Limited by Cavendish Square Holdings BV. 

Health: 

Kenya’s  competition authority has excluded the acquisition of 100% of Adcock Ingram Holdings Limited by CFR Inversiones SPA from the Act

Hotels: 

South Africa’s City Lodge acquires Kenya’s Fairview Hotel  after Fairview Hotel firm agreed to sell the outstanding 50% of the joint venture 

Insurance: 

Kenya’s  competition authority has approved the  acquisition of 66.38% of Phoenix of East Africa Assurance Company Limited by Mauritius Union Assurance

British American (BritAM) completes buyout of 99% of Real Insurance.

Oil

Kenya’s  competition authority  has excluded the acquisition of a 55% participating interest in Block 11A from ERHC Energy by CEPSA Kenya

Kenya’s  competition authority  has excluded the acquisition of a 55% interest in Block 2B in Kenya from Lion Petroleum by Premier Oil 

Transport 

Precision Air  of Tanzania seeks a bailout from Kenya Airways? 

Transcentury to reduce stake in Rift Valley Railways (RVR)?


Other
India  Exits

Ambani reports a Kshs 2 billion profit from Kenya real estate.. Ambani’s Reliance Industries in 2007 entered into a joint venture with Delta Corporation, which has developed high-end office blocks and a mid-to-low cost residential estate in Nairobi. Delta Corporation now says it plans to exit its real estate investments to venture into hospitality and gaming businesses. 

Essar to finalise sale of its Kshs 8.5 billion Yu stake in March ..the firm says it needs the Sh8.54 billion immediately and more cash in the short term to widen its footprint in Kenya and upgrade its network from 2G to 3G.

Essar also faces a Kshs 430 million hit in its Kenya oil refinery exit ..the government and Essar Energy Overseas are engaged in compensation talks following the Indian firm’s decision to exit the refinery.

New Deals

Agriculture: At Rea Vipingo, Bid Investments withdrew their offer and have signed up with Vania Investments who are offering a new Kshs 55 per share  bid – worth Kshs 3.3 billion ($39 million) –  for the company that will leave it listed at the NSE

 E-Biz: 

There’s a potential change in ownership, at MyStrawberryStore 

Kenya’s  competition authority  has excluded the  acquisition of 999 Ordinary shares 

of My Kenyan Network Limited by African Jobs as the two have a combined turnover of Kshs 12.6 million

Regulator Issues

Pepsi came to Kenya and took on Coke but have not made much impact. They are now saying that has Coke been unfair ..PepsiCo says that rival bottle has been curtailing its marketing campaigns geared at gaining a larger share of Kenya’s soda market in the complaint to the Competition Authority of Kenya (CAK).
 
Synovate directors risk jail, hefty fines..Competition watchdog asks Tobiko to prosecute Ipsos-Synovate’s chiefs for failure to seek regulatory approval of the firm’s acquisition of its predecessor Synovate.
 
In South Africa The Competition Commission plans to address anti-competitiveness between retailers despite concluding its exclusive lease agreements probe.
The investigation established that the respondents (3 supermarket chains)  were dominant in certain local markets and that they would often compel landlords not to deal with competitors (by entering into exclusive lease agreements with landlords in return for agreeing to ‘anchor’ the centre).

Jobs: Rwanda’s Agaciro Development Fund is seeking an investment office. Deadline is Feb 14.