Monthly Archives: August 2009

Money Transfer in Kenya Evolves

Part 5

Since the last look at mpesa developments in mobile money, there have been another raft of new deployments as Kenya’s two main mobile companies – Safaricom and Zain who have been signing up partners for their respective MPesa and Zap money transfer platforms. Here’s a recap

Banks using M-pesa: Commercial banks have been long whispered to have a lot to fear from m-pesa but I disagree. Yes bank are going to have to step up and use the mobile phone to reach their customers better, and they are in a better position to do this than mobile companies. Mobile money itself is not the sole reason for the loss of relevance of some banking products since fraud, insecurity, transport costs and transaction costs have also contributed e.g. banker’s cheques have been plagued by fraud which means that banks now subject them to the usual 4-day clearing cycle, while landlords and schools now ask clients to deposit funds in their (own) payee accounts and furnish deposit slips as proof of payment.
Banks have gone the option of launching their own mobile applications for their customers including include Barclay’s m-money and these include Barclays, Equity, Family Bank, ABC and others. A few others have gone on to collaborate with mobile companies. Two notable ones are:
1. Consolidated Bank whose customers can transfer money from their bank accounts to m-pesa
2. CFCStanbic whose customers can pay their suppliers by mpesa from their bank accounts: more here

Investor Relations: Pay Dividend payment by mobile phone – last week, Safaricom shareholders approved the payment of dividends from the company to their fellow 830,000 shareholders via m-pesa. This will happen in November 2009.

More corporate partners a glance at Safaricom mpesa list of partners now includes airlines (jetlink, safarilink, east African safari air), micro-finance institutions (Kadet, Kenya women finance trust), media houses (Nation Media Groups to pay for classifieds), KBC, Family TV, , banks (ABC, CFC, Family, Postbank), government agencies (youth enterprise development fund, national hospital insurance fund, higher education loans board) , and several insurance companies and SACCO’s (savings & credit societies)

Airlines last is the airline, because it shows again, the difference between zap and mpesa. Monday’s Nairobi Star had an advert from Jetlink showing that their passengers could now pay for airline tickets by M-pesa– up to the maximum m-pesa limits of Kshs. 35,000 ~$500.

That should have been the end of the airline section, but I was reading the latest issue of African Business magazine which had an interview with Tito Alai where he mentioned that Zain had signed up Coca Cola, and – Kenya Airways (KQ) saying “a passenger can book a KQ ticket online, pay by zap, and check in at airport with his mobile phone” great right? But Kenya Airways have not launched this program – and their customer care told me to only pay by cash or credit card. Kencell/celtel/zap have a history in Kenya of coming up with innovative products, but Safaricom market/apply theirs better. Is this another case with KQ? That the company is up for sale (again) is not a positive sign for development of new partnerships & products. Then on the news of August 24, it was reported that Zain Kenya had launched 3 Zap applications – zap distro (web tool to manage dealerships), zap transact (collect cash from numerous sources direct into bank accounts), zap master pay (ease cash administration – so a company pay up into up to 1,000 zap accounts at a time). Maybe now KQ and Coca Cola will reveal their plans for Zap

User innovations:
But as many innovations as the large corporates come up with for mobile money, the users are the ones who will come up with the innovative, creative ways of adapting them to their lives. Here are a few examples

24 hour M-Pesa had a lunch at a joint that had a rather rude manager, after he spotted me taking a picture. Anyway, many mpesa dealerships tend to close at 5PM, while others like Uchumi (supermarket) can do transactions up to about 8 PM. But now bars, who are open for many more hours e.g. Taidy’s (Nairobi west), are offering 24 hour mpesa banking.

Overcoming challenges Also, while the country is ongoing a power rationing for the next few month, M-Pesa is largely unaffected, as it is not dependent on electricity which the banks are. But M-pesa down time & system outages, agent, and lack of float for several hours a day may compromise its integrity in the eyes of consumers, who may see Zain’s Zap as a reliable back up channel

Money transfer across networks: since their introduction, the mobile companies have been walled in I.e. M-Pesa can only be sent to Safaricom customers, while Zap money to zain users. There have been calls for cross-network transfers to be allowed, with appeals to the regulators (CCK, CBK) to force this to happen. But in this market regulation trails innovation, and this wall has been broken down,- as explained by @Gishungwa “from zain you can send money to Safaricom, it costs the sender 10 shillings, but the recipient pays 30 shilling to withdraw cash and it works well”

Other Uses
harambee (fundraisers) where more money is sometimes raised by m-pesa than from cash collections at the event. This is also safer and money goes direct to the intended recipients
Televangelists: every Sunday morning religious show on TV will have a prominent display of mpesa and zap numbers for viewers to send in cash for prayers
– Others are dowry payments, bar bill payments, petrol payments at fuel stations

Twitter Week: KQ Strike and Equity Profit Dips

Twitter is a micro-blogging tool that is relly nifty for doing mini-posts, forwards and other remarks that (are on any subject) and are maybe not worthy of a full blog post. Here’s a summary of my week on Twitter:

– @coldtusker @kenentrepreneur the tea board of Kenya wishes to remind you that hawking of green tea leaf is
– Signed up too many usgov twitters to keep with #hilaryafrica. Will edit after her trip
– This is a good time for generator and diesel sale companies. I think there was a tax break for generator sales mentioned in uhuru’s June budget speech. No power last night, or this afternoon: will ignore the power ration schedule as a work of fiction KPLC. As bad as Nairobians complain about #KPLC the water crisis is of more concern
– R/T @shiroh the Stanchart diva trip is such a deal. $1,000 for 5 (shopping) days in South Africa for Ladies (incl, flights, hotels)
Ethiopian Airlines net profit was $118 million, revenue up 33% with new airbus & Boeing orders pending. R/T @Jellyfish78 Kenya Airways vs. Ethiopian Air on Youtube is an informative but nasty spat http://bit.ly/13N34f and http://bit.ly/CM7Np. Also Ethiopian Air to fly Addis-Mombasa (via Kilimanjaro) http://bit.ly/OHsGq
– Diasporans giving up on Kenya http://bit.ly/K78g7
– Tahidi High tackles the mystery of paraffin in high school food
– On CitizenTV Delamere family shot live video in court and in jail. How? Still it’s a good spot light on the archaic judiciary. Delamere’s say Kenyatta family owns their dairy now while neighbours want to grab their 56 000 acre farm. Tom delamere testimony live – shot two dogs with two shots and denies he shot the man who died. How did ‘top lawyer’ tom ojiambo allow this?
– R/T @milonare Impunity starts with you, remember that when you cut in traffic and feel nothing. We reflect our leaders #fractals #Kenya
Barclays Kenya raising credit card rates to 3.0% (up from 2.5%) from next month
– r/t @mainat Banks have reduced lending not because of interest rates but poor prospects of recovering loans in an economy that has stalled
– @rookieKE if you bank with consolidated, you can transfer cash from A/C to Mpesa using your phone
– You can get to the top of KICC Nairobi for $2 http://www.mamamikes.com/bl… (Though I believe Times Tower is higher)
– r/t @highwayafrica09 Call for Nominations – SABC-Highway Africa New Media Awards. See http://highwayafrica.com
– R/T @LarryMadowo FYI Equity Bank H1 PBT down 15% on one-off transaction last yr related 2 Safaricom IPO, Q2 profits up 25%
– Blog job: write about blogging, social networking & social media from Asia, MidEast and African countries http://tinyurl.com/ljxmcp
– R/T @kachwanya TEAMs shareholders seem to be the confused – there is no onward connectivity between Europe and Dubai, where TEAMS ends!
– Kenya stockbrokers association (KASIB) launched investor education handbook today http://www.kasib.co.ke/
– So @kachwanya @kainvestor, Nairobi City Council earns 14sh ($0.2) for every flyer tossed out of a car window?
– R/T @alykhansatchu #Kenya new 234 item price basket will track mobile-#cellular and computers charges & #camel meat #inflation
– So many aviation colleges in Nairobi with unemployed graduates, these (striking)@kenyaairways workers should know this
– Spent 15min at Nakumatt queue while some afro-diplomats paid for groceries with us $. Their exchange rate is KES72 =$
– COTU’s Francis Atwoli is going to brag about ending the #KQ strike, and coming through for workers.

Express Kenya 2009 AGM

The annual general meeting of Express Kenya was held on August 7, 2009, at the Norfolk Hotel.

The transport company had a decline in sales to Kshs 803 million (~$11 million) (down from Kshs 922 million in 2008) and its four-year profit streak was snapped as it lost Kshs 53 million ($700,000) before tax, down from a profit of Kshs 112 million the year before.

A presentation was given by the Express Kenya CEO as well as the Transport Manager which noted that 2008 was a year marked by post-election violence (PEV) which saw revenue decline by 13% (as they could not deliver to key contract routes in Western Kenya), fuel prices rose by 27%, and the company suffered some PEV vehicle damage which insurance companies have not compensated (insurance co’s don’t cover political risk).

2009 outlook: They noted that in the half-year of 2009, sales and profits are ahead of budget; the company has undertaken efficiency measures including installation of vehicle fleet management & tracking system, outsourcing of some services, investment in new vehicles to support contracts, increase in warehouse utilization etc. By year-end, they project to have a profit which will be distributed as follows: to pay down overdraft (31%), new investments (29%), dividend (25%) and cash flow (15%)

Shareholder Q&A: Most of the questions asked related not on (lack of) dividends this time. Shareholders seemed to accept that the loss was justified by the election events and were convinced of the management and board explanations and improvements made since.

Hot button issue: The company entered into the murky Nairobi city bus transport system through deals with two companies’ – Citi Hoppa and Kenya Bus Services, and shareholders asked over half dozen about the investments.

Safeguard Bus Investment:

  • How many buses? Express have 40 buses now that are shared among the two companies, each on the same terms. Other towns like Kisumu and Mombasa have requested Express to also launch similar investments there.
  • Are they profitable? Last year was trial; this year is performing better than expected – with good profits for the company. Express gets a guaranteed minimum daily income from each of their vehicles; anything above that and the management company gets a bonus. Money is banked into Express accounts every other day and this is closely monitored. In future, they plan to have swipe cards and pre-pay systems that will better enhance revenue collection.
  • Express is now the largest single vehicle owner in the Citi Hoppa franchise.
  • Since it has succeeded when will they branch out on their own? The Government has only licensed 3 transporters in Nairobi which probably requires 200-300 buses, so they have to work with Citi Hoppa, Kenya Bus or 2M. When the time is right, they may apply for their own license, but also they recognize that they (Express) don’t have the management team to run an independent fleet now.

Fleet Management & Maintenance: 

  • Express buses operate routes only within Nairobi, and only on specific routes e.g. 46 that have few potholes and where they can do many trips with their relatively new fleet. This also means lower insurance rates.
  • Bus maintenance by who? The vehicles are part of a complex partnership with Ashok Leyland. Express rents space to the dealer who also does all the bus maintenance at their yard. In exchange, Express get all the clearing business and bonded warehousing for the dealer.
  • One shareholder warned them they were dealing with someone (Juja MP George Thuo) who ran down KBS and built Citi Hoppa with the bounty. CEO said they did their due diligence at Citi Hoppa, and the buses, under the management of (Mrs.) Judy Thuo, are doing very well, even better than the KBS.

Other Q&A

Anchor shareholder commitment? Investor Chami questioned the direction of the company, the commitment of the main shareholder, lending by a director, building purchase by the company, and asked what/if the anchor shareholder, (who’s also CEO), pulled out of the company?

  • CEO (Hector Diniz) replied that the loan to the company (Kshs 205 million) is at 6% whereas a bank would have charged 18%. The anchor shareholders have built up the company since they took over 5 years ago, transforming it from being worth Kshs 200 million to over Kshs 1 billion while producing profits from day one (and would have done so in 2008 if not for PEV and fuel prices).
  • In the new building, Express Kenya owns 49%, while the Diniz group will have 51% and are sharing the opportunity and profit with shareholders (the building will cost Express Kshs 488 million).
  • The CEO said he is proud of results – shareholder numbers have increased from 1,500 when they took over to 4,200 now, and the current share price of the company at Kshs ~9 is not a true reflection of the company’s worth which he said is Kshs 20+. He added that once Safaricom lifts market, the true market value of Express will show.
  • He told off Chami that if he sold his shares, Chami could also sell his or look for another anchor shareholder.

Big Contract lost? When a shareholder asked if Express had lost a lucrative contract to distribute beer for Kenya Breweries, directors said they have not lost the Kenya Breweries distribution contract in the 5 years they have been in charge. They briefly lost distribution in Central Kenya, but have now got it back. They also do Western Kenya (which was affected by PEV in 2008), have got 100% distribution for Alvaro (for which they will procure new small trucks), 100% for UDV (spirits) and for delivery of KBL products to AFCO (Kenya army) stores.

Director Elections: at the onset of the meeting chairman, Dr. Chris Obura, corrected the notice of the meeting which had stated that three directors (including himself) were up for re-election (the printer had repeated last years notice). So as a result only one director was up for re-election – and Mr. Moskovic was re-elected

Goodies: One shareholder made a loud appeal for SWAG (there was none), saying the previous year they had got shopping vouchers and his family would ask “what has Express Kenya given you – to show patriotism to the company?” After the AGM, tea and sandwiches were served outside the meeting hall, but that turned into a free for all grabbing match – when will companies ever learn?

KPLC is not good: There was a delay of 15 minutes as the meeting started because the electricity cut out, and the Norfolk generator took another quarter-hour to kick in.

NSE Portfolio August 2009

Market picking up steadily since last quarterly review in May 2009

The stable


Diamond Trust ↑
Kenya Airways ↑
KCB ↑
Safaricom ↑
Scangroup ↑
Stanbic (Uganda) ↑

Review:
– Best performer: Safaricom up 34% this quarter
– Worst performer KCB up 5%
– In: none
– Out: none
– Increase none
– Decrease none
– Unexpected gains/losses: KQ record loss, safaricom profit drop

Events & Outlook:
– Performance: The Portfolio is up 12% in the last three months while the NSE Index is up 14%. I’d like to think I’m doing better, but Safaricom has lifted the index to a greater extent than my portfolio (8% weight). Safaricom largest weight on the NSE, is also probably now the country’s largest tax payer, largest retail ISP, seller of mobile phones, mover of retail money etc.
– got dividends from all the banks, which are experiencing a slowdown in growth in 2009. Dividend included Stanbic Uganda but will have to increase shares there to minimize impact of clearing foreign cheques so that it does not eat ¼ of
– Looking forward to dividends from Safaricom (but no SWAG ) from Safaricom and another from Kenya Airways (despite their making a massive fuel hedge loss)
Privatization The Kenya Government has lined up several companies that may be availed later in 2009, however these may not be listed until the market picks up sufficiently. Will look at Family Bank and KWAL (Kenya Wine Agencies)
New media: The Nairobi Stock Exchangem – @NSEKenya is now on Twitter, while the CDSC launched a new web site to enable investors to better track their portfolios.