Monthly Archives: December 2008

Kutwa Tuesday: December 31 2008

1. Yes it’s Wednesday
2. this is the final post for 2008
3. Happy New Year
4. Welcome first time readers searching online for primary school exam (KCPE) results. This is a blog on finance and investment issues in Kenya mainly
5. stories you may have missed in December 2008

– National Oil Corporation NOCK will borrow $65 million from French Bank PNB Paribas
Triton Petrol (now under receivership) has left several local and international banks exposed to bad loans. They were also partners of Reliance (India) in the second national Operator contract
– From January 2009 Kenyans can buy government bonds and bills for just Kshs. 100,000 (~$1,300) through the Central bank of Kenya. The next bill auctions are on 5th January for bills while bond are on 26th January. one must open a CDS account with the CBK (currently they hold 4,222 accounts that trade in GoK securities) more details here
– The CBK also released a report on commercial banks readiness and compliances with Basel II requirements
New branches Banks opening new branches in December were National bank of Kenya (Kakamega, Eldoret airport, Embu, Ongata rongai), Bank of Baroda (Nakuru) and CFC Stanbic (Kisumu, Westlands – Westgate)
Dyer & Blair Investment Bank will arrange a fund raising plan for TransCentury, one of Kenya’s leading Private Equity firms
Standard Chartered expected to roll out a mobile banking platform in 2009 in Kenya for funds transfer, utility payments etc. (already operational in Uganda)
Uchumi made a payment to debenture holders in December, can it re-list at the Nairobi stock exchange in 2009?
– Co-Op Bank shares began trading at the NSE – but mini bounce on day one was not sustainable

from the blogs
– Kshs. 2.5 billion worth of Equity shares trade hands in a surprisingtrade yesterday
– NIC Kenya’s leader in asset finance, but more retail and corporate has ventured into Tanzania acquiring 51% of S&F Bank – more here
– Want to buy goods online, but you don’t have a credit card – read up on Afripay – a local company that offers that service in Nairobi
– Why is it so hard for foreign (German) companies to invest in Tanzania?
– While Pirate terrorize the east African Coastline, what should be Kenya’s flagship navy vessel is rotting away in Europe.

Bank’s Need to Embrace MPesa

banks need to adapt to M-pesa, not fight it

A recent Nairobi Star story links banks to m-pesa probe in an underhand move to stifle the growth of mobile company Safaricom’s money transfer service – M-Pesa.

How much growth? As a recent article put it four million Kenyans can’t be wrong in reference to those who have signed up for the M-pesa and which the company recently stated to be clocking up to 10,000 new registrations per day!

Here’s why:

1. It makes sense and that’s all the law it needs Is it illegal and does it need more legislation? The answers are probably not and yes. Probably Not – because you can’t legislate everything, more so the simple payment of cash from person A to person B – whether a prostitute or a priest. And Yes, M-pesa agents need to beef up security, systems and training of staff as its popularity grows.

But the argument that M-pesa will be used for money laundering or other crimes is laughable – who launders less than $500? (Kshs. 35,000 is the maximum transaction amount on m-pesa) You are more apt to find a transfer of Kshs. 35 million at a bank – and banks were themselves used to prop up the numerous local pyramid schemes before they all imploded.

2. M-Pesa is affordable banking: Is it unfair? What’s to stop a bank from operating branch-less accounts? Several small banks have 1 – 3 branches and can comfortably and profitably serve their customers. Most Kenyan banks still don’t want to serve the unbanked and M-pesa has evolved because banking is still too expensive for the masses. There’s Mzansi in South Africa and in the absence of a similar program, Kenyan masses have created their own Mzansi in M-pesa. It is not Safaricom’s fault that they are so popular – take away m-pesa and people will go back to stuffing cash in tins, rolling them in blankets and mailing them in cartons on buses. They will not go back to open new banks accounts or queue at western union.

3. M-pesa is better than banks in some functions: Two scenarios
– Having a bank account is of no use sometimes, as one executive told me. She may be in Malindi looking to hook up Flavio Briatore or find Obama’s village (Nyangoma – not Kogelo) – her bank account is in Westlands (Nairobi) she has no way of reaching that money (avoid credit cards) – but her bank has no presence in many parts of the country, but from where she can access M-Pesa
– I received a small cheque payment of Kshs. 10,000 shillings ($130) that I deposited in my bank account on 19th December – today it’s 10 days later and the cheque has not cleared – reason is that four working days have not elapsed – (banks don’t count weekend or holidays – thought they work six days a week). What the banks does – transferring money from a creditor to a debtor (me) is no different than what M-pesa is doing. But with access to the same technology and similar resources, M-pesa takes 3 minutes, while the bank system takes 10 days.

4. M-Pesa is going to get more mainstream: More corporations are embracing the cost cutting and simplicity of M-Pesa. You can now pay for satellite TV (GTV), some insurance plans, and mutual funds (Old Mutual) by M-pesa. Next up will probably be two large companies that are in dire need of a cheaper alternative of money transfers
– Safaricom with its 800,000 new shareholders will probably have to pay a dividend next year. The use of text messages/e-mail and M-pesa will save the company millions of shillings that would be spent on printing, postage and cheque processing charges
– Kenya power & lighting company; as KPLC takes electricity to thousands of new customers in rural Kenya and inner cities, it has a dire need for cash collection points. It has used the banking system and the post office (paying an average Kshs. 30/= for each payment), but M-pesa would be a cheaper (for them) and more convenient option (for distant customers) who can also have been alerted by SMS on how much to pay.
– Also microfinance institutions (and shylocks) – who make small loans, for short periods of time. The sooner they can transfer funds, the clock is ticking, and their customer can access funds immediately and pay them back at the last minute without each having to wait for cheques to clear. M-pesa fits into the last minute thinking of many Kenyans – who tend to wait till the last minute to do many things including payment of electricity bills!

Banks need to change and embrace M-Pesa as it is able to do some things they can’t or won’t do. e.g. The lady in scenario one has a relationship officer at her bank, who can move her funds from one account to another – why not also enable her to M-pesa the next Ms. Briatorie her money? This can be an extra service from bank from which they can earn some income, instead of opening a branch in Malindi?

They should take a cue from other players such as

– Pesa point (ATM network) who may be losing some business to M-pesa but have now have embraced and partnered with them so that customers can withdraw cash from M-pesa 24 hours a day at any of their Pesa Point ATM
– Western union whose local money transfer system may have been eroded by M-pesa will now be the international arm for remittances through Safaricom’s M-Pesa
– Banks like Housing Finance and Family Bank already process M-pesa payments for their customers.

FYI
1. Are you a heavy M-Pesa user? Did you know you can get a statement of your M-Pesa transactions – a statement of the last three months costs Kshs. 500 from Safaricom, which is about what many banks charge for interim/instant statements
2. Want to become an M-Pesa agent?
3. Other interesting recent posts about M-Pesa.

Why I blog about Africa

Was tagged by Mweshi my brother from TED Africa on why I blog about Africa

It’s about telling my story. No one else can tell it, I can’t even tell it myself

I am uniquely privileged and challenged and I have access to opportunities and difficulties that constrain me. This is my record of life in Africa, a land of challenges and of opportunities, and I try and tell about both, but with an emphasis on the opportunities for an ex-Diasporan.

I have spreadsheets, annual reports, statements and certificates, but they are static; this blog gives life and flesh to those numbers and papers.

Finally this is my diary, my record of important events – about me and my business world & economy, the blog simply helps me keep track.

Finally, it has opened up a whole world of opportunities, some small material gain but more of the networking kind and opportunities and new friends – and I hereby extend the tag to fellow financial bloggers – Coldtusker, Terry Anne, Ka-Investor, Fintrade Capital, MainaT, Kenyanentrepreneur, and Maishinski.

Happy Holidays

2008 Kenya Bank Review

What happened in 2008?
See also half year. (who?, what? means no news of note)

ABC: (25) who?, what?
Bank of Africa: (18) Quiet expansion becoming big in asset finance and the bank of choice for French interests, with a new club for small business owners
Barclays: (2) steadying their 2007 rapid growth and expansion in the retail sector, launched two tranches of bonds at affordable prices which made CBK notice and will go into mobile messaging next year
Baroda: (14) Going retail, and opened new branches, no longer playing safe and investing less in GoK securities
CFC Stanbic: (4) merger (takeover) by Stanbic formalized. Collapse of small brokers a boon as they are seen as being safe(r). Will open branches and may need to raise capital next year. Note: If the merger had been planned this year (instead of last) it would have cost ½ as much
Chase (22) one of the fastest growing banks in ’08, ventured into stockbrokerage, but may need to raise capital next year
Citibank Kenya: (8) best return on assets in sector, but with aggressive off balance sheet. Still unclear how much parent troubles will impact subsidiaries in Africa.
City Finance: (43) the country’s smallest bank effected a capital reduction. New owners yet to settle in, but may achieve a slight profit this year
Commercial Bank of Africa: (7) would be a beneficiary of American business interests following Citi bank woes, if it didn’t also own 1/3 of equally troubled AIG Kenya. Also CEO got caught up in Uchumi corruption case and may need capital next year.
Consolidated: (31). Cabinet has approved sale for next year and the deposit protection fund has always planned to exit. 2008 will mark the third year of (modest) profits for the bank, so its eligible for an NSE listing or IPO
Cooperative: (5) went ahead with an IPO and NSE listing late in 2008 in a difficult market to raise capital for expansion
Credit: (35) who?, what?
Development Bank of Kenya: (26) in play next year as GoK (ICDC owns 90%)plans to sell shares in the development finance institution to the public or private investors
Diamond Trust: (11) continued regional expansion with more investments in Uganda and Burundi, and also had a second rights issue to raise capital.
Dubai (42) quiet year, will make a loss
Ecobank: (19) arrived in Kenya big and are setting up retail presence (nairumor that they are the bank Equity emulated to succeed). Came up short in a (huge) pan-African capital raising move, but plan to enter stockbroking next year
Equatorial: (30) activated investment banking wing, but denied they were being sold to Libyan investors
Equity: (6) stellar growth continued though January ’08 showed an exposure to political undercurrents. Bounced back with branches in Nyanza, agricultural products and participation in the Safaricom IPO. Bought a Ugandan bank and are investing in S. Sudan in a diversification move they hope to take their model (bankign the unbanked) to more African countries.
Family Bank: (20) quiet year, but income tripled in ’08 and new CEO was confirmed
Fidelity: (33) who?, what?
Fina: (21) the Rwanda turf was invaded by a host of other Kenyan banks led by KCB. Continued a much heralded focus on SME‘s and expanded into Uganda.
First Community: (40) the second Shariah bank got off to a much quieter start than Gulf and will record a major loss this year from setting up operations.
Giro: (27) who?, what?
Guardian: (28) who?, what?
Gulf African: (36) new Shariah bank seems to be well received and respected by business people. Opened several branches and will also assist the GoK youth fund with loan products, but will make a loss this year from start-up costs.
Habib AG Zurich (24) who?, what?
Habib Bank (34) who?, what?
Housing Finance: (15) had a fully subscribed (just) rights issue that raised Kshs. 2.4 billion and Equity Bank now own ¼ of the institution.
Imperial (16) who? what?
India (17) who?, what?
I&M (12) new formal name for the former investment & mortgages bank, also got new shareholder capital (two euro dev banks) and opened new branches
KCB (1) Kenya’s top bank this year had another rights issue, rebranding and supported expansion to Uganda, Tanzania, South Sudan in addition to being cross-listed.
K-Rep: (23) surprising loss will be recorded as it appears the post election violence impact small enterprises they financed.
Middle East: (38) who?, what?
National Bank of Kenya: (9) went big in the Safaricom IPO (and to a lesser extent with Co-Op). Some activity expected nest year as the government and perhaps NSSF shares may be in play for a strategic investor now that their balance sheet is largely cleaned up
NIC (10): rebranded again this year, phasing out MOVE and establishing new branches as a one-stop shop for corporate, asset finance, investment banking (acquired Solid Stockbrokers) needs.
Oriental: (41) former Delphis bank should have an operating profit this year
Paramount Universal: (39) who?, what?
Prime: (13) a year of rapid growth for this bank, big with Asian business owners, but may need to raise matching capital next year
Southern Credit: (29) who?, what?
Standard Chartered: (3)steady, least aggressive of the big banks in Kenya went after the retail crowd this year with personal loans, cards and youth accounts. Will launch mobile app next year
Transnational (37) who?, what?
Victoria: (32) who?, what?

Major Stories
1. CBK eternally optimistic governor, lowered bond prices, lowered cash ratio and – but statistical /economic forecasts called into question, and mired in sale of the Grand Regency Hotel
2. Safaricom the bane of banking sector was M-pesa and the company’s IPO
3. Capital raising: through right issues, private placements and IPO (Co-Op) more are expected

Coming soon
banks expected in 2009
– UBA
– Faulu or KWFT

Co-Op IPO Aftermath

A formal statement is out today after Monday’s press conference where the bank’s management revealed that through their 2008 IPO, Co-op Bank had raised Kshs. 5.4 billion (~$77 million) but short of a revised target of Kshs 6.7 billion as 66,576 shareholders bought 546 million shares. The Business Dailyreports the shares will be allocated 60% to individual investors (340.5 million shares) , 30% to institutions (171 m shares ) and staff will get 9% (52.6 m shares)

Capital raising: the offer was not underwritten (by D&B winnerbest lead transaction advisor and best investment bank), but despite the shortfall, what was raised should be enough for a few years. Co-op’s capital adequacy goes from 9% to about 18%, which is not bad [10 billion would have taken to this to 22%]

Other banks that have been reported to have engaged in recent private capital raising include K-Rep and Southern Credit while others who may need to tap shareholders next year could Chase, CBA, CFC Stanbic and even KCB (for the third time in five years?)

Glass Half Full: Though Co-op had initially set out to raise Kshs 10 billion, their listing came at a tough time and was not received as enthusiastically as past IPO’s. Still it had some positives but came in a tough market before the target was revised down, but has some positives

– For the bank: 66,000 shareholders is a manageable register , and since they did a lot of the placement and receiving work in house, the IPO was not as costly as others (budgeted at Kshs. 248 million)
– For new shareholders: no refunds to queue for, and for once a 100% allocation
– For other serious investors, a brief return to sanity as the IPO speculators with their borrowed funds kept away – Co-op was the fall guy that injected some reality back into IPO process and share investments.

2009 IPO’s: Next year could see the entry of Nakumatt supermarkets, bread maker a DPL and others from the private sector.

From the public sector (Government side) comes a series of planned privatizations a few of which could be IPO candidates to assist the Government in fund-raising:

Top of my my wish list is Kenya Pipeline, whose much improved governance saw a consortium of banks line up this month to offer the company funds for expansion (a few years ago KPC was using dubious financial intermediaries) and Kenya Wine Agencies. In addition, more shares of Kengen East African Portland Cement Company and National Bank will be sold to the public.

Other non-IPO candidates will be targeted at strategic partners [for Kenya Ports Authority- and TEAMS (submarine cable)] while private investors may be sought to invest in the sugar companies [Chemelil, Sony, Nzoia, Miwani, Muhoroni] hotels of Kenya Tourism Development Corporation, banks [Consolidated Bank, Development Bank of Kenya] and food processors [Kenya Meat Commission, New Kenya Co-operative Creameries]